Dear Michigan, embrace being the villain. It’s more fun for everyone that way
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Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior Writer
There has to be a bad guy.
All right, that’s not true. There doesn’t have to be a bad guy. There is no rule that states the necessity of a heel. No statute that specifies the presence of a widely despised, shadowy, black-hatted figure who dominates the mood of the room. No understood agreement requiring the existence of someone or something toward whom a large percentage of an audience can hurl a chorus of boos.
But, man, the world sure is a lot more fun when there is one. Darth Vader, Thanos, The Joker, Norman Bates, the Wicked Witch of the West, that wizard with no nose whose name Harry Potter wasn’t supposed to say aloud, and now, the 2023 Michigan Wolverines.
“I know there’s a lot of noise going on the outside of the building,” Wolverines offensive lineman Zak Zinter said on Monday. “Haven’t really paid too, too much attention to it. But I mean if someone thinks we’re the villain, I mean, I’m fine being the villain.
“You know, sometimes the villain wins and takes down the superhero. So, if that’s got to be the case, let’s be the villain and let’s take them down. I’m fine with being the villain if that’s how the media and everyone else sees it outside the building.”
Good thing. Because to those outside of Ann Arbor, that’s what they have become. Thanks to an ongoing investigation into whether or not a (now former) Michigan staffer blatantly broke a bunch of rules, statutes and understood agreements that college football teams aren’t supposed to do any in-person scouting of opponents. Given that in the grand scheme of college football scandals, this is relatively harmless (and extremely funny), the Wolverines should welcome the hate from rivals and embrace their new role as villains.
For anyone who’s been asleep the last few weeks, Connor Stalions resigned from his position as an analyst late last week after being accused of paying people to attend games featuring Michigan football foes to record and decode their signals from the stands. Video has even surfaced of someone appearing to be Stalions himself on the sideline at Central Michigan, hiding in plain sight in what appears to be a costume he purchased at a Spirit Halloween store in a plastic bag labeled “D.B. Cooper Sports Coach.”
I want Oliver Stone to do a Michigan movie. These clandestine Stalions images remind me of the photos that may or may not have been Lee Harvey Oswald. Was that him in Cuba? Is that a photo of him in Moscow? Was that him on the sideline at Central Michigan watching #MACtion?! pic.twitter.com/iZDLePhnqC
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) November 6, 2023
On the surface, being pushed into that antihero life would seem to be a drag. A distraction. Something that can take you away from your ultimate goals. Like beating Penn State this weekend and then trying to earn a third straight Big Ten title and College Football Playoff berth.
But there are also benefits to leaning into one’s role as the rascal. Any actor who has ever portrayed the villain will tell you it’s a lot more fun than being the hero. (Except Wicked Witch actress Margaret Hamilton, who said it broke her heart that kids ran away from her the rest of her life.)
“It’s cliche to say, but bad guys have more fun. You can get away with more,” Denzel Washington explained in 2020, the 20th anniversary of his turn as a still-beloved head coach in Remember the Titans, but 19th anniversary of his Oscar-winning portrayal as a horrifyingly evil police officer in Training Day. “In playing a real character who’s heroic, you’re kind of stuck because there’s only so much you can get away with. But the bad guy, that dude can say and do anything. As an actor, we love that.”
It’s the same for most athletes. Think about Terrell Owens with his arms held toward the sky atop the Dallas Cowboys star. Think about the Detroit Pistons Bad Boys throwing eight elbows simultaneously into Michael Jordan’s face. The Fab Five. The U. Deion Sanders during his OG Prime Time days at Florida State. Tom Brady and his three post-Deflategate Vince Lombardi Trophies. Most recently, the Houston Astros banging on garbage cans to transmit stolen signals with the very same hands that at season’s end were fashioned with World Series rings.
Did they look miserable to you?
It was Dale Earnhardt, aka The Man In Black, who famously said, “I don’t care if fans are cheering or booing, as long as they’re making noise.”
That sentiment of actors and athletes is shared even by the actors who play athletes. Just ask Ric Flair. The Nature Boy, the self-described “dirtiest player in the game” has spent a lifetime in the ring making people angry and has “Woo!’d” all the way to the bank. On Monday, he “Woo!’d” his way into Schembechler Hall to see an old pal, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh, and perhaps give a lesson or two to the Wolverines on living life on the dark side.
Harbaugh said of the visit: “Big-game atmosphere in Schembechler Hall. A ton of enthusiasm and excitement, and my energy level was already sky high…and that just brought the enthusiasm to a new level.”
It isn’t fair the kids on the Michigan roster have to atone for the accused sins of the grown adults who were hired to coach and lead them. Even Harbaugh admitted that this week, saying, “Nobody wants criticism. That’s why I work so hard to do everything right, both on and off the field. Because it’s been that way for a long time, since I was 22 years old. But if the criticism is directed to me and not my adolescent kids or the players on the football team, then I’m OK with it.”
