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In downtown Miami at what is usually a centre for the performing arts, preparations are under way for a piece of political theatre.

But the man who should be the lead act is setting up his own show a few miles up the road.

Posters for the third Republican debate have been slapped on every spare inch of the Adrienne Arsht Center with metal barriers marking the perimeter of the building.

On Wednesday evening local time, five of the leading Republican candidates vying to be president will take to the stage inside, in a debate which will be relayed to millions of Americans live on NBC.

The issues are likely to range from the Israel-Hamas conflict to the economy and who can beat Joe Biden next year.

But the man most likely to actually beat Mr Biden won’t be there. Because while his Republican rivals are facing off, Donald Trump will be enjoying uninterrupted and unchallenged stage time at his own rally on the other side of town. Just how he likes it.

Mr Trump doesn’t believe he has to partake in these debates to get the nod from Republican voters and polling suggests, emphatically, he’s right.

More on Donald Trump

His lead has only grown since he missed the first, then the second debate. By most estimates, he’s now at least 30 points clear of his closest rivals, Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida, and Nikki Hayley, a former governor of South Carolina, who is positioning herself as the leading anti-Trumper in the race.

Republican strategist Ryan Williams is convinced the debates are a race for second place.

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Trump’s ‘political rally’ from court

“And a distant second place at that,” he says. “It would have to be an unforeseen event, an illness or an accident or him being hit by a meteor to stop Trump becoming the nominee.”

Being a no show at debates hasn’t diminished the possibility of Mr Trump’s second coming, nor has the merry-go-round of civil and criminal charges against him.

Only this week, he was on the witness stand in a New York court in a case in which it has already been decided he committed fraud. Next year he will stand trial accused of committing crimes against the state. But his support is deepening and not just against Republican rivals.

Polling by the New York Times and Siena this week shows Donald Trump ahead of President Biden in five of six key swing states that Mr Biden won last time round.

“If polls showed him falling behind it might provide an opening for someone,” said Williams.

“But that polling shows that these four prosecutions are not only not harming him with Republican primary voters, they’re not hurting him with independents either. It dispels any attack another candidate might make about him being unelectable.”

The debate is the first since the Israel-Hamas war began and America’s role in the Middle East will likely be sparred over, too.

Nikki Hayley, who has some momentum after the last debate, supports Israel but believes America should only have a limited role in the conflict.

Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum before the first Republican presidential debate Pic: AP
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Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Doug Burgum before the first Republican presidential debate Pic: AP

Ron DeSantis is more aggressive in his support, boasting that planes contracted by Florida brought “hospital supplies, drones, body armour and helmets” to first responders in Israel.

Read more:
What are the investigations Trump is facing?
What we know about Trump’s plans if he returns to White House
Analysis: Carefully curated TV debates are needed both sides of the Atlantic

Mr Trump was initially critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the 7 October attacks, saying he was unprepared. He also called Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant organisation designated a terrorist group, “smart”.

But Israel is unlikely to be a huge determining factor in the Primaries.

“Trump has such strong record of supporting Israel,” says Williams.

“He was the first American president to move the embassy to Jerusalem, and he has a history of siding with Israel completely, so it will be hard to pierce his armour on this.”

It will take some other political cunning or an unexpected event, to overhaul Mr Trump at this stage. But there is still time for these candidates to sell themselves, if any Republican voters out there are still listening.

Watch the Republican presidential primary debate live on Sky News on Thursday: Tune in from midnight on Sky News channel 501, Freeview channel 233 or stream on the Sky News App or YouTube (outside the US)

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Trump: I won’t send US troops to Ukraine – but might help by air

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Trump: I won't send US troops to Ukraine - but might help by air

Donald Trump has said American troops will not be sent to Ukraine, but the US may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.

A day after his extraordinary White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of Kyiv’s European allies, the US president told Fox News “when it comes to security, [Europeans] are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, by air”.

Ukraine war – follow the latest developments

Mr Trump did not elaborate, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters US air support was “an option and a possibility”.

She said the US president “has definitively stated US boots will not be on the ground in Ukraine, but we can certainly help in the coordination and perhaps provide other means of security guarantees to our European allies”.

