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It is now a “near certainty” that 2023 will be Earth’s hottest year on record, scientists have said.

The stark warning comes after a record-breaking October, in which global temperatures were 0.4C higher than the previous record for the month, set in 2019.

“This is a huge margin,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

She described the temperature anomaly as “very extreme”.

“October has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated,” she said.

“We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43C above the pre-industrial average.”

It puts further pressure on world leaders to get an ambitious outcome at the United Nations climate change conference, COP28, at the end of this month.

“The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher,” Ms Burgess added.

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Globally, the average surface air temperature in October was 1.7C warmer than the same month between 1850 and 1900, defined as the pre-industrial era, before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.

Scientists have warned that permanent global warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels risks unleashing severe climate change effects on people, wildlife and ecosystems.

Signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement have committed to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

However, despite the pledge, global CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2022.

Dr Friederike Otto, climate scientist at Imperial College London, said “what matters” about the record heat is the “people and systems that are suffering”.

Hotter temperatures fuel heavier flooding and more intense heatwaves, and can make storms more powerful.

Read more:
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Why Storm Babet brought so much rain and why we’ll see more

According to experts, continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, combined with the emergence this year of the El Nino weather pattern – which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean – are the two key factors in this year’s higher temperatures.

The current annual record was set in 2016 – another El Nino year.

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said: “Most El Nino years are now record-breakers because the extra global warmth of El Nino adds to the steady ramp of human-caused warming.”

Read more on Sky News:
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Watch The Climate Show With Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3.30pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Qatari PM says Israel ‘killed any hope’ of releasing hostages as criticism over Doha attack intensifies

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Qatari PM says Israel 'killed any hope' of releasing hostages as criticism over Doha attack intensifies

Qatar’s prime minister said Israel has “killed any hope” of seeing more hostages returned from Gaza after carrying out an attack targeting Hamas leadership in his country. 

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani intensified his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Tuesday’s unprecedented strike on Qatar, which killed at least six people.

“I was meeting one of the hostage’s families the morning of the attack,” Sheikh Mohammed told CNN in an interview aired late Wednesday.

“They are counting on this [ceasefire] mediation, they have no other hope for that.”

Sheikh Mohammed added that he thought Netanyahu had “just killed any hope for those hostages”.

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Ceasefire talks left in ‘tatters’

A total of 48 Israeli hostages captured during Hamas’ 7 October attacks on southern Israel have not been returned home.

With its attack in Qatar, Israel had sought to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas.

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Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.

The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been mediating negotiations to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.

US President Donald Trump reportedly held a heated phone call with Mr Netanyahu after the attack, telling him his decision to target Hamas leadership in Qatar was not wise, according to The Wall Street Journal.

There has been no immediate acknowledgement of the remarks from Mr Netanyahu, however, he’s continued to defend the strikes and threatened further action against Qatar.

“I say to Qatar and all nations who harbour terrorists, you either expel them or you bring them to justice,” Mr Netanyahu said. “Because if you don’t, we will.”

Read more:
Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line with Qatar strike
Trump has ‘heated call’ with Netanyahu over Qatar strike

A senior figure in the Qatari government, Dr Majed Al-Ansari, was the one to announce to the world on X that America’s call to alert them to the attack came 10 minutes after the first explosion sounded in Doha.

Dr Al-Ansari, who serves as Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, recounted the moment of the attack to Sky News’ correspondent Sally Lockwood.

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“I was coming home to my family and the moment I stepped out of the car I started hearing the loud noises that can only be compared to bombs,” he said.

“Being a diplomat and working for the foreign ministry throughout the mediation that we have conducted, I immediately knew that that meant that something terrible has happened.

“I can’t tell you enough how as a father living here in Qatar, that moment was a moment of reckoning for me and for all my countrymen and people who reside here in Qatar, where our lives were at risk because of the narcissistic and personal ambitions of a political operator who wants to throw the whole region into chaos.”

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Trump has ‘heated phone call’ with Netanyahu over strike targeting Hamas in Qatar

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Trump has 'heated phone call' with Netanyahu over strike targeting Hamas in Qatar

Donald Trump had a heated phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his military targeted Hamas inside Qatar, according to a report.

The American president told Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday that the decision to strike inside the US ally’s territory was not wise, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior administration officials.

The Israeli prime minister responded by saying he had a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity, according to the newspaper.

