The Election Reform That Could Help Republicans in a Swing State

Published

1 year ago

November 3, 2023

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When Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania announced in September that the nations largest swing state would implement automatic voter registration, Donald Trump threw a conniption. Pennsylvania is at it again! the former president posted on Truth Social, his social-media platform. The switch, Trump said, would be a disaster for the Election of Republicans, including your favorite President, ME!

Trumps panic is consistent with his (baseless) view that any reforms designed to increase voter turnout, such as expanding mail balloting and early voting, are part of a Democratic conspiracy to rig elections in their favor. But he may be wrong to fear automatic voter registration: Although Shapiro is a Democrat, if either party stands to gain from his move, its likely to be the GOP. In Pennsylvania, the reform really has a potential to lean more Republican, Seo-young Silvia Kim, an elections expert who has studied the system, told me. Its not great news for Democrats.

First implemented in Oregon in 2016, automatic voter registration is now used in 23 states, including threeAlaska, Georgia, and West Virginiathat are governed by Republicans. Rather than requiring citizens to proactively register to vote, some states that use the system automatically enroll people who meet eligibility requirements and then give them the option to decline or opt out. The shift is subtler in Pennsylvania; the state has simply started prompting people to register to vote when they obtain a new or renewed drivers license or state ID.

David A. Graham: Actually good news about voting, for a change

The seemingly minor change, which voting-rights advocates still place under the umbrella of automatic registration, is based on behavioral research showing that people are less likely to opt out of a choice than to opt in. By including voter registration as part of a commonly used process such as obtaining a drivers licenseand by presenting it as the default option rather than a form that citizens have to requeststates have found that they can increase both registration and turnout in elections. Even though the process isnt that big of a shift, the effects are great, Greta Bedekovics, the associate director of democracy policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, told me.

Democrats have led the move toward automatic voter registration, and their 2021 comprehensive voting-rights legislation known as the For the People Act included a requirement that state-elections chiefs implement the policy. (The bill died in the Senate.) But automatic registration does not inherently favor one party or the other, and it has appealed to Republicans in some states because it helps officials clean up voter rolls and safeguard elections. I dont know who it will help, and thats kind of the point, Sean Morales-Doyle, the director of the voting-rights program at NYUs Brennan Center for Justice, told me.

A 2017 study by the Center for American Progress found that the voters who enrolled through Oregons automatic-registration system were more likely to be younger, more rural, lower income, and more ethnically diverse than the electorate as a wholea demographic mix that suggests that Republicans might have benefited as much as Democrats.

Other research shows a more partisan advantage. While an assistant professor at American University in 2018, Kim, the elections expert, studied the effects of automatic registration in Orange County, California, the site of several hard-fought congressional races that year. She found that among residents who needed to update their registration because they had moved within the county, automatic registration resulted in no meaningful shift for Democrats. But it substantially boosted turnout among Republicans and independentsby 8.1 points and 7.4 points, respectively. I was actually very surprised, Kim said, adding that shed expected that if any party gained, it would be Democrats. She suspects that Democrats may have been unaffected by the change because in 2018, they were already motivated to vote by Trumps recent election.

The impact of automatic registration on any one election is likely to be marginal, but even small shifts could be significant in a state such as Pennsylvania, where less than one percentage point separated Trump from Hillary Clinton in 2016 and just more than one point separated Joe Biden from Trump four years later. Several factors suggest that the new system could benefit the GOP in Pennsylvania. Although Democrats have more registered voters in the state, Republicans have been closing the gap during the Trump era as more white working-class and rural voters who stopped voting for Democrats years ago have chosen to join the GOP. Democrats have countered that drift by capturing wealthier suburban voters, a group that helped Shapiro and first-term Democratic Senator John Fetterman win their races during last years midterm elections. Because this demographic already goes to the polls pretty reliably, though, automatic registration is more likely to boost turnout among the right-leaning rural working class.

An early-2020 study also suggested that the GOP stood to gain from higher voter turnout in Pennsylvania. The Knight Foundation surveyed 12,000 chronic non-voters nationwide before Democrats had settled on Biden as their nominee. Across the country, nonvoters said that if they cast a ballot, they would support the Democratic candidate over Trump by a slim margin, 33 percent to 30 percent. But in Pennsylvania, nonvoters went strongly in the other direction: By a 3628 percent margin, they said theyd prefer Trump over the Democrat. The eight-point gap was the second largest (after Arizona) in favor of Trump in any of the 10 swing states that the organization polled.

Jerusalem Demsas: Americans vote too much

Democrats sometimes have the mistaken opinion that anybody that doesnt show up is going to vote Democrat, Mike Mikus, a longtime Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania, told me. Its been one of the myths in Democratic circles for years. Quite frankly, given the changing of the respective party bases, it makes sense that [automatic registration] may somewhat benefit Republicans. Other recent polls have suggested that the political realignment of the Trump era has made the GOP more reliant on infrequent voters.

