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Tankers depicted in the Strait of Hormuz — a strategically important waterway which separates Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

ATTA KENARE | AFP | Getty Images

It’s been nearly four weeks since Israel declared war on Palestinian militant group Hamas, and as the conflict in Gaza enters the second stage, concerns of a spillover into the wider Middle East region is also mounting.

Market observers are keeping a close eye on the the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, to see if there may be any potential impact.

The strait, which sits between Oman and Iran, is a vital channel where about one fifth of global oil production flow daily, according to the Energy Information Administration. It is a strategically important waterway linking crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

On Oct. 7, Hamas militants launched a multi-pronged attack by land, sea and air and infiltrated Israel, killing more than 1,400 people. In retaliation, Israel launched air strikes and a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip, which has so far killed more than 9,000 people in the enclave.

Risks of it spiraling into a wider conflict remain. The U.S. has deployed military assets to the region to support Israel which is fending off rocket volleys from Iran-backed militants in neighboring Lebanon and Syria.

The U.S. has also carried out airstrikes against targets linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria.

Why Iran keeps seizing oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

A retaliation from Israel against Iran risks a closure of the strait, pushing oil prices to above $250 a barrel, a recent Bank of America note predicted. Iran is a major oil producer, and its proxies include Hamas and the Hezbollah, militant organizations that are respectively based in Gaza and Lebanon and have stated aims to destroy Israel.

Observers worry that Israel’s intense bombardment of the Gaza Strip will incite more of its adversaries to attack from new fronts, risking a spill over into the wider Middle East region.

However, some industry watchers say that a closure is unlikely.

“The probability of a supply disruption, especially the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, is of a low probability,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. He said oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait are still reliant on the revenue that comes with access to the strait.

Goldman Sachs echoed the same sentiment.

Analysts led by head of oil research Daan Struyven said in an Oct. 26 note that a “severe supply downside scenario” as a result of an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is not likely to materialize.

Low probability of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, consultancy says

On Sunday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that Israel had “crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action.”

Foreign ministers of Arab nations — including the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt and Morocco — condemned the targeting of civilians and violations of international law in Gaza by Israeli forces. Israel says it does not target civilians, only terrorist targets.

In 2019, Iran repeatedly threatened to disrupt oil shipments going through the Strait of Hormuz after former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal and restore sanctions on the Islamic country. In the past two years alone, Iran has attacked or interfered with 15 internationally flagged merchant vessels, according to data from the U.S. Navy.

On Monday, the World Bank projected that oil prices could surge to $157 per barrel should the ongoing conflict continues to escalate.

The World Bank warned of a repeat of the Arab oil embargo in 1973, where Arab energy ministers imposed an embargo on oil exports on the U.S. in retaliation for its support of Israel in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

In such a scenario, there could be a “large disruption” scenario, “that would drive prices up by 56% to 75% initially — to between $140 and $157 a barrel,” the report said.

Lipow said it’s not likely for such a scenario to take place.

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Oil prices year-to-date

“Times are quite different today than they were 50 years ago, because you have these Mideast countries that simply need the [oil] revenue,” he said.

That said, Lipow pointed out that Iran has been “prosecuting the war through its proxies.”

“One of my fears is that maybe one of these proxies makes a very bad mistake when they’re attacking Israel,” he added. Should that happen, the analyst said Israel will likely retaliate, going “right for Iran’s jugular” which would deteriorate very quickly into a regional conflict.

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China’s nationwide ‘cash for clunkers’ trade-in program causing huge e-bike boom

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China's nationwide 'cash for clunkers' trade-in program causing huge e-bike boom

While much of the Western world is still figuring out how to get more people on electric bikes, China just flipped a switch, and the results are staggering. Thanks to a generous nationwide trade-in program rolled out around six months ago, China has seen an explosive surge in electric bicycle sales, with over 8.47 million new e-bikes hitting the road in the first half of 2025 alone.

The program, which offers subsidies to riders who trade in their old, often outdated electric bikes for newer, safer, and more efficient models, has sparked a new e-bike sale boom in a country already dominated by e-bike travel. In major provinces like Jiangsu, Hebei, and Zhejiang, over one million new e-bikes were sold in each region in just six months. That’s a tidal wave of e-bike sales.

