Way-too-early 2024 MLB power rankings
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterNov 1, 2023, 11:00 PM ET
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The Rangers have done it! They’ve won their first World Series in franchise history, beating the Diamondbacks in five games in what was one of the most surprising Series matchups ever.
Now that the Fall Classic is over, it’s time to turn our attention to 2024 — and we’re kicking that off with some way-WAY-too-early power rankings.
Where do Texas and Arizona rank after their exhilarating World Series runs? Were the Braves and Dodgers hurt by their division-round knockouts? And where did the Orioles and Astros land? Let’s get right into it!
Final 2023 regular-season Power Rankings | Grades for every team
2023 record: 104-58
2023 final ranking: 1
After losing to the Phillies in the division series for a second straight season, there was a lot made in Atlanta about the Braves lacking the necessary intestinal fortitude required to win in October. It can’t be a coincidence. Changes need to be made. The one player Braves fans seemed to defend the most was Spencer Strider, even though he’s 0-3 against the Phillies in those two series.
Let’s not forget that many of these same players were part of a World Series roster just two years ago. What, you want to trade Ronald Acuna Jr.? Dump Ozzie Albies and his $7 million-per-year contract? Look, no doubt the rotation was a bit of a mess by the end of the season, with Charlie Morton injured, Max Fried pitching through a blister issue and Bryce Elder struggling. Alex Anthopoulos will no doubt address the bullpen and perhaps add a veteran starter, but the lineup that became the first ever to slug .500 remains intact, and that will make the Braves the team to beat.
2023 record: 90-72
2023 final ranking: 5
Well, that was quite the ride … and there are reasons to expect the Rangers will be even better in 2024. An offense that led the AL in runs will now be adding Evan Carter for a full season, and 2023 first-round pick Wyatt Langford looks like a potential superstar after hitting .360/.480/.677 and reaching Triple-A in his pro debut. All the starting pitching options will be back except for free agent Jordan Montgomery, and given his postseason success you wonder if the Rangers will make a hard pitch to bring him back. You can never have too much starting pitching, especially given the various health concerns with Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Jacob deGrom. You can also never have too much relief pitching either, and that will be the offseason priority. How about signing free agent Josh Hader as the new closer?
2023 record: 101-61
2023 final ranking: 2
When the Rangers swept Baltimore in the ALDS the general reaction seemed to be, “Oh, the Orioles weren’t really that good anyway,” which felt like an in-the-moment dismissal of a team that won 101 games. Perhaps that win-loss record did overrate the Orioles’ true talent level — their Pythagorean record was 94-68 — but the good news is there is more young talent on the way to join Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez, including Jackson Holliday who emerged as the game’s top prospect — plus Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo, who hit .313/.402/.551 while reaching Double-A at 19.
The question: How will Mike Elias reinforce the pitching staff? Starting pitching is the strength of an otherwise weak free agent class: Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is expected to be posted after a sensational season (1.16 ERA, just two home runs allowed in 171 innings), top the list. Whether the Orioles fork over a nine-figure contract remains to be seen, maybe they’ll trade from their prospect depth instead. Either way, it’s time for the organization to make a big move for the rotation.
2023 record: 90-72
2023 final ranking: 6
There are two ways to view the Phillies: (1) They’ve defeated the Braves two years in a row in the postseason; (2) They’ve finished 14 games behind the Braves in the NL East each of the past two seasons. That’s aside from the shocking loss to the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, which did expose a few weaknesses: The lineup, even with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, doesn’t draw a lot of walks; they also strike out a lot. In other words, some of these guys can be pitched to, and Arizona exploited those holes. The other problem, of course, was Craig Kimbrel. He’s a free agent, and the team will need a new closer — either from within or perhaps Philadelphia will be among the teams chasing Hader.
Still, few can match the Phillies’ frontline talent, and they return all their key players except longtime starter Aaron Nola, who heads into free agency. Re-signing him — or replacing him — will be an offseason priority (with an eye towards Zack Wheeler’s free agency after 2024 as well). Maybe they’ll count on top prospect Mick Abel (fellow prospect Andrew Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July), but Nola’s durability is a big plus, and you have to think Dave Dombrowski will make a run at bringing him back.
2023 record: 90-72
2023 final ranking: 9
Losing all four home games in the ALCS was the exclamation point on a weird season for the Astros, one in which they battled injuries and had a losing record at home and then ended with Dusty Baker announcing his retirement.
