The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
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They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
A shirtless man waving a Mexican flag stands atop a burning car in the heart of Los Angeles, as another man throws a traffic cone into the flames and some play drums and shout chants in opposition to immigration officials.
In the background, city hall can be glimpsed through a haze of thick black smoke.
The downtown district of one of America’s biggest cities was a scene of pandemonium and lawlessness as protests, which had previously been mainly peaceful, turned ugly.
Critics of Donald Trump said the president’s extraordinary decision to deploy National Guard troops, defying the wishes of the state’s governor, had inflamed tensions and stoked emotions.
Image: A protester throws a cone into a burning fire in LA. Pic: Reuters/Daniel Cole
The 101 Freeway, the main highway cutting through the downtown area, was also closed down for much of the day as police and protesters faced off, with flash bang devices sending some people scattering.
Bottles and other projectiles were hurled towards police, who responded by using tear gas and rubber bullets.
It was this chaos, his critics say, that Donald Trump wanted to provoke.
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Image: California Highway Patrol officers try to dodge rocks being thrown. Pic: AP/Ethan Swope
Trump’s decision to call in 2,000 National Guard troops, several hundred of whom were on the streets of LA on Sunday, was taken without consultation with the California governor and LA mayor, and marked an extraordinary escalation by the president.
The military arrived on Sunday morning and was ordered to guard federal buildings, after two days of protest against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.
As part of Trump’s closed border policy, ICE has been ordered to find, detain and deport as many illegal immigrants as possible, and it was these raids that stoked the first signs of protest on Friday into the weekend.
Image: Smoke rises as the National Guard clashed with protesters in downtown Los Angeles.
Pic: Reuters/Daniel Cole
By midday Sunday, the military was surrounded by protesters outside the Metropolitan Detention Centre in downtown LA. It was here that many immigrants had been held before being shipped off to detention facilities.
The walls and floors are covered in expletive-ridden graffiti, reading f*** ICE.
The Los Angeles police soon split the crowd and drove a wedge between the National Guard and the crowd.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has called Donald Trump’s acts those of a “dictator, not a president”.
Image: A police officer fires a soft round in Los Angeles. Pic: AP Photo/Eric Thayer
Image: Los Angeles Metro Police officers strike protesters during unrest in the downtown area of the city.
Pic: Reuters/Daniel Cole
He’s formally requested that the Trump administration withdraw the National Guard. The White House say the military will remain there until order is restored. Five hundred marines are still on standby.
Los Angeles Police Department police chief Jim McDonnell, asked whether the National Guard was needed, said: “This thing has gotten out of control.”
He said that although the LAPD would not initially have requested assistance from the National Guard, the disorder had caused him to reevaluate his assessment.
Image: US correspondent Martha Kelner is reporting from Los Angeles
Several people were arrested.
Sky News witnessed a young woman, who called herself Gabriella, riding her motorbike at speed towards a line of police officers.
The National Guard will be deployed to Los Angeles after “riots” in response to immigration raids extended into a second day.
California Governor Gavin Newsom confirmed that the Trump administration is deploying “2,000 soldiers” to Los Angeles after local police used tear gas, stun guns, and riot shields to push back immigration protesters on Saturday.
Demonstrations began outside the Los Angeles Federal Building in the downtown area of LA on Friday after officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) carried out raids in the area.
On Saturday, several dozen protesters were involved in police standoffs in Paramount, a city south of LA.
Mr Newsom warned in a post on X: “The federal government is sowing chaos so they can have an excuse to escalate. That is not the way any civilized country behaves.”
He described the deployment as “purposefully inflammatory” and claimed it will “only escalate tensions”.
President Donald Trump hit back at Mr Newsom in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday.
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“If Governor Gavin Newscum, of California, and Mayor Karen Bass, of Los Angeles, can’t do their jobs, which everyone knows they can’t, then the Federal Government will step in and solve the problem, RIOTS & LOOTERS, the way it should be solved!!!,” he wrote.
Mr Trump’s defence secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that active duty marines would also be mobilised if “violence continues”.
Image: A Los Angeles County Sheriff’s deputy holds back protesters in Paramount, Los Angeles on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Image: Fireworks amid police standoffs with protesters in Paramount, Los Angeles on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
LA mayor Karen Bass said that amid the recovery from this year’s wildfires, “many in our community are feeling fear” following “recent federal immigration enforcement actions” across LA County.
