CNBC Daily Open: Goolsbee’s ‘golden path’ is still visible

Published

1 year ago

November 8, 2023

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Austan Goolsbee, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, US, on Friday, Aug. 25, 2023.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

A fierce winning streak
U.S. stocks rose Tuesday to hit fresh winning streaks, their longest in three years. Europe’s Stoxx 600 closed 0.16% lower. The oil and gas sector dropped 2.5%, weighed down by Saudi oil giant Aramco’s 23% fall in third-quarter net profit and a decline in oil prices. UBS shares rose 1.83% after the bank reported its first full quarterly results since taking over Credit Suisse.

Microsoft closes at a high
Microsoft shares climbed 1.12% to hit $360.53, a record high. It’s the eighth consecutive day in which the technology giant’s shares rose, a streak unseen since January 2021. Investors cheered Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s surprise appearance at OpenAI’s event, where he encouraged developers to build with Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure.

Peak, not pause?
The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all paused interest rate hikes in recent weeks. This breather comes after dramatic hikes over the last 18 months as central banks grappled with unruly inflation. Some market watchers, in fact, think this lull in hikes isn’t so much a pause but the peak in rates — and are turning their attention to when central banks will start cutting.

Uber’s miss
Uber’s third-quarter results missed analysts’ expectations. The company’s earnings per share came in at 10 cents, compared with the expected 12 cents. Revenue was $9.29 billion, less than the $9.52 billion estimated. Still, on a year-over-year basis, Uber made a net income of $221 million, compared with a net loss of $1.2 billion, while revenue’s up 11% from the same period last year. Shares popped 3.7%.

[PRO] Japan banks to benefit
The Bank of Japan announced last week it would allow more flexibility in its yield curve control policy, taking the upper bound of 1% yield for the 10-year Japan Government Bond “as a reference.” That’s good news for the banking sector, said Goldman Sachs. The investment bank also named its top picks among Japan’s banks, suggesting they would enjoy up to 20% upside on their stock prices.

The bottom line

Last month’s sudden surge in Treasury yields and oil prices — both of which tend to suppress investors’ appetite for stocks — looks to be ending. No, scratch that — the increases aren’t just ending, they’re ebbing.

Look at oil: Contracts for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures fell around $3. WTI’s now at $77.13 a barrel while Brent’s $81.41, their lowest since July. That’s almost $10 per barrel less compared with a month ago, when prices jumped on fears triggered by the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 10 basis points to 4.569% and the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.915%. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. In other words: the Magnificent Seven Big Tech. Amazon led the pack, shooting up 2.13% yesterday.

That explains why the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9%, more than the S&P 500’s 0.28% gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.17% increase. Still, that’s not downplaying the movements. The S&P and Dow are enjoying their seventh consecutive session of gains, while the Nasdaq’s basking in its eighth.

If the U.S. Federal Reserve does indeed steer the economy to a soft landing, in which inflation is contained below 2% without the economy contracting, then there could be a further rally in stocks, said HSBC. Within periods of soft landings, the S&P has jumped, on average, 22% in the space between a pause and six months after rate cuts begin, noted HSBC’s global equity strategist Alastair Pinder.

And that immaculate disinflation isn’t just a dream. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC, “Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path … that we got inflation down without a recession.”

Both the economy and markets have truly acted in strange, unprecedented ways ever since the pandemic. From one of the worst years for stocks and bonds in 2022, to a widely heralded bull rally in the S&P — and then a correction — in 2023. And I haven’t even started on the U.S. labor market and inflation numbers. Strange may be new and unsettling, but it isn’t necessarily bad.

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Trump’s first day, Hyundai lease deals, and Volvo’s EVs arrive in the US

Published

5 hours ago

January 22, 2025

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Trump's first day, Hyundai lease deals, and Volvo's EVs arrive in the US

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, President Trump has a wild first day in office, but it’s not ALL bad, either. Plus: Tesla gets diner integration, Hyundai keeps the deal train rolling, and it’s dad’s 80th birthday.

We also look ahead to some possible discounts for Tesla insurance customers, some news on the upcoming “cheap” Cybertruck, and wonder out loud if Puerto Rico’s billion dollar solar project is going to see the light of day. All this and more – enjoy!

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Stripe cuts 300 jobs in product, engineering and operations

Published

9 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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Stripe cuts 300 jobs in product, engineering and operations

The Stripe logo on a smartphone with U.S. dollar banknotes in the background.

Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images

Stripe cut 300 jobs, representing about 3.5% of its workforce, mostly in product, engineering and operations, CNBC has confirmed.

