The next US presidential election will take place a year today – and the Democrats think it will be “very close”.
A memo from the party hierarchy is consistent with opinion polls that indicate a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee.
The president led in Wisconsin, according to the poll for the New York Times and Siena College.
Mr Biden, spending a working weekend at his Rehoboth beach house in Delaware, has been briefed on the Israel/Gaza situation by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
How that conflict and the war in Ukraine play into a year of campaigning will depend on their course and consequences.
Biden’s stewardship of US involvement in international conflict will be but one factor influencing the minds of voters, even if it’s lower down a list of campaign issues than the economy, jobs, abortion and US democracy itself.
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Trump & Biden: 2 distinct cases, 1 political wedge
Add all of that to the age of the incumbent and questions about infirmity. Opponents of Donald Trump say he faces similar questions.
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In terms of the strategy of winning an election, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, wrote in her election memo that it would mirror the tactics that won in 2020 – to draw a contrast with what she called “MAGA extremism”.
The Make America Great Again movement that once carried Donald Trump to the White House gives him momentum still, in spite of legal travails that see him facing 91 charges across four criminal trials in the coming months.
They come on top of one civil case in which he was found liable for sexual abuse, and another in which he was found liable for fraud, after falsely inflating the value of Trump properties.
What will decide the election outcome?
To explore what might shape the next 12 months, we brought together politicians from both sides of the House of Representatives – Democrat Adam Smith, and Republican Victoria Spartz.
ON ISSUES
Adam Smith: Certainly abortion is a huge issue. The efforts to ban abortion nationwide has certainly motivated a lot of people to vote. That will be a motivating factor. Overall, I think the two biggest issues are going to be the economy and democracy. If Donald Trump is re-elected president, a lot of us are concerned that it will be the end of our democracy and I think people share that concern.
Victoria Spratz: I wish we would spend more time trying to unite and do something good for the country. We’re not dealing with border security. This is a very serious issue. We want to help the rest of the world but we need to keep our republic strong.
ON AGE
Victoria Spratz: People age differently, but I think people can observe and make decisions themselves. Who is much better, who we’ve got, who is affected by age? I don’t have to say, to make a comment on that.
Adam Smith: Trump’s just as old as Biden, like two years short. So age really isn’t a factor in that contest. At this point, I think both Trump and Biden are old, but both of them seem perfectly capable of doing their job. I think it’s the policies that are really going to drive this.
ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT
Adam Smith: To be perfectly honest, most elections are about domestic issues. I don’t know that it’s going to have a huge impact. People want to know that there’s stable leadership, but I think they’re going to care a lot more about the economy, about abortion, about the strength of our democracy, about the border. I think those are the issues that are going to drive the election in 2024.
Victoria Spratz: I have to agree that it is going to be a domestic issues. I think Joe Biden has a chance to find common ground on the issues of debt and border security. And it remains to be seen. But if he’s not willing to deal with the domestic issues, I think it’s going to hurt him significantly.
ON TRUMP’S LEGAL TROUBLES
Victoria Spratz: I think American people are getting fed up with that. A lot of his opposition might shoot themselves in the foot and the American people will say “it’s enough” and it actually might help Trump.
Adam Smith: Ultimately. I think it will hurt him. That record is not a good one. Financially, in terms of business, in terms of what he did on the insurrection on January 6, in terms of trying to steal the election in 2020 – I don’t think that helps him in a general election.
ON LEADERSHIP
Victoria Spratz: Trump was much tougher on foreign policy and his toughness brought a lot of deterrence. I think President Biden, he’s not a bad person, but he’s very political. He has very political people around him. So everything is driven by politics. Government takes some backbone and strength. I truly believe we need to have much tougher leadership with dealing with domestic issues, border security, debt and dealing with foreign issues. So, I think Trump would be much stronger if he’s the nominee.
Adam Smith: The greatest strength that the United States of America has – what we have over China and Russia – is our system of partnerships and alliances. And Trump, while he was president, tried to break up pretty much every single one of those. He wanted us out of NATO. He wanted us to stop supporting South Korea. He wanted us to be “America First” and push the rest of the world away. I think that makes it more dangerous, not less.
Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News next Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)
As the two most powerful countries in the world, the relationship between the United States and China is the most consequential of all bilateral ties.
Any change in interactions and behaviour by either side does not just impact security, economic activity and trade in Washington and Beijing, but also affects the rest of the planet.
President Xi Jinping chose to make this point publicly as he said hello – and presumably goodbye – to Joe Biden when the two men met on the sidelines of an economic forum in Peru in what was likely their last face-to-face sit down before the US leader hands the keys to the White House over to Donald Trump.