But these are also the maize-and-blue cards they have been handed. Players who, like anyone their age, have their faces in their phones around the clock, flicking through their social media feeds. Since the Michigan story broke last month, those timelines have been filled with images of Stalions at CMU and pics of so many people who went out on Halloween night dressed as Michigan’s khaki-slacked head coach, complete with giant binoculars around their necks.
Happy Halloween from Tennessee! ?
Jim Harbaugh & A Michigan Cheerleader! GO BLUE 〽️@NateLewis77 you mind sharing this brother, would love to see this across Michigan Twitter pic.twitter.com/iSSdAJMDPK
— Daniel (DT) Troutman (@BigDaddyD_55) November 1, 2023
The unavoidable legal wrestling between Michigan and the Big Ten as the conference’s look into disciplinary action will certainly be another pain in everyone’s collective Big House lives. But if the NCAA moves at its usual pace — think a Big Ten offense circa 1965 (or a certain one in Iowa City circa 2023) — then it will be long after many of this year’s roster has moved on before any real retroactive punishment rolls out from the halls of Indianapolis.
In the meantime, the scandal will continue to be the embodiment of what we love about this sport. Past the games and the marching bands, college football is built on pettiness. The rival you have hated since the day you were born — and that your grandparents and parents despised long before you were born. Whenever they might possibly be up to something unscrupulous, true or untrue, you are obligated by your very DNA to tell the world that you had been right about those mangy, cheating, no-good so-and-so’s all along.
And in turn, they must say the same about you and immediately remind everyone of that time you did that thing that wasn’t exactly on the up-and-up because, hey, that’s the only way you could have beaten them in that one game that one time that everyone still talks about. (See: “Well, everyone’s doing it and we know they not only stole our signs but they all shared them, too!”)
If Connor Stalions did what he has been accused of, then he and Michigan will be punished. And they should be. But this also isn’t a crime. It isn’t even a betting scandal or rampant recruiting violations with bags of cash being passed around. No one here has been hurt or even arrested.
In a weird way, it’s actually a bit refreshing. A genuine on-field football controversy that has also become a deliciously stupid game of gloved finger pointing. Cheating is bad. That we can all agree on. And in the end, the truth will be revealed, and the official comeuppance, whatever form that takes, will be handed down from above. But that’s going to take a while.
Between now and whenever that might be, everyone dressed in blue can’t do anything but play football games and wait. So, why waste that time fighting the outside world when you could be standing on the sideline spot where Stalions is no longer allowed, from Ann Arbor all the way into the postseason, arms outstretched like the baddies you now are and bellowing, “BWAHAHAHAHA!”
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Bill Connelly
How do you take a typical big October Saturday and make it even better? By making every big game a toss-up.
Week 8 of the college football season gives us four ranked-versus-ranked battles — an enormous SEC tripleheader and Notre Dame-USC. My SP+ ratings project all four games to finish within 3.1 points. Then, there’s the Holy War (BYU-Utah), too. All in all, there are 60 FBS games this weekend, and 32 are projected within one score. We should get at least a couple of classics among the big games, and the thing that separates college football Saturdays from anything else — sheer depth of action — should be on overwhelming display.
There are stakes, too! The SEC race is a giant, puddly mess and should achieve only so much clarity Saturday. Notre Dame-USC could be a College Football Playoff eliminator of sorts (and, oh yeah, it might be the last Notre Dame-USC game for a while). The Big 12 and ACC each have a couple of huge, title-related games, and we’ve got hierarchy-establishing battles in the Sun Belt and Mountain West.
It’s a lot! Let’s make some sense of it! Here’s everything you need to follow in a blood pressure-unfriendly Week 8.
All times are ET and are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
The SEC tripleheader of Greg Sankey’s dreams
The SEC has no team in the current SP+ top four, but it has eight of the next nine and 10 of the top 19. The conference title race and the race for playoff spots are up for grabs, especially if Alabama stops producing loads of close-game magic.
On Saturday, the league gets the tripleheader of its dreams: Three ranked-versus-ranked battles, all relative toss-ups. The results could establish a bit of a hierarchy within the conference, or they could make things even messier. (As always, I root for the latter.)
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Last year, Georgia muscled its way to the SEC title, boasting less upside than we’re used to seeing but grinding out victories. But the Dawgs’ high floor was no match for Ole Miss’ high ceiling: The Rebels dominated the line of scrimmage and posted a shockingly easy 28-10 win; it was Georgia’s worst loss since 2019.
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Highlight: No. 16 Rebels keep playoff hopes alive with win vs. No. 3 Georgia
Ole Miss wins the turnover battle, highlighted by stripping the ball from the Bulldogs in the final minutes to solidify a 28-10 win and stay relevant for the College Football Playoff.
