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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

A poll released on Sunday showed Mr Trump ahead of the president in five key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

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How much influence does America have over Israel?

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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
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Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

Biden. Pic: AP
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Joe Biden. Pic: AP

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)

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Trump: I won’t send US troops to Ukraine – but might help by air

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Trump: I won't send US troops to Ukraine - but might help by air

Donald Trump has said American troops will not be sent to Ukraine, but the US may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.

A day after his extraordinary White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of Kyiv’s European allies, the US president told Fox News “when it comes to security, [Europeans] are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, by air”.

Ukraine war – follow the latest developments

Mr Trump did not elaborate, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters US air support was “an option and a possibility”.

She said the US president “has definitively stated US boots will not be on the ground in Ukraine, but we can certainly help in the coordination and perhaps provide other means of security guarantees to our European allies”.

Air support could take many forms, including missile defence systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone – and it’s not clear what role the US would play under any proposed peace deal.

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What security guarantees could work?

Zelenskyy-Putin summit

It comes as planning for a possible Zelenskyy-Putin summit get under way. Talks between the Ukrainian and Russian president are seen by Mr Trump as vital to ending the war.

Sky News understands a meeting could happen before the end of the month, with Geneva, Vienna, Rome, Budapest, and Doha among the venues being considered.

Geneva, Switzerland, is considered the best option, with Rome or the Vatican disliked by the Russians and Budapest, Hungary, not favoured by the Ukrainians.

European allies are understood to want security guarantees to be defined before the meeting.

A NATO-like treaty, guaranteeing Ukraine’s allies would come to its defence in case of any future Russian attack, is being worked on and could be completed by next week.

Like the US, Sky News understands Italy is opposed to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

But EU diplomats are confident this is the best chance yet to stop the war, and allies could return to Washington in early September to celebrate any deal being struck.

Read more on Sky News:
‘Don’t trust Russia,’ diplomat warns
Why peace may be further away, not closer
Five key takeaways from White House talks

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

Trump still has doubts about Putin

Despite the renewed optimism about a peace deal following Monday’s White House summit, Mr Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin might not be sincere about wanting to end the war.

“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” he told Fox News.

He’s previously threatened to put more sanctions on Russia if a peace deal isn’t reached, though previously set deadlines have been and gone.

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Russia launched its biggest air assault on Ukraine in more than a month on Monday night, sending 270 drones and 10 missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.

Ukraine’s European allies in the so-called Coalition of the Willing, an initiative spearheaded by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, discussed additional sanctions to place on Russia on Tuesday.

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about ‘very big mistake’ with Putin

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about 'very big mistake' with Putin

Ukrainians have given a lukewarm reaction to this week’s White House summit.

There is bafflement and unease here after US President Donald Trump switched sides to support his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, dropping calls for a ceasefire and proposing that Ukraine surrender territory.

While allies are talking up the prospects of progress, people here remain unconvinced.

Ukraine war latest – Trump rules out using US troops

Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum

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What security guarantees could work?

The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.

MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.

“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”

For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.

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Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.

They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.

We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.

Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
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Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations

He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.

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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”

Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.

But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.

Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.

Read more on Sky News:
Putin wasn’t there, but influenced summit
Peace further away, not closer
Five takeaways from White House talks

Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.

While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.

Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.

If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.

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What would US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine look like?

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What would US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine look like?

Promises of security guarantees for Ukraine have been lauded as “game-changing” and “historic” in the hope of bringing an end to the war with Russia.

As all eyes moved from Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska to talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, the White House claimed Russia has agreed to the US providing ‘NATO-style protection’ when the fighting ends.

Trump rules out US troops in Ukraine; latest updates

Although there has been no confirmation from the Kremlin, Ukraine, the UK, and other Western allies say details of a post-war security agreement will be finalised in the coming days.

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Monday. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Monday. Pic: AP

What has been said so far?

Security guarantees have long been talked about as a way of ensuring peace in Ukraine when fighting comes to an end.

Since March, when the UK and France spearheaded a largely European ‘coalition of the willing’ and potential peacekeeping force, many have claimed it would be ineffective without American backing.

The US has repeatedly refused to be drawn on its involvement – until now.

Two days after Mr Putin travelled to Alaska for talks with the Trump team, US special envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Russia had agreed to Ukrainian security guarantees.

He claimed that during the summit, the Kremlin had conceded the US “could offer Article-5 like protection”, which he described as “game-changing”. Article 5 is one of the founding principles of NATO and states that an attack on any of its 32 member states is considered an attack on them all.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Pic: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque
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Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Pic: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque

This was bolstered by the US president himself after he met his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington on Monday. He said the pair had “discussed security guarantees”, which would be “provided by the various European countries” – “with coordination with the United States of America”.

