Sam Bankman-Fried faces over 100 years in prison at sentencing. Experts weigh in on how much time he’ll actually get
A jury of twelve found FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all seven criminal charges brought against him. The question of how long he’ll remain in prison, however, is one that Judge Lewis Kaplan will spend the next few months deliberating by himself.
The no-nonsense 78-year-old judge is a veteran of the Southern District of New York and has presided over some of the biggest cases to roll through the courthouse at 500 Pearl Street in downtown Manhattan.
Kaplan is straightforward and has no patience for pageantry in his courtroom. If a witness is deliberately avoiding a question, or an attorney is being redundant and sloppy in his cross-examination, Judge Kaplan is quick to admonish the offender and set the conversation back on course. He also has no problem calling out members of the gallery for chewing gum in his courtroom.
The judge’s lack of patience with Bankman-Fried during the defendant’s four days on the stand was obvious to anyone who was there — or who later read the transcript.
The 31-year-old graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology was a sight to behold on the stand. Under direct examination, he would sometimes rush through convoluted, repetitive and contradictory sentences.
“So I should preface this by saying I’m not a lawyer,” Bankman-Fried began one answer.
“I’m not giving a legal interpretation of this. I’m just giving, as best I can, what my memory is. And the parts of this that jibe with that, I, you know — I’m not trying to give a definitive legal ruling on what this does or doesn’t say. The — I’m not sure that I would quite answer yes to the question as you most recently phrased it. I’m going to try as best I can to give the answer that I believe, which is that the — as — at least as I remember understanding it at the time, FTX either itself or I think as actually happened, without FTX as an intermediary, customers’ fiat funds would be sent to Alameda bank accounts, FTX would retain a — effectively a debt from Alameda for those and a — in the lien section here, a lien on Alameda’s assets as security for that ongoing liability, that it would be repayable on direction from FTX in the return section here, and — and in the payment directive section.”
Later, on cross-examination, Bankman-Fried suddenly clammed up, replying with “Yup,” and “I don’t recall,” hundreds of times. After several dozen of these instances, the government often presented evidence that would either directly refute the defendant’s testimony or offer an answer to the question Bankman-Fried had dodged.
Multiple litigators told CNBC that Bankman-Fried’s combative attitude toward Assistant U.S. attorney, Danielle Sassoon, wasn’t a good look for the jury or judge either.
So now, the question of prison time goes to Judge Kaplan. The sentencing date is March 28 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Government exhibit in the case against former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
Source: SDNY
Decades behind bars
Bankman-Fried was convicted of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud against FTX customers and against Alameda Research lenders, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and conspiracy to commit commodities fraud against FTX investors, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.
That the jury was able to reach a unanimous verdict in a just few hours suggests that they were truly convinced and that there were no holdouts that needed to be coaxed, Yesha Yadav, law professor and Associate Dean at Vanderbilt University, told CNBC.
“This overwhelming consensus should give the judge confidence to follow the jury’s decisiveness by imposing a more severe sentence than a lighter one,” continued Yadav.
In this case, the statutory maximum sentence is around 115 years, but there is a sliding scale for sentencing according to recommended guidelines given the scale of the crimes and the criminal history of the defendant.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if SBF spends the next 20 or 25 years of his life in prison,” Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Section, told CNBC.
“The sheer scale of his fraud was immense, he was defiant and lied on the witness stand, and Judge Kaplan had very little patience for his antics while out on bond. He will have more sympathy for the victims than he has for Bankman-Fried,” added Mariotti.
Caroline Ellison, former chief executive officer of Alameda Research LLC, leaves Manhattan Federal Court after testifying during the trial of FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, on October 10, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
In August, Judge Kaplan revoked Bankman-Fried’s bail and sent him back to jail for witness tampering.
“The federal sentencing guidelines will likely be sky high, but they are just that — guidelines — and the judge is required to consider all of the circumstances surrounding SBF and his offense,” said Mariotti.
Yadav added that the issue of sentencing is governed by guidelines that look to factors such as how many have been harmed and the overall dollar quantum, as well as the seriousness of the damage a defendant has inflicted.