If Georgia starts slowly again, Ole Miss might lay down the hammer again. UGA trailed Auburn by 10 points in the first quarter, Alabama by 14 in the second and Tennessee by 14 in the first. That Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs fought back to win two of those three is another reminder that Kirby Smart teams will always be tough as hell. But they lost to Bama, and they might not be able to afford more than one additional defeat. At some point, they have to play well.
Ole Miss messed around last week, stumbling through early miscues and needing a late stop to beat Washington State 24-21. Maybe the Rebels were looking ahead to UGA? This is a pretty big game, and not only because the Rebels haven’t won in Athens since 1996. They’re one of only two remaining unbeatens in the parity-soaked SEC, and a win here would put them in excellent position to reach their first SEC championship game.
Georgia holds the advantages on the ground, while Ole Miss controls the air.
When Georgia has the ball
Yards per carry (not inc. sacks): Georgia offense 79th, Ole Miss defense 106th
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss defense 36th, Georgia offense 59th
When Ole Miss has the ball
Yards per carry: Georgia defense sixth, Ole Miss offense 63rd
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss offense fifth, Georgia defense 64th
Georgia should exploit Ole Miss’ shoddy run defense, but the Rebels could counter that with a big passing advantage. Trinidad Chambliss distributes the ball well to five or six receivers, and even after playing against Auburn’s destitute passing game, Georgia still ranks 117th in sack rate. Chambliss will likely have time to find open guys.
Current line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 1.8 | FPI projection: UGA by 5.3
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
One of my go-to measures is postgame win expectancy. It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that feeds into SP+ — and says, “With these stats, Team A would have won this game X% of the time.” It’s a good way of measuring if a team is winning in a sustainable way or if good fortune is involved.
In wins over both Georgia and Missouri, Alabama’s postgame win expectancy was under 30%. The Crimson Tide handily lost the explosiveness battle against UGA and was both less efficient and less explosive than Mizzou, but won both games with the right combination of clutch-play success. That’s tough to sustain over a long season, though Kalen DeBoer’s 2023 Washington team did just that while reaching the national title game. If you have the right quarterback play and close-game execution, you can pull one over on the stat gods for a little while. The stat gods always get their comeuppance — as in 2024, when DeBoer’s Bama looked like an 11-win team on paper but went 9-4 — but you can ride it out for a bit.
The close games probably aren’t going to stop. Of Bama’s next six games, five are projected within 8.1 points. The Tide will require a lot more of what we saw against Missouri, when Ty Simpson didn’t produce dazzling stats (23 completions for 200 yards with four sacks) but completed some brilliant passes on third- and fourth-and-long.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers: Full Highlights
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers: Full Highlights
Simpson has gotten help from running back Jam Miller of late, though he is questionable for Saturday (concussion protocol). The defense got carved up on a couple of drives but controlled Mizzou for a large run in the middle of the game.
Tennessee is in pretty good shape, playoff-wise; the 5-1 Vols are projected favorites in each game after this. But their defense, so excellent last year, ranks just 78th in points allowed per drive. Luckily for the Vols, they’re 12th on offense. They are efficient via run and pass, and RB DeSean Bishop and WRs Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews are big-play machines. But if Simpson made key passes against Georgia’s and Mizzou’s defenses, it’s pretty hard to see Tennessee stopping the Tide when it counts.
Current line: Bama -7.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.1
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (noon, ABC)
LSU’s defense, problematic for years, has allowed more than 10 points just once, combining great pass coverage with great ball pursuit and allowing the 5-1 Tigers to mostly overcome their worst offense of the Brian Kelly era. Vandy, meanwhile, won its first five games by an average of 32 points before red zone turnovers spoiled an upset bid against Bama. The Commodores’ defense is unexceptional, but the offense ranks second nationally in success rate. Quarterback Diego Pavia keeps the offense moving (and grinds out some hard rushing yards), while running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Close games will determine the SEC’s CFP bids; five of Vandy’s last six games are projected within 6.5 points, per SP+, and four of LSU’s last six are within 4.5. The loser of this one will likely have spent its final mulligan and will have to win a lot of coin-flip games to stay in the hunt.
Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.4 | FPI projection: Vandy by 2.7
For the Jeweled Shillelagh (and playoff hopes)
No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC)
I’m struggling to get past the idea that we might lose Notre Dame-USC, at least for a little while, for embarrassingly silly reasons. Just in case sanity doesn’t prevail, we deserve a barn burner Saturday night.
In a rivalry based on long-term momentum swings, Notre Dame has held the advantage for most of the past 15 years, but this one appears relatively even on paper. Since losing its first two games by a combined four points — both to current top-five teams (Miami and Texas A&M) — Notre Dame has won four games by an average of 30. The defense had big-play issues early on but has allowed 27 total points in the past three weeks and should keep improving now that corner Leonard Moore is healthy again.
