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The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.

A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.

A poll released on Sunday showed Mr Trump ahead of the president in five key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.

Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.

Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.

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How much influence does America have over Israel?

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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge

Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.

In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.

The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.

They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.

What will decide the election outcome?

To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.

Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election
Image:
Victoria Spratz and Adam Smith discuss the upcoming election

ON ISSUES

Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.

Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.

ON AGE

Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.

Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.

ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.

Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.

Biden. Pic: AP
Image:
Joe Biden. Pic: AP

ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.

Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.

ON LEADERSHIP

Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.

Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.

Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)

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They are hurting but managing to find hope in ‘tomorrow’ – the residents who have lost everything in the LA fires

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They are hurting but managing to find hope in 'tomorrow' - the residents who have lost everything in the LA fires

They are the displaced and there are tens of thousands of them, 600 in an evacuation centre we visited.

From elderly people who fled without their medication, to pregnant mothers desperate to escape the smoke, they had nowhere else to go.

Jim Mayfield, who has lived in the northern suburb of Altadena for 50 years, wept as he told me his dogs, Monkey and Coca, were all he had left.

He said: “The fire was coming down, a ball of fire, it hadn’t made it to my house, but then I woke up and I seen it so I had to start evacuating.

“I had to grab my dogs, I didn’t have enough water and my house is burned down to the ground.”

Thousands of buildings have been burned to the ground
Image:
Thousands of buildings have been burned to the ground since the fires in Los Angeles started

Sheila Kraetzel, another elderly resident, relived the sense of terror as homes were engulfed by the flames.

She said: “I smelt smoke, I was sleeping, and my dog alerted me that there was trouble.

More on California Wildfires

“When I looked outside, there were embers floating across my yard.

“My whole neighbourhood is gone.”

“It was a beautiful, unique place,” she added, smiling.

Thousands of firefighters have been working around the clock to contain the wind-driven fires in California
Image:
Firefighters have been working around the clock to contain the wind-driven fires

Asked how she could smile, she fought back tears and replied: “Well, there’s tomorrow you know.”

How anyone could find hope amid the destruction we have witnessed here is beyond me.

Read more:
Scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history
In pictures: Before and after the blazes
What caused the fires?

There are people handing out food and water, medical staff doing what they can. Volunteers have rallied from far and near.

Buildings destroyed in fires

One of them, Stephanie Porter, told me it felt “heavy” inside the centre.

“You walk through and see the despair on people’s faces, not knowing what their next step is, not knowing if their house is still standing,” she said.

“I had to take a few moments… and kind of cry, and then you go back to serve.

“It just breaks your heart.”

Three miles up the road, Altadena resembles a war zone, but residents have not been allowed to return.

When they finally do, they’ll discover there’s nothing left of the material lives they left behind.

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Sam Moore, who sang Soul Man in the duo Sam & Dave, dies

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Sam Moore, who sang Soul Man in the duo Sam & Dave, dies

Sam Moore, who sang Soul Man and other 1960s hits in the legendary Sam & Dave duo, has died aged 89.

Moore, who influenced musicians including Michael Jackson, Al Green and Bruce Springsteen, died on Friday in Coral Gables, Florida, due to complications while recovering from surgery, his publicist Jeremy Westby said.

No additional details were immediately available.

Moore was inducted with Dave Prater, who had died in a 1988 car crash, into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1992.

The duo, at the Memphis, Tennessee-based Stax Records, transformed the “call and response” of gospel music into a frenzied stage show and recorded some of soul music’s most enduring hits, including Hold On, I’m Comin’.

Sam Moore performs with Bruce Springsteen in 2006. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sam Moore performs with Bruce Springsteen in 2006. Pic: Reuters

Many of their records were written and produced by the team of Isaac Hayes and David Porter and featured the record label’s house band Booker T & the MGs.

Sam & Dave faded after their 1960s heyday but Soul Man hit the charts again in the late 1970s when the Blues Brothers, John Belushi and Dan Aykroyd, recorded it with many of the same musicians.

More from Ents & Arts

Moore had mixed feelings about the hit becoming associated with the Saturday Night Live stars, remembering how young people believed it originated with the Blues Brothers.

Sam & Dave broke up in 1970 and neither had another major hit.

Moore later said his drug habit played a part in the band’s troubles and made record executives wary of giving him a fresh start.

Sam Moore with Justin Timberlake at the Memphis Music Hall of Fame induction ceremony in 2015. Pic: AP
Image:
Sam Moore with Justin Timberlake at the Memphis Music Hall of Fame induction ceremony in 2015. Pic: AP

He married his wife Joyce in 1982, and she helped him get treatment for his addiction that he credited with saving his life.

Read more from Sky News:
Tom Holland’s dad confirms Zendaya engagement
The victims of the LA fires

Moore spent years suing Prater after his former partner hired a substitute and toured as the New Sam & Dave.

He also lost a lawsuit claiming the pair of aging, estranged singers in the 2008 movie Soul Men was too close to the duo.

In another legal case, he and other artists sued multiple record companies and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists in 1993, claiming he had been cheated out of retirement benefits.

Despite his million-selling records, he said in 1994 his pension amounted to just 2,285 US dollars (£1,872), which he could take as a lump sum or in monthly payments of 73 US dollars (£60).

“Two thousand dollars for my lifetime?” Moore said at the time. “If you’re making a profit off of me, give me some too. Don’t give me cornbread and tell me it’s biscuits.”

Moore wrote Dole Man, based on Soul Man, for Republican Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign and was one of the few entertainers who performed at President Donald Trump’s inaugural festivities in 2017.

Eight years earlier, he objected to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s use of the song Hold On, I’m Comin’ during his campaign.

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of 'most destructive' blazes in modern US history

The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.

In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.

Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.

More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.

“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.

These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.

Beachfront properties are left destroyed by the Palisades Fire, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Image:
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA

Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.

“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.

“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.

The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.

The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.

Sentinel
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades Fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Image:
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub

Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.

These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.

At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.

The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.

These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.

 

On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.

The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.

At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.

Fires map

On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.

Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.

The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.

“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.

“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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