“Here, there are some factors that could push the judge toward a very lengthy prison term, possibly close to the 110 years that the sentencing guidelines suggest,” said Yadav.
The sentence will come down to what the judge believes is sufficient to punish Bankman-Fried, deter others, and promote respect for the law, he added.
Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Kevin J. O’Brien, who specializes in white-collar criminal defense in NYC, agreed, saying that, “Since judges have discretion even under the Guidelines, I believe his sentence will be in the 15 to 20 year range.”
O’Brien added that given Bankman Fried’s age, he thinks the judge will be inclined to give him a chance to live a full life after his prison term.
Bankman-Fried’s case has been compared with that of Elizabeth Holmes, founder of medical device company Theranos, which ceased operations in 2018.
Holmes, 39, was convicted in early 2022 on four counts of defrauding investors in Theranos after testifying in her own defense. She was sentenced to more than 11 years in prison, and began serving her punishment in May at a minimum-security facility in Bryan, Texas.
But former federal prosecutor Paul Tuchmann tells CNBC that he expects harsher terms for the former FTX CEO, because “the amount of losses that were suffered is simply staggering.”
Tuchmann compared Bankman-Fried’s case to that of Bernie Madoff, who was sentenced to 150 years in prison.
“Like Madoff, a lot of the losses in this case were small investors. They weren’t all large institutions, which really tends to create a greater pressure for a significant sentence,” said Tuchmann.
“Certainly, there may be some mitigation here. Sam Bankman-Fried is very young. The judge may take that into consideration. Bernie Madoff went to jail for 150 years when he was obviously much older – with limited productive years left,” Yadav said of the Madoff comparison.
“Sam Bankman-Fried still has an opportunity to make some kind of positive contribution during his lifetime. His crimes are also not violent in nature,” continued Yadav.
Another wild card is the fact that the Department of Justice may bring a second, entirely different case with separate charges against Bankman-Fried in Mar. 2024. The government has until Feb. 1 to let the court know if it plans to still proceed.
“A further issue here is that sentencing will take place in March 2024 – very close to the second criminal trial that Sam Bankman-Fried faces for campaign finance violations and bribery of foreign officials,” said Yadav. “The prosecution is likely to feel very confident going into this next trial. In other words, if he is also found guilty on these additional charges, he may see an even longer sentence potentially than the multiple decades worth of time (at least) that he is looking at presently.”
Forget the patio set. This Memorial Day, the real deals are on EVs. While some savings, including the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, could soon disappear, there’s still time to take advantage of the discounts. We rounded up all the EVs you can lease right now for under $300 a month.
Best EV lease deals this Memorial Day
After a record year with over 1.3 million EVs sold in the US in 2024, several new models arrived this year, giving you more options than ever.
Nearly 300,0000 electric vehicles were sold in the first three months of the year. New Acura, Chevy, Honda, and Porsche EVs helped drive sales higher.
General Motors sold over 30,000 EVs in Q1, surpassing Ford and Hyundai Motors to become the second-best seller of EVs behind Tesla. Chevy is now the fastest-growing EV brand with the new Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs sparking growth.
Honda and Acura are getting into the game, selling over 14,000 EVs in the US in the first quarter, which is up from zero just a year ago.
According to S&P Global Mobility (via Automotive News), new models, including the Honda Prologue and Chevy Equinox EV, pushed EV registrations up 20% in March. Both are available to lease for under $300 this month.
Hyundai and Kia Memorial EV lease deals
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2025 Kia Niro EV | $129 | 24 | $3,999 | $295 |
| 2024 Kia EV6 | $179 | 24 | $3,999 | $345 |
| 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 | $209 | 24 | $3,999 | $375 |
| 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 | $169 | 24 | $3,999 | $335 |
Kia and Hyundai continue to offer some of the most affordable, efficient electric vehicles on the market. The Niro EV is one of the cheapest EVs you can lease in May at just $129 per month.
The new 2025 IONIQ 5, now with more range and a Tesla NACS charging port, and the IONIQ 6 are arriving with significant discounts.