“We’ve been in direct contact with officials in Washington, D.C., and are working closely with law enforcement to find the best path forward,” she said.
“Everyone has the right to peacefully protest, but let me be clear: violence and destruction are unacceptable, and those responsible will be held accountable.”
Reports the guard would be deployed to LA came earlier on Saturday, from Mr Trump’s border tsar Tom Homan on Fox News.
Image: Tear gas is fired at protesters in Paramount on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Image: Fires amid immigration protests in Paramount, Los Angeles County on Saturday. Pic: AP
44 arrested in Friday raids
At least 44 people were arrested on suspicion of immigration violations during raids on Friday, with crowds of around “1,000 rioters” forming around the building before some “assaulted law enforcement officers, slashed tires, and defaced taxpayer-funded property”, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
The raids saw street vendors and day workers rounded up across Home Depots, a clothing factory, and a warehouse, Salas of Chirla (The Coalition for Humane Immigration Rights of Los Angeles) said.
In a statement on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said “violent mobs” had “attacked ICE officers and federal law enforcement agents carrying out basic deportation operations”.
She described such activity as “essential to halting and reversing the invasion of illegal criminals into the United States”.
Ms Leavitt said Californian politicians were “feckless” and had “completely abdicated their responsibility to protect their citizens”, prompting Mr Trump’s order to send in the guard.
Image: Police fire stun grenades at protesters outside the Los Angeles Federal Building on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Image: A protester holds up a sign to police outside the Los Angeles Federal Building on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Protests spread to second city
On Saturday, protests spread to the Paramount area, where there is a significant Latino population, after demonstrators spotted ICE employees in a Home Depot car park they appeared to be using as a base.
Law enforcement officers faced off protesters at a road junction at around 5pm where a car had been set on fire earlier in the day.
The roads were pictured strewn with trolleys and rubbish bins set on fire, as gas canisters and fireworks were also set off.
Image: A car burns on Atlantic Boulevard in Paramount, Los Angeles on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Image: The car burnt out in Paramount on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Commenting on Saturday’s protests, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office said: “It appeared that federal law enforcement officers were in the area, and that members of the public were gathering to protest.”
Vice President JD Vance claimed that “insurrectionists” were seen “carrying foreign flags” and “attacking immigration enforcement officers” in Paramount.
“One half of America’s political leadership has decided that border enforcement is evil,” he posted on X. “Time to pass President Trump’s beautiful bill and further secure the border.”
Image: Mexican and US flags are flown by protesters in Paramount. Pic: Reuters
Image: ‘Death to ICE’, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, is written on a bin in downtown Los Angeles on Friday. Pic: Reuters
The clashes come amid Trump’s nationwide crackdown on illegal migration.
As soon as he was re-elected in January he set a target of arresting 3,000 suspected illegal migrants per day – and promised to lock down the US-Mexico border.
Elon Musk’s social media post claiming Donald Trump is in files relating to the disgraced paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein has been removed.
The tech billionaire made the allegation on X as he traded blows with the US president in a dramatic public row.
In the post, which now appears to have been deleted, Musk said: “@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.
“Mark this post for the future. The truth will come out.”
He gave no evidence for the claim, which was dismissed by the White House – with the post disappearing from his social media platform by Sunday.
Users clicking on the message – first posted on Thursday – were instead greeted with: “Hmm…this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.”
Epstein killed himself in his jail cell in August 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking minors.
Image: File pic: Reuters
Musk and Mr Trump’s relationship broke down publicly on Thursday, just days after the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive left his role as a special government employee.
In a fiery exchange, Musk posted a series of messages on X criticising the president’s signature tax and spending bill as a “big ugly spending bill”.
President Trump posted on Truth Social, saying Musk had been “wearing thin” and claimed he “asked him to leave” his government position – something Musk denied.
Musk then hit back with his claim about the US president appearing in the Epstein files.
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed the comment in a statement.
“This is an unfortunate episode from Elon, who is unhappy with the One Big Beautiful Bill because it does not include the policies he wanted,” she said.
“The president is focused on passing this historic piece of legislation and making our country great again.”
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