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China’s astounding solar manufacturing expansion is going to dominate the global solar supply chain – and widen the technology and cost gap.

China invested over $130 billion into the solar industry in 2023. As a result, it will hold more than 80% of the world’s polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module manufacturing capacity from 2023 to 2026, according to Wood Mackenzie‘s recent report, “How will China’s expansion affect global solar module supply chains?”

China is projected to bring more than 1 terawatt (TW) of wafer, cell, and module capacity online by 2024. That means the country’s capacity is sufficient to meet annual global demand through 2032, based on Wood Mackenzie’s forecasts of annual demand growth. 

Huaiyan Sun, senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie and author of the report, said:

China’s solar manufacturing expansion has been driven by high margins for polysilicon, technology upgrades, and policy support.

And despite strong government initiatives for developing local manufacturing in overseas markets, China will still dominate the global solar supply chain and continue to widen the technology and cost gap with competitors.

China is the world’s solar powerhouse…

The US, Europe, and other markets have launched unprecedented solar manufacturing pushes. The US and India combined have announced more than 200 gigawatts (GW) of planned module capacity since 2022. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) drove the surge in the US, and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) increased solar module capacity in India.

But Wood Mackenzie says they’re still not cost-competitive compared to China’s supply. According to the report, a module made in China is 50% cheaper than one produced in Europe and 65% cheaper than the US.

Sun adds, “Despite considerable module expansion plans, overseas markets still cannot eliminate their dependence on China for wafers and cells in the next three years.”

When it comes to tech innovation, China will continue to lead. It’s announced it will build more than 1,000 GW of N-type cell capacity, the next-gen technology after P-type. (N-type cells have longer carrier life and higher efficiency.) That’s 17 times more N-type cell capacity than the rest of the world.

… But not everything is coming up roses

There’s intense competition and oversupply in the Chinese market, and that’s not expected to change anytime soon. As a result, some expansion plans are being canceled.

Old production lines that manufacture lower-efficiency products, such as the P-type and M6 cells, are where the oversupply problem is occurring. Demand for P-type cells began to decline this year, and Wood Mackenzie analysts expect it to be only 17% of supply by 2026. 

Sun said that “more than 70 GW of capacity in China has been terminated or suspended in the past three months.” As a result, China’s solar manufacturing industry is going to have a rough time. Module manufacturers will be forced to take orders at a loss, reduce capacity, or even shut down entirely.

Read more: Solar panel exports are breaking records – now let’s install them

Photo: China News Service


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Lucid (LCID) has no plans to launch a $20,000 EV, but it could help create one

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Lucid (LCID) has no plans to launch a ,000 EV, but it could help create one

That $20,000 luxury Lucid EV you’ve been waiting for will likely never hit the market. CEO Peter Rawlinson said Lucid (LCID) has no plans to launch a $20K vehicle. However, it could play a role in bringing cheaper EVs to market.

After its third straight quarter of record deliveries in Q3, Lucid is gaining traction. The EV maker is now outselling its German luxury rivals in the US, including the Porsche Taycan and Mercedes EQS.

Lucid’s Air even outsold the Tesla Model S in the third quarter. According to Kelley Blue Book, Lucid sold 1,944 Air models in Q3, up 33% from last year, while Tesla Model S sales slipped 47% to 1,669.

The company’s growing sales come despite many media headlines claiming that EV sales are slowing or cooling.

On The Wall Street Journal’s recent Bold Names podcast, Rawlinson said there is a “false narrative” that EVs are in decline. Sales are still up, Rawlinson explained, but they may not be climbing as fast as some had predicted.

Lucid’s CEO is not surprised by some legacy automakers’ “lame efforts.” According to Rawlinson, the company was established for a different reason. Lucid exists “to advance the state of the art of EVs,” the company’s CEO said on the podcast.

Lucid-$20K-EV
Lucid Gravity SUV (left) and Air (right) (Source: Lucid)

Is Lucid launching a $20K EV?