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Anger over Israeli strikes on Qatar

A second call between the two leaders later that day was cordial, with Mr Trump asking Mr Netanyahu if the attack had been successful, the publication added.

Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas with the attack in the Qatari capital Doha on Tuesday.

Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.

The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been hosting and mediating in negotiations which are trying to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.

On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu warned Qatar to either expel Hamas officials or “bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will”.

Qatar has hit back at him, saying his comments about the Gulf nation hosting a Hamas office were “reckless”.

Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters

Meanwhile, the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said that if Israel failed to kill Hamas leaders on Tuesday, it would succeed next time.

“We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be… we’re going to pursue them, and we’re going to destroy those who will destroy us,” he said.

The airstrike took place shortly after Hamas claimed responsibility for Monday’s shooting at a bus stop on the outskirts of Jerusalem that killed six people.

Read more:
Analysis: Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line

In another development, Sir Keir Starmer has had talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Downing Street, with Mr Herzog saying they argued during a “tough meeting”.

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PM meets Israeli president

PM condemns Israeli action

The prime minister has condemned the Israeli attack in Qatar, and raised the matter with the president, saying it was “completely unacceptable”.

“He said the strikes were a flagrant violation of a key partner’s sovereignty and do nothing to secure the peace we all desperately want to see,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

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Israel has been angered by Britain’s plans to join several other Western countries, including France and Canada, in recognising a Palestinian state later this month – unless Israel meets conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza.

“Things were said that were tough and strong, and clearly we can argue, because when allies meet, they can argue. We are both democracies,” Mr Herzog said at an event at Chatham House.

He also proposed offering a “fact-finding mission” to Israel, “sitting with us and studying the situation in Gaza on the humanitarian level”.

“Because we have full answers, and we are fully transparent,” he said.

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Drones and salami: How Putin is testing the West with Poland airspace violation

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Drones and salami: How Putin is testing the West with Poland airspace violation

The unprecedented Russian drone attacks on Poland are both a test and a warning.  How Europe and NATO respond could be crucial to security on this continent.

The Russians are past masters at what’s called “salami slicing”. Tactics that use a series of smaller actions to produce a much bigger outcome that otherwise would have been far more provocative.

The Kremlin is probing the West with gradual but steady escalation. A British Council building and an EU installation are bombed in Kyiv; a senior EU official’s plane’s GPS is jammed.

On their own each provocation produces nothing more than rhetoric from the West – but new lines are crossed and Russia is emboldened.

Ukraine war latest: NATO chief sends message to Putin

Vladimir Putin has a history of testing the West. Pic: Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters
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Vladimir Putin has a history of testing the West. Pic: Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters

Putin is good at this.

He used salami slicing tactics masterfully in 2014 with his “little green men” invasion of Crimea, a range of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The West’s confused delay in responding sealed Crimea’s fate.

He has just taken a larger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland.

A drone found in a field in Mniszkow, eastern Poland
Image:
A drone found in a field in Mniszkow, eastern Poland


They are of course a test of NATO’s readiness to deploy its Article 5 obligations. Russia has attacked a member state, allies believe deliberately.

Will NATO trigger the all for one, one for all mechanism in Poland’s defence and attack Russia? Not very likely.

But failing to respond projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plot the next one.

Expect lots of talk of sanctions but remember they failed to avert this invasion and have failed to persuade Russia to reverse it. The only sanctions likely to bite are the ones the US president refuses to approve, on Russia’s oil trade.

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Russia’s Poland incursion represents ‘new chapter’ in Ukraine war, expert says

So how are the drones also a warning? Well, they pose a question.

Vladimir Putin is asking the West if it really wants to become more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering putting boots on the ground inside Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.

If this latest attack is awkward and complicated and hard to respond to now, what happens if Russia uses hybrid tactics then?

Deniable, ambiguous methods that the Russians excel in could make life very difficult for the alliance if it is embroiled in Ukraine.

Think twice before committing your troops there, Russia is warning the West.

Read more:
The pivotal question for NATO
Trump ready to move to second stage of Russia sanctions

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There is more Europe could do.

It could stop buying Russian energy, which it is still astonishingly importing – more than 20 billion euros a year at the last count.

It could use its massive economic advantage (20 times that of Russia’s, and that was before the war) to do more to fund Ukraine’s defence.

While it continues to do neither, expect more excruciating slices of the salami to come.

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