Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead.
But it doesn’t feel likely from the language we’ve heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.
He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel’s right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.
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‘What will it take for a pause in Gaza?’
The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.
“Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details.”
Those “details” were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.
He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That’s more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.
He added that the situation in Gaza will create “a sea of hatred that will define generations to come”.
That’s the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done – hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides – but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Image: Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza
What’s the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?
The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language – a humanitarian pause.
What’s the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There’s no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.
A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.
Image: A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP
Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas
So what’s the problem? Well, Israel doesn’t believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won’t be passed to Hamas for war purposes.
America’s special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.
But that hasn’t prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden’s America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?
Image: Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP
Gaza fuel will only last a few days
What’s at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.
Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.
There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.
Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that’s about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.
These are the “details” as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.
Israel has carried out dozens of airstrikes on Iran and has declared an emergency as it braces for retaliation.
Its military said a “pre-emptive, precise, combined offensive based on high-quality intelligence” had been launched – called Operation Rising Lion.
“Dozens of IAF jets completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran,” said a statement.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack was to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel‘s very survival” and would last for “as many days as it takes to remove the threat”.
Iranian state media reported the head of the country’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, had been killed.
Mehr News said nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi was also dead, as was theoretical physicist Dr Mohammed Mehdi Tehranchi and Major General Gholam Ali Rashid.
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State media reported explosions northeast of capital Tehran early on Friday, and said buildings belonging to the armed forces were hit in the Mahalati complex north of the city.
A “special state of emergency” is now in effect in Israel, according to its defence minister, who warned a “missile and drone attack… is expected in the immediate future”.
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0:59
Netanyahu: Israel launches Operation Rising Lion
Israelis were woken in the early hours by air raid sirens and a phone alert warning there could be “severe retaliation”, said Sky’s Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall.
An IDF statement said authorities are “prepared for a wide range of scenarios in defense and offense that may be needed”.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio said America was not involved and Israel believed the strikes were necessary for its self defence.
He said “necessary steps” had been taken to protect US forces in the region.
“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,” Mr Rubio warned.
The attack comes amid fears over Iran’s nuclear programme, with a warning this week the country is breaking its obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Israel and the US have long feared Iran is plotting to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran has repeatedly denied this and insists its programme is for civilian purposes.
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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said “the scenes emerging of a London-bound plane carrying many British nationals crashing in the Indian city of Ahmedabad are devastating”.
He said he was being kept updated as the situation develops, while Buckingham Palace said the King was also being kept informed.
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Rescuers rush to airport
The foreign office said the UK is “working with local authorities in Indiato urgently establish the facts and provide support to those involved” and advised British nationals who require consular assistance to call 020 7008 5000.
India’s prime minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X: “The tragedy in Ahmedabad has stunned and saddened us.
“It is heartbreaking beyond words. In this sad hour, my thoughts are with everyone affected by it.”
Previous Air India crashes
Air India, which started operations in 1932, and its subsidiary Air India Express has suffered several fatal crashes.
According to Aviation Safety Network (ASN) the most recent fatal crashes were:
• May 2010: Boeing 737-800 (Air India Express) overshot the runway at Mangalore, India, and crashed into a gorge, killing 158 people.
• August 2020: Boeing 737-800 (Air India Express) after landing in Karipur, India, the aircraft left the runway, rolled down an embankment and broke up, killing 21 people.
Here are some recent non-fatal incidents, according to ASN, which include unofficial sources:
• September 2024: Boeing 737-8HG (Air India Express) suffered engine problems after taking off from Delhi and returned to the airport.
• October 2024: Boeing 737-8HG (Air India Express) declared an emergency immediately after take-off due to a hydraulic issue, eventually landing safely.
• December 2024: Airbus A320-251N started the takeoff roll (when the aircraft starts to build up speed before take-off) on a taxiway instead of the runway at Goa, but stopped when alerted by controllers.
• December 2024: Boeing 737-86N (Air India Express) returned to land at Kochi after tyre debris was found on the runway.
• January 2025: Airbus A320-251N suffered an engine shutdown after departing Bangalore and landed safely at the same location.
• April 2025: Boeing 737-8HG (Air India Express) made contact with an object on the runway during landing in UAE.
India’s civil aviation minister Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu said he was “shocked and devastated” to learn about the crash.
“We are on highest alert,” he said. “I am personally monitoring the situation and have directed all aviation and emergency response agencies to take swift and coordinated action.
“Rescue teams have been mobilised, and all efforts are being made to ensure medical aid and relief support are being rushed to the site.”
Image: Pic: AP
Aviation expert Julian Bray told Sky News he understands the pilot managed to make a mayday call, meaning the crew was aware of a problem before the crash.
Air India was acquired by Tata Group from the Indian government in January 2022 after racking up billions of pounds of losses.
The group now operates more than 8,300 weekly flights on 312 routes, connecting more than 100 domestic and international destinations with a fleet of 300 aircraft.