Was winning 16 fewer games than they did in 2022 a sign that the Astros are finally getting old? Not really. Alex Bregman is entering his age-30 season, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker will be 27 and Jeremy Pena 26. Yainer Diaz should take over as the regular catcher after hitting 23 home runs as a rookie, and that will improve the offense. Jose Altuve is 34 but coming off a .311/.393/.522 season. Depth remains an issue for Houston offensively, but not star power. In the rotation, the Astros will have Justin Verlander for a full season but need Cristian Javier to show up more often in the regular season and Framber Valdez to rediscover his sinker.
Overall, the Astros will be loaded with hopes of another championship run. Indeed, the biggest issue may simply be mentally gearing up for another 162-game regular season. At some point they’ll have to rebuild — Bregman and Altuve are entering the final years of their deals — but that time has yet to arrive.
2023 record: 99-63
2023 final ranking: 4
The Rays are a tough team to evaluate. They’re coming off an impressive 99-win season with the third-highest run differential in the majors, but the injuries to the starting rotation had piled up by the end of the season, and they’ll be without Shane McClanahan in 2024 after Tommy John surgery. Tyler Glasnow’s salary also jumps from $5.35 million to $25 million, which might put him on the trade block. Plus, there’s the uncertainty of the Wander Franco investigation.
Still, the offense was terrific. Top prospects Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead should be ready to play major roles, and Shane Baz should be back from Tommy John surgery. And they’ll probably find three relievers off the waiver wire and turn them into dominant arms.
2023 record: 100-62
2023 final ranking: 3
Deep breaths here. The Dodgers aren’t facing an impending organizational collapse. Yes, that playoff loss to the Diamondbacks was embarrassing and all kinds of awful, and the rotation at season’s end was messier than a 4-year-old eating a chocolate ice cream cone. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent with an unknown future, and Julio Urias will not be back. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will miss 2024 after Tommy John surgeries. That leaves Bobby Miller, a returning Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot as the rotation heading into the offseason — plus a group of interesting starting pitching prospects in the upper minors, including Gavin Stone, Nick Frasso, River Ryan and Landon Knack. The cupboard isn’t exactly barren here.
Plus, you know … there’s Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. And Will Smith. And Max Muncy. And James Outman had a nice rookie season. They’ll have Gavin Lux back. Oh … and they have plenty of payroll room to spend over the winter. Rumor is they may be looking at getting a certain superstar to make a 31.4-mile trip up I-5. Look, there are real concerns here: An unproven rotation, a lineup that was mostly a bunch of 30-somethings in 2023. But bet against the Dodgers at your own peril.
2023 record: 88-74
2023 final ranking: 11
In an all-time foot-in-his-mouth moment, Mariners baseball operations head Jerry Dipoto told reporters during his end-of-season news conference that “We’re actually doing the fan base a favor in asking their patience to win the World Series.” He then explained his theory that winning 54% of games over a decade is the team’s aspiration. The Mariners won 54% of their games in 2023 — and missed the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mariners have seen the Rangers leapfrog right over them in the AL West.
The rotation gives Seattle a high floor — although I think that group is a little overrated. The Mariners were just 12th in the majors in rotation ERA on the road. Still, it’s a strong foundation with Bryce Miller lining up behind Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. They’ll hope to get Marco Gonzales back and Robbie Ray could return from Tommy John surgery later in the season. The offense finished eighth in the majors in runs on the road, but strikeouts were a problem — second most in the majors. That’s just too many whiffs to make a deep playoff run — if they get in. What do they need to win, oh, 56% of their games? A left-handed, power-hitting DH would be nice. Know anybody who fits the bill?
2023 record: 83-79
2023 final ranking: 13
The Cubs ended up missing the postseason by one win after losing five of their final six games, which head of baseball operations Jed Hoyer described as “Painfully, we did not finish the race. And you can’t call something that falls short of your goals a success.” Still, after posting a plus-96 run differential that ranked 10th in the majors, the Cubs are headed in the right direction, including having a slew of young players such as September call-ups Jordan Wicks and Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Kevin Alcantara and even 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw who could impact the major league roster in 2024.