In 2021, Lucid launched the first EV with over 500 miles range. To this day, “There’s no competitor within 100 miles of that car,” according to Rawlinson.

Lucid is focused on efficiency or enabling more range with fewer batteries. To promote widespread adoption, Rawlinson said we must hit the core issue: the cost of batteries as a function of their size.

Lucid-$20K-EV
Lucid Air (Source: Lucid)

To get there, Lucid had to start with a high-end premium product, its luxury Air sedan. The company’s leader said Lucid exists to advance “the state of the electric car” with its advanced tech. In other words, it is about driving down costs while unlocking more driving range with smaller, more efficient technology.

So does this mean we will eventually see a $20,000 Lucid EV hit the market? It’s still not likely. According to Rawlinson, Lucid has no plans to build a $20K EV because “that market sucks.”

Lucid-$20K-EV
Lucid Air (Source: Lucid)

Lucid’s CEO pointed to Porsche, one of the most profitable legacy automakers, saying, “It doesn’t operate in that sphere.”

Meanwhile, Rawlinson explained that Lucid is “commercially viable in the future.” He believes that is where Lucid could have an opportunity to license its tech.

Enabling cheaper EVs

Regarding a $20K or $25K EV, the company’s advanced tech will “enable that tomorrow,” Rawlinson said, but it will not be a Lucid vehicle. When asked, “Are you going to build that $20,000 vehicle?” Lucid’s CEO responded, “No, because that market sucks.”

The mass market segment has “terrible low margins,” and that’s not where the company is trying to compete.

Lucid-tech-advantage
(Source: Lucid Motors)

Rawlinson said other OEMs already have the manufacturing network and could put such a vehicle in place.

The premium EV maker plans to launch several lower-cost vehicles on its upcoming midsize platform, but they will still be around $50,000. Lucid’s midsize SUV, which is due out in 2026, will be “priced around 48 to $50,000,” Rawlinson confirmed.

Lucid-midsize-SUV
Lucid midsize electric SUV teaser image (Source: Lucid)

That’s the price range Lucid wants to do business in, but licensing its tech will enable others to make more affordable products.

Rawlinson said when the new midsize model model launches, “we become a Tesla competitor, head-to-head.” Lucid’s CEO said he believes the upcoming EV will be “massively better than a Tesla Model Y.” He added:

Because of our technological advantage, we should be able to make that car with its competitive range, but with less batteries than anyone else.

According to Rawlinson, doing so will not only save resources but also “allow a better gross margin per vehicle than anyone else.”

That is the game plan, the “chess game” Lucid is playing. Although the media portrays Lucid as a Tesla competitor now, the company is actually targeting Mercedes and Porsche. In a few years, it will challenge Tesla head-to-head with its midsize SUV.

Lucid-$20K-EV
Lucid Air (left) and Gravity SUV (right) models (Source: Lucid)

Before that, Lucid is launching its first electric SUV, the Gravity. It has already begun taking orders for the higher-end $94,000 model, which is scheduled to enter production later this year. A more affordable $80,000 version is planned for late 2025.

After securing another $1.75 billion through a recent capital raise, Lucid said it has enough funding for “well into 2026,” right in time for the midsize model.

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The US’s first onshore wave energy project gets the green light

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The US's first onshore wave energy project gets the green light

Eco Wave Power (Nasdaq: WAVE) has secured the final permit from the US Army Corps of Engineers to install its first onshore wave energy system in the US at AltaSea’s site in the Port of Los Angeles. This pilot project will be the first of its kind in the US.

The permit, issued under Nationwide Permit 52 for water-based renewable energy generation pilot projects, allows Eco Wave Power to install eight wave energy floaters on the existing concrete wharf at Municipal Pier One. The setup will include an energy conversion unit housed in two 20-foot shipping containers, which are already on-site and ready to go. Eco Wave Power plans to complete the US’s first onshore wave energy installation by the end of Q1 2025.

