With the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s first window opening up for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, analysts have noted that even if the SEC approves a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), it will be a month before the actual launch.
The expected delay in launch following a potential SEC approval would be due to the two-step process of launching an ETF. For an issuer to start a Bitcoin ETF, it must get SEC approval from the Trading and Markets division on its 19b-4 filing and the Corporate Finance division on the S-1 filing or prospectus.
The main focus of the Corporate Finance division includes fund operations details and risk disclosures. To date, of the 12 Bitcoin ETF applications, nine issuers have submitted revised prospectuses showing they have communicated with Corporate Finance. Market analysts believe the Bitcoin ETF launch may get delayed if the SEC approves the 19b-4 approvals before prospectus documents are signed off.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that even if 19b-4 is approved, an S-1 approval could take weeks or months between approval and launch.
What Scott said: There are TWO paths that need to be completed for an ETF launch. Even if 19b-4 is approved, S-1s still need sign off from division of Corp Fin. No sign that’s done yet. Possible and even likely that there could be weeks or even months between approval & launch https://t.co/LZSdutmlT8 pic.twitter.com/7OLj5HjSDy
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
There is an eight-day window for the SEC, starting on Nov. 8 and ending on Nov. 17, to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF. Although market pundits have increased the chances of approval to 90%, they believe approval won’t come until early next year.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
The SEC had earlier extended the deadline for comment on the spot Bitcoin ETF until Nov. 8 for the comment period.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETF hype reignited zest for blockchain games: Yat Siu
The spot Bitcoin ETF race in the U.S. began when the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, filed its application. While Fidelity and a few other asset managers have also filed for spot Bitcoin ETFs, most faced rejections or withdrew their applications.
The 2023–2024 cycle, however, has prompted many market commentators to predict a possible approval for the spot ETF, giving it as high as a 90% chance.
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Despite the ongoing market meltdown on US trade tariffs, executives at major cryptocurrency firms Messari and Sygnum are bullish on institutional Bitcoin adoption later in 2025. Speaking on a panel at Paris Blockchain Week on April 8, Messari CEO Eric Turner and Sygnum Bank co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said they expect a significant shift in the banking sector’s involvement with crypto in the second half of the year. According to the executives, the global banking push into Bitcoin (BTC) services has great potential to happen in the second half of 2025 as regulators embrace crypto, including stablecoins and crypto services by banks. “I think we’re probably looking at a muted Q2, but I’m really excited for Q3 and Q4,” Messari’s Turner said during the panel discussion moderated by Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, forecasting “really interesting” things coming to the crypto market in 2025. While some investors focus on the pro-crypto stance of US President Donald Trump, Turner emphasized that broader regulatory momentum is what matters most. “When you look at the potential of having market structure regulation in the US, stablecoin regulation, and just the fact that across the board, not just President Trump himself, but the SEC and all these regulatory industries are really embracing crypto,” Turner said. Paris Blockchain Week’s panel with Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, Bancor co-founder Eyal Hertzog, Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger, Messari CEO Eric Turner, AWS fintech leader Alex Matsuo and Near chief operating officer Chris Donovan. Source: Cointelegraph Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said international banks with US branches are also poised to enter the market once the legal landscape becomes clearer: “I think it’s a matter of fact that US banks are preparing to be able to offer crypto custody and at least crypto spot trading services anytime soon.” “I think by then I would agree with you, Eric,” he continued, projecting a continued phase of market uncertainty until the US establishes a clear regulatory framework. Related: Ripple acquires crypto-friendly prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25B With the establishment of clear crypto rules for banks in the US, there will be a rush for crypto services by large international banks that are incorporated outside of the US but have a US-based presence, Eichenberger said. “Some of them may have had their strategic plans in their cupboard to offer crypto-related services, but have been afraid that at some point they will be gone after by any of the US regulatory authorities,” he said, adding: “Now I think there’s no one to be afraid of anymore in terms of regulatory authorities worldwide. So I think many of the large international banks will launch this year.” Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again
Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides. Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9. However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor. “In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding: “That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.” Source: Raoul Pal “Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said. Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term. In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy. China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian. As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets. Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted. Related: Crypto market bottom likely by June despite tariff fears: Finance Redefined Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen. “We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding: “Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.” Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29
A Nigerian court has reportedly delayed the country’s tax evasion case against Binance until April 30 to give time for Nigeria’s tax authority to respond to a request from the crypto exchange. Reuters reported on April 7 that a lawyer for Binance, Chukwuka Ikwuazom, asked a court the same day to invalidate an order allowing for court documents to be served to the company via email. Binance doesn’t have an office in Nigeria and Ikwuazom claimed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) didn’t get court permission to serve court documents to Binance outside the country. “On the whole the order for the substituted service as granted by the court on February 11, 2025 on Binance who is … registered under the laws of Cayman Islands and resident in Cayman Islands is improper and should be set aside,” he said. FIRS sued Binance in February, claiming the exchange owed $2 billion in back taxes and should be made to pay $79.5 billion for damages to the local economy as its its operations allegedly destabilized the country’s currency, the naira, which Binance denies. It also reportedly alleged that Binance is liable to pay corporate income tax in Nigeria, as it has a “significant economic presence” there, with FIRS requesting a court order for the exchange to pay income taxes for 2022 and 2023, plus a 10% annual penalty on unpaid amounts along with a nearly a 27% interest rate on the unpaid taxes. In February 2024, Nigeria arrested and detained Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla on tax fraud and money laundering charges. The country dropped the tax charges against both in June and the remaining charge against Gambaryan in October. Tigran Gambaryan (right) was seen in a September video struggling to walk into a courtroom in the Nigerian capital of Abuja. Source: X Anjarwalla managed to slip his guards and escape Nigerian custody to Kenya in March last year and is apparently still at large. Related: Binance exec shares details about release from Nigerian detention Gambaryan, a US citizen, returned home in October after reports suggested his health had deteriorated during his detainment with reported cases of pneumonia, malaria and a herniated spinal disc that may need surgery. Binance stopped its naira currency deposits and withdrawals in March 2024, effectively leaving the Nigerian market. Magazine: Trash collectors in Africa earn crypto to support families with ReFi
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