Writing on X the following day, the Ukrainian leader said the “concrete content” of the security agreement would be “formalised on paper within the next 10 days”.

US reports say security agreement talks will be headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

What would security guarantees look like?

Very few details have emerged so far, despite the series of high-profile meetings.

Speaking to Fox News on Tuesday, Mr Trump said European nations are going to “frontload” the security agreement with soldiers.

“They want to have boots on the ground”, he told the broadcaster, referring to the UK, France, and Germany in particular.

He insisted the US would not send ground troops, adding: “You have my assurance and I’m president.”

Sir Keir Starmer said the coalition of the willing is “preparing for the deployment of a reassurance force” in the event of “hostilities ending”.

This was the original basis for the coalition – soldiers from various European and allied nations placed strategically across Ukraine to deter Russia from launching future attacks.

Sir Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron in Washington on Monday. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron in Washington on Monday. Pic: AP

But troops alone are unlikely to be enough of a deterrent for Vladimir Putin, military analyst Sean Bell says.

“This is all about credibility and I don’t think boots on the ground is a credible answer,” he tells Sky News.

Stationing soldiers along Ukraine’s 1,000-mile border with Russia would require around 100,000 soldiers at a time, which would have to be trained, deployed, and rotated, requiring 300,000 in total.

A map of the Ukrainian-Russian border
Image:
A map of the Ukrainian-Russian border

The entire UK Army would only make up 10% of that, with France likely able to contribute a further 10%, Bell says.

Several European nations would feel unable to sacrifice any troops for an umbrella force due to their proximity to Ukraine and risk of further Russian aggression.

“You’re not even close to getting the numbers you need,” Bell adds. “And even if you could, putting all of NATO’s frontline forces in one country facing Russia would be really dangerous – and leave China, North Korea, Iran, or Russia free to do whatever they wanted.”

History of failed security agreements in Ukraine

Current proposals for Ukrainian security guarantees are far from the first.

In December 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum alongside the UK, US, and Russia.

The Ukrainians agreed to give up their Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons in exchange for recognition of their sovereignty and a place on the UN’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Twenty years later in 2014, however, Russia violated the terms with its illegal annexation of Crimea and the war between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian in the Donbas region.

Similarly, the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 were designed to bring an end to the Donbas war.

Mediated by France and Germany, they promised a ceasefire, withdrawal of weapons, and local elections in the separatist-occupied Donbas, but were repeatedly violated and failed to result in lasting peace.

‘Article 5-like protection’

When Mr Witkoff first mentioned security guarantees again, he described them as “Article 5-like” or “NATO-style”.

Article 5 is one of the founding principles of NATO and states that an attack on any of its 32 member states is considered an attack on them all.

It has only ever been invoked once since its inception in 1949 – by the US in response to the 9/11 attacks of 2001.

Russia has repeatedly insisted Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO and cited the risk of it happening among its original reasons for attacking Kyiv in 2022.

NATO general-secretary Mark Rutte has said Ukrainian membership is not on the table, but that an alternative “Article 5-type” arrangement could be viable.

The alliance’s military leaders are due to meet on Wednesday to discuss options.

It is not clear how such a special security agreement and formal NATO membership would differ.

Bell says that negotiations on this – and any surrendering of Ukrainian territory – will be the two most difficult in ending the war.

But he stresses they are both key in providing the “flesh on the bones” to what the coalition of the willing has offered so far.

“It will be about trying to find things that make the Western commitment to the security of Ukraine enduring,” Bell adds.

US airpower, intelligence and a better Ukrainian military

Other potential options for a security agreement include air support, a no-maritime zone, intelligence sharing, and military supplies.

Imposing either a no-fly over Ukraine or no-maritime zone across the Black Sea would “play to NATO’s strengths” – as US air and naval capabilities alone far outstrip Russia’s, Bell says.

Sharing American intelligence with Kyiv to warn of any future Russian aggression would also be a “massive strength” to any potential deterrence force, he adds.

Ukraine is already offering to buy an extra $90bn (£66.6bn) in US weapons with the help of European funds, Mr Zelenskyy said this week.

And any security agreement would likely extend to other military equipment, logistics, and training to help Ukraine better defend itself years down the line, Bell says.

“At first it would need credible Western support, but over time, you would hope the international community makes sure Ukraine can build its own indigenous capability.

“Because while there’s a lot of focus on Ukraine at the moment, in five years’ time, there will be different governments and different priorities – so that has to endure.”

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