The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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0:57
Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
Image: Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
Image: Joe Biden. Pic: AP
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)
Sir Keir Starmer has held crisis talks over the phone with both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump following their heated exchange in the White House.
But his visit ended prematurely – with the signing of an agreement and a joint press conference with Mr Trump cancelled following their clash in the Oval Office.
After the extraordinary meeting, both Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy spoke to the media and gave their reactions.
Meanwhile, European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron and Poland’s Donald Tusk shared their support for Ukraine.
And in a statement, a Downing Street spokesperson said Sir Keir had spoken to both Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy.
The spokesperson said: “He [Sir Keir] retains unwavering support for Ukraine, and is doing all he can to find a path forward to a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security for Ukraine.”
The spokesperson added that the prime minister was “looking forward” to welcoming Mr Zelenskyy to the UK for a summit of international leaders on Sunday.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaves the White House after his row with Donald Trump. Pic: AP
‘Disrespectful’
As Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy met, with US vice president JD Vance joining them, tensions rose and a shouting match unfolded – all while cameras rolled and representatives from the media looked on.
The last 10 minutes of the almost 45-minute meeting descended into a tense back-and-forth, which began with Mr Vance telling Mr Zelenksyy: “I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.
“You should be thanking the President [Trump] for trying to bring an end to this conflict.”
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As the Ukrainian president tried to object, Mr Trump raised his voice and told him: “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people.
“You’re gambling with World War Three, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that’s backed you far more than a lot of people say they should have.”
“You’re right now not in a very good position,” he continued. “You don’t have the cards right now with us, you start having problems right now.”
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0:42
What happened when Trump met Zelenskyy?
‘This will be great television,’ says Trump
At one point, Mr Vance blasted Mr Zelenskyy for airing “disagreements” in front of the media, but the US president remarked: “I think it’s good for the American people to see what’s going on.”
“You’re not acting at all thankful,” he said. “This is going to be great television.”
Defending himself and his country, the Ukrainian president openly challenged Mr Trump on his softer approach to Vladimir Putin and urged him to make “no compromises with a killer”.
The fiery and very public bust-up between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a disaster for Ukraine and its European allies, and a triumph for Russia.
The spectacle of the US president berating his Ukrainian counterpart and telling him he is gambling with World War Three – played out on television from the Oval Office – was hard to witness.
Zelenskyy, looking increasingly uncomfortable, decided to fight back. He likely felt he had little choice but to defend himself and his war-torn country.
But this act of defiance drew even more condemnation from Trump as well as from JD Vance, who also started attacking the Ukrainian leader.
It is hard to imagine a greater contrast from the chummy scenes between Sir Keir Starmer and Trump and the scolding language used by the American president against Zelenskyy, at times addressing him as though he were a naughty schoolboy.
Ukraine’s president, his arms crossed, tried his best to speak up, but he was clearly fighting a losing battle. The extraordinary breakdown is far more serious than just a made-for-television drama.
American support for Ukraine is critical if Kyiv is to withstand Russia’s war. The UK, France and Ukraine’s other European allies have been working overtime to try to keep Trump on their side.
The US president has vowed to end the war and has started talks with Vladimir Putin. The two presidents also plan to meet. That alone was hard for Ukraine to witness.
But the Ukrainian side has attempted to work with Washington rather than against it, including by being willing to part with profits from its minerals and other natural resources in return for locking Trump into a long-term partnership with Ukraine.
That all looks to be shattered – or at best is in serious jeopardy.
If Trump, in anger, withdraws all his military support to Ukraine, Kyiv’s ability to withstand Russia’s military will be seriously diminished.
The Europeans lack the capability to fill the void. The only person who wins in this scenario is Vladimir Putin.
Posting on his Truth Social platform shortly after the clash, Mr Trump described the meeting as “very meaningful” and said: “Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure.
“It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations.”
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaving the White House early. Pic: AP
He continued: “I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
Zelenskyy posts on X after early exit
Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy had been due to have lunch with their delegations in the White House’s cabinet room after the meeting – but untouched salad plates and other items were seen being packed up as the meal was hastily called off.
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Such was the gulf following the row that Mr Trump told the Ukrainian leader to leave the White House, according to a US official, with the minerals deal now stuck in limbo.
Having left the White House early, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X: “Thank you America, thank you for your support, thank you for this visit.
“Thank you @POTUS, Congress, and the American people. Ukraine needs just and lasting peace, and we are working exactly for that.”
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3:10
Blow-by-blow: Inside Zelenskyy and Trump’s clash
Zelenskyy speaks to Fox News
What was supposed to be a victory lap on Fox News turned into disaster management for Mr Zelenskyy.