The place where Democrats could most use stronger turnoutparticularly among the partys base of Black votersis Philadelphia, which provided about one-sixth of Bidens statewide vote in 2020. The city had higher turnout than Pennsylvania as a whole in both 2008 and 2012, when Barack Obama led the Democratic ticket, but it has lagged further and further behind in each election since. Last year, turnout in Philadelphia was just 43 percent, compared with 54 percent statewide.

Yet automatic voter registration might have less impact in Philadelphia than in other parts of the state. Studies have found that the switch drives higher turnout outside urban areas, where Democratic voters are most concentrated. Thats partly because automatic voter registration is operated through the state Department of Motor Vehiclesan agency with which people who rely on public transit are less likely to interact. For that reason, when New York implemented automatic registration in 2020, voting-rights advocates lobbied aggressively for the state to enroll voters through other agencies in addition to the DMV; as of 2018, a majority of the more than 3 million households in New York City did not own a car.

Pennsylvania has no plans to implement automatic voter registration beyond the state DMV. Democrats have been adamant that in enacting the new system, Shapiro was not trying to benefit his party but merely trying to reach the 1.6 million Keystone State residents who are eligible but not registered to vote. Although Republicans argued that the change should have gone through the state legislature, they have not formally challenged automatic registration in court. Few of them seemed to agree with Trump that the reform would doom the GOP. Its impact will be somewhere etween inconsequential and a nothingburger, Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant in Pennsylvania, told me.

Democrats say its too early to assess the electoral impact of automatic voter registration, but they acknowledged that Republicans might gain more voters as a result. More than 13,500 Pennsylvanians registered to vote through the new system during its first six weeks of implementation, according to numbers provided by the Shapiro administration. Of that total, Republicans added about 100 more voters than Democrats. Our former president is almost always wrong, Joanna McClinton, who leads a narrow Democratic majority as the speaker of the Pennsylvania state House, told me. The fact that Trump is so opposed to the reform, she said, reveals something weve always known, which is Republicans want to keep the electorate small, selective, and they dont want to expand access to voting even if they could be the beneficiaries of it.

Whether Trump regains the presidency next year could hinge on the tightest of margins in Pennsylvania. I asked McClinton if she worried that by implementing automatic voter registration, Shapiro had unintentionally bestowed an electoral gift on Republicans ahead of an enormously significant election. McClinton didnt hesitate. Not at all, she replied quickly. I look forward to seeing the full data, but I definitely am not looking at this from a political perspective but from a big-D democracy perspective.

Business

Ex-Villa chief Purslow among contenders to chair football watchdog

Published

2 hours ago

March 1, 2025

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Ex-Villa chief Purslow among contenders to chair football watchdog

A former chief executive of Aston Villa and Liverpool is a surprise contender to become the inaugural chairman of the government’s controversial football watchdog.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Christian Purslow, who left Villa Park in 2023, is on a three-person shortlist being considered by Whitehall officials to chair the Independent Football Regulator (IFR).

Mr Purslow, an outspoken character who has spent much of his career in sports finance, was this weekend said to be a serious candidate for the job despite having publicly warned about the regulator’s proposed remit and its potential impact on the Premier League.

A former commercial chief at Chelsea Football Club, Mr Purslow spent an eventful 16 months in charge at Anfield, spearheading the sale of Liverpool to its current owners following a bitter fight with former principals Tom Hicks and George Gillett.

He joined Aston Villa in 2018 when the club was in its third consecutive season in the Championship, seeing them promoted via the play-offs at the end of that campaign.

It was unclear this weekend how much of the football pyramid would respond to the appointment of a chairman at the regulator who has been so closely associated with top-flight clubs, given ongoing disagreement between the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) about the future distribution of finances.

One ally of Mr Purslow said, though, that his independence was not in doubt and that his experience of working outside the Premier League would also be valuable if he landed the IFR chairman role.

Another senior football figure said Mr Purslow “would be welcomed by the football community as someone who has worked in football, and not as a civil servant or politician”.

In the past, Mr Purslow has both welcomed the prospect of further regulatory oversight of the sport, while also warning in a BBC interview in 2021, during his stint at Villa Park: “The Premier League has really always been the source of funding for the rest of football and the danger here is killing the golden goose, if we over-regulate a highly successful and commercial operation.

“I think we have to be very careful as we contemplate reform that it does not ultimately damage the game.

“We already have a hugely successful English football Premier League – the most successful in the world.”

Two years later, however, he told Sky News’ political editor, Beth Rigby: “I like the idea that the government wants to be involved in our national sport.

“These [clubs] are hugely important institutions in their communities, economically and socially – so it’s right that they [the government] are interested.”

