Five questions facing the CFP committee before the second ranking
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
The second ranking could be very easy for the College Football Playoff selection committee after its top eight teams all won in Week 10. It’s not always that simple, though, when the committee “begins each week with a blank sheet of paper” and “what happened last year does not matter.”
That’s why the back-to-back defending national champs weren’t the committee’s No. 1 team in its initial ranking. Was No. 2 Georgia’s win against No. 12 Mizzou enough to change that in the committee’s second of six rankings, unveiled at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday night on ESPN?
Maybe, though Ohio State is still ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have the most difficult time achieving the same undefeated record against the Buckeyes’ opponents to this point.
While there wasn’t a lot of drama on the scoreboard, there are still several pressing questions facing the committee this week that at least have the potential to alter its second ranking.
1. Has Georgia done enough to unseat the Buckeyes?
One of the most significant Week 10 results was Georgia’s win against Missouri, which gave the Bulldogs their first victory against a CFP-ranked opponent. While Georgia added to its playoff résumé, Ohio State did not, beating an unranked but improved Rutgers team on the road.
The committee doesn’t rank teams based on a weekly snapshot, though. It will continue to compare Ohio State and Georgia based on their résumés to date, and assuming Penn State and Notre Dame are still top-25 wins, the Buckeyes will still edge Georgia with their schedule strength.
It didn’t help Ohio State that Notre Dame dropped to three losses after losing at Clemson, which is a four-loss team. It also didn’t help Georgia that Florida lost at home to Arkansas, and the Gators are now a four-loss team. One of the reasons Georgia was No. 2 and ahead of Michigan last week was because the committee valued its wins against Kentucky and Florida more than any opponents the Wolverines had defeated.
Another consideration is how valuable the win against Mizzou was, and that will be determined in part by how far the Tigers fall tonight. If Georgia earns a promotion to the top spot Tuesday, it would most likely be justified by the committee deeming the Bulldogs a better team while citing Ohio State’s first-half struggles at Rutgers. They’d have to explain, though, how that was different than Georgia’s first-half struggles against Mizzou.
2. Will Washington crack the top four?
Washington’s Oct. 14 win against Oregon is arguably the best in the country, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee last week. The only difference this week is that Washington bolstered its case Saturday with a double-digit road win at No. 20 USC. The question is how much the committee values that win now that Trojans are a three-loss team.
Washington’s pedestrian performances in wins against Arizona State (2-7) and Stanford (3-6) are why the committee put the Huskies at No. 5 in its first ranking. While it was another offensive clinic for Washington against USC, the defense allowed at least 30 points for the second straight week. None of the undefeated teams above Washington lost, so if the Huskies move up, it would be because of the road win against a ranked CFP team.
3. Is Oregon still the top one-loss team?
This is a question only because Alabama now has three top-25 wins: against Ole Miss, Tennessee and now LSU. Oregon has one statement win — Oct. 28 at Utah.
The Ducks have been one of the most complete teams in the country, and the committee has and will continue to honor Washington’s head-to-head win against Oregon as long as the Huskies stay undefeated. Will the committee continue to do the same for Texas, which beat Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa in Week 2?
It would be surprising if it didn’t — which would leave teams ranked 5-8 in the same order — but Alabama has made significant strides against ranked competition in back-to-back weeks. It also has a better résumé than Texas, save for of course its loss to the Longhorns. The Tide are No. 4 in strength of record, while Texas follows at No. 5. That could at least generate some debate in the room as to whether the Tide should be any higher.
4. Does Ole Miss have a shot at the playoff?
The Rebels are a long shot to win the SEC, but if they run the table and finish with one loss, they will at least get some consideration. Winning the division will be extremely difficult even if the Rebels run the table because they still need Alabama to lose twice. That’s unlikely to happen, considering Alabama plays two unranked SEC opponents (Kentucky and Auburn), and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Tide at least an 80% chance to win each game.
If Ole Miss beats Georgia on Saturday, though, it will have the best win in the country, plus two other wins against ranked opponents in LSU and Tulane. A win Saturday would be even more impressive considering it’s in Athens. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss has a 31% chance to beat Georgia and a 26% chance to finish 11-1.
If that scenario unfolds, Ole Miss will have a 23% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. So much of that, though, depends on what happens in the other Power 5 conference championship games — and how the SEC title game unfolds. If Georgia were to win the SEC, and Ole Miss beat the SEC champs … that’s a serious conversation for the committee.
Saturday’s opportunity against Georgia gives Ole Miss the best chance of any of the teams hovering around the top 10. Louisville has an outside chance if it runs the table and wins the SEC, but an 11-1 Ole Miss without an SEC title would have a better résumé than a 12-1 Louisville that won the ACC.
