Maybe there will be a breakthrough in the hours or couple of days ahead.
But it doesn’t feel likely from the language we’ve heard from the men (they are all men) driving the war and the diplomacy in this conflict.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, spent Friday in Israel meeting the Israeli leadership and Saturday in Jordan meeting Arab leaders.
He was threading the tightest of diplomatic needles: maintaining full support for Israel’s right to defend itself while demonstrating to the world that America is capable of influencing events to bring about an end to civilian casualties.
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‘What will it take for a pause in Gaza?’
The Israeli objectives are clear and perhaps summarised most succinctly by war minister Benny Gantz to me on Friday.
“Everything that happens in Gaza right now is rightly connected to break Hamas and release the hostages. All the rest are simply details.”
Those “details” were outlined by the Jordanian foreign minister alongside Mr Blinken in Jordan.
He reminded the world that 3,700 children have died in Gaza in the last four weeks. That’s more, he said, than all the children killed in all conflicts globally since 2019.
He added that the situation in Gaza will create “a sea of hatred that will define generations to come”.
That’s the deep long-term concern. The damage may already have been done – hatred sowed through events generated by the protagonists on both sides – but the extent of the impact depends, most immediately, on the ability to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Image: Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis in southern Gaza
What’s the difference between a ceasefire and a humanitarian pause?
The Arab nations and the United Nations secretary-general are calling for an immediate ceasefire.
The Americans, the British and many other Western nations are choosing different language – a humanitarian pause.
What’s the difference? A ceasefire is political in nature, providing parameters to allow for negotiations. There’s no way Israel is anywhere near close to negotiations with anyone in Gaza. Even on hostages, they are clear: unconditional release now.
A humanitarian pause is, as the name suggests, humanitarian, not political. Its singular aim is to provide space for aid to get in and civilians to get out.
Image: A Palestinian carries a wounded boy after an Israeli strike in the Nusseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Pic: AP
Israel believes aid will be passed to Hamas
So what’s the problem? Well, Israel doesn’t believe that the aid (fuel for hospitals included) won’t be passed to Hamas for war purposes.
America’s special envoy to the crisis, David Satterfield, said this weekend that he has not seen any attempts by Hamas to interfere with or take aid shipments destined for civilians from the few trucks allowed in last week.
But that hasn’t prompted Israel to change course so far. It begs the question: how much influence does Biden’s America really have over an ally that changed after the 7 October attacks?
Image: Palestinians comfort a crying man after losing relatives under the rubble of a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. Pic: AP
Gaza fuel will only last a few days
What’s at stake? Well beyond the colossal civilian death toll (and the lasting impact that will have) here are a few numbers passed to me by a senior UN official this weekend.
Gaza has about 160,000 litres of fuel left. That will last a few days. After that, the hospital generators shut down, the sewage system shuts down, and the lights go out.
There are about 9,000 cancer patients in Gaza right now. There are 1,000 dialysis patients, 50,000 pregnant women.
Some 5,000 women give birth every month in Gaza; that’s about 160 babies born every day in hospitals under bombardment which could soon have no electricity.
These are the “details” as Israel responds in the only way it says it can to its darkest day exactly a month ago.
Lawyers for Luigi Mangione have called on a judge to block federal prosecutors from seeking the death penalty against him.
Mangione’s legal team says the 27-year-old’s case has been turned into a “Marvel movie” after a failed bid by the US Justice Department to indict him on terrorism charges over the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson in New York on 4 December.
New York state judge Gregory Carro said there was no evidence that the killing, which took place as Mr Thompson walked into an investor conference at the New York Hilton Midtown hotel, amounted to a terrorist act.
But Judge Carro upheld second-degree murder charges, which suggest there was malicious intent – but not that it was premeditated.
US Attorney General Pam Bondi has called for Mangione to face capital punishment, describing the charges against him as a “premeditated cold-blooded assassination that shocked America”.
But in the new court filing, Mangione’s legal team argues federal prosecutors have “violated Mr Mangione’s constitutional and statutory rights” by “staging a dehumanizing, unconstitutional ‘perp walk’ where he was televised, videotaped, and photographed clambering out of a helicopter in shackles” on the way to his first court appearance.