“As two major countries, China and the United States should bear in mind the interest of the whole world and inject more certainty and positive energy into the turbulent world,” Mr Xi said, speaking through a translator.
“It is my consistent belief that as the world’s most important bilateral relationship, a stable China-US relationship is critical not only to the interests of the Chinese and American peoples but also to the future and destiny of the entire humanity.”
Mr Biden, whose relationship with his opposite number does not just span his four years as president but also when he previously served as vice president under Barack Obama, also focused on the importance of dialogue.
“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said, sitting at a long table, surrounded by aides, with Mr Xi opposite him.
“I think that’s vital. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict. Be competition, not conflict.”
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While clearly directed at him, it is doubtful that Mr Trump will heed the advice.
He has consistently criticised the Biden administration for being too soft on Beijing and has vowed to be much tougher – even saying he would impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.
The president-elect’s picks for top jobs in the White House, such as with China hawks Senator Marco Rubio as his desired secretary of state, and Representative Mike Walz as national security adviser, also point to a hardening in the US’ position on Beijing – which is on a trajectory to overtake Washington as the world’s number one superpower.
This moment of re-ordering in global dominance – something the UK was once forced to absorb when the sun set on the British Empire – is on course to happen regardless of who is in the White House.
But a more hostile and combative commander-in-chief in the White House makes it an increasingly perilous time for everyone.
It is perhaps why the current leaders in Beijing and Washington are so keen to stress that while their feelings towards one another go up and down, the ability to keep talking is critical.
Joe Biden has met with Xi Jinping for the last time as US president, where the Chinese leader said he is “ready to work” with Donald Trump.
Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru, Mr Biden said the US and China’s relationship should be about “competition, not conflict”.
“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said.
“We’ve never kidded one another. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict.
“We’ve been level with one another. I think that’s vital.”
But despite Mr Trump’s proposed measures, Mr Xi said his country’s goal “of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged”.
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“Our commitment to mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and… cooperation as principles for handling China-US relations remains unchanged,” he added.
The Chinese president then said the country is “ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition”.
Neither Mr Xi nor Mr Biden responded to a question about whether there were concerns about Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs.
The president-elect has also named several China hawks to his transition team, such as Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Representative Mike Waltz as national security adviser.
Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson says the health scare in June, which forced the postponement of his boxing match with Jake Paul, almost cost him his life.
“I almost died in June,” Tyson wrote on X, adding that he “had 8 blood transfusions. Lost half my blood and 25lbs in hospital”.
The 58-year-old, who lost to the YouTuber-turned-boxer in a unanimous points decision in Texas, tweeted that the situation was far worse than people had realised.
Following Tyson’s recovery, after reportedly suffering an ulcer flareup, he reflected on the result of the fight.
“This is one of those situations when you lost but still won… no regrets to get in the ring one last time,” he said.
That contrasts with Tyson’s comments after the match in which he refused to confirm whether it would be his last fight.
“It depends on the situation,” Tyson said before suggesting a fight with Paul’s older brother, Logan Paul, who was standing near him in the ring.
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Critics argued that the revised match – which involved fewer and shortened rounds, as well as heavier gloves – fell short of entertaining.
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Paul beats Tyson by unanimous decision
Some claimed it appeared more like a glorified sparring session.
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It was Tyson’s first sanctioned pro bout since 2005, when he lost to Kevin McBride and then went into retirement – only briefly reappearing for an exhibition match in 2020 against Roy Jones Jr.
Paul has plenty to prove
Paul, 27, still has plenty to prove. The social media influencer wants to be a championship fighter and compete for a championship belt within two years. “I think it could happen in the next 24 months,” Paul said.
“I truly, truly believe in my skills and my ability and my power. And the cruiserweight division is seemingly open for the taking on that timeline,” he added.
The only professional match he has lost so far has been to Tommy Fury, the less-accomplished brother of former heavyweight champion Tyson Fury.
But there are questions about when Paul will fight a contender in his prime, as opposed to former champions or mixed martial artists.
Intriguingly, in the days before his fight with Tyson, Paul mentioned super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez, considered one of the best boxers in the world.
According to reports, the Texas bout earned Paul $40m (£31.7m) versus $20m (£15.8m) for Tyson.
Netflix said 60 million households worldwide viewed the contest on its streaming platform, and nearly 50 million tuned in to watch the undercard which saw Ireland’s Katie Taylor beat Puerto Rico’s Amanda Serrano.
Even so there were some technical glitches. More than 90,000 users reported problems on Netflix at its peak, according to the website Downdetector, which tracks outages.