Image: Rescue workers at the crash site. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: AP
The airline’s chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran described the incident as a “tragic accident” and a “devastating event” and said emergency response teams were at the site.
“At this moment, our primary focus is on supporting all the affected people and their families,” he said.
“We are doing everything in our power to assist the emergency response teams at the site and to provide all necessary support and care to those impacted.”
A Boeing spokesperson said: “We are aware of initial reports and are working to gather more information.”
Air India flight AI171 took off from Ahmedabad Airport at 1.38pm local time on Thursday.
According to flight tracking website Flightrader, the aircraft had reached a height of 625ft before crashing. Its last signal was received less than a minute after take off.
The aircraft crashed into a residential area called Meghani Nagar, Faiz Ahmed Kidwai, the director general of the directorate of civil aviation, told the Associated Press.
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1:11
Huge plumes of smoke near Indian airport
More than 100 bodies have been brought to hospital in Ahmedabad, police said.
At least 30 bodies were recovered from a building at the site of the crash, Reuters reported, citing rescue workers at the site.
More people were trapped inside the building, the workers said.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: AP
Images from the scene showed people being moved in stretchers and taken away in ambulances. The exact number of casualties is not known.
The tail of the plane has been pictured protruding from a building, while the wings were ripped completely from the main body of the aircraft.
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Tail of Air India plane in roof
Image: One plane wing completely detached from the body of the aircraft. Pic: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Who was on board?
Air India said of the 242 passengers and crew on the plane, 53 are British nationals, 169 are Indian nationals, seven are Portuguese and one person is Canadian.
Those that have been injured are being taken to the nearest hospitals.
Image:
Pic: Reuters
The airline said it has also “set up a dedicated passenger hotline number 1800 5691 444 to provide more information”.
The flight had been due to land at London Gatwick at 6.25pm local time.
Image: The departure hall that is used by Air India at Gatwick Airport. Pic: AP
What caused the crash?
It is unknown at this stage what caused the crash.
The aircraft was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner. The American aircraft manufacturer which makes the plane, said it is “aware of initial reports” and is working to gather more information.
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0:44
Moment before and after crash
Aviation expert Julian Bray told Sky News that he understands the pilot of flight AI171 managed to make a mayday call before the crash.
This would mean the crew was aware of a problem before the incident happened.
A mayday call is an internationally recognised distress signal used in radio communication. It indicates an imminent danger and the need for immediate assistance.
Image: People gather near the wreckage.
Pic: Reuters
Sky News’ science correspondent Thomas Moore said investigators will now be studying the video and the two black boxes recording cockpit conversations and technical data to try to understand why the crash occurred.
“It’s possible there was an engine failure of some kind, perhaps caused by a catastrophic mechanical fault. But the plane is designed to be able to fly with one engine, even at take-off, so something else would have to go wrong too,” he said
“Both engines could have failed if they sucked in a flock of birds as the plane took off. It’s happened in other air crashes.”
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1:47
Aviation experts on India plane crash
How has the UK responded?
Sir Keir Starmer said the scenes emerging from the site of the crash in Ahmedabad are “devastating”.
The prime minister said he is being kept updated as the situation develops. Buckingham Palace said King Charles is also being briefed on the crash.
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0:34
Rescuers rush to airport
Foreign Minister David Lammy said that he is “deeply saddened by news”.
In a statement on X, Mr Lammy wrote: “My thoughts are with all those affected. The UK is working with local authorities in India to urgently establish the facts and provide support.”
Image: Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: AP
The UK’s Foreign Office said it is currently “working with local authorities in India to urgently establish the facts and provide support to those involved”.
Britons who have concerns may call 0207 008 5000, the Foreign Office added.
Image: Pic: AP
What has India said?
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the plane crash was “heartbreaking beyond words”.
“The tragedy in Ahmedabad has stunned and saddened us,” he said.
“In this sad hour, my thoughts are with everyone affected by it.”
Image: Firefighters work at the site of the crash. Pic: AP
The country’s civil aviation minister said he is “shocked and devastated”.
“I am personally monitoring the situation and have directed all aviation and emergency response agencies to take swift and coordinated action,” Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu said.
“My thoughts and prayers are with all those on board and their families.
Image: Pic: AP
Previous Air India crashes
Air India, which started operations in 1932, and its subsidiary Air India Express has suffered several fatal crashes, two of which were caused by acts of terrorism.
According to Aviation Safety Network (ASN) the most recent fatal crash was in August 2020, when Boeing 737-800 (Air India Express) overshot the runway in Karipur, India, rolled down an embankment and broke up, killing 21 people.
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Non-fatal incidents have happened most recently as April this year, when an Air India Express Boeing 737-8HG made contact with an object on the runway during landing in the United Arab Emirates.
Boeing shares fell nearly 8% in premarket US trading on Thursday, after the crash in Ahmedabad.