They’ll have to decide whether to pursue re-signing Cody Bellinger, and Marcus Stroman has an opt-out, so that could mean there are two big holes to fill. With Crow-Armstrong ready to take over in center field, maybe they let Bellinger walk, although that opens up a hole at first base where Matt Mervis may or not be the answer. Still, with so much promising young talent on the way, the Cubs have the flexibility to pursue free agents to plug some gaps.
2023 record: 89-73
2023 final ranking: 8
Is there more in the tank here? After seasons of 92 and 89 wins that both ended in two-game sweeps in the AL Wild Card Series, the Jays are kind of stuck between contender and pretender with no clear path to improvement. On the positive side, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all return after making 30-plus starts with ERAs under 4.00. If Alek Manoah can figure out what went wrong, the rotation should again be one of the best in the majors. On offense, Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier are all free agents so this lineup could look different in 2024. After ranking eighth in the AL in runs, they’ll need to fill those holes. John Schneider is back as manager after his dubious decision to pull Berrios in the playoff game that was questioned by his own players and front office. I’m not sure he’s a strength here — given the health of the rotation in 2023, it’s hard to say he got the most out of this club.
2023 record: 84-78
2023 final ranking: 12
The Diamondbacks squeaked into the postseason for the first time since 2017 and then had a memorable playoff run in beating the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies to reach the World Series. It will be interesting to see what kind of offseason the front office pursues. After all, this was a team that was outscored during the regular season and relied on a red-hot bullpen in the postseason. There is an exciting young core here that should keep the D-backs in contention in upcoming years: Corbin Carroll will be 23, Gabriel Moreno 24, Alek Thomas 24, Geraldo Perdomo 24, with top prospect Jordan Lawlar ready to break into the lineup as well.
They’ll have to improve the back of the rotation — beginning with improvement from playoff hero Brandon Pfaadt, who had a 5.72 ERA in the regular season but showed in October that he has potential to be much improved in 2024. Ryne Nelson (5.31 ERA) will be given another opportunity in the rotation, and it makes sense to go after a veteran starter — even an innings-eater like Kyle Gibson would help — but the Diamondbacks should sense some weakness in the Dodgers and Padres and aim higher.
2023 record: 82-80
2023 final ranking: 17
I hate to use the term luck since you make your own luck, but the Padres were one of the unluckiest teams in MLB history, finishing 10 wins worse than their Pythagorean record. That came courtesy of a 9-23 record in one-run games, including 2-12 in extra innings. By FanGraphs’ “clutch” factor, they were also the least clutch offensive team in the majors (they hit .210 in high-leverage situations).
They do have two premier free agents to replace in likely Cy Young winner Blake Snell and closer Josh Hader and will need yet another new manager with Bob Melvin leaving for the Giants. The frontline talent is here to compete for a division title, and given how much the Padres have invested in this roster it seems unlikely they’ll back off now. That’s not to dismiss the possibility they trade Juan Soto as he enters his walk year and A.J. Preller hasn’t exactly proven he can build the depth around his stars. Still, I think the Padres will be more competitive in 2024.
2023 record: 87-75
2023 final ranking: 10
Ahh, the benefits of playing in a division where two teams are a mess, one is rebuilding and one is too cheap to improve its roster. OK, maybe saying that much of their success is simply the AL Central is a bit unfair to the Twins, who were six games over .500 outside the division (frankly, they should have done better within the division). Most importantly, the Twins ended that horrific 18-game postseason losing streak with a wild-card series win over the Blue Jays.
The strength of the team in 2023 was a starting rotation that led the majors in strikeout rate, but Cy Young contender Sonny Gray is a free agent, as are Kenta Maeda and (the often injured) Tyler Mahle, so that’s 57 starts to fill. The offense was fifth in the AL in runs scored as Edouard Julien looks like he’ll be an on-base machine, and Royce Lewis showed signs of potential stardom if he can stay healthy. If Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton can all post and produce, the offense could be really good, but they are three big ifs given their health history. The offseason focus will likely center on adding a starting pitcher to replace Gray and perhaps a corner outfield bat (Joey Gallo was not a solution).
2023 record: 82-80
2023 final ranking: 16
No team has more on the line this offseason than the Yankees, who are coming off their worst winning percentage since 1992 (although they avoided a losing season) and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Is Brian Cashman getting an unfair rap? After all, the Yankees won 99 games in 2022 and 100 and 103 in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Maybe, but the World Series drought is now at 14 years and the lack of left-handed power in recent years has been a strange approach to lineup construction given their home park.