The disclosure of Mr Purslow’s candidacy means that two of the three shortlisted contenders for what will rank among the most powerful jobs in English football have now been identified by Sky News.

On Friday, it emerged that Sanjay Bhandari, the chairman of Kick It Out, the football anti-racism charity, was also in the frame for the Manchester-based position, which will pay £130,000-a-year.

A decision is expected in the coming weeks, with the third candidate expected to be a woman given the shift in Whitehall to gender-diverse shortlists for public appointments.

The establishment of the regulator, which was originally conceived by the previous Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, has triggered deep unrest in the sport.

This week, Steve Parish, the influential chairman of Premier League side Crystal Palace, told a sports industry conference organised by the Financial Times that the watchdog “wants to interfere in all of the things we don’t need them to interfere in and help with none of the things we actually need help with”.

“We have a problem that we’re constantly being told that we’re not a business and [that] we’re part of the fabric of communities,” he is reported to have said.

“At the same time, we’re…being treated to the nth degree like a business.”

Interviews for the chair of the football regulator took place in November, with a previous recruitment process curtailed by the calling of last year’s general election.

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, will sign off on the appointment of a preferred candidate, with the chosen individual expected to face a pre-appointment hearing in front of the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.

The Football Governance Bill is proceeding through parliament, with its next stage expected in March.

It forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game wracked by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases over its financial dealings.

The government has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.

The IFR will monitor clubs’ adherence to rules requiring them to listen to fans’ views on issues including ticket pricing, while it may also have oversight of the parachute payments made to clubs in the years after their relegation from the Premier League.

The top flight has issued a statement expressing reservations about the regulator’s remit, while the IFR has been broadly welcomed by the English Football League.

A Department for Culture, Media and Sport spokesman said: “We do not comment on speculation.

“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”

Mr Purslow was abroad this weekend and did not respond to a request for comment.

Entertainment

Excitement builds for Oscars – but Hollywood still reeling from wildfires

Published

3 hours ago

March 1, 2025

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Excitement builds for Oscars - but Hollywood still reeling from wildfires

As Hollywood celebrates the film industry at this weekend’s Academy Awards, not far away from where finishing touches are being put to the red carpet, communities are still coming to terms with the impact of the wildfires which ravaged areas of Los Angeles earlier this year.

Prop master Adam Jette – and his wife and son – lost their home in Altadena.

“Even coming back into the neighbourhood is really, really hard,” he tells Sky News.

“You’re coming back to what it is, which is a disaster site, the whole neighbourhood is gone.”

He says he and others in the same position have no choice but to keep going.

“We all have to keep working in order to support ourselves, in order to have our health insurance, in order to be able to move forward and rebuild.

“And yet the only thing you want to do is just, you know, sit there in misery.”

In Hollywood, few productions have had to be paused because less is being shot here these days, the fires adding to the existential crisis the city was already facing.

Wes Bailey’s company SirReel has been renting out film and TV production equipment in Los Angeles since the 1990s – but in recent years work in the city of dreams has dried up.

First COVID-19, then strikes and now, after a race for scale to commission content for streaming platforms, the industry is facing a production contraction and Bailey says it needs help.

“The fires were, I think, the catalyst to really get people to say ‘we’ve got an emergency here’,” he says.

“You go into the UK and you get a 40% return on your money.

“I think the way that California delivers that incentive has been sloppy, it’s been inconsistent.”

For glossy reality show Selling Sunset, set around high-end real estate in LA, production has now resumed after pausing when the fires broke out.

One of the show’s stars, Jason Oppenheim, says he’s had “many, many” emotional calls from clients.

“I’m 30% therapist right now, 20% attorney, 20% contractor and 30% real estate agent,” he tells Sky News.

He says Los Angeles has issues that need resolving if it wants to continue to attract investment.

“We obviously have a crime problem, we have a homelessness problem, we’ve obviously taxed to the point where we discourage development, and we obviously have seen significant loss of wealthy people leaving the state.

“If you really want to have a healthy, functioning society that’s egalitarian and creates opportunity for everyone, you’re going to need a lot of wealthy people in that city paying taxes, so you cannot force them away and that’s just a fact.”

Yet despite the frustration, he’s optimistic for the future of the Palisades – another area devastated by the fires.

“I would bet anything that the Palisades will be one of the most desirable areas on the planet to live in five years,” he says.

“The houses will be stunning, fireproof, beautiful architecture.”

But that seems a long way off now, and in the meantime for those left with nothing the little they can salvage becomes special.

For Adam Jette that’s even an iron saucepan.

“To be able to pull anything out of this wreckage and have it, it’s so meaningful,” he says.

“It didn’t take our pets and it didn’t take our family, it just took stuff, but even just some of that surviving it really, it means something.”