5. Is LSU the committee’s top three-loss team?
LSU is a critical common opponent for both Florida State and Alabama, which both beat the Tigers and need the win to continue to impress the committee. It’s also impactful to Ole Miss (see: No. 4). LSU still ranks No. 16 in strength of record, the highest of any three-loss team.
If LSU is the committee’s top three-loss team as expected, where does Notre Dame (7-3) land? Ohio State should have a top-10 win against Penn State, but how will the committee value its close road win against the Irish? The Irish are No. 22 in strength of record metric, the second highest ranking of any three-loss team behind LSU.
Just like that, the 2024-25 MLB hot stove has kicked off! We had a trade just one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers hoisted the World Series championship trophy.
All eyes this winter were on the top free agent, young slugger Juan Soto, who left the New York Yankees for a record contract with the New York Mets. But he’s not the only one who will make a splash in the market.
Which teams will go all-in to contend for a 2025 World Series title? Where will other top free agents such as Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman land? And who will make the trades and deals that have everyone buzzing?
Below is a running list of notable transactions and updates from throughout the MLB offseason.
Free agency, trade grades | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Notable MLB offseason transactions
Jan. 30
Blue Jays land Scherzer on one-year deal
Right-hander Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a one-year, $15.5 million contract, sources told ESPN on Thursday. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 29
Reds trade for late-inning arm
The Cincinnati Reds are finalizing a trade to acquire left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers from the San Francisco Giants, sources tell ESPN. Story »
Rays land infielder Kim
Infielder Ha-Seong Kim and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a two-year, $29 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first season, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Tigers further fortify bullpen with Kahnle
Right-handed reliever Tommy Kahnle and the Detroit Tigers are in agreement on a one-year, $7.75 million contract, pending physical, sources told ESPN. Story »
Mets add hard-throwing Stanek to pen
Right-hander Ryne Stanek and the New York Mets are in agreement on a one-year deal, a source told ESPN. Story »
Jan. 28
Dodgers sign All-Star reliever Yates
Right-handed reliever Kirby Yates and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on a one-year, $13 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Can get up to $14M with 55 games pitched. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 26
Cubs trade for veteran reliever Pressly
The Chicago Cubs are finalizing a trade to acquire closer Ryan Pressly from the Houston Astros, pending medical review, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 23
Braves land All-Star outfielder in Profar
Outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Atlanta Braves are finalizing a three-year, $42 million contract, sources tell ESPN.
Jan. 20
Blue Jays add Santander to outfield
The Toronto Blue Jays and outfielder Anthony Santander are in agreement on a five-year contract worth $92.5 million, giving the team one of the best hitters available this offseason after failed attempts to land a marquee free agent in recent years. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 19
Dodgers nab Scott for bullpen
The Los Angeles Dodgers have added left-hander Tanner Scott, arguably the best relief pitcher on the free agent market, agreeing to terms on a four-year, $72 million contract, sources told ESPN on Sunday. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 17
Japanese ace Sasaki picks Dodgers
Roki Sasaki, the prized Japanese pitching prospect who has had scouts drooling over his potential since high school, has chosen the Los Angeles Dodgers as his major league team, he announced on Instagram on Friday. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 16
Winker returns to Mets on one-year deal
Outfielder Jesse Winker and the New York Mets have agreed on a one-year deal, a source confirmed to ESPN amid multiple reports Thursday. Story »
Jan. 10
Blue Jays sign top reliever Hoffman
The Toronto Blue Jays announced they have signed right-handed reliever Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33 million deal. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 7
Giants add Verlander on one-year deal
Right-hander Justin Verlander and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a one-year, $15 million contract, sources told ESPN on Tuesday, continuing the future Hall of Famer’s career at age 42 in one of the pitcher-friendliest stadiums in baseball. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 6
Reds acquire Lux in trade with Dodgers
The Cincinnati Reds acquired infielder Gavin Lux from the Los Angeles Dodgers for a draft pick and an outfield prospect, the teams announced Monday, adding another prime-age hitter to a team that hopes to ascend in the National League Central this season. Story » | Grades »
Royals bring back pitcher Lorenzen
Right-hander Michael Lorenzen and the Kansas City Royals agreed on a one-year, $7 million contract, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Jan. 3
Dodgers land star KBO infielder
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement with Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim on a 3-year, $12.5 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN on Friday. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 30
Nats sign Bell to one-year deal
The Washington Nationals have agreed to terms with first baseman Josh Bell on a one-year contract worth $6 million, according to multiple reports. Story »
Dec. 29
Cubs and Marlins swap infielders
The Chicago Cubs acquired utility man Vidal Bruján on Sunday, sending first baseman Matt Mervis to the Miami Marlins in a swap of former top-100 prospects. Story »
Dec. 28