Eco Wave Power’s floaters – the blue dinghy-like things in the water in the photo above, which are in Gibraltar – convert the rising and falling motion of the waves into energy generation.

The movement of the floaters compresses and decompresses the connected hydraulic pistons that transmit biodegradable hydraulic fluid into accumulators on land, where pressure builds. The pressure rotates a hydraulic motor, which rotates the generator, and then electricity is transferred into the grid via an inverter. After decompression, the fluid flows back into the hydraulic fluid tank, where it’s then reused by the pistons, creating a closed circular system.

The whole wave-energy power station is controlled and monitored by a smart automation system.

Eco Wave Power partnered with Shell in April 2024 on the Port of Los Angeles wave energy pilot in April 2024, and the two companies will work together on the execution phase of the project now that the permit is in place.

Inna Braverman, CEO of Eco Wave Power, said, “We are thrilled to receive this final permit and move one step closer to bringing wave energy to the US. This project represents not only a technological breakthrough but also a crucial step in advancing the global transition to renewable energy.”

Eco Wave Power operates the first grid-connected wave energy system in Israel and is also preparing to install projects in Taiwan and Portugal.

Wave energy holds massive potential. The US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that wave energy could potentially generate enough energy to power hundreds of millions of homes. Eco Wave Power’s aim is for its Port of Los Angeles pilot project to advance wave energy as a potential reliable and mainstream renewable power source.

Read more: China powers up the world’s largest open-sea offshore solar farm


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Damon insists its always-next-year 200 MPH electric motorcycle isn’t vaporware

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Damon insists its always-next-year 200 MPH electric motorcycle isn't vaporware

Damon Motorcycles, the startup that in 2019 unveiled a flashy electric motorcycle intended to best its combustion engine-powered competition, has announced that it has gone public and will assemble its first production-intent motorcycles next year.

The company’s announcement today claims that it has gone public on the Nasdaq and touts its US $100M in “deposit backed reservations”. The deposit amounts vary, but for the brand’s flagship US $40,000 Damon HyperFighter Colossus, the US $250 fully-refundable deposit would imply somewhere around 2,500 to 3,000 reservations.

However, those reservations have been rolling in for quite some time and many were likely based on the brand’s earlier announcements and unveilings – several of which trickled out between 2019 and 2022.

But the company’s founder and CEO Jay Giraud says riders should still expect Damon to make good on its promises of a 200 mile, 200 mph, and 200 hp (320 km, 320 km/h, 150 kW) electric motorcycle coming next year.

“Our vision is resonating with a global community that’s ready for a more modern riding experience – what the old guard keeps selling year after year has gotten stale,” explained Giraud. “And reaching $100M in reservations is a pretty good indication that it’s time to think different.”

For years now we’ve heard that Damon’s upcoming electric motorcycles won’t only be powerful sport bikes, but will also be brimming with new technology and advanced features never before seen in motorcycling.

That technology suite includes a feature that Damon first touted in January of 2020 known as CoPilo, an AI-enhanced 360º collision warning system, as well as Shift™, electronically adaptive ergonomics that transform the riding position from sport to commuter on the fly.

While a shapeshifting motorcycle with 360 degree AI-enhanced vision sounded like science fiction when the company was launched in 2019, we’ve since seen affordable commuter e-motos like Ryvid rollout frame-shifting tech that lets owners adjust the bike’s geometry while actively riding, and startups like RiderDome are already providing 360-degree AI-enhance motorcycle sensor systems.

Damon Motorcycles could still reach uncharted territory if the company can produce a 200 mph and 200 hp electric motorcycle with its claimed 200 miles of highway range, but that still sounds like a big “if.”

For now, the most up-to-date goalpost location appears to now be 2025, though the company is only claiming to be preparing “for assembly of a fleet of production intent vehicles in 2025.” It remains to be seen when true production will begin and that supposed US $100M sitting out there can be converted into bikes

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