The incentives vary depending on location and the model being traded in, but for many consumers, the subsidies cover a substantial portion of a new e-bike’s price – enough to turn a “maybe next year” purchase into a “right now” upgrade. And these aren’t just budget bikes either. The program has driven demand for higher-quality models with better batteries, safer braking systems, and more reliable electronics, accelerating both adoption and innovation across the industry.

The move has proven successful in replacing the millions of older models with lower-quality lithium-ion batteries that had posed safety risks around the country. Instead, China has pushed for higher-quality lithium-ion batteries, a return to a newer generation of higher-performance AGM batteries, and even interesting new sodium-ion battery options.

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Most e-bikes in China look more like what we’d consider seated scooters

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, more than 8.4 million consumers have participated in the e-bike trade-in program so far, contributing to a sales increase of 643.5% year-over-year and more than doubling sales month-over-month. Meanwhile, production of new electric bicycles rose by nearly 28%, as manufacturers scrambled to meet demand. The sales boosts have already been seen in the financial reports of major industry players like NIU.

And it’s not just the big players benefiting – over 82,000 small independent e-bike dealers reported average sales increases of ¥302,000 (around US $42,000), giving a serious boost to local economies.

What’s particularly striking here is how fast this happened. The program was officially launched late last year as part of a broader effort to stimulate domestic consumption and phase out outdated vehicles and appliances. But while most analysts expected gradual growth, the e-bike sector responded much more quickly. In less than a year, the trade-in subsidies have reshaped the electric bicycle market, creating a consumer-driven boom that shows no signs of slowing.

For those of us watching from outside China, it’s hard not to wonder what might happen if other countries tried something similar. While most families in Chinese cities already own an electric bike and thus see this as an opportunity to trade it in for a newer model, Western countries like the US are still figuring out how to stimulate commuters into buying their first e-bike.

It’s too soon to know exactly how long the boom will last or whether the momentum will carry into 2026 and beyond. We’ve seen bicycle industry bubbles grow and burst before. But one thing’s clear: with the right incentives, even modest ones, it’s possible to ignite real, large-scale change. China just proved it with nearly 8.5 million new e-bikes to show for it.

And if you’re wondering what it looks like when a country takes electric micromobility seriously, this is it.

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Day 1 of the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025 [Gallery]

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Day 1 of the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025 [Gallery]

Today was the official start of racing at the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025! There was a tremendous energy (and heat) on the ground at NCM Motorsports Park as nearly a dozen teams took to the track. Currently, as of writing, Stanford is ranked #1 in the SOV (Single-Occupant Vehicle) class with 68 registered laps. However, the fastest lap so far belongs to UC Berkeley, which clocked a 4:45 on the 3.15-mile track. That’s an average speed of just under 40 mph on nothing but solar energy. Not bad!

In the MOV (Multi-Occupant Vehicle) class, Polytechnique Montréal is narrowly ahead of Appalachian State by just 4 laps. At last year’s formula sun race, Polytechnique Montréal took first place overall in this class, and the team hopes to repeat that success. It’s still too early for prediction though, and anything can happen between now and the final day of racing on Saturday.

Congrats to the teams that made it on track today. We look forward to seeing even more out there tomorrow. In the meantime, here are some shots from today via the event’s wonderful photographer Cora Kennedy.

Stay tuned for more!

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Tesla sold 5,000 Cybertrucks Q2, Optimus is in chaos, plus: the Infinity Train!

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Tesla sold 5,000 Cybertrucks Q2, Optimus is in chaos, plus: the Infinity Train!

The numbers are in and they are all bad for Tesla fans – the company sold just 5,000 Cybertruck models in Q4 of 2025, and built some 30% more “other” vehicles than it delivered. It just gets worse and worse, on today’s tension-building episode of Quick Charge!

We’ve also got day 1 coverage of the 2025 Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix, reports that the Tesla Optimus program is in chaos after its chief engineer jumps ship, and a look ahead at the fresh new Hyundai IONIQ 2 set to bow early next year, thanks to some battery specs from the Kia EV2.

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.

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Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.


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