The Yankees’ best solutions have always been to just spend money (although not enough in recent years, according to Yankees fans), but the free agent market won’t be too helpful here unless they can lure Shohei Ohtani to the Bronx (and they’re kind of stuck with Giancarlo Stanton at DH already). This feels like a spot where they could overpay Cody Bellinger for his big 2023. Still, the pitching might be very good-to-dominant if Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes bounce back from injuries and with Michael King looking like a nice starter based on his late-season performance in the rotation. For now, we’ll put them in the middle of the pack and note that there is upside here with the right tweaks and better health.
2023 record: 78-84
2023 final ranking: 19
Chaim Bloom is out after four years as chief baseball officer, and former Red Sox reliever Craig Breslow, who has been in the Cubs’ front office since 2019, takes over. No doubt owner John Henry has given him the mantra to win now, replacing Bloom’s more cautious approach.
Luckily for Breslow, the Red Sox have a nice offensive foundation and Bloom did a nice job rebuilding what had been a weak farm system. On top of breakout seasons from Triston Casas and Jarren Duran, prospects like Ceddanne Rafaela, Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke might be ready to contribute in 2024, with Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel perhaps a year away.
The problem is the rotation ranked 22nd in the majors in ERA. If ownership wants to win now that will mean purchasing some arms in free agency or trading away some of that young position player talent.
2023 record: 92-70
2023 final ranking: 7
Of the six division winners, the Brewers feel like the team most likely to fall. First off, manager Craig Counsell — arguably the best in the game — is unsigned. Maybe he ends up going back to Milwaukee, or maybe David Stearns, his former boss, lures him to manage the Mets. We already know they’ll be without Brandon Woodruff for all of 2024. The bullpen, which led the majors in win probability added, is likely to regress at least a little. Then there’s the status of Corbin Burnes, with one season left until he’s a free agent. Trading him might be an opportunity to add a young bat or two to a lineup that ranked 14th in the NL in slugging and OPS, with only Willy Adames cracking the 20-homer barrier.
2023 record: 75-87
2023 final ranking: 22
Hey, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer did end up reaching the LCS — just not with the Mets, after the club gave up on 2023 at the trade deadline. What we know: Buck Showalter and Billy Eppler are out, and former Brewers GM Stearns takes over the baseball operations department. What we don’t know: Are the Mets all-in for 2024? At his introductory news conference, Stearns played it down the middle: “We are going to do our best to put together a team in 2024 that is competitive. And we’re going to do it in a way that does not detract from our competitiveness in the future years.”
Stearns did more with less in Milwaukee, but now he’ll have to prove he can do more with more. That didn’t work for the Mets in 2023 and we’re left to wonder if perhaps 2022, when the Mets won 101 games, was just a fluke season spliced between what remains a mediocre base of talent. Perhaps the best way to “thread the needle” — as Stearns put it — is to simply use owner Steve Cohen’s money to go after Ohtani and Yamamoto, two players who will help in 2024 … and beyond.
2023 record: 78-84
2023 final ranking: 21
The Tigers appear to finally be moving in the right direction. They had a winning record in the second half, when the rotation had the seventh-best ERA in the majors. Tarik Skubal was a beast when he returned in July, with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts and terrific peripherals. Reese Olson had a promising rookie season. If they can keep Matt Manning healthy (he had two separate IL stints after getting hit twice in the right foot), get Casey Mize back from Tommy John surgery and have Eduardo Rodriguez stick around (he has an opt-out clause), this could be a really good rotation.
That leaves the offense, which was better — Spencer Torkelson finally broke out in the second half and finished with 31 home runs — but still needs a lot of help. Colt Keith should plug the hole at third base after hitting .306 with 27 home runs in the minors. Getting Miguel Cabrera’s $32 million off the books will be nice and, frankly, the Tigers have a lot of payroll room here. I’m not sure this is the year president of baseball ops Scott Harris decides to ramp up the payroll, especially given the weak market for free agents, but even some second-tier free agents would help the lineup depth.
2023 record: 82-80
2023 final ranking: 15
Look, there’s no doubt the Reds were one of the fun stories of 2023, hanging in the wild-card race until the final few days of the season. Maybe I’m underrating them here; after all, there is the exciting class of rookie position players in Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte to build upon (plus starters Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson). De La Cruz became an instant highlight sensation, but he’s more hype than production right now (144 strikeouts and a .300 OBP in 98 games). I can’t get past the rotation questions: a 5.43 ERA, 28th in the majors, and it didn’t really improve over the course of the season. Cincinnati will have to upgrade the pitching — perhaps dealing from that excess of young infielders — to look like anything more than a .500 team.