Air support could take many forms, including missile defence systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone – and it’s not clear what role the US would play under any proposed peace deal.

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What security guarantees could work?

Zelenskyy-Putin summit

It comes as planning for a possible Zelenskyy-Putin summit get under way. Talks between the Ukrainian and Russian president are seen by Mr Trump as vital to ending the war.

Sky News understands a meeting could happen before the end of the month, with Geneva, Vienna, Rome, Budapest, and Doha among the venues being considered.

Geneva, Switzerland, is considered the best option, with Rome or the Vatican disliked by the Russians and Budapest, Hungary, not favoured by the Ukrainians.

European allies are understood to want security guarantees to be defined before the meeting.

A NATO-like treaty, guaranteeing Ukraine’s allies would come to its defence in case of any future Russian attack, is being worked on and could be completed by next week.

Like the US, Sky News understands Italy is opposed to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

But EU diplomats are confident this is the best chance yet to stop the war, and allies could return to Washington in early September to celebrate any deal being struck.

Read more on Sky News:
‘Don’t trust Russia,’ diplomat warns
Why peace may be further away, not closer
Five key takeaways from White House talks

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

Trump still has doubts about Putin

Despite the renewed optimism about a peace deal following Monday’s White House summit, Mr Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin might not be sincere about wanting to end the war.

“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” he told Fox News.

He’s previously threatened to put more sanctions on Russia if a peace deal isn’t reached, though previously set deadlines have been and gone.

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Russia launched its biggest air assault on Ukraine in more than a month on Monday night, sending 270 drones and 10 missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.

Ukraine’s European allies in the so-called Coalition of the Willing, an initiative spearheaded by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, discussed additional sanctions to place on Russia on Tuesday.

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about ‘very big mistake’ with Putin

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about 'very big mistake' with Putin

Ukrainians have given a lukewarm reaction to this week’s White House summit.

There is bafflement and unease here after US President Donald Trump switched sides to support his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, dropping calls for a ceasefire and proposing that Ukraine surrender territory.

While allies are talking up the prospects of progress, people here remain unconvinced.

Ukraine war latest – Trump rules out using US troops

Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum

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What security guarantees could work?

The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.

MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.

“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”

For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.

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Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.

They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.

We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.

Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
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Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations

He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.

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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”

Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.

But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.

Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.

Read more on Sky News:
Putin wasn’t there, but influenced summit
Peace further away, not closer
Five takeaways from White House talks

Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.

While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.

Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.

If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.

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What would US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine look like?

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What would US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine look like?

Promises of security guarantees for Ukraine have been lauded as “game-changing” and “historic” in the hope of bringing an end to the war with Russia.

As all eyes moved from Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska to talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, the White House claimed Russia has agreed to the US providing ‘NATO-style protection’ when the fighting ends.

Trump rules out US troops in Ukraine; latest updates

Although there has been no confirmation from the Kremlin, Ukraine, the UK, and other Western allies say details of a post-war security agreement will be finalised in the coming days.

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Monday. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Monday. Pic: AP

What has been said so far?

Security guarantees have long been talked about as a way of ensuring peace in Ukraine when fighting comes to an end.

Since March, when the UK and France spearheaded a largely European ‘coalition of the willing’ and potential peacekeeping force, many have claimed it would be ineffective without American backing.

The US has repeatedly refused to be drawn on its involvement – until now.

Two days after Mr Putin travelled to Alaska for talks with the Trump team, US special envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Russia had agreed to Ukrainian security guarantees.

He claimed that during the summit, the Kremlin had conceded the US “could offer Article-5 like protection”, which he described as “game-changing”. Article 5 is one of the founding principles of NATO and states that an attack on any of its 32 member states is considered an attack on them all.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Pic: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque
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Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Pic: Reuters/ Kevin Lamarque

This was bolstered by the US president himself after he met his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington on Monday. He said the pair had “discussed security guarantees”, which would be “provided by the various European countries” – “with coordination with the United States of America”.

Writing on X the following day, the Ukrainian leader said the “concrete content” of the security agreement would be “formalised on paper within the next 10 days”.

US reports say security agreement talks will be headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

What would security guarantees look like?

Very few details have emerged so far, despite the series of high-profile meetings.

