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Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone. 

Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.

Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.

Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.

Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.

“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of airstrike casualties.

“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”

Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding

Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.

Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.

Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.

“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.

“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”

Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.

Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
Image:
Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies

In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.

A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.

Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.

The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.

In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.

The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.

‘There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers’

In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.

“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.

“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”

In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.

In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.

In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.

“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.

Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.

Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. Source: @Gredtoo
Image:
Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo

“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.

Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”

Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.

The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.

“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.

“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”

The real number could be higher

Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.

Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.

The UN says that 72 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.58% of the total.

That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.

Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.

“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.

“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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‘If someone took Trump’s land, how would he feel?’ – Ukrainians view peace talks with suspicion

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'If someone took Trump's land, how would he feel?' - Ukrainians view peace talks with suspicion

A Ukrainian farmer-turned-soldier in the Donbas has a message for Donald Trump as the US president attempts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

Anatolii, 59, said: “If someone took a piece of his territory, what would he say to that? The same goes for us.”

Like many Ukrainians, the serviceman volunteered to join a territorial defence unit when Russia launched its full-scale war almost four years ago.

He has been fighting ever since, but will have the option to quit next year once he turns 60.

Anatolii and a colleague
Image:
Anatolii and a colleague

Unable to wear body armour anymore because of its weight, Anatolii now operates further back from the frontline in a small workshop on the outskirts of the city of Kramatorsk where he helps to fix and improve the performance of drones – a crucial weapon on the battlefield.

“I want this war to finally end,” he said. “I want to go home, to my family, to my land.”

But not at any price.

More on Ukraine

He and other soldiers in 107 Brigade of Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Force view Mr Trump’s efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with suspicion.

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Peace deal: Russia ‘in no mood to compromise’.

An initial proposal envisaged the Ukrainian government giving up Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions that make up the Donbas, to Russia.

This includes large swathes of land that are still under Ukraine’s control, and that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives fighting to defend.

“I feel negative about it,” Anatolii said, referring to the proposal.

“So many people already fell for this land … How can we give away our land? It would be like someone comes to my house and says: ‘Give me a piece of your home.'”

However, he added: “I understand, we have nothing to take it back with. Maybe through some political means…

“I do not want more people to fall, more people to die. I want politicians to somehow come to terms.”

A short drive away from the workshop is a hidden bomb factory where other soldiers from the same unit are focused on a different kind of war effort.

Surrounded by 3D printed gadgets, metal ball bearings and plastic explosives, they make improvised bombs, including anti-personnel mines and devices that can be fitted onto one-way attack drones and exploded onto targets.

Vadym, 41, is in charge of the production line.

He has been fighting since Russian President Vladimir Putin first attacked eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Vadym
Image:
Vadym

Asked whether he felt tired, he said: “We are always tired, we have no motivation as such, but there is the understanding that the enemy will keep coming as long as we do not stop him. If we stop fighting, our children and grandchildren will fight. That keeps us going.”

Vadym is also against simply handing over Ukrainian land to Russia.

“If we now give away borders, give away Donbas, then what?” he said.

“Any country can come to any other country and say: This is our land. Let’s coordinate, do business, and keep living as before. That is not normal in my view.”

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The Ukrainian president says ‘everyone must be on this side of peace’

The city of Kramatorsk stands testament to Ukraine’s will to fight, remaining firmly in Ukrainian hands, though Russia’s war is inching closer.

Nets stretched like a tunnel line a main road leading into the city to protect vehicles from the threat of small, killer drones.

Coils of barbed wire are also strung across fields around the outskirts of Kramatorsk along with other fortifications such as mounds of dirt and triangular lumps of concrete.

Many civilians have remained here as well as the nearby city of Slovyansk, even as other landmark sites such as Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka have fallen.

Yet the toll of living in a warzone is clear.

Stallholders swept away rubble and broken glass on Sunday after a Russian missile smashed into a central market in Kramatorsk on Saturday night.

Some, like Ella, 60, even chose to reopen despite the carnage.

“It’s frightening. We need to earn a living. I have my mother, I need to look after her, help my children. So we do what we have to do,” she said.

Her adult children live in Kyiv and want her to leave, but Kramatorsk is her home.

“We’ve been living like this for four years now. We’re so used to it. A drone flies overhead and we keep working,” she said.

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Is the UK prepared to fight a war?

Asked how she felt about what the war had done to her city, Ella’s voice wobbled and she wiped tears from her eyes.

“We keep it all inside, but it still hurts. It’s frightening and painful. I just want things as they used to be. We don’t want anything here to change,” she said.

As for what she would do if a future peace deal forced Ukraine to surrender the area, Ella said: “That’s a hard question … I wouldn’t stay. I’d leave.”

