Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead.
But it doesn’t feel likely from the language we’ve heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.
He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel’s right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.
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0:35
‘What will it take for a pause in Gaza?’
The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.
“Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details.”
Those “details” were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.
He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That’s more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.
He added that the situation in Gaza will create “a sea of hatred that will define generations to come”.
That’s the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done – hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides – but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Image: Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza
What’s the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?
The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language – a humanitarian pause.
What’s the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There’s no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.
A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.
Image: A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP
Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas
So what’s the problem? Well, Israel doesn’t believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won’t be passed to Hamas for war purposes.
America’s special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.
But that hasn’t prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden’s America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?
Image: Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP
Gaza fuel will only last a few days
What’s at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.
Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.
There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.
Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that’s about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.
These are the “details” as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.
Donald Trump had a heated phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his military targeted Hamas inside Qatar, according to a report.
The American president told Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday that the decision to strike inside the US ally’s territory was not wise, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior administration officials.
The Israeli prime minister responded by saying he had a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity, according to the newspaper.
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3:36
Anger over Israeli strikes on Qatar
A second call between the two leaders later that day was cordial, with Mr Trump asking Mr Netanyahu if the attack had been successful, the publication added.
Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas with the attack in the Qatari capital Doha on Tuesday.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been hosting and mediating in negotiations which are trying to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu warned Qatar to either expel Hamas officials or “bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will”.
Qatar has hit back at him, saying his comments about the Gulf nation hosting a Hamas office were “reckless”.
Image: Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said that if Israel failed to kill Hamas leaders on Tuesday, it would succeed next time.
“We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be… we’re going to pursue them, and we’re going to destroy those who will destroy us,” he said.
In another development, Sir Keir Starmer has had talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Downing Street, with Mr Herzog saying they argued during a “tough meeting”.
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0:19
PM meets Israeli president
PM condemns Israeli action
The prime minister has condemned the Israeli attack in Qatar, and raised the matter with the president, saying it was “completely unacceptable”.
“He said the strikes were a flagrant violation of a key partner’s sovereignty and do nothing to secure the peace we all desperately want to see,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.
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Israel has been angered by Britain’s plans to join several other Western countries, including France and Canada, in recognising a Palestinian state later this month – unless Israel meets conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza.
“Things were said that were tough and strong, and clearly we can argue, because when allies meet, they can argue. We are both democracies,” Mr Herzog said at an event at Chatham House.
He also proposed offering a “fact-finding mission” to Israel, “sitting with us and studying the situation in Gaza on the humanitarian level”.
“Because we have full answers, and we are fully transparent,” he said.
The unprecedented Russian drone attacks on Poland are both a test and a warning. How Europe and NATO respond could be crucial to security on this continent.
The Russians are past masters at what’s called “salami slicing”. Tactics that use a series of smaller actions to produce a much bigger outcome that otherwise would have been far more provocative.
Image: Vladimir Putin has a history of testing the West. Pic: Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters
Putin is good at this.
He used salami slicing tactics masterfully in 2014 with his “little green men” invasion of Crimea, a range of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The West’s confused delay in responding sealed Crimea’s fate.
He has just taken a larger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland.
Image: A drone found in a field in Mniszkow, eastern Poland
They are of course a test of NATO’s readiness to deploy its Article 5 obligations. Russia has attacked a member state, allies believe deliberately.
Will NATO trigger the all for one, one for all mechanism in Poland’s defence and attack Russia? Not very likely.
But failing to respond projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plot the next one.
Expect lots of talk of sanctions but remember they failed to avert this invasion and have failed to persuade Russia to reverse it. The only sanctions likely to bite are the ones the US president refuses to approve, on Russia’s oil trade.
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6:16
Russia’s Poland incursion represents ‘new chapter’ in Ukraine war, expert says
So how are the drones also a warning? Well, they pose a question.
Vladimir Putin is asking the West if it really wants to become more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering putting boots on the ground inside Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.
If this latest attack is awkward and complicated and hard to respond to now, what happens if Russia uses hybrid tactics then?
Deniable, ambiguous methods that the Russians excel in could make life very difficult for the alliance if it is embroiled in Ukraine.
Think twice before committing your troops there, Russia is warning the West.
Riot police have clashed with protesters in Paris after they took to the streets in response to calls to ‘Block Everything’ over discontent with the French government.
Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of the French capital and other cities, including Marseille and Montpellier, in response to the online ‘Bloquons Tout’ campaign, which is urging people to strike, block roads, and other public services.
The government has deployed more than 80,000 officers to respond to the unrest, which has seen 200 arrested nationwide so far, according to police, and comes on the same day the new prime minister is being sworn in.
Demonstrators were seen rolling bins into the middle of roads to stop cars, while police rushed to remove the makeshift blockades as quickly as possible.
Tear gas was used by police outside Paris‘s Gare du Nord train station, where around 1,000 gathered, clutching signs declaring Wednesday a public holiday.
Others in the city blocked the entrance to a high school where firefighters were forced to remove burnt objects from a barricade.
Image: Riot police with shields face off with protesters in Paris. Pic: Reuters
Image: Protesters block the streets in Paris on Wednesday. Pic: AP
Image: “Block Everything” blockade a street in Paris. Pic: Reuters
Image: A protester raises a red flare outside Paris’s Gare du Nord train station. Pic: Reuters
Elsewhere in the country, traffic disruptions were reported on major roads in Marseille, Montpellier, Nantes, and Lyon.
Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau told reporters a group of protesters had torched a bus in the Breton city of Rennes.
Image: Protesters fill the streets and block tram lines in Montpellier, southern France. Pic: Reuters
Image: A protester in Montpellier waves a lit flare. Pic: Reuters
Image: Protesters hold a sign that reads: ’10 September public holiday!!’ in Paris. Pic: Reuters
Fourth prime minister in a year
The ‘Block Everything’ rallies come amid spiralling national debt and are similar to the Yellow Vest movement that broke out over tax increases during President Emmanuel Macron’s first term.
‘Bloquons tout’ was first spearheaded online by right-wing groups in May but has since been embraced by the left and far left, experts say.
Image: French outgoing Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (left) with his replacement Sebastien Lecornu at Paris’s Hotel Matignon. Pic: Reuters
Image: Crowds of protesters outside Gare du Nord in Paris. Pic: Reuters
Image: ‘Block Everything’ protesters outside Paris’s Gare du Nord on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
A teacher, Christophe Lalande, taking part in the Paris protests, told reporters at the scene: “Bayrou was ousted, [now] his policies must be eliminated.”
Elsewhere, union member Amar Lagha said: “This day is a message to all the workers of this country: that there is no resignation, the fight continues, and a message to this government that we won’t back down, and if we have to die, we’ll die standing.”