Burnes joins D-backs on $210 million deal
Right-hander Corbin Burnes and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a six-year, $210 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 27
Dodgers bring back All-Star outfielder Hernandez
Outfielder Teoscar Hernández and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on a three-year, $66 million contract, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Tigers add Torres to infield on one-year deal
Infielder Gleyber Torres and the Detroit Tigers are in agreement on a one-year, $15 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 23
McCutchen returns to the Pirates
Veteran slugger Andrew McCutchen is returning to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team announced on social media. Story »
Buehler, Red Sox agree to 1-year deal
Right-hander Walker Buehler and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a one-year, $21.05 million contract, sources told ESPN, sending the pitcher who secured the final out of the World Series this year to a team loading up on starting pitching as it pivots toward contention. Story » | Grade »
Rangers add veteran bat Pederson
Outfielder Joc Pederson and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a contract pending a physical, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Manaea returns to Mets on three-year deal
Left-hander Sean Manaea and the New York Mets are in agreement on a three-year, $75 million contract, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 22
Phillies bolster rotation with trade for Luzardo
The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired left-handed starter Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins for two prospects, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN. Story » | Grades »
Nationals land 1B Lowe in trade with Rangers
The Washington Nationals on Sunday acquired first baseman Nathaniel Lowe from the Texas Rangers in exchange for lefty reliever Robert Garcia. Story » | Grades »
Dec. 21
Guardians trade Naylor to D-backs, sign Santana
The Cleveland Guardians traded first baseman Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday and quickly replaced him, with sources telling ESPN that they agreed to a one-year, $12 million contract with free agent Carlos Santana, bringing him back for his third stint with the team. Story » | Grades »
Goldschmidt, Yankees agree on 1-year deal
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a one-year, $12.5 million contract, sources told ESPN, pairing the former National League MVP and seven-time All-Star with the American League champion in the midst of a significant overhaul. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 20
Astros bring Walker to Houston
The Houston Astros and free-agent first baseman Christian Walker have agreed to a three-year, $60 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN amid multiple reports. Story » | Grade »
Yanks ship Trevino to Reds for Cruz, Jackson
The New York Yankees traded catcher Jose Trevino to the Cincinnati Reds for right-hander Fernando Cruz and catcher Alex Jackson, the teams announced Friday. Story »
Red Sox add rotation arm
Left-hander Patrick Sandoval and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $18.25 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Story »
A’s land veteran infielder
Gio Urshela is in agreement with the Athletics on a major league contract, sources confirm to ESPN. Story »
Dec. 19
Phillies bolster outfield with Kepler
Outfielder Max Kepler and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a one-year, $10 million contract, pending a physical, sources tell ESPN. Story »
Dec. 17
Yankees land Bellinger in trade with Cubs
OF/1B Cody Bellinger has been traded from the Chicago Cubs to the New York Yankees for right-handed reliever Cody Poteet, sources tell ESPN. (New York will also receive cash considerations.) Story » | Grades »
Dec. 16
O’s, Sugano agree on 1-year, $13M deal
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano and the Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a contract, the team announced Monday night, uniting one of the most successful Japanese pitchers of his generation with a team in need of rotation help. The deal is for one year and $13 million, sources told ESPN. Story »
Dec. 14
A’s acquire lefty Springs from Rays
The Athletics are acquiring left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a six-player trade with the Tampa Bay Rays, the team announced Saturday, continuing their push toward contention with a significant increase in their payroll as they head into their first season in Sacramento. Story » | Grades »
Dec. 13
Cubs land three-time All-Star Tucker in deal with Astros
The Chicago Cubs are acquiring Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Story » | Grades »
Yankees get All-Star closer Williams from Milwaukee
The New York Yankees are acquiring closer Devin Williams from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for left-hander Nestor Cortes, infield prospect Caleb Durbin and cash considerations, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Story » | Grades »
Dec. 11
Loáisiga returns to Yankees
Right-handed pitcher Jonathan Loáisiga and the Yankees have agreed on a one-year contract with a team option for 2026, a source tells ESPN. Story »
Red Sox trading for Crochet
The Boston Red Sox are acquiring left-hander Garrett Crochet in a trade with the Chicago White Sox for four highly-regarded prospects, sources tell ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Story »
Dec. 10
Marlins, Rangers agree to trade for Jake Burger
The Texas Rangers have agreed to a trade for power-hitting corner infielder Jake Burger, sources told ESPN on Tuesday. In exchange, the Miami Marlins will receive two shortstop prospects, Echedry Vargas and Max Acosta, and a young left-handed starting pitcher in Brayan Mendoza. Story » | Grades »
Eovaldi returning to the Rangers
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a three-year, $75 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Guardians and Blue Jays complete trade