Quarterback CJ Carr has been absolutely dynamite. Despite being a redshirt freshman, and despite substandard performance from the offensive line — which has allowed quite a few negative run plays and merely average pressure numbers — he’s 11th in Total QBR. On third-and-7 or more, Notre Dame ranks second nationally with a 44% conversion rate. Carr’s ceiling is spectacularly high.
Of course, USC’s Jayden Maiava ranks first in Total QBR. He’s completing 72% of his passes at 15.1 yards per completion. That’s quite the high-end combination.
Maiava has done plenty of damage against bad defenses, but the Trojans topped 30 points against Illinois and Michigan, too. It helps to have a run game you can lean on, and USC’s might be the most underrated in the country. Backs Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders and King Miller have combined to average 191.7 yards per game and 7.0 per carry. Jordan and Sanders got hurt against Michigan — they’re both likely out Saturday — so Miller, a walk-on redshirt freshman, went for 158 yards. That says great things about the O-line, especially considering it has been battling some injuries.
That leaves the USC defense. A consistent liability in Lincoln Riley’s nine years as a head coach, the Trojans have been mostly solid this year, but they got beat for some long passes against Michigan State and Illinois. That will probably happen Saturday, too, but if they can hold the Irish to 31 points or so, Maiava & Co. could top that.
Current line: Irish -9.5 (up from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 3.1 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.1
This week in the Big 12
There’s nothing I enjoy more than a nice, silly Big 12 title race, and Texas Tech’s current dominance levels suggest at least half of the Big 12 championship game matchup is as good as settled. That could change, obviously, but when you lose your quarterback to injury twice in three games and extend your lead by 20-plus points in both games, you’re proving something. We’ll see if the Red Raiders can keep proving something against the defending conference champs.
Regardless of Tech’s dominance, there are two spots available in Jerry World, and the fight for the other spot (at least) is up for grabs. The winner of Saturday night’s Holy War in Provo, Utah, will become the favorite to land that one.
No. 7 Texas Tech at Arizona State (4 p.m., Fox)
Arizona State was hit-and-miss early last season, then lost a game with quarterback Sam Leavitt injured. That summarizes this season as well. Leavitt should return after missing last week’s loss to Utah, and if the Sun Devils hit the gas like last year, everything’s still on the table.
Last week was pretty demoralizing, though. Leavitt’s presence wouldn’t have done much to stop Utah from scoring touchdowns on six of seven possessions. The Sun Devils rank 71st in points per drive and 94th in points allowed; they simply might not have enough to offer.
A few weeks ago, Texas Tech pushed around Utah just like the Utes did to ASU. Even if quarterback Behren Morton (questionable) can’t go, Will Hammond has played well — he isn’t as consistent a passer, but he offers far more with his legs. And either way, ASU still has to score on a defense ranked fifth in points allowed per drive and featuring two of the best defenders in college football (linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey).
Current line: Tech -7.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.3
No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU (8 p.m., Fox)
Utah has responded as well as possible to the blowout loss to Tech. Outmuscled at the line of scrimmage by the Red Raiders, the Utes have done all the pushing since, walloping West Virginia and Arizona State by a combined 90-24. They aren’t creating many big plays — an issue for years — but quarterback Devon Dampier & Co. are second in rushing success rate and eighth in passing success rate. BYU’s defense also is pretty efficient, though the Cougars have allowed an increasing point total in every game this season. At some point, that becomes an obvious problem, but this is the second-best defense Utah has faced.
Of course, Utah’s defense is by far the best Bear Bachmeier has faced. The unbeaten BYU freshman quarterback came through with his legs in last week’s comeback win over Arizona, but he also went 12-for-29 passing with two interceptions. Utah’s defense is awesome at the front (where end John Henry Daley is a breakout star) and back (where the Utes rank sixth in completion rate allowed).
Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 0.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 0.3
The ACC title race takes shape, too
As with Texas Tech in the Big 12, Miami’s fast start has established a clear front-runner in the ACC title race. But two teams will make the ACC championship game, and five are unbeaten early in ACC play (Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and SMU). They’re among six teams, along with Louisville, who have at least a 7% chance at the conference title, per SP+.
Conveniently, four of those six teams are playing head-to-head this weekend.
Louisville at No. 2 Miami (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Louisville is 4-1 and a projected favorite in six of its last seven games. The Cardinals appear likely to post at least nine wins for the third straight time under Jeff Brohm. The defense has been excellent, and running back Isaac Brown remains one of the most explosive in college football.
The Cardinals still feel pretty disappointing this season, though, at least on offense. Brown and Duke Watson have been slowed because of injuries, and quarterback Miller Moss struggled on several dropbacks in their loss to Virginia. The offensive line is allowing loads of negative plays. All’s forgiven if they win Friday night, but they’ll have to raise their game.
