The next US election is a year today. What will decide the outcome?

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2 years ago

November 5, 2023

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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

US

Charlie Kirk: Powerful right-wing influencer and Trump ally shot dead at event in Utah

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2 hours ago

September 10, 2025

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Charlie Kirk: Powerful right-wing influencer and Trump ally shot dead at event in Utah

Right-wing American influencer Charlie Kirk has died after being shot, according to Donald Trump.

The US president announced that the conservative student leader and an ally of Mr Trump had died after being shot during a university event in Orem, Utah.

“The Great, and even Legendary, Charlie Kirk, is dead,” wrote the American leader on his Truth Social account.

“No one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States of America better than Charlie. He was loved and admired by ALL, especially me, and now, he is no longer with us.”

Earlier, witnesses said they heard a shot fired from a nearby building as Kirk spoke, a university spokesperson told Sky’s US partner NBC News.

Videos on social media show Kirk speaking into a microphone while sitting under a white tent with the slogans “The American Comeback” and “Prove Me Wrong”.

A single shot is heard and Mr Kirk can be seen reaching up with his right hand as blood comes out from the left side of his neck. He then falls off his chair.

A university spokesperson confirmed he had been shot in the neck. He was then taken to hospital by private security and underwent surgery.

President Trump earlier asked people to pray for the 31-year-old conservative activist.

The father-of-two is the chief executive and co-founder of Turning Point USA, a prominent organisation that engages conservative youth on school campuses.

The university earlier said a suspect was in custody but later clarified that was not the case.

Mr Kirk and Turning Point USA played a key role in driving youth support for Mr Trump in last November’s presidential election. His events at college campuses nationwide typically draw large crowds.

President Trump often spoken favourably about Mr Kirk, including multiple times on the campaign trail last year.

During a rally in Washington the day before he was sworn in for a second term in January, Mr Trump told attendees: “Charlie Kirk is here. And I want to thank Charlie. Charlie is fantastic. I mean, this guy.”

A few weeks before, during a rally in Las Vegas on 22 December 2024, Mr Trump called Mr Kirk “incredible”, adding that he “is a special talent, and he’s out there fighting”.

The president, then a candidate for the White House, also appeared last October at a Turning Point USA political rally in Phoenix.

“I want to express my tremendous gratitude to Charlie Kirk. He’s really an amazing guy. Amazing guy,” Mr Trump said.

The president, on the campaign trail last June, also lauded Mr Kirk at a Turning Point Action town hall in Phoenix, saying, “I want to thank a special person, Charlie Kirk, for his tremendous leadership.”

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US

With UK state visit looming, Epstein questions come at worst moment for Lord Mandelson

Published

5 hours ago

September 10, 2025

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With UK state visit looming, Epstein questions come at worst moment for Lord Mandelson

The resurfacing of an affectionate greeting to paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, alleged to have come from Lord Mandelson, raises huge questions.

It couldn’t have come at a worse moment – days before Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK, in which Mandelson, the UK’s ambassador to Washington, will play a significant role.

While he focuses on crafting Anglo-American collaboration on technology, his judgment is under scrutiny on both sides of the Atlantic.

Newly released files, which had been demanded by the House of Representatives Oversight Committee on Capitol Hill, appear to contain notes he sent to Jeffrey Epstein.

Follow updates: White House denies Trump behind birthday note

One reads: “…wherever he is in the world, he remains my best pal!”

“Happy birthday, Jeffrey we love you!!” it concludes.

Mandelson’s connection to the billionaire, who died by suicide in prison while awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges, is well documented.

A 2019 JP Morgan internal report flagged a notably close relationship between the two.

But his alleged use of the words “best pal” suggests a closer and warmer relationship than had been previously acknowledged.

Questioned about it in 2025, the UK’s ambassador to the US expressed “deep regret” over knowing Epstein but dismissed the issue as a media “obsession”.

Peter Mandelson, once dubbed “the Prince of Darkness” within Westminster, is a veteran politician who served in cabinet under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

His appointment as UK Ambassador to the United States in February 2025 surprised many people.

It is unusual for someone considered a political heavyweight to find themselves in what is traditionally a diplomatic role.

Asked about the alleged birthday greeting, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said Sir Keir Starmer had “full confidence” in the UK’s ambassador to the US.

The one thing sparing him any difficult questions from the White House is the fact that Mr Trump faces just as many himself over Epstein.

US

Trump suffers legal setback in bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

Published

5 hours ago

September 10, 2025

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Trump suffers legal setback in bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

Donald Trump’s bid to fire a US central bank rate-setter has suffered a setback after a federal judge blocked the move.

The president revealed last month that he was removing Lisa Cook from her post at the Federal Reserve on alleged mortgage fraud grounds.

The move was widely seen by commentators as a bid to destroy the Fed’s independence through the appointment of a new governor who would support his bid for interest rate cuts to boost the trade war-hit US economy.

Money latest: Newspaper group confirms job losses

Ms Cook, who denies wrongdoing and any cause to dismiss her, was appointed to the Fed’s board by former US president Joe Biden. The board forms part of the panel that votes on US interest rate decisions.

She secured a preliminary court ruling late on Tuesday which found that the Trump administration’s claims she committed mortgage fraud prior to taking office were likely not sufficient grounds for her removal.

The White House has claimed she inaccurately described three separate properties on mortgage applications, which could have allowed her to obtain lower interest rates and tax credits.

But US District Judge Jia Cobb said: “President Trump has not identified anything related to Cook’s conduct or job performance as a Board member that would indicate that she is harming the Board or the public interest by executing her duties unfaithfully or ineffectively.”

The ruling, which could yet be appealed, means she can continue in her role while her own lawsuit proceeds.

It could end up in the Supreme Court.

Mr Trump’s demands this year that the Fed cuts rates have so far fallen on deaf ears as the central bank voting has shown too much concern over trade war-linked inflation. Prices have risen as higher import duties have been passed on.

He has repeatedly called for Fed chair Jay Powell to resign but retracted threats to fire him.

The president may actually get his wish for a cut this month amid a deterioration in the employment market – also widely blamed on his trade war – as hiring has slumped.

The central bank, unlike the Bank of England, has a dual mandate to ensure maximum employment as well as keeping inflation in check.

Any rate cut would be unlikely to extinguish the Trump administration’s effort to influence monetary policy.

The Fed’s ability to set interest rates without regard to politicians’ demands is critical to market confidence, let alone the central bank’s ability to keep inflation under control.

Neither the Fed or the White House commented on the ruling.

Ms Cook’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said: “This ruling recognises and reaffirms the importance of safeguarding the independence of the Federal Reserve from illegal political interference.”