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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

More on Donald Trump

In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

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Venezuela’s president pleads for peace after Trump sends in CIA

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Trump refuses to say if CIA has authority to assassinate Venezuela's president

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro has accused the US of a coup attempt after Donald Trump approved CIA operations in the country to tackle alleged drug trafficking.

Mr Trump confirmed his decision, first revealed by The New York Times, as he said large amounts of drugs were entering the US from Venezuela – much of it trafficked by sea.

“We are looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” he said.

When asked why the coastguard wasn’t asked to intercept suspected drug trafficking boats, which has been a longstanding US practice, Mr Trump said the approach had been ineffective.

“I think Venezuela is feeling heat,” he said.

Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday evening. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday evening. Pic: Reuters

Maduro hits back

He declined to answer whether the CIA has the authority to execute Mr Maduro, who denies accusations from Washington that he has connections to drug trafficking and organised crime.

The US has offered a $50m (£37m) reward for information leading to his arrest.

“How long will the CIA continue to carry on with its coups?” he asked after Mr Trump’s comments on Wednesday evening, saying calls for regime change harkened back to “failed eternal wars” in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In a message to the American people, he said in English: “Not war, yes peace. The people of the US, please.”

President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters
Image:
President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters

US targets ‘drug boats’

Mr Trump also alleged Venezuela had sent a significant number of prisoners, including individuals from mental health facilities, into the US, though he did not specify the border through which they reportedly entered.

On Tuesday, he announced America had targeted a small boat suspected of drug trafficking in waters off the Venezuelan coast, resulting in the deaths of six people.

According to the president’s post on social media, all those killed were aboard the vessel.

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Footage of the strike was released by Donald Trump on social media. Pic: Truth Social
Image:
Footage of the strike was released by Donald Trump on social media. Pic: Truth Social

The incident marked the fifth such fatal strike in the Caribbean, as the Trump administration continues to classify suspected drug traffickers as unlawful combatants to be confronted with military force.

War secretary Pete Hegseth authorised the strike, according to Mr Trump, who released a video of the operation.

The black-and-white footage showed a small boat seemingly stationary on the water. It is struck by a projectile from above and explodes, then drifts while burning for several seconds.

Mr Trump said the “lethal kinetic strike” was in international waters and targeted a boat travelling along a well-known smuggling route.

There has also been a significant increase in US military presence in the southern Caribbean, with at least eight warships, a submarine, and F-35 jets stationed in Puerto Rico.

‘Bomb the boats’: Bold move or dangerous overreach?

It’s a dramatic – and risky – escalation of US strategy for countering narcotics.

Having carried out strikes on Venezuelan “drug boats” at sea, Trump says he’s “looking a” targeting cartels on land.

He claims the attacks, which have claimed 27 lives, have saved up to 50,000 Americans.

By framing bombings as a blow against “narcoterrorists”, he’s attempting to justify them as self-defence – but the administration has veered into murky territory.

Under international law, such strikes require proof of imminent threat – something the White House has yet to substantiate.

Strategically, Trump’ss militarised approach could backfire, forcing traffickers to adapt, and inflaming tensions with Venezuela and allies wary of US intervention.

Without transparent evidence or congressional oversight, some will view the move less like counterterrorism and more like vigilantism on the seas.

The president’s “bomb the boats” rhetoric signals a shift back to shock and awe tactics in foreign policy, under the banner of fighting drugs.

Supporters will hail it as a bold, decisive move, but to critics it’s reckless posturing that undermines international law.

The strikes send a message of strength, but the legal, moral and geopolitical costs are still being calculated.

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Man who moved to US aged four dies after being detained in immigration raid

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Man who moved to US aged four dies after being detained in immigration raid

A 39-year-old man died in hospital alone, miles from his family, after being detained by US immigration officials.

Ismael Ayala-Uribe, who had lived in the US since he was four, fell ill while in an immigration detention centre in California.

Ismael Ayala-Uribe was well known in the local Latino community
Image:
Ismael Ayala-Uribe was well known in the local Latino community

He complained of a fever and had a persistent cough in the weeks before he died, according to his mother Lucia.

She said he was initially treated by medical staff inside the detention centre but was returned to his cell.

He was eventually taken to hospital for a scheduled surgery to remove an abscess on his buttocks, but died before he was able to have the operation.

His family were never told he was in hospital, learning of his death via a knock on the door from police.

“They’re the ones that notified us that he had passed,” his brother, Jose Ayala, told Sky News.

“We were not even aware that he was in the hospital or even had a scheduled surgery. Then we got a knock on our door a little after 5.30 one morning.