2023 record: 76-86
2023 final ranking: 20
There are reasons to be optimistic about what Cleveland might do in 2024: The AL Central remains soft, and rookie starters Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams all impressed, combining for a 3.35 ERA across 65 starts. Hopefully, Triston McKenzie will be at full strength after injuries limited him to four starts, and Shane Bieber is still here — although he’s in his final year of arbitration, which means a trade is possible. The Guardians have to replace Terry Francona, however, and while it’s impossible to give an exact number on wins a manager can add, we may just find out how valuable Francona has been. More problematic: fixing the offense, which ranked last in the majors in home runs, including at pathetic 18 from its outfielders.
2023 record: 76-86
2023 final ranking: 23
Are the Pirates making progress? Manager Derek Shelton thought so by the end of the season, saying he was encouraged by the team’s final two months. “We’re playing better baseball but we’re also — and this may sound a little different — we’re getting things out of the way,” he said. I’m not sure exactly what Shelton meant, but it sounds like a nice way of saying this is no longer the atrocious 100-loss teams of 2021 and 2022. GM Ben Cherington even said the team would “have the resources we need to get better and to compete and contend” in 2024.
Of course, given owner Bob Nutting’s history, what does that mean? Increasing payroll from $71 million to $100 million? Bottom line: The Pirates still have a long way to go. They were 24th in the majors in rotation ERA and 13th in the NL in runs. Top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry David hardly looked like impact players, and Davis had to play out of position in right field. It will help if No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes is ready to jump into the rotation, but they need to upgrade the infield.
2023 record: 84-78
2023 final ranking: 14
It was an exciting season for the Marlins: Their first winning season in a full schedule since 2009, their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2003, Luis Arraez winning the batting title, young starters Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett making 30 starts for the first time and Eury Perez flashing signs of future stardom. So why the low ranking? The season ended with the controversial departure of GM Kim Ng and the stability of the organization once again teeters on the ledge.
I just don’t think Miami enters the offseason in a strong position. The Marlins were minus-57 in run differential, with their record propped up by a 33-14 record in one-run games (and it’s not like the bullpen was especially effective). They were last in the NL in runs scored. Ace Sandy Alcantara will miss the season with Tommy John surgery and the farm system is weak. The owner may be a problem. Good luck to the GM.
2023 record: 71-91
2023 final ranking: 25
The Cardinals suffered their first losing season since 2007 and their first 90-loss season since 1990, so the front office will be tested more than it has been in decades in reshaping the club for 2024. There’s certainly more talent here than your typical 91-loss team, but it’s also important to remember that Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado produced an estimated 67 fewer runs than in 2022 — and they’re not getting any younger. Of course, the biggest challenge is fixing a rotation that ranked 26th in the majors with a 5.08 ERA — and that could put president of baseball ops John Mozeliak in the uncomfortable position of spending some money on free agents.
2023 record: 79-83
2023 final ranking: 18
The Giants lost 83 games and fired manager Gabe Kapler — and they may have overachieved just to do that well (at least in the first half, when they were eight games over .500). Bob Melvin takes over at manager, and perhaps some of the thinking there is hiring the understated Melvin will help bring free agents to San Francisco. The second half exposed the team’s lack of star talent, which is why Vegas oddsmakers have made the Giants one of the favorites to land Ohtani and why baseball operations president Farhan Zaidi made a recent trip to Japan to scout Yamamoto. GM Pete Putila was also in South Korea scouting center fielder Jung-hoo Lee. They’ll also need to replace Brandon Crawford, the team’s long-time shortstop. Marco Luciano was once the heir apparent, but his prospect hype has faded, and he may not be the answer.
2023 record: 73-89
2023 final ranking: 24
Take away Ohtani’s 10.0 WAR and what are you left with? Let’s do some quick math. With Ohtani, the Angels ranked 21st in the majors in WAR. Subtract 10 and they fall to 26th. Which is about where I’m putting them here. There’s a non-zero chance they trade Mike Trout — but given Trout played just 82 games and had the worst OPS of his career while turning 32 in August and is owed a ton of money through 2030, that feels unlikely. Obviously, their offseason hinges on re-signing Ohtani, but you do wonder what their Plan B might look like.