In an interview, he portrayed the meeting as a moment of frank and divergent views between the two but said he did not see the need to apologise.
He added he wished that Mr Trump was “more on our side” after the US president said he was in the middle of Ukraine and Russia.
“I want, really, him to be more on our side,” Mr Zelenskyy said. “It’s not just that the war began somewhere between our countries. The war began when Russia brought this war to our country. And they’re not right.”
Mr Zelenskyy also expressed a belief that the relationship could be salvaged.
Trump jets off to Florida – but not without a last word
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1:16
‘Without us he doesn’t win’ said the US president
After the White House row, Mr Trump later spoke to reporters as he left for a weekend at his Florida home.
“What he’s got to say is, ‘I want to make peace.’ He doesn’t have to stand there and say ‘Putin this, Putin that,’ all negative things. He’s got to say, ‘I want to make peace. I don’t want to fight a war anymore’,” Mr Trump said.
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev appeared to revel in the spectacle, writing on Telegram that the Ukrainian leader had received a “brutal dressing down”.
European leaders rally on social media
Meanwhile, in the fallout, European and world leaders were quick to rally and express their support for Mr Zelenskyy ahead of a summit in the UK on Sunday.
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2:42
Allies rally behind Zelenskyy
A number of leaders including Canada’s Justin Trudeau, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz all tweeted.
After the Ukrainian leader was criticised in the White House for insufficient thanks to the US, he thanked the leaders individually on X.
Mr Zelenskyy also spoke with Mr Macron, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU Council president Antonio Costa by phone.
This all comes as on Sunday, Sir Keir Starmer is hosting a meeting of European leaders and Mr Zelenskyy to discuss any potential security backstop in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian president was advised to wear a suit to the White House and Donald Trump was offended when he didn’t, according to reports.
Ahead of the historic meeting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was advised by Trump’s team to ditch his usual military-style clothing for something more formal, Axios reports.
However, he didn’t, instead opting to wear all black.
This irritated Mr Trump ahead of what quickly became a car crash of a meeting, according to two sources who spoke to Axios.
Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has resulted in the deaths of thousands, it was Mr Zelenskyy’s outfit that seemed to set the meeting off on a bad track.
As Mr Trump shook Mr Zelenskyy’s hand at the entrance to the West Wing, he said: “He is all dressed up today.”
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Then, during the disastrous press conference, reporter Brian Glenn asked Mr Zelenskyy, “why don’t you wear a suit”, accusing him of having a lack of respect for America.
“I will wear a costume when this war is finished,” the Ukrainian leader responded. “Maybe something like yours. Maybe something better. Maybe something cheaper.”
In Ukrainian, the word “kostium” (pronounced ‘costume’) means “suit”.
Image: Mr Zelenskyy, pictured during his inauguration, has dressed formally in the past, but ditched the suits after Russia invaded his country in 2022. Pic: AP
Why doesn’t Zelenskyy wear a suit?
Mr Zelenskyy, who was elected in 2019, is often seen wearing olive green jumpers, emblazoned with the Ukrainian trident, alongside combat boots.
It is a signal to the world that his country is still at war. It reflects his solidarity with the armed forces and those fighting on the frontline.
The casual attire serves as a reminder that Ukraine is an active battlefield.
While Mr Zelenskyy did wear suits before the war, reflecting his role as head of state, he has stated he will not return to doing so until the war has ended.
Image: French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte with Volodymyr Zelenskyy outside Notre Dame Cathedral. Pic: AP
In December, he wore a similar outfit for the reopening ceremony of Notre Dame cathedral in Paris, as well as for his meeting with then President-elect Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron.
Many social media users were quick to point out that Elon Musk did not wear a suit during his recent visit to the Oval Office.
Images also began circulating of Winston Churchill visiting the White House during the Second World War, dressed in a wartime “siren suit”.
Churchill wore the one-piece air raid outfit during a visit to President Franklin D Roosevelt, in which he hoped to persuade the American public to join the war.
Image: Winston Churchill, smoking a cigar, at the White House, wearing a wartime ‘siren suit’. Pic: AP
Ironically, a bust of Churchill was present in the room during the meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy, which ended in the Ukrainian leader leaving the White House without agreeing to the deal on minerals he had flown 5,000 miles to seal.
Mr Zelenskyy is now due to travel to the UK for a summit with European leaders on Sunday.
A diplomatic earthquake unfolded at the White House on Friday as President Zelenskyy and President Trump imploded in a shouting match in front of the world’s media.
On episode 41 of Trump100 US correspondents Mark Stone and James Matthews ask what went wrong at the pivotal meeting between world leaders. They debate who was in the wrong and ask what happens now, with a minerals deal left unsigned.