The selection committee ranked Ohio State No. 1, with the Buckeyes having the best chance to make the CFP at 79%, per the predictor. The committee had Georgia at No. 2, followed by Michigan and Florida State. The predictor, on the other hand, gives Florida State the second-best chance at 68%, followed by Michigan (50%) and Georgia (41%).
Let’s take a closer look at each conference:
Big 12
• After its loss to Kansas in Week 9, Oklahoma went from a 64% chance to make the playoff to a 28% chance. ESPN Analytics gives the Sooners a 33% chance to win out (including the Big 12 title game). The Allstate Playoff Predictor would give a one-loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma an 80% chance to make the CFP.
• Currently, there is a 47% chance OU and Texas have a rematch in the Big 12 title game. If each team wins this weekend, that chance jumps to 79%.
• Saturday’s Kansas State-Texas matchup (noon ET, FOX) is the Big 12’s highest-leverage game remaining.
• Most likely conference champion matchup: Oklahoma-Texas (47% chance of matchup)
SEC
• The SEC has four teams with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor: Georgia (41%), Alabama (29%), Ole Miss (6%) and LSU (5%).
• Georgia is one of five remaining undefeated Power 5 teams, but the Bulldogs rank behind three one-loss teams in strength of record. That should change down the stretch; Georgia’s strength of schedule ranks 100th in FBS through eight games, but the Bulldogs face the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation the rest of the way.
• LSU at Alabama (7:45 p.m. ET, CBS) is the highest playoff leverage game of the week and third highest for the remainder of the season (Ohio State-Michigan, Michigan-Penn State). The Tide have only missed the playoff twice since its inception, finishing 5th in last season’s rankings and 13th in the final rankings of 2019.
• LSU-Bama is one of the four remaining regular-season games between teams that both have at least a 5% chance to make the CFP (Michigan-Penn State, Michigan-Ohio State, Georgia-Ole Miss).
• Most likely conference championship matchup: Alabama-Georgia (63%)
Big Ten
• Ohio State has a 79% chance to make the CFP, a 47% chance to make the title game and a 28% chance to win the championship.
• Michigan’s strength of record currently ranks ninth, but the Wolverines have the toughest remaining schedule in FBS, according to ESPN Analytics.
• The Big Ten has a 44% chance to get at least two teams into the CFP.
• Most likely conference championship matchup: Iowa-Ohio State (23%)
Pac-12
• Saturday’s Washington-USC (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) contest is the highest-leverage game remaining in the Pac-12.
• After winning at Utah last week, Oregon moved up six spots in FPI and doubled its CFP chances (14% to 28%).
• Most likely conference championship matchup: Oregon-Washington (51%)
ACC
• Florida State has a 53% chance to win out (including the ACC championship game), the second-highest chance behind Notre Dame (60%).
• The Seminoles currently have a 68% chance to make the playoff, second only to Ohio State (79%).
• Most likely conference championship matchup: Florida State-Louisville (70%)
CHICAGO — Defenseman Matt Grzelcyk has made the Chicago Blackhawks, agreeing to a $1 million, one-year contract with the team.
Chicago announced the deal on Sunday. Grzelcyk had been with the team in training camp on a personal tryout agreement.
The Blackhawks visit the Florida Panthers for their season opener Tuesday.
The 31-year-old Grzelcyk had one goal and a career-high 39 assists in 82 games for Pittsburgh last season. He also set a career high with a team-leading 101 blocked shots.
Grzelcyk, a Massachusetts native, was selected by Boston in the third round of the 2012 NHL draft. He had 25 goals and 110 assists in 445 games for the Bruins over eight seasons.
Niko Mikkola had an assist on a goal that gave the Florida Panthers an 8-0 lead. Problem was, he had been kicked out of the game a few minutes earlier and nobody noticed.
Florida defeated Tampa Bay 7-0 in the preseason finale for both clubs Saturday night, though the score was irrelevant. There were 65 penalties for 312 minutes on the stat sheet, including 13 game misconduct penalties — seven for Tampa Bay, six for Florida. The penalty count kept rising after the game, as officials were making sure everything that was called got logged.
“I have no idea,” Florida coach Paul Maurice said, when asked what message Tampa Bay was trying to send with its style of play. “I’m not worried about it. Training camp is over. We had some good games … and no one was complaining about ice time by the end of it, so it’s over.”
Florida had 17 power-play chances in the game, by the NHL’s count.
“It got silly. It got stupid by the end of it,” Florida forward Evan Rodrigues said. “It wasn’t really hockey out there.”
The parade to the penalty boxes started about two minutes into the game when Tampa Bay’s Scott Sabourin — who was among six players the Lightning called up for the game — went after Florida’s Aaron Ekblad. Sabourin got a major penalty after playing 19 seconds.
“It made you think there might be something coming,” Florida’s Eetu Luostarinen said, when asked what he thought when he saw the Lightning called up players for the game.
What would have been the eighth Florida goal of the night, midway through the third period, was taken away 15 minutes after Jesper Boqvist scored. Off-ice officials realized that Mikkola couldn’t have had an assist on the play — since he had been ejected earlier in the period.
The teams skated with the scoreboard saying Florida led 8-0 for about five minutes of actual game time before officials informed both teams that the goal had been taken away and Mikkola had to leave the game.
The Lightning took nine penalties and had no shots on goal in the third period.
Saturday’s game came two nights after the teams combined for 49 penalties and 186 minutes in another preseason contest, one the Lightning won 5-2.
Tampa Bay went to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals from 2020 through 2022, winning two titles in that span. Florida has been to each of the past three Stanley Cup Finals and has won the past two Cups. And there has long been a heated rivalry between the franchises.
“I think anybody that’s been a part of this rivalry would probably look at this box score and A, not be surprised and B, I can’t believe it’s taken this long for something like that to happen,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said.
PHILADELPHIA — The Flyers rid themselves of defenseman Ryan Ellis‘ contract in a trade with the Sharks, ending his tenure at four games played in four seasons.
Ellis and a conditional sixth-round draft pick were traded to San Jose on Sunday for forward Carl Grundstrom and defenseman Artem Guryev. The condition on the sixth-round pick is that San Jose shall receive the earlier of two picks Philadelphia currently owns in the 2026 sixth round, its own and Columbus‘.
The Flyers now have five picks in the 2026 draft. They own one pick in each of the first three rounds, one in the sixth and one in the seventh round.
Philadelphia thought it acquired one of the NHL’s best defensemen when it landed Ellis from the Nashville Predators ahead of the 2021 season. Ellis was selected by Nashville with the No. 11 pick in the 2009 draft and helped the Predators win the Stanley Cup in 2017. He had 270 points in 562 career games at the time of the trade.
Ellis played four games in 2021 until he suffered a pelvis injury believed to be career-threatening.
The Sharks likely will place Ellis on long-term injured reserve. He has two seasons left on an eight-year, $50 million contract that carries an annual cap hit of $6.25 million through 2027.
Grundstrom scored nine points in 56 games with San Jose last season.