Speaking to Fox News on Tuesday, Mr Trump said European nations are going to “frontload” the security agreement with soldiers.

“They want to have boots on the ground”, he told the broadcaster, referring to the UK, France, and Germany in particular.

He insisted the US would not send ground troops, adding: “You have my assurance and I’m president.”

Sir Keir Starmer said the coalition of the willing is “preparing for the deployment of a reassurance force” in the event of “hostilities ending”.

This was the original basis for the coalition – soldiers from various European and allied nations placed strategically across Ukraine to deter Russia from launching future attacks.

Sir Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron in Washington on Monday. Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron in Washington on Monday. Pic: AP

But troops alone are unlikely to be enough of a deterrent for Vladimir Putin, military analyst Sean Bell says.

“This is all about credibility and I don’t think boots on the ground is a credible answer,” he tells Sky News.

Stationing soldiers along Ukraine’s 1,000-mile border with Russia would require around 100,000 soldiers at a time, which would have to be trained, deployed, and rotated, requiring 300,000 in total.

A map of the Ukrainian-Russian border
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A map of the Ukrainian-Russian border

The entire UK Army would only make up 10% of that, with France likely able to contribute a further 10%, Bell says.

Several European nations would feel unable to sacrifice any troops for an umbrella force due to their proximity to Ukraine and risk of further Russian aggression.

“You’re not even close to getting the numbers you need,” Bell adds. “And even if you could, putting all of NATO’s frontline forces in one country facing Russia would be really dangerous – and leave China, North Korea, Iran, or Russia free to do whatever they wanted.”

History of failed security agreements in Ukraine

Current proposals for Ukrainian security guarantees are far from the first.

In December 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum alongside the UK, US, and Russia.

The Ukrainians agreed to give up their Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons in exchange for recognition of their sovereignty and a place on the UN’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Twenty years later in 2014, however, Russia violated the terms with its illegal annexation of Crimea and the war between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian in the Donbas region.

Similarly, the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 were designed to bring an end to the Donbas war.

Mediated by France and Germany, they promised a ceasefire, withdrawal of weapons, and local elections in the separatist-occupied Donbas, but were repeatedly violated and failed to result in lasting peace.

‘Article 5-like protection’

When Mr Witkoff first mentioned security guarantees again, he described them as “Article 5-like” or “NATO-style”.

Article 5 is one of the founding principles of NATO and states that an attack on any of its 32 member states is considered an attack on them all.

It has only ever been invoked once since its inception in 1949 – by the US in response to the 9/11 attacks of 2001.

Russia has repeatedly insisted Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO and cited the risk of it happening among its original reasons for attacking Kyiv in 2022.

NATO general-secretary Mark Rutte has said Ukrainian membership is not on the table, but that an alternative “Article 5-type” arrangement could be viable.

The alliance’s military leaders are due to meet on Wednesday to discuss options.

It is not clear how such a special security agreement and formal NATO membership would differ.

Bell says that negotiations on this – and any surrendering of Ukrainian territory – will be the two most difficult in ending the war.

But he stresses they are both key in providing the “flesh on the bones” to what the coalition of the willing has offered so far.

“It will be about trying to find things that make the Western commitment to the security of Ukraine enduring,” Bell adds.

US airpower, intelligence and a better Ukrainian military

Other potential options for a security agreement include air support, a no-maritime zone, intelligence sharing, and military supplies.

Imposing either a no-fly over Ukraine or no-maritime zone across the Black Sea would “play to NATO’s strengths” – as US air and naval capabilities alone far outstrip Russia’s, Bell says.

Sharing American intelligence with Kyiv to warn of any future Russian aggression would also be a “massive strength” to any potential deterrence force, he adds.

Ukraine is already offering to buy an extra $90bn (£66.6bn) in US weapons with the help of European funds, Mr Zelenskyy said this week.

And any security agreement would likely extend to other military equipment, logistics, and training to help Ukraine better defend itself years down the line, Bell says.

“At first it would need credible Western support, but over time, you would hope the international community makes sure Ukraine can build its own indigenous capability.

“Because while there’s a lot of focus on Ukraine at the moment, in five years’ time, there will be different governments and different priorities – so that has to endure.”

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