This is about where things went awry for a fast-starting Miami team in 2024, but with Rueben Bain Jr. and Mohamed Toure anchoring a far more stable defense and the offensive line living up to hype, the Hurricanes don’t seem interested in allowing that to happen again. Granted, the offense hasn’t been quite as effective as it has gotten credit for, mainly due to a lack of explosiveness — they’re 13th in success rate but just 126th in yards per successful play. Carson Beck hasn’t been amazing on third downs either, and if Louisville can knock the Hurricanes off schedule, the Cardinals’ dynamite pass rush could impact the game. But Louisville will still need to steer out of the mud and start scoring points.
Current line: Miami -13.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 7.9 | FPI projection: Miami by 12.4
No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke (noon, ESPN)
In Duke’s first big home game of 2025, the Blue Devils suffered five turnovers against Illinois in a 45-19 loss. They won a majority of the game’s plays but were on the wrong end of all the catastrophes. (They seemed to let that loss beat them the next week, too, falling behind 24-3 to Tulane before losing by seven.)
Now comes another big home game. The Blue Devils have won their first three conference games by an average of 43-19, and Darian Mensah, responsible for three of those five Illinois turnovers, has been increasingly dominant.
Georgia Tech has drifted a bit in the other direction. The Yellow Jackets remain unbeaten, but after early wins over Colorado and Clemson, they’ve underachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games. They can still run the heck out of the ball with QB Haynes King and RBs Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley, but they are struggling to knock opponents off schedule and rush the passer. Duke can defend the run and stay on schedule beautifully.
Current line: Duke -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.3 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.9
A pair of elimination games (of sorts) in the Group of 5
Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, five Group of 5 teams have at least a 5% chance of reaching the CFP: Memphis (43%), USF (30%), Tulane (11%), UNLV (8%) and Boise State (6%). Memphis and USF have easier games that were relegated to the Playlist below, but BSU and UNLV face off, and a maddening Tulane takes on an Army team capable of just about anything.
UNLV at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
Since the start of 2023, UNLV is 26-8 — 0-3 against Boise State and 26-5 against everyone else. Is this the year the Rebels finally clear the Boise hurdle?
BSU’s four wins and two losses have come by an average of 24 points. Either it has all worked or it all hasn’t — that’s how things go when your offense is inefficient but explosive and you make sure your opponents are the same. The Broncos make every game a big-play contest.
UNLV is all-or-nothing in a different way: all offense, no defense. The Rebels are averaging more than 38 points per game but allowing nearly 30. They seek turnovers to an almost self-destructive degree and give up 6.3 yards per play. But with quarterback Anthony Colandrea, running back Jai’Den Thomas and receiver Jaden Bradley, they can keep up with anyone in a big-play contest.
Current line: BSU -12.5 (up from -10.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 5.7
Army at Tulane (noon, ESPNU)
“We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games. And I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature. We’ve got to grow up fast.” That’s what Tulane’s Jon Sumrall said after last week’s narrow 26-19 win over East Carolina, and, well, that about summed it up. The Green Wave boast major upside and two power-conference wins, they’ve been inconsistent and have slipped to 64th in SP+. But they’re still 5-1! If they shift into gear, they could easily be in the CFP.
Army lost to Tarleton State and got blown out by ECU but also beat Kansas State and won its past two games by 35 combined points. The Black Knights can’t even slightly pass, but they don’t lose yards and the defense prevents big plays. Can Tulane summon maturity and move to 6-1?
Current line: Tulane -9.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 11.2
Week 8 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And we’re in a funk! The sport has had plenty of chaos, but the superfecta’s gone 0-3 since a 3-1 start.
It’s time to rectify that by taking down a Big Ten favorite. SP+ says there’s only a 32% chance that Maryland (72% win probability over UCLA), Nebraska (74% over Minnesota), Oregon (85% over Rutgers) and Indiana (95% over Michigan State) all win. It’s rally time!
Week 8 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. (Don’t worry, I’m not trying to convince you to watch Iowa-Penn State. Our relationship means too much to me to do that to you.)
Friday evening
No. 25 Nebraska at Minnesota (8 p.m., Fox). Two fun, young QBs — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey — have, with help from top-30 defenses, led their teams to a combined 9-3 record, but Nebraska is looking for more. The Huskers have a 30% chance at a 10-2 finish or better, per SP+; that would be their first such season in ages and would theoretically insert them into the playoff race.
Current line: Nebraska -8.5 (up from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 10.2 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 7.2
North Carolina at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). North Carolina got a bye week to read all those “How it’s all gone wrong for Bill Belichick” stories. This is one of only two remaining games in which they’re not projected as a double-digit underdog. If they can’t get past Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal — also coming off a bye week — they might not get past anyone.