2023 record: 71-91
2023 final ranking: 26
The Nationals were last in this space a season ago and finished with a more respectable record than anticipated, avoiding the 100 losses many believed were coming. They worked in some young guys, with mixed results. The underlying talent here is still thin: They were last in the NL in home runs while allowing the most home runs, and that’s not going to work. The rotation was also healthy with the top five starters combining for 143 starts — that probably won’t happen again. If Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore make a leap forward and James Wood and Dylan Crews can impact the offense in the second half, Washington will at least be interesting, but it wouldn’t shock me to see regression back to 100 losses (unless additions are made in the offseason).
2023 record: 50-112
2023 final ranking: 30
Wait, not last? The franchise more interested in promoting architectural renderings of a new ballpark in Las Vegas than winning games in Oakland? The franchise with an owner in John Fisher who is so disliked that pitcher Trevor May retired and deplored him to sell the team to “someone who actually takes pride in things they own”? The franchise that just lost 112 games? Well, the A’s will certainly be bad in 2024, but they did improve in the second half, dropping their run differential from minus-248 to minus-91. After a nightmare first half, the rotation lowered its ERA from 6.32 to 4.97 — which isn’t anything to brag about but is a small indicator that the team won’t be quite so awful again.
2023 record: 56-106
2023 final ranking: 29
The Royals have two starters rostered who made more than 12 starts in 2023 — and both had ERAs over five and a half. They don’t have a single reliever returning who pitched at least 20 innings and had an ERA under 4.00. They do have Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans, who had a breakout performance the final two months and looks like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. A healthy Vinnie Pasquantino will help, and maybe Nelson Velazquez will show up, but the pitching staff basically needs to be completely re-constructed — with a farm system that has little to offer.
2023 record: 59-103
2023 final ranking: 28
The worst offensive team in the majors via wRC+ (weighted runs created), Colorado has to find some hitters. Just once, wouldn’t it be fun for the Rockies to bring in some superstar sluggers? They have some hitting prospects of interest down on the farm, although I’m lukewarm about most of them. Guys like Jordan Beck, Yanquiel Fernandez and Zac Veen all scuffled when they reached Double-A, so I don’t see any impact in 2024 from that group. The Rockies are coming off 103 losses. Hopefully that will be rock bottom, but this is an organization wandering in the baseball desert without any grand plan.
2023 record: 61-101
2023 final ranking: 27
That was a disaster. The White Sox lost 101 games, their most since 1970 (a team so bad it averaged fewer than 6,000 fans per game). Longtime executives Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn were fired in August with farm director Chris Getz taking over as general manager, even though the farm system hasn’t exactly been pumping out quality prospects. Pedro Grifol will get another chance as manager even though the team fell apart in the second half (23-47, minus-133 run differential). Maybe they’ll spend some money in the offseason, and maybe some of the better players will rebound, but the White Sox enter the offseason as the most dysfunctional organization of 2023.
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Sports
How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame
Published
2 hours agoon
January 9, 2025By
admin-
David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterJan 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.
Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.
Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.
The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.
“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard flipped over him for the first down 😯 pic.twitter.com/p1JNgmQOCw
— ESPN (@espn) January 3, 2025
Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.
“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”
Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.
“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”
It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.
Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.
“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”
Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.
Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.
Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.
Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.
He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.
Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.
None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.
Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.
Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.
For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.
“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”
It didn’t start out that way though.
Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.
That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.
“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.
Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.
“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”
Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.
“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”
After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.
But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.
“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”
And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.
“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”
He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.
But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.
The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.
“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”
He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.
“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”
Sports
How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame
Published
7 hours agoon
January 9, 2025By
admin-
David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterJan 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.
Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.
Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.
The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.
“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard flipped over him for the first down 😯 pic.twitter.com/p1JNgmQOCw
— ESPN (@espn) January 3, 2025
Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.
“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”
Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.
“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”
It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.
Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.
“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”
Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.
Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.
Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.
Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.
He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.
Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.
None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.
Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.
Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.
For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.
“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”
It didn’t start out that way though.
Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.
That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.
“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.
Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.
“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”
Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.
“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”
After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.
But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.
“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”
And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.
“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”
He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.
But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.
The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.
“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”
He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.
