The second ranking could be very easy for the College Football Playoff selection committee after its top eight teams all won in Week 10. It’s not always that simple, though, when the committee “begins each week with a blank sheet of paper” and “what happened last year does not matter.”
That’s why the back-to-back defending national champs weren’t the committee’s No. 1 team in its initial ranking. Was No. 2 Georgia’s win against No. 12 Mizzou enough to change that in the committee’s second of six rankings, unveiled at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday night on ESPN?
Maybe, though Ohio State is still ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have the most difficult time achieving the same undefeated record against the Buckeyes’ opponents to this point.
While there wasn’t a lot of drama on the scoreboard, there are still several pressing questions facing the committee this week that at least have the potential to alter its second ranking.
1. Has Georgia done enough to unseat the Buckeyes?
One of the most significant Week 10 results was Georgia’s win against Missouri, which gave the Bulldogs their first victory against a CFP-ranked opponent. While Georgia added to its playoff résumé, Ohio State did not, beating an unranked but improved Rutgers team on the road.
The committee doesn’t rank teams based on a weekly snapshot, though. It will continue to compare Ohio State and Georgia based on their résumés to date, and assuming Penn State and Notre Dame are still top-25 wins, the Buckeyes will still edge Georgia with their schedule strength.
It didn’t help Ohio State that Notre Dame dropped to three losses after losing at Clemson, which is a four-loss team. It also didn’t help Georgia that Florida lost at home to Arkansas, and the Gators are now a four-loss team. One of the reasons Georgia was No. 2 and ahead of Michigan last week was because the committee valued its wins against Kentucky and Florida more than any opponents the Wolverines had defeated.
Another consideration is how valuable the win against Mizzou was, and that will be determined in part by how far the Tigers fall tonight. If Georgia earns a promotion to the top spot Tuesday, it would most likely be justified by the committee deeming the Bulldogs a better team while citing Ohio State’s first-half struggles at Rutgers. They’d have to explain, though, how that was different than Georgia’s first-half struggles against Mizzou.
2. Will Washington crack the top four?
Washington’s Oct. 14 win against Oregon is arguably the best in the country, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee last week. The only difference this week is that Washington bolstered its case Saturday with a double-digit road win at No. 20 USC. The question is how much the committee values that win now that Trojans are a three-loss team.
Washington’s pedestrian performances in wins against Arizona State (2-7) and Stanford (3-6) are why the committee put the Huskies at No. 5 in its first ranking. While it was another offensive clinic for Washington against USC, the defense allowed at least 30 points for the second straight week. None of the undefeated teams above Washington lost, so if the Huskies move up, it would be because of the road win against a ranked CFP team.
3. Is Oregon still the top one-loss team?
This is a question only because Alabama now has three top-25 wins: against Ole Miss, Tennessee and now LSU. Oregon has one statement win — Oct. 28 at Utah.
The Ducks have been one of the most complete teams in the country, and the committee has and will continue to honor Washington’s head-to-head win against Oregon as long as the Huskies stay undefeated. Will the committee continue to do the same for Texas, which beat Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa in Week 2?
It would be surprising if it didn’t — which would leave teams ranked 5-8 in the same order — but Alabama has made significant strides against ranked competition in back-to-back weeks. It also has a better résumé than Texas, save for of course its loss to the Longhorns. The Tide are No. 4 in strength of record, while Texas follows at No. 5. That could at least generate some debate in the room as to whether the Tide should be any higher.
4. Does Ole Miss have a shot at the playoff?
The Rebels are a long shot to win the SEC, but if they run the table and finish with one loss, they will at least get some consideration. Winning the division will be extremely difficult even if the Rebels run the table because they still need Alabama to lose twice. That’s unlikely to happen, considering Alabama plays two unranked SEC opponents (Kentucky and Auburn), and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Tide at least an 80% chance to win each game.
If Ole Miss beats Georgia on Saturday, though, it will have the best win in the country, plus two other wins against ranked opponents in LSU and Tulane. A win Saturday would be even more impressive considering it’s in Athens. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss has a 31% chance to beat Georgia and a 26% chance to finish 11-1.
If that scenario unfolds, Ole Miss will have a 23% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. So much of that, though, depends on what happens in the other Power 5 conference championship games — and how the SEC title game unfolds. If Georgia were to win the SEC, and Ole Miss beat the SEC champs … that’s a serious conversation for the committee.
Saturday’s opportunity against Georgia gives Ole Miss the best chance of any of the teams hovering around the top 10. Louisville has an outside chance if it runs the table and wins the SEC, but an 11-1 Ole Miss without an SEC title would have a better résumé than a 12-1 Louisville that won the ACC.
5. Is LSU the committee’s top three-loss team?
LSU is a critical common opponent for both Florida State and Alabama, which both beat the Tigers and need the win to continue to impress the committee. It’s also impactful to Ole Miss (see: No. 4). LSU still ranks No. 16 in strength of record, the highest of any three-loss team.
