Hard to see how Rishi Sunak’s first King’s Speech won’t be his last

Published

6 months ago

November 7, 2023

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The King’s Speech is supposed to be the landmark moment in the life of parliament.

It is the occasion for a prime minister to set down his or her mission for government, and outline the laws they will pass to try to achieve their goals.

But this year, the moment will belong to King Charles III, rather than Rishi Sunak, for two reasons.

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First is the sheer symbolism of the new monarch delivering the first King’s Speech in over seven decades.

An epoch-making moment, it reminds us all in the most formal of settings, laced with symbolism, that we have passed from the first Elizabethan era to the new Carolean age.

Second is the reality of Mr Sunak’s predicament.

His first King’s Speech in power will be less about landing a vision and more about holding position, for this is a prime minister running out of time and with little space to push through new ideas.

Running out of time because very little can be done between now and an election when it comes to enacting new laws.

And even if Mr Sunak can get legislation onto the statute book, there isn’t time for that to make a material difference to voters before a general election.

He is also a prime minister constrained by a resistive rump in his party who he is not willing to take on.

Running out of ideas, because what we expect to see in the King’s Speech is hardly a grand plan for government.

Mr Sunak is instead going for a combination of new laws to create dividing lines with Labour ahead of the election (including annual oil and gas licensing, and strike laws), seeing through policies being worked up by predecessors (such as leasehold reform) and the odd Sunak initiative (banning tobacco sales for anyone born on or after January 2009 and longer jail sentences of violent offenders).

Talk to his team and they frame the King’s Speech as a “continuation” of what the prime minister has sought to put in place from the summer onwards – his tilt at long-term decision making as they put it, rather than a “wow moment”.

One senior insider said: “The King’s Speech isn’t a conference speech or an Autumn Statement. There isn’t a new shiny policy.

“It’s not going to be a wow moment, but it’s a continuation of travel of where we have been going and delivering, rather than focusing on polls day to day and week to week.”

Instead, Number 10 argues that the programme for government backs up the prime minister’s commitment to long-term decision-making; through growing the economy – be that energy security, regulatory frameworks for tech; strengthening society with legislation on smoking, reform on leaseholds and dealing with antisocial behaviour; more action on crime and safety and focusing on our national interest, be that around climate change, artificial Intelligence or security.

King’s Speech live: Watch our special programme on Sky News, hosted by Sophy Ridge, from 10.30am today. You will also be able to follow the event live via the Politics Hub on the Sky News app and website.

But some colleagues believe the sum of parts in this speech doesn’t add up to much and certainly not a cogent vision for a country losing patience with the Conservatives.

“There’s not much in here on cost of living,” says one senior colleague who laments that Mr Sunak didn’t do more on housing – planning and green belt reform – ahead of the general election to show voters he really is a candidate for change.

“It would have been bold, but it got shoved in the too-hard-to-do box,” said the former senior minister. “A load of colleagues – 50 even 70 – would be against it, but when you have Labour and Starmer nimby bashing, you’d have got it through with Labour votes and send a message to under 40s that we are serious about helping them.”

And there are pockets of Mr Sunak’s backbenches, MPs looking to Canadian Tory leader Pierre Poilierve as inspiration, noting that his decision to turn the Conservatives into the party of housebuilding has revived the centre right’s fortunes and brought younger voters.

But Mr Sunak does have his eye on an election in a different way, as he uses the King’s Speech to try to lay traps for Labour, to draw dividing lines between the government and the opposition over thorny issues that have the potential to ignite in voters’ minds – be it around net zero and environmental policies (think the row over ultra-low emission zones) or strikes.

On the former, the government will legislate for annual North Sea oil and gas licensing rounds to highlight the PM’s “pragmatic, proportionate and realistic” approach to net zero, in contrast to Labour, which has said it will honour existing licenses but has ruled out granting new ones.

The PM will also introduce new strike laws to protect public services over Christmas, with minimum service regulations for rail workers, ambulance staff and border security staff.

Number 10 figures believe these dividing lines showcase Mr Sunak’s values while also putting Labour on the spot about theirs.

But Labour insiders tell me they are “not worried” about the attacks.

“If they want to talk about their track record on energy bills and strikes, we’d be very happy,” says one figure close to Sir Keir Starmer.

Another senior party figure said this approach just showed how out of touch the Tory party is.

“Finding dividing lines for us? Do they seriously think that is how voters want to see the government run the country?

“Sunak’s meant to be the change? Where’s the change? Where are the answers to the big challenges facing the country on the cost of living and the NHS. It’s just more of the same. It doesn’t deal with the things voters care about.”

Even as Westminster chews over the content of the speech, while taking in the spectacle, I suspect the country has tuned out.

Because in the political backdrop to Tuesday’s pageantry, the problems are piling up for the prime minister.

It is the grisly details of the COVID inquiry revealing a government that was woefully unprepared and ill-equipped to tackle the pandemic at a moment of national crisis.

There are serious questions being raised as to whether the Conservative Party failed to act on rape allegations surrounding an MP and instead paid for an alleged victim to receive treatment in a private hospital.

The prime minister said on Monday that the allegations were “very serious” as he urged anyone with evidence of criminal acts to talk to the police.

There is the Daily Mail’s serialisation of former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries’s book on the downfall of Boris Johnson again throwing into sharp relief party infighting, while disquiet grows among some MPs about the home secretary’s provocative language, be it around protest marches or the homeless.

All of it has turned the public off, say some Conservative MPs, who fear that, whatever Mr Sunak does now, he won’t be able to get voters to tune back in.

This is his first King’s Speech – and it’s hard at the moment to see how it won’t end up his last.