“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”
Sports
Can Penn State coach James Franklin win the big one?
Published
7 hours agoon
January 9, 2025By
admin-
Heather Dinich, Senior College Football InsiderJan 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of Indiana University
There’s no sugarcoating it: As Penn State‘s coach, James Franklin owns an abysmal 4-19 record against opponents ranked in the Associated Press top 10 — and is just 3-10 in such games when his team is also in the top 10.
It’s a mark that saw a small but significant boost with Penn State’s resounding 31-14 College Football Playoff quarterfinal win against No. 8-ranked Boise State in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, but with each step forward in the CFP bracket comes a greater opportunity — and louder doubters about Franklin’s ability to beat the best.
As the Big Ten runner-up and No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff, the narrative surrounding Penn State was that they had arguably the easiest path to the national title — a home game against overmatched No. 11 seed SMU, followed by a matchup against Mountain West Conference champion and No. 3 seed Boise State. The Nittany Lions outscored their first two playoff opponents by a combined 69-24.
Now Franklin is two wins away from the school’s first national championship since 1986, but in order to win it, he has to do something that has eluded him during most of his career: beat a top-5 team. He is 1-14 at Penn State against AP Top-5 teams, the lone win coming in 2016 against No. 2 Ohio State. By comparison, former Alabama coach Nick Saban (30-16), former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer (14-5) and Georgia coach Kirby Smart (11-7) all have winning records against AP Top-5 opponents, according to ESPN Research. Ohio State coach Ryan Day, though, is 5-6 against them, and former Penn State coach Joe Paterno was 3-12 in his first 15 games against AP Top-5 teams at Penn State.
Franklin is also 0-5 against teams ranked in the top five by the CFP selection committee, and he has lost those games by an average of 20.4 points according to ESPN Research. The Nittany Lions will face Notre Dame (No. 3 AP/No. 5 CFP) on Thursday in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in what is undoubtedly the biggest game of Franklin’s career.
Franklin “understands” his fans’ frustration. He declined to comment for this story but said this following a 20-13 loss to No. 4 Ohio State on Nov. 2: “Nobody is looking in the mirror harder than I am. I’ve said this before, but 99% of the programs across college football would die to do what we’ve been able to do in our time here.”
Despite his struggles against top teams, Franklin enters the Orange Bowl with a record of 101-41 and is 64-33 in the Big Ten over the past decade in State College. That includes five top-10 finishes, a Big Ten title (2016) and regular appearances in New Year’s Six bowl games. Under Franklin, Penn State joins Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State as the only programs that have ranked in the selection committee’s final top 12 at least seven of the past nine seasons.
He has six years left on his contract and the support of his administration.
“I’m not going to give credence to the criticism, because I see it differently,” said Penn State athletic director Patrick Kraft, who was hired at Penn State on July 1, 2022 after serving two years as the athletic director at Boston College. “When I got here, I was really surprised where just the infrastructure and how everything was set up, how behind we really were. Yes, wins and losses are what we are all judged on, but I will tell you, the culture of that building and the young men he brings in and graduates are second to none.
“You don’t see behind the curtain as a fan or just someone watching,” Kraft said, “and when you get behind the curtain, the thing that oozes out for me is culture and family. That’s really how it’s built, but the infrastructure behind it wasn’t matching that culture and we still have a ways to go. So yes, we want to win every single game — that’s the expectation for every program, but to see what he has done and that consistency is what’s remarkable to me.”
As a former Big Ten head coach who spent seven seasons leading Indiana, first-year Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen has studied the Nittany Lions from the inside out. He has game-planned against Franklin, and now he’s trying to help Franklin win his first national title. Allen heard Franklin’s critics when he was at Indiana, and he has heard them again as a member of Franklin’s staff.
“Now that I’m here and I see the behind-the-scenes and the day-to-day and see how much of a bulldog he is — that’s the word I use — he’s a bulldog for the details and the little things and just being on top of everything,” Allen said. “To me, those criticisms, they’re not fair, but until you win those big games, they’re going to be there. And I think we all as coaches understand that.”
What Franklin has accomplished so far is often overshadowed by what he hasn’t. According to ESPN Research, when Franklin won his 100th game at Penn State in the first-round against SMU, he became the fourth FBS coach to win 100 games at a single school since he headed to State College in 2014. The career milestone put him in elite company, joining Dabo Swinney at Clemson (129 since 2014), Nick Saban at Alabama (127 from 2014-23) and Kirby Smart at Georgia (105 since 2016).