If LSU is the committee’s top three-loss team as expected, where does Notre Dame (7-3) land? Ohio State should have a top-10 win against Penn State, but how will the committee value its close road win against the Irish? The Irish are No. 22 in strength of record metric, the second highest ranking of any three-loss team behind LSU.
BROOKLYN, Mich. – Denny Hamlin is pulling off quite a juggling act.
Hamlin outlasted the competition at Michigan International Speedway for his third NASCAR Cup Series victory of the season and 57th of his career, juggling his roles as a driver, expectant father and co-owner of a racing team that’s suing NASCAR.
“The tackle box is full,” Hamlin said Sunday. “There’s all kinds of stuff going on.”
Hamlin, in the No. 11 Toyota, went low to pass William Byron on the 197th of 200 laps and pulled away from the pack to win by more than a second over Chris Buescher.
“Just worked over the guys one by one, giving them different looks,” he said.
The 44-year-old Hamlin was prepared to leave his team to join his fiancée, Jordan Fish, who is due to give birth to their third child, a boy. If she was in labor by Lap 50 or sooner at Michigan, he was prepared to leave the track.
Hamlin said he would skip next week’s race in Mexico City if necessary to witness the birth.
To add something else to Hamlin’s plate, he is also co-owner of 23XI Racing with Michael Jordan, which is involved in a lawsuit against NASCAR.
He drives for Joe Gibbs Racing, which hadn’t won at Michigan in a decade.
“I think it’s the most underrated track that we go to,” said Hamlin, who has won three times on the 2-mile oval.
Hamlin became JGR’s winningest driver, surpassing Kyle Busch‘s 56 victories, and the 10th driver in NASCAR history to win after his 700th start.
“It feels good because I’m going to hate it when I’m not at the level I’m at now,” he said. “I will certainly retire very quicky after that.”
Hamlin’s team set him up with enough fuel to win while many drivers, including Byron, ran out of gas late in the race.
“It really stings,” said Byron, the points leader, who was a season-worst 28th. “We just burned more (fuel) and not able to do much about that.”
Hamlin, meanwhile, wasn’t on empty until his celebratory burnout was cut short.
Pole-sitter Chase Briscoe was out front until Byron passed him on Lap 12. Buescher pulled ahead on Lap 36 and stayed up front to win his first stage this season.
Byron took the lead again after a restart on Lap 78 as part of his strong start and surged to the front again to win the second stage.
Carson Hocevar took the lead on Lap 152 and was informed soon thereafter that he didn’t have enough fuel to finish, but that became moot because a flat tire forced him into the pits with 18 laps to go.
Hocevar faded to a 29th-place finish, a week after he was second to match a career best at Nashville, where he created a buzz with an aggressive move that knocked Ricky Stenhouse Jr. out of the race.
Rough times for Bowman
Bowman hit a wall with the front end of his No. 48 Chevrolet as part of a multi-car crash in his latest setback.
“That hurt a lot,” he said after passing a medical evaluation. “That was probably top of the board on hits I’ve taken.”
Bowman, who drives for Hendrick Motorsports, came to Michigan 12th in points and will leave lower in the standings. He has finished 27th or worse in seven of his last nine starts and didn’t finish for a third time during the tough stretch.
Reddick rallies
Defending race champion Tyler Reddick qualified 12th, but started last in the 36-car field because of unapproved adjustments and rallied to finish 13th.
Up next
NASCAR shifts to Mexico City for its first points-paying international race in modern history on June 15.
In another move announced Sunday, the Milwaukee Brewers claimed outfielder Drew Avans off waivers from the Athletics and assigned him to their Triple-A Nashville affiliate.
The 34-year-old Wynns had batted .400 with a .442 on-base percentage, 3 homers and 11 RBIs in 18 games with the Reds.
Avans, who turns 29 on Friday, had gone 1-for-15 in seven games with the Athletics this season. He had hit .328 with a .414 on-base percentage, 4 homers, 34 RBIs and 16 steals in 48 games with the Athletics’ Triple-A Las Vegas affiliate.
The Minnesota Twins placed right-hander Zebby Matthews on the 15-day injured list Sunday with a right shoulder strain.
The move is retroactive to Thursday for Matthews, who owns a 1-1 record with a 5.21 ERA in four appearances (all starts) this season since being called up to the roster on May 18.
Matthews, 25, is 2-5 with a 6.19 ERA in 13 career appearances (all starts) with Minnesota.
Also Sunday, the Twins activated left-hander Danny Coulombe from his rehab assignment and reinstated him from the 15-day injured list. Coulombe, who is working his way past a forearm injury, be available out of the bullpen for Sunday’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Minneapolis.
Coulombe, 35, made one rehab appearance with Triple-A St. Paul, pitching one scoreless inning on Friday night against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
He pitched 16 2/3 scoreless innings over 19 relief appearances with Minnesota this season before being placed on the injured list on May 18.