Last month, Hyundai launched a promo giving those who buy or lease a new 2024 or 2025 model year IONIQ 5 or IONIQ 6 a free ChargePoint Level 2 home charger. If you already have one, you can also opt for a $400 public charging credit.
Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2024 Honda Prologue | $239 | 36 | $1,399 | $335 |
| 2024 Acura ZDX | $299 | 24 | $2,999 | $424 |
Honda’s electric SUV is on a hot streak. In the second half of 2024, the Prologue was the second-best-selling electric SUV behind the Tesla Model Y. Through April, Honda’s electric SUV remained a top seller with nearly 11,500 models sold.
With an ultra-low lease rate of just $239 per month, the Prologue is even more affordable than a Civic this month. No wonder sales are surging.
Honda launched the 2025 model earlier this month, which now offers more range (up to 308 miles) and power, but retains the same low starting price.
This Memorial Day, Acura’s luxury electric SUV is one of the best EV deals and is actually cheaper to lease than the Honda CR-V. The ZDX can be leased for as low as $299 for 24 months. With only $2,999 due at signing, the effective cost is just $424 per month. In some states, ZDX discounts reach as high as $28,000, also making it more affordable than a Civic to lease this month.
Chevy Blazer and Equinox EVs
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2024 Chevy Equinox EV | $299 | 24 | $3,169 | $431 |
| 2025 Chevy Equinox EV | $289 | 24 | $2,399 | $389 |
| 2024 Chevy Blazer EV | $299 | 24 | $3,879 | $461 |
Chevy’s new electric SUVs are quickly rolling out. The electric Equinox was among the top five best-selling EVs in the final three months of 2024. Both can be leased for under $300 a month this Memorial Day. The Blazer EV is still slightly more expensive, at $3,879. Keep in mind that the Blazer EV deal also includes a $1,000 trade-in bonus.
The electric Equinox SUV, or “America’s most affordable +315 miles range EV,” as Chevy calls it, is even cheaper than the gas model this month with up to $8,500 in savings.
Chevy’s new 2025 Equinox is even more affordable at just $289 for 24 months. With $2,399 due at signing, you’ll pay only $389 per month.
Ford F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E | $213 | 36 | $4,462 | $337 |
| 2024 Ford F-150 Lightning | $233 | 24 | $6,792 | $421 |
Ford’s F-150 Lightning overtook the Tesla Cybertruck to regain its title as America’s best-selling electric pickup in March. The Mach-E remains one of the top-selling EVs with over 14,500 models sold through April.
Ford is sweetening the deal with a free Level 2 home charger for any EV purchase or lease through its “Power Promise,” along with a host of other benefits.
Toyota bZ4X and Subaru Solterra
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2025 Toyota bZ4X | $259 | 36 | $2,999 | $342 |
| 2024 Subaru Solterra | $279 | 36 | $279 | $287 |
| 2025 Subaru Solterra | $299 | 36 | $299 | $307 |
Japanese automakers are starting to find their rhythm. Toyota bZ4X and Subaru Solterra sales are finally picking up. With an effective cost of only $287 per month, the Solterra may be the better option this month, especially with its standard AWD.
After cutting lease prices this month, the 2025 Subaru Solterra is now listed at just $299 for 36 months. With $299 due at signing, the effective monthly cost is only $307.
Other EV lease Deals at under $300 this Memorial Day
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2025 Nissan LEAF | $259 | 36 | $2,279 | $322 |
| 2025 Nissan Ariya | $129 | 36 | $4,409 | $251 |
| Fiat 500e | $159 | 24 | $1,999 | $242 |
In some states, Nissan is offering Ariya lease prices as low as $129 for 36 months. That’s with $4,409 due at signing for an effective cost of $251. For an electric SUV with an MSRP of nearly $42,000, that’s a steal.
Some of these rates may vary by region. The $239 per month Honda Prologue lease deal is offered in California and other ZEV states. Acura’s $299 ZDX promo is only available in California, New York, Oregon, and other select states.
In other parts of the country, the Prologue is still listed at just $269 per month for 36 months. With $3,199 due at signing, the effective monthly cost is still just $358. However, a $1,000 conquest or loyalty offer can lower monthly payments to around $330.