There’s one thing separating Franklin from the rest of the group, though — multiple national titles.
“We don’t run away from the expectation,” Kraft said. “Being the head coach of Penn State, there’s so much scrutiny on him and he handles it really well internally. He and I are partners in this.”
One current Big Ten head coach said the expectations of Franklin should mirror the resources he has to work with.
“Ryan Day has been in championships, Clemson has been in championships, Bama has won them, Michigan has won them,” he said. “If the Penn State expectation is they should have at least played for championships in 10 years of his tenure, then no, he’s not successful, right? If their expectation is, ‘Hey, we only have resourced him to be a 10-win team, January 1 bowl team, right at the bottom of the blue bloods from a resource standpoint — which I don’t know — then yeah, he matches the expectations of a 10-win guy. If you’re a blue blood, are you being resourced like Clemson, like Michigan, like Ohio State, like the people we’re comparing them to, because it’s not fair to have that expectation if he hasn’t had the resources.”
Kraft said so much of Penn State’s growth under Franklin has come behind the scenes with things like working to build the budget for NIL, salaries for assistant coaches, stadium renovations and improvements for Penn State’s student-athletes in all sports in areas such as mental health, nutrition and travel — all things that ultimately contribute to winning a national title but happen off the field.
“You have to build the infrastructure in-house,” Kraft said. “That is what I think has really improved is allowing him — and all of our sports — to go and do the things they need to do internally to get to the championship level.”
A second Big Ten head coach said the most noticeable improvements with Penn State and Franklin this year are twofold: the hire of two proven coordinators in Allen and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and Franklin’s overall growth as a head coach in certain situations.
“James has surrounded himself, in my opinion, with maybe the best coordinator combo in our league,” the source said. “Now James has been able to manage games and do the things he’s good at for the first time. He’s at a different level as a head coach.
“I get it, I get the narrative,” the coach said, “but that’s probably based on more of the past than the present. Even him having a better understanding of how you’ve got to use your players. He’s been at Penn State so long, he’s always been the favorite, so when he gets in these games where he’s the underdog, you’ve got to not only play different, you’ve got to strategize different. And when he ran that fake punt against Minnesota … I don’t think he’s ever had to do that before, and he’s kind of realizing, this is what I’ve got to do to win this game. I can’t just win it on my talent alone. And there’s a learning curve for that.”
Kotelnicki said Franklin doesn’t get enough credit for being as consistently good as he has. From 2016 to 2019, Franklin led Penn State to 42 wins, the most in program history for the Big Ten era, and a school-record 28 conference wins.
“It’s really hard to win, and to do it over a decade like he has as a head football coach here, it’s really hard,” Kotelnicki said in the Nittany Lions’ locker room following their win against Boise State. “I’ve had the opportunity in my life to work with some pretty good head coaches. He’s in elite company for sure. So I don’t know if [beating Boise State] is going to silence the critics — probably not. … But I hope it does [calm down] a little bit for his sake. He deserves a little, ‘Alright, OK, I guess he’s OK.'”
Penn State’s defense was more than “OK” in the Fiesta Bowl win against Boise State, and it will have to play at a championship-caliber level for Franklin to improve his record and advance against the Irish. According to ESPN Research, the defense is at the heart of Penn State’s problem in previous top-10 matchups. The Nittany Lions have allowed 31 points per game in those matchups and 422 total yards. The defense has also allowed 190 rushing yards per game under Franklin in top-10 matchups.
Against Boise State and Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman runner-up was held to a season-low 104 rushing yards. That trend will need to continue: Notre Dame has relied on its running game this season, ranking in the top five in yards per rush and rushing touchdowns.
Penn State will be playing its third AP Top-5 matchup of the season, losing the previous two games against Ohio State and Oregon. The program’s woes run deeper than Franklin, too: The Nittany Lions haven’t won a top-five matchup since 1999 against No. 4 Arizona.
“You just have to do a great job of blocking that out, but also not being afraid to dig and find ways to create change,” Allen said. “That’s what I see him doing, is, ‘Hey, what can we do?’ and there’s this constant evaluation of how we practice, the game plans if something doesn’t go a certain way. I see him just being so relentless in that as the leader of our program. So to me, I just think it’s a matter of time.”
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