The Toronto Blue Jays are finalizing a trade to acquire three-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman Andres Gimenez from the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grades »
Yankees land Fried on $218 million contract
Left-hander Max Fried and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a eight-year, $218 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher. Story » | Grade »
Blue Jays sign pitcher Garcia
The Toronto Blue Jays and right-hander Yimi Garcia are in agreement on a two-year, $15 million contract, a source told ESPN on Tuesday. Story »
Dec. 9
Phillies add Romano to bullpen
Closer Jordan Romano and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a free agent contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Romano was nontendered by Toronto earlier this offseason. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 8
Mets sign Soto for MLB record $765 million
Superstar outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Mets are in agreement on a 15-year, $765 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest deal in professional sports history. Story » | Grade »
Conforto joins Dodgers on $17 million deal
Outfielder Michael Conforto joined the Dodgers on a one-year deal. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 7
Giants, Adames agree on 7 years, $182M
Shortstop Willy Adames and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a seven-year, $182 million contract, the largest outlay in franchise history, sources told ESPN on Saturday. Story » | Grade »
O’s land O’Neill
Outfielder Tyler O’Neill and the Baltimore Orioles are in agreement on a three-year, $49.5 million contract, a source told ESPN, filling a void created by the free agency of slugging outfielder Anthony Santander. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 6
Mets sign Holmes … as a starter
Right-hander Clay Holmes and the New York Mets are in agreement on a three-year, $38 million contract with an opt-out after the second year, sources confirmed to ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Friday night. Story » | Grade »
Rays add catcher Jansen
Catcher Danny Jansen and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a one-year, $8.5 million contract that includes a mutual option for a second season, sources tell ESPN.
Dec. 5
A’s sign Severino to franchise-record contract
Right-hander Luis Severino and the Athletics are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million free agent contract that is the largest guarantee in the franchise’s history, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 3
Red Sox add Chapman to bullpen
Left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a one-year, $10.75 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 2
Cubs sign pitcher Boyd to two-year deal
The Chicago Cubs have added Matthew Boyd to their rotation in their first big offseason move, agreeing to a $29 million, two-year contract with the veteran left-hander, sources confirmed to ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Mets add to rotation with Montas signing
Right-hander Frankie Montas and the New York Mets are in agreement on a two-year, $34 million contract, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 26
Dodgers make splash with Snell signing
Left-hander Blake Snell and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on a five-year, $182 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 25
Angels add to rotation in yet another move
Left-handed starter Yusei Kikuchi is in agreement with the Los Angeles Angels on a three-year, $63 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN on Monday. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 22
Royals trade for position players
The Kansas City Royals traded right-handed pitcher Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer, the teams announced on Friday. Story » | Grades »
Nov. 20
Cubs add reliever in deal with Guardians
The Chicago Cubs are acquiring right-handed reliever Eli Morgan in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN.
Nov. 19
Mets get outfield help in deal with Rays
The New York Mets have acquired outfielder Jose Siri from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Eric Orze. Story »
Nov. 18
Martinez accepts qualifying offer to stay with Reds
Right-hander Nick Martinez accepted the Cincinnati Reds‘ $21.05 million qualifying offer, multiple outlets reported Monday. Story »
Nov. 14
Angels sign infielder Newman to one-year deal
The Los Angeles Angels and infielder Kevin Newman agreed to a one-year $2.5 million contract with a club option for 2026, the team announced . Story »
Red Sox add reliever Wilson
Left-hander Justin Wilson and the Boston Red Sox have agreed to a $2.25 million, one-year contract, according to multiple reports. Story »
Nov. 12
Angels sign d’Arnaud to two-year deal
Catcher Travis d’Arnaud and the Los Angeles Angels are in agreement on a two-year, $12 million contract. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 6
Hedges returns to Guardians on one-year deal
Catcher Austin Hedges and the Cleveland Guardians are in agreement on a one-year contract, sources tell ESPN. Story »
Angels add veteran arm to rotation
Kyle Hendricks is in agreement with the Los Angeles Angels on a one-year, $2.5 million deal, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 3
Royals re-sign Wacha to 3-year deal
Right-hander Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals are in agreement on a three-year, $51 million contract, sources tell ESPN. The deal includes a club option and can max out at four years, $72 million. Story » | Grade »
Oct. 31
Braves make first splash of offseason
The Atlanta Braves are trading outfielder Jorge Soler to the Los Angeles Angels and will receive right-hander Griffin Canning, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Key MLB offseason dates
Dec. 9-12: Winter meetings in Dallas, Texas
Dec. 11: Rule 5 draft
Jan. 9: Deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures
End of January: Arbitration hearings begin
Feb. 22: Spring training games begin
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