The next US election is a year today. What will decide the outcome?
The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
Donald Trump has waded into the debate surrounding Sydney Sweeney’s jeans ad.
The American Eagle ad, which features the 27-year-old actress, who starred in the HBO series Euphoria and White Lotus, has the tagline “Sydney Sweeney has great jeans”.
It has sparked a debate in the US over race and Western beauty standards.
One of the Sydney Sweeney jeans ads. Pic: AP
In a Truth Social post, the US president described it as the “hottest ad out there”.
Hailing Sweeney as a “registered Republican”, he said the jeans are “flying off the shelves”, adding: “Go get ’em Sydney!”
Most of the criticism of the ad has centred on videos using the word “genes” instead of “jeans”, with one in which Sweeney says: “Genes are passed down from parents to offspring, often determining traits like hair colour, personality and even eye colour. My jeans are blue.”
Critics argued the play on words potentially promotes eugenics, a discredited theory that believed humanity could be improved through the selective breeding of certain traits.
But others have defended the ad, saying the critics are reading too much into its message.
The video appeared on American Eagle’s Facebook page and other social media channels, but is not part of the ad campaign.
In a statement on Instagram on Friday, American Eagle Outfitters said the campaign “is and always was about the jeans. Her jeans. Her story. We’ll continue to celebrate how everyone wears their AE jeans with confidence, their way. Great jeans look good on everyone.”
Stocks in American Eagle Outfitters jumped by 23.3% after Mr Trump’s intervention.
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In his Truth Social post, which he reposted three times to fix various typos, Mr Trump compared the ad with “woke” ones “on the other side of the ledger” – as he criticised other companies, as well as hitting out at Taylor Swift.
“The tide has seriously turned – Being WOKE is for losers, being Republican is what you want to be,” he wrote.
Sky News has contacted Sweeney’s agent for comment.
Police in Tennessee have discovered 14 improvised explosive devices in a man’s home as they were arresting him, the local sheriff’s office said.
Officers were executing a warrant in the home of Kevin Wade O’Neal in Old Fort, about 45 miles (70km) east of Chattanooga, after he had threatened to kill public officials and law enforcement personnel in Polk County.
After arresting the 54-year-old, officers noticed “something smouldering” in the bedroom where he was found.
Kevin Wade O’Neal. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
On closer inspection, they discovered an improvised explosive device and evacuated the house until bomb squad officers arrived at the scene.
Fourteen devices were found inside the property – none of which detonated.
Improvised explosive devices were found in Kevin Wade O’Neal’s home. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
Kevin Wade O’Neal’s home in Old Fort, Tennessee. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
O’Neal was charged with 11 counts of attempted first-degree murder, corresponding to nine officers and two other people inside the property when the suspect tried to detonate the devices.
He also faces 14 counts of prohibited weapons and one count of possession of explosive components.
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O’Neal is being held at the Polk County jail and his bond is yet to be determined.
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