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill Act” was passed by House Republicans on Thursday, essentially ending the $7,500 EV tax credit and other clean energy incentives. By the end of 2025, automakers that have delivered over 200,000 electric vehicles in the US will lose access. In other words, they won’t be able to pass it on to you, the buyer.
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This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes a new launch of a full-suspension e-bike from Velotric, Yamaha-backed company’s plan for battery swapping in electric bicycles, buying a super-cheap e-bike from China, testing the Meepo Flow electric skateboard, PodBike closes its doors, the impending launch of the Royal Enfield Flying Flea electric motorcycle, and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We also have a Patreon if you want to help us to avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 8:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 9:00 a.m. ET):
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Oil prices held near two-week highs in early trading on Wednesday, supported by an agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower their reciprocal tariffs and a falling U.S. dollar.
Imaginima | E+ | Getty Images
A protracted slump in crude prices has ramped up the pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to allocate cash to shareholders.
Western energy supermajors have long sought to return cash to investors through buyback programs and dividends to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives have also expressed confidence that they can continue to reward investors following a relatively robust set of first-quarter earnings.
Some analysts, however, are less convinced about Big Oil’s pledge to return ever-higher shareholder returns, citing already stretched balance sheets and a sharp drop in crude prices.
Oil prices have fallen more than 12% year-to-date amid persistent demand concerns and U.S. President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth trade policy.
Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at consultancy Rystad Energy, said recent market volatility has left the energy majors with “few economically attractive options” that allow for reinvestment while maintaining a competitive capital returns framework.
“As companies like Shell and ExxonMobil continue to push ahead with large-scale buyback programs despite shrinking cash inflows, the durability of these strategies is in question. For now, the majors are holding the line. But if oil prices remain depressed, adjustments may be inevitable,” Erlingsen said in a research note published Thursday.
Share buybacks, which are typically more flexible than dividends, are “likely to be the first lever pulled,” he added. In that vein, weaker crude prices mean energy majors will have less cash to return to shareholders.
BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Investor concern over the sustainability of Big Oil’s shareholder returns comes after a year of record-breaking payouts.
Analysts at Rystad said total shareholder rewards from the likes of Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed to a whopping $119 billion in 2024, beating the previous record set in 2023.
The payout ratio, which refers to shareholder payouts as a share of corporate cash flow from operations (CFFO), meanwhile jumped up to 56% last year, Rystad said. That was well above the 30% to 40% range that was typical for the industry from 2012 through to 2022, the analysts added.
If shareholder payouts were to remain at 2024 levels throughout 2025, Rystad said this would imply companies distribute more than 80% of their cash flow to investors. The estimate was based on Big Oil’s first-quarter CFFO as a proxy for full-year performance.
Point of maximum weakness
For European majors, analysts at Bank of America said at the start of the year in a note entitled “bye-bye buybacks?” that it anticipated cuts in such returns, from companies whose balance sheets were already stretched.
The Wall Street bank cited BP, Repsol and Eni at the time. It added that only Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor were among the regional players likely to keep their respective 2025 buyback run-rates intact.
Spokespersons for Repsol and Eni were not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
So far, BP is the only European energy major to have trimmed its buyback run-rate. The beleaguered British oil company last month posted a sharp fall in first-quarter profit and reduced its share buyback to $750 million, down from $1.75 billion in the prior quarter.
BP, which has been the subject of intense takeover speculation, also reported significantly lower cash flow and rising net debt for the first quarter.
Lydia Rainforth, head of European energy, equity research at Barclays, said BP’s future appears to be “really bright” — on the condition that the company can get through the next six months.
“If I think about when is that point of maximum weakness for BP, it is over the next six months, ultimately. Debt continues to go up a little bit, production continues to fall until mid-2026,” Rainforth told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Thursday.
“As I get towards the end of the year, hopefully we’ll see that sum of divestments taking down debt. Things like … selling their lubricants business, that could raise between $12 billion to $15 billion. It brings down debt, you start to see the benefit of cost savings coming through, and then production growth starts kicking in next year,” she added.
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