Current line: Cal -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 8.7 | FPI projection: Cal by 7.5
Early Saturday
No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina (12:45 p.m., SECN). OU rushed John Mateer back to action, but he was rusty and overwhelmed against Texas. South Carolina’s defense has stabilized significantly and could offer resistance, but at some point, the Gamecocks’ offense, currently 123rd in points per drive, needs to show up. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers isn’t getting much help, but he’s not helping himself enough, either.
Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 8.8 | FPI projection: OU by 1.1
Washington at Michigan (noon, Fox). I’m still confused by the lack of pollster love for 5-1 Washington. The unranked Huskies got far fewer AP votes than either two-loss Illinois or two-loss Michigan, but they can theoretically rectify that with a win in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines’ offense has no-showed in both losses, but Washington games can turn into track meets pretty easily.
Current line: Michigan -6.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 2.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 4.5
Baylor at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Revivalry is a Last Chance Saloon situation for a TCU team just 1-2 in Big 12 play. It’s probably noteworthy that BU’s Sawyer Robertson and TCU’s Josh Hoover will be passing against defenses that rank 103rd and 101st, respectively, in yards allowed per dropback. This game better have at least 70 combined points. (It did last year.)
Current line: TCU -2.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 3.2
Saturday afternoon
No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Texas A&M has mastered the art of simply sitting on games, leaning heavily on a dynamite offensive line and pass rush and waiting for opponents to fall over. Arkansas just lights every game on fire; the Razorbacks have scored at least 31 points in five games and allowed at least 32 in four straight. They’ve almost beaten three ranked teams now — they’re dangerous, if self-destructive, underdogs.
Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 9.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 5.4
SMU at Clemson (3:30 p.m., ACCN). After terribly disappointing September campaigns, both Clemson and SMU — last year’s ACC championship game competitors — have stabilized with a pair of comfortable ACC wins. Clemson has been a bit more demonstrative, but the Tigers, at 2-2 in the ACC, are playing from behind; with a slight upset, SMU would be 3-0 in ACC play and back in the title conversation.
Current line: Clemson -9.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 3.3
Mississippi State at Florida (4:15 p.m., SECN). Mississippi State got a bye week after its disappointing performance against Texas A&M. Florida acquitted itself slightly better against the Aggies last Saturday, but after that ultra-physical affair, the Gators will have to deal with the ultra-fast MSU attack. Can they get receiver Dallas Wilson, the hero of the Texas game, going again?
Current line: Florida -9.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 2.6 | FPI projection: Florida by 4.4
Old Dominion at James Madison (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). This one was looking like it might be the G5 game of the week, but JMU’s offense underachieved for a second straight game in a narrower-than-expected win over Louisiana, and ODU self-destructed with five turnovers and three turnovers on downs in a huge loss to Marshall. This is still huge for Sun Belt East title purposes, at least.
Current line: JMU -1.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 5.4 | FPI projection: ODU by 0.8
No. 22 Memphis at UAB (4 p.m., ESPN2). Granted, there could be some UCLA-style, nothing-to-lose vibes from a UAB team that just fired coach Trent Dilfer. But that’s the only reason to think this one will be close. Memphis is running the ball brilliantly, and the Tigers’ defense is playing its best ball in more than a decade.
Current line: Memphis -22.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 27.0 | FPI projection: Memphis by 25.7
Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Granted, UCLA went from winless and hopeless to genuinely exciting overnight, so anything’s possible, but the team UCLA smoked last week — Michigan State — is also looking awfully hopeless. The most interesting thing about this one might be how Indiana responds to its greatest week of news clippings ever. Can the Hoosiers remain focused?
Current line: IU -27.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 26.4 | FPI projection: IU 26.9
UTSA at North Texas (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). North Texas let a huge opportunity slip through its fingers last week thanks to a 3½-minute, 28-0 run by USF in a 63-36 loss to the Bulls. Can the Mean Green avoid a hangover and remain in the American Conference race by taking care of an all-or-nothing UTSA and its all-or-nothing run game (Robert Henry Jr. and Will Henderson III: 1,004 yards at 7.3 per carry)?
Current line: UNT -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: UNT by 4.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0
No. 1 Ohio State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., CBS). I can’t believe Wisconsin is making Luke Fickell coach this game before firing him.
Current line: OSU -25.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 25.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 23.4
Saturday evening
No. 16 Missouri at Auburn (7:45 p.m., SECN). Missouri had a golden opportunity to beat Alabama but couldn’t get the job done. If the Tigers rebound well, the CFP is still in play, but they can’t fall victim to Auburn’s nonsense. Hugh Freeze’s Tigers defended well enough to play Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia achingly close but didn’t have the offense to seal the deal. Will they ever?