The legal team, led by former Manhattan prosecutor Karen Friedman Agnifilo, also claims the death penalty case has been “fatally prejudiced” after President Donald Trump commented on it on Fox News.
Despite laws that prohibit any pre-trial commentary that could prejudice the defendant’s right to a free trial, he told the network on Thursday: “Think about Mangione. He shot someone in the back, as clear as you’re looking at me or I’m looking at you.”
Image: UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson.
Pic: UnitedHealth Group/AP
The defence team’s 114-page court filing reads: “There is a high bar to dismissing an indictment due to pretrial publicity.
“However, there has never been a situation remotely like this one where prejudice has been so great against a death-eligible defendant.”
Federal prosecutors have until 31 October to respond to the documents.
Mangione has pleaded not guilty to all the state charges against him, which cannot result in the death penalty and only life imprisonment, unlike federal ones. He has also pleaded not guilty to the federal charges.
He is due back in court for a pre-trial hearing in the state case on 1 December and the federal case on 5 December.
The 27-year-old was arrested five days after Mr Thompson was killed – when he was spotted at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, around 230 miles west of New York City.
Journalists at the Pentagon have been told they could be barred if they gather or report information that officials haven’t approved first.
Reporters’ access to the iconic building, the headquarters of the US defence department, is also being curtailed.
Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, posted on X: “The ‘press’ does not run the Pentagon – the people do.
“The press is no longer allowed to roam the halls of a secure facility. Wear a badge and follow the rules – or go home.”
A memo announcing the changes was sent to reporters on Friday, informing them “information must be approved for public release by an appropriate authorizing official before it is released, even if it is unclassified”.
They must sign an agreement agreeing to the new rules or face having their press pass revoked.
Journalists’ groups said it was a dangerous move that would seriously restrict their ability to hold defence officials to account.
The National Press Club called it “a direct assault on independent journalism at the very place where independent scrutiny matters most: the US military”.
The Society of Professional Journalists said it “would deny the American people the transparency and accountability they deserve”.
“This policy reeks of prior restraint – the most egregious violation of press freedom under the First Amendment – and is a dangerous step toward government censorship,” it said.
“Attempts to silence the press under the guise of ‘security’ are part of a disturbing pattern of growing government hostility toward transparency and democratic norms.”
Image: The Pentagon is home to the newly rebranded Department of War
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The first year of US President Donald Trump’s second term has seen several embarrassing episodes for the Pentagon.
A journalist revealed in March that he had accidentally been included on a group chat, which included the defence secretary and vice president, discussing plans to attack Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The Pentagon said no classified information had been shared but opponents said it showed a worryingly lax approach that could endanger US troops.
Doubts were also raised about America’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites earlier this year after a leaked intelligence report suggested the attack had only set the regime back “by months”.
President Trump and the CIA both hit back hard against the report, with the president insisting the underground facilities had been “blown to kingdom come”.
A man has been killed and several other people injured in a shooting at a US country club hosting a wedding, police in New Hampshire have said.
Aerial pictures above the Sky Meadow Country Club in Nashua show emergency responders at the scene.
A suspect was detained at the scene by police officers who said “a single male had entered the club and fired several shots”.
Eyewitness reports said the country club was hosting a wedding, and diners were also eating at its restaurant when the suspect entered and began shooting people.
New Hampshire congresswoman Maggie Goodlander said in a statement she was “closely monitoring the tragic reports” and that her heart was with the victims, their families and the entire community.
Image: Ambulances park outside a hotel acting as a reunification centre after the shooting. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
At a news conference, Peter Hinkley, senior assistant attorney general of New Hampshire, said “people don’t think things like this happen on a Saturday night in Nashua in New Hampshire”.
Nashua is about 45 miles (70 kilometres) northwest of Boston, just across the Massachusetts border. It is the only city in America to be ranked Number 1 Best Place to Live by Money magazine twice.
More on New Hampshire
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Forbes magazine ranked it America’s seventh most liveable city.
Attorney general John Formella and Nashua Police Department chief Kevin Rourke issued a statement:
“This evening officers responded to 911 calls from the Sky Meadow Country Club in Nashua for reports of gunshots.
“From investigation, a single adult male entered the club and fired several gunshots. One adult male was shot and killed, and several other people were wounded.”