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer to announce ‘first steps’ for government in ramping up of election campaign

Published

3 hours ago

May 16, 2024

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Sir Keir Starmer to announce 'first steps' for government in ramping up of election campaign

Sir Keir Starmer will outline his “first steps” for government at a launch event to kickstart the next phase of Labour’s campaign for the general election.

The party leader will host the event in the potential battleground of Essex, where he will pledge to build on the five “missions” he set out last year.

Among the first steps “to change Britain” will be Labour’s pledge to deliver economic stability, cut NHS waiting times, launch a new border security command, set up publicly-owned energy firm Great British Energy, crack down on antisocial behaviour and recruit 6,500 new teachers.

Sir Keir told his shadow cabinet that, following a successful set of May local elections that saw the party steal the West Midlands mayor title from the Tories, the “next phase” of the party’s strategy was “crucially important”.

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Alongside the launch will be an advertising campaign – described by a party spokesman as the largest spend since the previous general election – that will see the Labour leader appear on ad vans and billboards alongside the six steps.

However, a spokesman stressed the steps will not be the “sum total” of the party’s election offer.

Sir Keir told members of his frontbench that “each of the first steps would chime with voters’ aspirations, show a clear set of priorities and a powerful direction of travel”.

“Stability is change”, he also told them.

The Tories hit out at what they said was Labour’s “sixteenth relaunch”, adding that it “won’t amount to a hill of beans”.

The “steps” will be provided to voters in physical form, but Labour steered away from directly comparing this to the pledge card given out by Sir Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 general election.

Separate Scottish and Welsh launches are expected in coming weeks with offers aimed at voters in the devolved nations, the party said.

Richard Holden, the Tory Party chair, said: “Sir Keir Starmer’s been Labour leader for four years but still has no coherent plan.

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“Labour’s asylum amnesty, colossal unfunded spending commitments, and higher taxes would take us back to square one and it’s clear his sixteenth relaunch won’t amount to a hill of beans.”

“Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are sticking to the plan which is working to strengthen the economy – with inflation down from 11.1% to 3.2% and £900 back in hard-working people’s pockets – and a fair immigration system with boat crossings down.”

Politics

SEC custody rule made crypto regulation a ‘political football’ — Rep. Nickel

Published

8 hours ago

May 16, 2024

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SEC custody rule made crypto regulation a ‘political football’ — Rep. Nickel

The SEC’s proposed crypto custody rule and its “hostility” to the industry isn’t in Joe Biden’s “best interests,” Representative Wiley Nickel told Gary Gensler.

Politics

Sunak and Starmer facing historic unpopularity with ethnically diverse communities, polling suggests

Published

12 hours ago

May 15, 2024

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Sunak and Starmer facing historic unpopularity with ethnically diverse communities, polling suggests

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are both facing a historic lack of popularity among ethnically diverse communities, new polling suggests.

While ethnically diverse community voting trends are incredibly complex and almost always hard to predict, some polling can give useful indications that can speak to the mood of the country.

A comprehensive set of data based on polling by Ipsos and shared exclusively with Sky News gives us a general sense of how the leaders of the two main parties are faring at this very specific time.

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Sunak more popular with white voters

Mr Sunak was named the UK’s next leader on the festival of Diwali, serving as a reminder of the milestone in Britain’s evolution as a multicultural and multi-faith society.

He’s the UK’s first prime minister from an ethnically diverse background and the first Hindu prime minister, but in terms of how much ethnically diverse communities have rewarded him for these historic firsts, it’s a somewhat surprising figure.

Over the past year, his approval rating among ethnically diverse communities is -53.

That figure is historic too – it’s one of the worst of any prime minister in nearly 30 years.

Actually, from these figures, he’s much better liked by white voters – who give him a rating of -41.

This is perhaps unsurprising, given that historically the majority of ethnically diverse communities have voted Labour.

Though support for the Conservatives reached a high of 30% in the first half of 2016 and only falling sharply in the aftermath of Brexit and then in the 2017 general election under a different leader.

Sir Keir behind Blair and Brown

For the Labour Party then, the stakes could not be much higher as they bill themselves as the party of equality and progressive politics and ethnically diverse communities have traditionally rewarded them for it.

The party has consistently held large leads with ethnically diverse community voters over the last few decades and under previous Labour leaders, often given net positive satisfaction levels.

The current leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has a more favourable rating than the current prime minister, with an average satisfaction rating over the past year of -32.

But he is also considerably more popular among white voters.

And when you compare these numbers to previous Labour leaders, it is more stark.

Sir Keir’s standing with ethnically diverse community voters currently is the lowest level a Labour leader has recorded among black and south Asian voters since 1996.

Far worse than the very worst ratings recorded by either Tony Blair (at -11 during the Iraq War) or Gordon Brown (at -13).

‘The Gaza Effect’

Now, there are myriad reasons why individuals and different communities have drifted from the central parties and traditional voting patterns, but Ipsos has outlined one specific thread of dissatisfaction with both parties that they call “The Gaza Effect”.

During by-elections and the recent local elections we saw a wave of independent candidates running on this single issue platform, most prominently George Galloway in Rochdale, but this data shows an indication of how deep that sentiment runs.

When you compare the aggregate satisfactions levels across the year for both leaders, you can see how different ratings become for ethnically diverse communities when compared to white voters.

For white voters, there’s next to no effect in satisfaction levels towards the two leaders post 7 October.

When you compare that data to the rating ethnically diverse community voters have given the two leaders, there is a noticeable drop in support.

For Mr Sunak the drop is only around 13 points, but for Sir Keir, it is far more significant with a huge fall of 29 points.

The scale of the impact is almost impossible to predict, and the drop in these figures won’t necessarily translate into votes or even seats – but what is clear is these figures show both parties will need to offer ethnically diverse communities much more to win their vote at the next election.