Current line: Mizzou -1.5 (flipped from Auburn -2.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.7
No. 6 Oregon at Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN). Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is on pace for 3,500 passing yards, and the Scarlet Knights have scored at least 28 points in five of six games. This is an offense capable of leading an upset, but the RU defense is just about Greg Schiano’s worst ever. Think that might hinder them against Dante Moore and the ridiculously efficient Oregon offense?
Current line: Oregon -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 16.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 11.6
No. 21 Texas at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN). Kentucky might be a lost cause at this point — per SP+, the Wildcats’ odds of losing out (4%) aren’t that much lower than their odds of bowling (11%). But they defend the run pretty well and pressure quarterbacks. Either Arch Manning makes good plays against a bad secondary, or Kentucky gets enough stops to make this interesting.
Current line: Texas -12.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 14.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.6
Washington State at No. 18 Virginia (6:30 p.m., The CW). The transfer-driven UVA offense, led by QB Chandler Morris and RB J’Mari Taylor, has scored 30-plus points every week. The Wazzu defense, meanwhile, is confusing: The Cougs have allowed 59 points twice but have allowed 12.5 points per game in their four other games. The Hoos should handle this one, but Wazzu nearly stunned Ole Miss last week.
Current line: UVA -17.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 13.8 | FPI projection: UVA by 18.9
Florida Atlantic at No. 19 USF (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). This should be the fastest game of the week. In terms of seconds per play, USF ranks first and FAU ranks third. USF is faster, but four FAU games have topped 66 combined points. Even if this is an easy win for the Bulls, it should be pretty prolific.
Current line: USF -21.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 17.4 | FPI projection: USF by 19.6
Late Saturday
Florida State at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Florida State’s defense has underachieved for a while now, and the offense has slipped just enough to make that costly. The Noles have lost three games in a row, but while playing at Stanford requires a cross-country trip, it should be a get-right opportunity. The Cardinal’s most likely record right now? 3-9, which was their record the past four seasons.
Current line: FSU -18.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 19.3 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.1
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. (Yes, I’m giving you a week off from the WIAC race in Division III, even though No. 4 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 14 Wisconsin-Platteville should be pretty fantastic. Actually, watch that one too.)
NAIA: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 9 Campbellsville (12:30 p.m., YouTube). Led by prolific rusher Davontaye Saunders, LWU holds the No. 1 ranking in NAIA SP+, but the Blue Raiders should face a stiff test in the Battle of Highway 55. Campbellsville is averaging 43 points per game, and quarterback Jett Engle is willing to go for broke, for better (14.3 yards per completion, 14 TDs) or worse (seven INTs).
SP+ projection: LWU by 9.4
FCS: No. 11 North Dakota at No. 12 Southern Illinois (3 p.m., ESPN+). It’s not exactly a playoff eliminator, but it’s close. UND and SIU are 4-2 with losses only to FBS opponents (Kansas State and Purdue, respectively) and FCS heavyweights (Montana and North Dakota State). SIU dual-threat quarterback DJ Williams has five 200-yard passing games and two 100-yard rushing games, and UND’s relentless run game grinds opponents into dust.
SP+ projection: UND by 2.2
Division II: No. 3 West Florida at No. 8 West Alabama (6 p.m., FloCollege). Unbeaten Gulf South rivals face off in Livingston. UWA has topped 50 points in two straight games and doesn’t mind going full-on track meet with big-play receivers Dearrius Nelson and TD Parker. UWF, however, plays a bit more defense: Linebacker Ja’Kobe Clinton and tackle Kevin Roberts have already combined for 20 TFLs.
SP+ projection: UWF by 8.9
LOS ANGELES — It’s easy to take Shohei Ohtani for granted. By now, we’ve settled into the rote comfort: He is the best player on the planet, and that’s that. Ohtani’s baseline is everyone else’s peak. He is judged against himself and himself only.
And it’s human nature that when we watch something often enough — even something as mind-bending as a player who’s a full-time starting pitcher and full-time hitter and among the very best at both — it starts to register as normal.
Which is why his performances on Friday — the unleashing of the full extent of Ohtani’s magic — was the sort of necessary reminder that one of the greatest athletes in the world, and the most talented baseball player ever, is playing right now, doing unfathomable things, redefining the game in real time. And that even when he starts the day mired in an uncharacteristic slump, Ohtani needs only a single game to launch himself into the annals of history.
Where Ohtani’s performance in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series ranks on the all-time list of games will be debated for years. In the celebration following Los Angeles‘ 5-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, though, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stood on the field and said, “That’s the greatest night in baseball history,” and no one cared to argue.