“I believe he would still be alive today if he was never detained. He got sick while in detention, and they did not seem to take care of him.”

Ismael's brother Jose speaks to Sky News
Image:
Ismael’s brother Jose speaks to Sky News

Why was he detained?

Mr Ayala-Uribe’s death raises questions about the conditions inside the centre he was held in, and if a sudden surge of immigrants being detained by this administration has left the system stretched beyond breaking point.

He had moved to the US from Mexico with his family as a child.

He did have DACA – deferred action for childhood arrivals – status, granted to those who have arrived while under the age of 18. But this was removed in 2016, after he was convicted of drink-driving.

In August, he was arrested by immigration agents at a car wash in California where he had worked for 15 years.

He was held for five weeks at Adelanto, a privately owned, run-for-profit, immigrant detention centre. A lawyer for his family said he was, as far as they are aware, a healthy man before he was detained and had no medical need.

But Mr Ayala-Uribe’s mother, who was visiting him every eight days and speaking to him on the phone a couple of times a day, said she noticed him getting progressively unwell.

Ismael's brother and mother, Lucia
Image:
Ismael’s brother and mother, Lucia

“He started with lots of fever,” Ms Ayala said. “He said they weren’t listening to him. The last time I saw him his face was drained, he told me he was not OK, he told me he couldn’t take it any more.”

Beginning to cry, wiping away tears, she added: “I feel powerless that I couldn’t do anything to help my son.

“I never imagined I was going to bury one of my sons. It feels terrible, they took a piece of my heart away.

“I would like something to change. If we cannot save him, at least we can save others that are still inside.”

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Inside Trump’s immigration raids

ICE defends detention treatment

The cause of Mr Ayala-Uribe’s death is still under investigation.

Sky News requested comment from the company which owns the detention centre where he was held, and they deferred to ICE, the US immigration and customs enforcement agency.

In a statement, ICE said: “Comprehensive medical care is provided from the moment individuals arrive and throughout the entirety of their stay.

“At no time during detention is a detained illegal alien denied emergency care.”

The Trump administration says it’s targeting criminals and people in the US illegally. But campaigners say Mr Ayala-Uribe’s death should not be viewed in isolation.

Images from Ismael's funeral service
Image:
Images from Ismael’s funeral service

Since Donald Trump took office, at least 15 people have died in immigration detention.

Democrat senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock wrote a letter to the homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, asking for more information about these deaths.

The senators claimed 10 people had died between January and June, and that it was the highest rate in the first six months of any year publicly available.

Sarah Houston, a lawyer for the Immigrant Defenders Law Centre, claims immigrants are being mistreated in custody.

Read more from Sky News:
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ICE raids: ‘This is like Vietnam’

“This administration’s main goal is to harm, to torture individuals and to try to force them out,” she said.

“The great increase we see in human rights abuses, in deaths, is a direct result of the administration’s decision to pack these detention centres as much as they can.”

Mr Ayala-Uribe’s funeral was held this week. Dozens of extended family and friends wore t-shirts bearing his face. A mariachi band played as his casket was lowered into the ground and his mother heaved with sobs.

As they absorb their loss, the effort to carry out the biggest mass deportation operation in US history continues.

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US defence secretary Pete Hegseth’s jet makes unscheduled landing in UK after in-air issue

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US defence secretary Pete Hegseth's jet makes unscheduled landing in UK after in-air issue

An aircraft carrying US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has had to make an “unscheduled landing” in the UK.

The jet was about 30 minutes into its journey back to the US after a NATO defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels, when it suffered a “depressurisation issue”.

Sean Parnell, chief Pentagon spokesman, confirmed the aircraft had been diverted to the UK due to a crack in the aircraft windscreen.

He posted on X: “On the way back to the United States from NATO’s Defence Ministers meeting, Secretary of War Hegseth’s plane made an unscheduled landing in the United Kingdom due to a crack in the aircraft windshield.

“The plane landed based on standard procedures, and everyone onboard, including Secretary Hegseth, is safe.”

Mr Hegseth also posted: “All good. Thank God. Continue mission!”

Open source flight trackers spotted the aircraft lose altitude and begin broadcasting an emergency signal.

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The aviation news website Airlive reported the Boeing C-32A – a military version of the Boeing 757 – had a “depressurisation issue”.

It went on to land at RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk at about 7.10pm.

Mr Hegseth had been at a meeting of NATO defence ministers which was also attended by UK Defence Secretary John Healey.

In February, a US Air Force plane carrying secretary of state Marco Rubio and the Senate foreign relations committee chairman, Senator Jim Risch, was similarly forced to return to Washington DC after an issue with the cockpit windscreen.

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