The payments company, valued at about $70 billion in the private markets, still expects to increase headcount by 10,000 by the end of the year, which would be a 17% increase, and is “not slowing down hiring,” according to a memo to staff from Chief People Office Rob McIntosh. Business Insider reported earlier on the cuts and the memo.

A Stripe spokesperson also confirmed to CNBC that a cartoon image of a duck with text that read, “US-Non-California Duck,” was accidentally attached as a PDF to emails sent to some of the employees who were laid off. Some of the emails mistakenly provided affected employees with an incorrect termination date, the spokesperson said.

McIntosh sent a follow-up email to staffers apologizing for the “notification error” and “any confusion it caused.”

“Corrected and full notifications have since been sent to all impacted Stripes,” he wrote.

In 2022, Stripe cut roughly 1,100 jobs, or 14% of its workers, downsizing alongside most of the tech industry, as soaring inflation and rising interest rates forced companies to focus on profits over growth. The Information reported that Stripe had a few dozen layoffs in its recruiting department in 2023.

Stripe’s valuation sank from a peak of $95 billion in 2021 to $50 billion in 2023, before reportedly rebounding to $70 billion last year as part of a secondary share sale. The company ranked third on last year’s CNBC Disruptor 50 list.

In October, Stripe agreed to pay $1.1 billion for crypto startup Bridge Network, whose technology is focused on making it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies.

Brothers Patrick and John Collison, who founded Stripe in 2010, have intentionally steered clear of the public markets and have given no indication that an offering is on the near-term horizon. Total payment volume at the company surpassed $1 trillion in 2023.

WATCH: Early Bridge investor weighs in on $1.1 billion Stripe deal

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Rivian is offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T

Published

9 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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Rivian is offering up to ,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T

Thinking about upgrading your EV? Rivian (RIVN) launched a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T. Here’s how you can snag some savings.

Rivian R1S and R1T upgrade deal offers up to $6,000

Rivian delivered over 51,500 vehicles last year as the EV maker gains momentum. Although it was only slightly higher than the ~50,100 delivered in 2023, Rivian is expected to see even more growth this year.

After shutting down its Normal, IL manufacturing plant last April and renegotiating supplier contracts, Rivian has seen “significant cost improvements,” according to CEO RJ Scaringe.

Rivian also began delivering its next-gen R1S and R1T models last year. The new Large and Max battery packs have redesigned modules and more efficient packaging, “making them easier to manufacture and service.” For example, Rivian’s new EVs use seven ECUs, down from 17 in the first-generation R1T and R1S.

With new plant upgrades, reworked supplier contracts, and more efficient vehicles, Rivian is now passing the savings on to customers.

Rivian introduced a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1T or R1S. The bonus amount varies by trim:

Tri with Max battery: $6,000 USD / CAD 8,600
Dual with Max battery and Performance upgrade: $4,500 USD / CAD 6,500
Dual with Max battery: $3,000 USD / CAD 4,300

The offer is for current R1T or R1S owners or lessees in the US and Canada. Rivian launched the new promo on January 21, and it runs through March 31, 2025.

After you purchase or lease a qualifying vehicle, Rivian will apply a discount toward the MSRP. You must take delivery by March 31, 2025. In the fine print, Rivian stated, “You must request a trade-in estimate to qualify for this offer, but trade-in of a vehicle is not required.”

Any other models are excluded from the offer. These include Dual Standard configurations, Dual with Large battery configurations, custom builds, demo vehicles, and pre-owned vehicles.

The new offer follows Rivian’s previous upgrade promo introduced last October, giving qualifying gas-powered vehicle owners or lessees up to $3,000.

Check out the Rivian R1 Shop to view eligible models. You can see eligible Rivian R1S here and R1T models here.

Electrek’s Take

Rivian’s R1S was already the tenth best-selling electric vehicle in the US last year, with nearly 27,000 models sold. With more driving range and power at a lower cost, the electric SUV could see even more demand in 2025.

Then again, with the arrival of new luxury electric SUVs, like the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volvo EX90, Rivian will face more competition in the US.

Rivian’s latest promo comes as the Company looks to carry the momentum from the end of 2024 into the new year. The EV maker is offering other deals, including 1.99% APR for 60 months on the R1 Dual with a Max Battery and Performance upgrade.

Even if you are not eligible for the promo, we can still help you find deals on Rivian’s electric SUV in your area. You can use our links below to view offers on the Rivian R1S and R1T near you today.

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