Over the course of 2 hours, 41 minutes, in front of 52,883 fans, with millions watching domestically and tens of millions more in Japan, Ohtani threw six shutout innings and struck out 10 in between hitting three home runs that traveled a combined 1,342 feet, including one that left Dodger Stadium entirely. It was the sort of game that happens in comic books, not real life — and it was a game that completed a championship series sweep and sent Los Angeles to its second consecutive World Series. It was the kind of night that leaves patrons elated they saw it and also just a little ruined because they know they’ll never see anything like it again. Everyone was a prisoner, captive to perhaps the greatest individual game in the quarter-million or so played over the last century and a half.
It was, at very least, one of the finest displays of baseball since the game’s inception, up there with Tony Cloninger hitting two grand slams and throwing a complete game in 1966 or Rick Wise socking two home runs amid his no-hitter on the mound in 1971. And unlike those, this came in the postseason, and in a game to clinch Los Angeles the opportunity to become the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back championships.
It wasn’t quite Don Larsen throwing a perfect game — but Larsen went 0-for-2 in that game and needed a Mickey Mantle home run to account for his scoring. It wasn’t Reggie Jackson hammering three home runs, either — because Reggie needed Mike Torrez to throw a complete game that night to make his blasts stand up.
Ohtani is the only player who can do this, the offense and the defense — the mastery of baseball, the distillation of talent into something pure and perfect.
Hours earlier, his day had started by navigating the tricky balance of starting and hitting on the same day. His metronomic routine, such a vital piece of his three MVP seasons (the fourth will be made official in mid-November), is upended completely when he pitches. He budgets for the extra time he needs to spend caring for his arm by sacrificing his attendance at the hitters’ meeting, instead getting the intel he needs from coaches in the batting cage about an hour before the game.
Nobody could tell, when Ohtani arrived in the underground cage Friday, that he was mired in a nasty slump that had stretched from the division series through the third game of the NLCS, a jag of strikeouts and soft contact and poor swing decisions and utter frustration that got so bad earlier in the week he had taken batting practice outside at Dodger Stadium, something he never — like, really, never — does. He had decided to do so on the plane ride back from Milwaukee, where the Dodgers had humbled the Brewers with the sort of starting pitching never seen in a league championship series.
Game 4, his teammates were convinced, was going to be a culmination of that extra cage work and the matching of his pitching peers’ dominance.
“You guys asked me yesterday, and I said I was expecting nothing short of incredible today,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said. “And he proved me wrong. He went beyond incredible.”
After walking the leadoff hitter, Brice Turang, Ohtani struck out the next three hitters, popping a pair of 100 mph-plus fastballs and unleashing the most confounding version of his splitter seen all year. He followed by obliterating a slurve from Jose Quintana in the bottom of the inning for a home run, the first time a pitcher ever hit a leadoff homer in the game’s history, regular season or playoffs.
The strikeouts continued — one in the third inning, two more in the fourth, preceding Ohtani’s second home run, which left 50,000 mouths agape. In the stands, they cheered, and in the dugout, they whooped, and in the bullpen, they screamed: “The ball went out of the stadium!” Alex Vesia, the reliever who would come in after Ohtani struck out two more in the fifth and sixth innings, could not conceive that a person could hit a baseball in a game that far. Officially, it went 469 feet. It felt like 1,000.
“At that point, it’s got to be the greatest game ever, right?” said Vesia, who did his part to help keep it so. Ohtani allowed a walk and a hit in the seventh inning, and had Vesia allowed either run to score, the sparkling zero in his pitching line could’ve been an unsightly one or crooked two. When he induced a ground ball up the middle that nutmegged his legs, Mookie Betts was in perfect position to hoover it, step on second and fire to first for a double play that preserved Ohtani’s goose egg.
In the next inning, Ohtani’s third home run of the night, and this one was just showing off: a shot to dead center off a 99 mph Trevor Megill fastball, a proper complement to the second off an 89 mph Chad Patrick cutter and the first off a 79 mph Quintana slurve). If it sounds impressive to hit three different pitches off three different pitchers for home runs in one night, it is. To do so throwing six innings, allowing two hits, walking three and striking out 10 is otherworldly.
“We were so focused on just winning the game, doing what needed to be done, I’m not sure we realized how good it really was,” Dodgers catcher Will Smith said. “I didn’t really appreciate it until after. Like, he actually did that?”
Yes. Yes he did. In baseball history, 503 players have hit three home runs in a game, and 1,550 have struck out 10 or more in a game. None, until Friday, had done both. And that’s what Shohei Ohtani does, who he is. For eight years, he has transformed what is possible in baseball, set a truly impossible standard to match, and now, finally, having signed with a franchise capable of giving his talents the largest stage, Ohtani gets to perform when it matters most.
Milwaukee won more games during the regular season than anyone. Regardless of how impotent the Brewers’ offense was this series, they were a very good team, and the Dodgers flayed them. The final game was an exclamation point — and a warning for the Seattle Mariners or Toronto Blue Jays, whichever survives the back-and-forth American League Championship Series.
Shohei Ohtani awaits. Good luck.
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