China returns to deflation as economy faces challenges on many fronts
Official figures in China have shown a return to deflation as the world’s second largest economy battles a series of challenges .
The National Bureau of Statistics, which had said in August that there would be “no deflation in the future” after a brief slip the previous month, said the main consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation stood at -0.2% in October.
It meant that prices in China were 0.2% down on the same month last year.
Separate data on factory gate prices, which are an important measure of inflation ahead, showed a 2.6% decline.
It has been in negative territory now for more than a year.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as food and fuel, also fell back further towards parity at 0.6% compared to the 0.8% figure revealed for September. It suggests that downward pressure on prices is intensifying.
The headline CPI figure was dragged down by a further slump in pork prices of just over 30%.
An oversupply of pigs and weaker demand among consumers generally drove the slump, the data showed.
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From September: Is money running out in China?
On the face of it, falling prices will be welcome for the Chinese people.
While the West is battling a cost of living crisis we have every reason to feel somewhat jealous.
But falling prices have a sting in the tail for economic and business activity and there will be consequences ahead, according to experts.
The Chinese economy has largely struggled to get back in full gear since authorities delayed calling an end to COVID restrictions.
Domestically, there is high debt and unemployment – particularly among young people.
Consumption, production and investment have all slowed as confidence has been eroded.
The latter has been damaged by a property crisis, with many real estate developers facing massive debt piles to the extent that some high-profile names, such as China Evergrande, are teetering on the brink – with many executives suspected of being to blame.
China’s powerhouse manufacturing sector is facing a collapse in demand, both at home and abroad, as Western economies slow due largely to inflation and central bank action to tame it, which has raised borrowing costs.
Nevertheless, the ratings agency Moody’s still expects China’s economy to grow in line with Beijing’s target rate of 5% this year, declining to around 4% in 2024.
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Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle, told the Reuters news agency: “The data shows combating persistent disinflation amid weak demand remains a challenge for Chinese policymakers.
“An appropriate policy mix and more supportive measures are needed to prevent the economy from a downward drift in inflation expectations that could threaten business confidence and household spending.”
The government’s aid to date has included the raising of £112bn from a sovereign bond sale while it has also relaxed restrictions on what regions are allowed to borrow.
Business
Energy bills to rise again from January but spring falls to come, research firm Cornwall Insight forecasts
Energy bills are to rise again next year, according to a respected forecaster.
Costs from January to March are projected to rise another 1% to £1,736 a year for the average user, according to research firm Cornwall Insight.
The energy price cap, which sets a limit on how much companies can charge per unit of electricity, is also expected to rise, costing typical households an extra £19 a year.
It’s a further increase after energy costs rose 10% from October.
After the latest hike, there were hopes of a fall in the new year, but volatile wholesale gas and electricity markets are still above historic average costs.
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Prices have gone up due to supply concerns arising from Russia‘s war in Ukraine, and maintenance of Norwegian gas infrastructure.
But spring is expected to herald a reduction as is October 2025, Cornwall Insight said.
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‘Energy prices make me depressed’, pensioner Roy Roots said in August
Every three months energy regulator Ofgem revises the cap based on wholesale costs.
The official January price cap announcement will be made on Friday.
It comes as millions of pensioners lost their automatic winter fuel allowance payment after the government means-tested the benefit.
Meanwhile, Cornwall Insight’s principal consultant Dr Craig Lowrey warned “millions” of households won’t heat their homes to “recommended temperatures, risking serious health consequences” with bills on the rise.
“With it being widely accepted that high prices are here to stay, we need to see action,” he said, suggesting options like cheaper rates for low-income homes, benefit restructuring, or other targeted support for the vulnerable “must be seriously considered”.
The energy price cap system is being reviewed by Ofgem with possible changes to the standing charge coming over the next year.
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The long-lasting solution to high energy bills is the transition to UK-produced renewable power, the firm said.
“While there will be upfront costs, this shift is essential to building a sustainable and secure energy system for the future.”
The owners of Scotland’s only oil refinery have rejected a US-led approach about a possible bid for it months before its scheduled closure.
Sky News has learnt that a consortium said to be led by Robert McKee, an American energy industry veteran, wrote to Petroineos, the owner of the Grangemouth site, to express an interest in buying it.
The approach, which is understood to have been made earlier this month, was rejected by Petroineos, which is 50%-owned by the petrochemicals empire founded by the Manchester United FC shareholder Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
The consortium is understood to comprise The Canal Group, which is reportedly developing a green energy refinery in Texas, and Trading Stack, a Middle East-based commodities trader.
Mr McKee spent nearly four decades with ConocoPhillips, one of the biggest energy companies in the US.
Sources close to the situation said that Petroineos had rebuffed the offer in order to concentrate on a publicly announced plan to transform the century-old plant into a finished fuels import terminal.
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They added that the nature of the consortium’s approach had raised questions about its access to financing and expertise in operating an asset of this kind.
The Grangemouth refinery, which employs about 450 people, loses about £200m annually.
Its other shareholder is the state-backed Chinese energy giant PetroChina.
The site is due to close next year.
A person close to the consortium insisted that its financing was robust and said it would assess the feasibility of building a new refinery elsewhere in the area.
They added that the consortium had had “positive interactions” with trade union officials, and believed that there was scope to rapidly make Grangemouth’s refinery operations profitable.
On Monday, a spokesman for Petroineos said: “Since the Petroineos joint venture was formed 13 years ago, our shareholders have invested nearly £1bn in the refinery, only to absorb losses of £600m.
“Last week, the refinery lost £385,000 on average each day and we expect to lose more than £150m in total during the course of this year.
“We have not received any credible or viable bids for the refinery.”
A spokesman for the consortium declined to comment.
Cineworld’s hedge fund backers are drawing up plans to return the cinema operator to the public markets amid continuing uncertainty about the future of dozens of its British sites.
Sky News has learnt that the company’s owners are at the early stages of considering a New York listing for the business, with the first half of 2026 considered a likely window for it to take place.
City insiders said that a flotation was likely to encompass Cineworld’s operations outside the UK, with the group’s board expected to consider a sale of the British operations at some point.
They cautioned, however, that no decisions had been reached and would not be for some time.
The fate of Cineworld’s business in the UK has been mired in uncertainty for months, with the company initially exploring a sale of it before turning to a restructuring plan which compromises many of its landlords and other creditors.
It has announced the permanent closure of six sites, but it emerged last month that nearly 20 more were at risk of being shut amid ongoing talks with property owners.
The restructuring plan is due to complete later this month, which some landlords have opposed over the fairness of its terms.
Documents circulated as part of the restructuring plan process highlighted the fact that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.
“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis,” they said.
Other cinema operators, such as Odeon, are now poised to step in to take over small numbers of Cineworld’s other sites.
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The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.
Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.
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Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.
It delisted from the London Stock Exchange in August 2023, having seen its share price collapse.
In addition to the UK, Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.
Cineworld has been contacted for comment.
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