Buried in the ashes following the wildfires is a lesson in what matters to those who keep this industry going – and it’s not red carpets or golden statuettes.

Entertainment

Brit Awards 2025: Who is performing, who’s nominated and how to watch

Published

3 hours ago

March 1, 2025

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Brit Awards 2025: Who is performing, who's nominated and how to watch

Tonight’s Brit Awards are shaping up to be a big night for female British artists, including Charli XCX and Dua Lipa.

The ceremony, which is taking place at London’s O2 Arena, will see artists who are currently dominating the charts come together to celebrate the best in popular music.

Leading nominations with five nods is Charli XCX, whose sixth album Brat was a viral hit last year.

Dua Lipa closely follows with four nominations – along with 2024 rising star winners The Last Dinner Party, and 2023 Mercury Prize winners Ezra Collective.

Here is everything you can expect from the biggest night in British music.

What will happen?

Comedian Jack Whitehall is returning to host this year’s ceremony.

It will be his first time at the helm in four years, but fifth in total, after taking on the role for four consecutive years from 2018 to 2021.

There are 16 categories for awards this year, including the big one – album of the year.

In the running for this is Charli XCX – BRAT, The Cure – Songs Of A Lost World, Dua Lipa – Radical Optimism, Ezra Collective – Dance, No One’s Watching and The Last Dinner Party – Prelude to Ecstasy.

Other awards up for grabs include: Artist of the year, group of the year, best new artist, song of the year, international artist of the year, international group of the year, international song of the year, alternative rock act, hip-hop/grime/rap act, dance act, pop act and R&B act.

Last year’s ceremony saw singer-songwriter Raye dominating, with a record number of six wins including a clean sweep of the big three; best artist, best song and best album.

This year, the trophy that winners will pick up on the night has been designed by artist Gabriel Moses.

Who is nominated?

Before the awards have even begun, Charli XCX has been announced as the winner of this year’s songwriter of the year award.

Also recognised is her longtime collaborator AG Cook, winning Brits producer of the year, reflecting the combined impact he and Charli XCX have had on music over the last 12 months.

The singer – whose real name is Charlotte Aitchison – could still pick up another five awards tonight including: pop act, dance act, song of the year, artist of the year and album of the year.

Behind Charli XCX, this year also sees The Beatles pick up a nomination for the song Now And Then.

The song, which was finished by Sir Paul McCartney and Sir Ringo Starr with the help of audio restoration and released in November, is the band’s first nomination since 1977.

The Cure are also back with three nominations – following the release of their 14th album, Songs Of A Lost World, in 2024.

International artists such as Beyonce, Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift, Benson Boone, Chappell Roan and Kendrick Lamar have also all got nods, as well as homegrown talent such as Central Cee, Fred again.., Sam Fender and former Little Mix star JADE.

Sabrina Carpenter will become the first international artist to receive the global success award after breaking records in the UK charts.

The pop star held the top spot on the Official UK Charts for a combined 21 weeks in 2024, the first artist to do so in 71 years.

Her mega-hits Taste, Please Please Please and Espresso held the top three spots simultaneously, making her the first female artist to do so.

Already named as this year’s rising star is British singer-songwriter Myles Smith, whose single Stargazing became one of the UK’s biggest hits of 2024.

You can read the full list of nominations ahead of tonight, right here.

Who is performing?

Taking to the stage at this year’s ceremony is a mix of UK and US artists including Sam Fender, JADE, Teddy Swims and Myles Smith.

Off the back of winning the award for global success, Sabrina Carpenter, will also treat audiences to a performance.

It comes after Carpenter’s slapstick comedy mashup performance at the Grammy’s was dubbed “iconic” by fans.

It is the first year American artists Shaboozey, known for A Bar Song (Tipsy) and Teddy Swims, known for Lose Control, will also perform at the awards.

“I’m beyond grateful and humbled to not only be nominated for a Brit Award but to take the stage,” Shaboozey said.

“This past year has been huge for me with my records getting love from all over the world and now I can celebrate with my friends and fans in London.”

Meanwhile, JADE, whose real name is Jade Thirlwall, said she “manifested” performing at the Brits every day since the release of her debut solo single Angel Of My Dreams last year.

The singer already has three Brit Awards to her name, winning best British single for Shout Out To My Ex, video of the year for Woman Like Me and best British group with Little Mix, but is nominated this year as a solo artist in the song of the year and pop act categories.

Also performing on the night are Lola Young – who is nominated for best pop act – and The Last Dinner Party, who won the Brits rising star award last year.

How to watch

Live coverage of the Brits will start on ITV and ITVX from 8.15pm tonight.

You can also follow along with all the latest from the red carpet and ceremony on Sky News and our dedicated live blog.

For those outside the UK, the show is available to watch internationally on the Brits YouTube channel.