Production by security and defence producer Katy Scholes, Ukraine producer Azad Safarov, camera operator Mostyn Pryce

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‘No one helped us’: The community left in a mass of mud and loss after cyclone

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'No one helped us': The community left in a mass of mud and loss after cyclone

This community in Sri Lanka’s Kandy District is a mass of mud and loss.

The narrow, filthy streets in Gampola are filled with broken furniture, sodden toys and soiled mattresses. A torrent of floodwater ripped through this neighbourhood and many people had no time to escape.

Trying to reach their now destroyed homes is like wading through treacle – the mud knee-deep.

Many locals say they were not warned about the threat Cyclone Ditwah posed here before it struck last Friday, and weren’t told to evacuate. They say they’ve received very little help since.

Resourceful neighbours were left to try to help rescue survivors. But some had to carry the bodies of the dead, too. Mohamed Fairoos was one of them.

Fairoos Mohamed
Image:
Fairoos Mohamed

“We took five bodies from here,” he says, gesturing to a house full of debris, where mattresses hang drying over the balcony.

“We took nine bodies in total and handed them over to the hospital.” He appears both shocked and exasperated at the lack of support this community received.

The house where Fairoos pulled the bodies from
Image:
The house where Fairoos pulled the bodies from

“When I took the bodies, the police, the navy, no one sent for us.” He tells me he even posted a video online appealing for boats, hoping it might help.

I ask him if he thinks the government has done enough. “No,” he says forcefully. “No one called for us. No one helped us. No one gave us any boats.”

Read more: Families count the cost of devastating floods

Kumudu Wijekon and her husband Kumar Premachandra
Image:
Kumudu Wijekon and her husband Kumar Premachandra

‘Five people were killed here’

Just a few doors down, a group of volunteers have come to clear another home filled with floodwater. “Five people were killed here,” one of them tells me.

Five of them came from one family: a mother, father, their two daughters and son. Kumudu Wijekon tells me she was friends with them and they’d fled here to a friend’s house, hoping to escape the threat.

“There was heavy rain, but they didn’t think there would be flooding. They left their own home to save themselves from landslides. If they had stayed, they would have survived.”

Chamilaka Dilrukshi
Image:
Chamilaka Dilrukshi

‘We don’t have a single rupee’

A short drive away, Chamilaka Dilrukshi is sobbing inside the photography studio she shares with her husband Ananda. They have two children aged four and 11.

Chamilaka is clutching a bag of rice – she says it’s been donated by a friend and it’s all they have to eat.

Ananda Wijebandara and his wife Chamilaka Dilrukshi
Image:
Ananda Wijebandara and his wife Chamilaka Dilrukshi

Everything in the shop is wrecked – expensive cameras and lighting equipment covered in thick layers of mud, and outside, rows of broken frames and ripped pictures.

They think they’ve lost nearly £2,500 and their home is severely damaged. She weeps as she tells us: “We don’t have a single rupee to start our business again. We spent all of our savings on trying to build our house.”

Like Mohamed, she believed they should have been warned. “We didn’t know anything. If we did, we would have taken our cameras and our computers out. We just didn’t know it was coming.”

The studio was caked in mud
Image:
The studio was caked in mud

Anger at government’s perceived failings

Sri Lankan president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declared a state of emergency to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone, and international aid has arrived.

But many people are angry at the government’s perceived failings. It’s been criticised for not taking the warnings from meteorologists seriously two weeks before the cyclone made landfall, as well as for not communicating enough messages in the Tamil language.

It is going to take places like Gampola a long time to rebuild, repair and restore trust. And in a country still recovering from an economic collapse, nothing is guaranteed.

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Why Putin won’t agree to latest Ukraine peace plan

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Why Putin won't agree to latest Ukraine peace plan

The Americans were given the full VIP treatment on their visit to Moscow. 

There was a motorcade from the airport, lunch at a Michelin-starred restaurant, and even a stroll around Red Square.

It felt like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were on more of a tourist trail than the path to peace.

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Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow

They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.

According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.

The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.

But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.

Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Image:
Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic

Putin thinks he’s winning…

Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.

It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.

It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.

Read more:
Michael Clarke answers your Ukraine war questions
‘Thousands’ of Westerners applying to live in Russia

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‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’

…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned

The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.

It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.

With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.

As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.

It all gives the impression that when it comes to Russia, the US prefers to placate rather than pressure.

According to the Kremlin, both Russia and the US have agreed not to disclose the details of yesterday’s talks in Moscow.

I doubt Volodymyr Zelenskyy is filled with hope.

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