Billionaire Ken Griffin said stiff inflation could persist “for decades” as wars in Ukraine and Israel further push the world towards “deglobalization” — and warned of dire consequences as the US government continues its spending binge.
The founder of the giant Citadel hedge fund — who’s worth a reported $35.5 billion, per Bloomberg estimates — said the federal government clearly didn’t brace for inflation during the pandemic, when it “went on the spending spree that created a $33 trillion deficit.”
Last month, the US government posted a $1.695 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, a 23% jump from the prior year as revenues fell and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and record-high interest costs on the federal debt rose.
The US’s fiscal binge must be reined in, Griffin added, as the country is spending on the government level like a drunken sailor.
The Treasury Department said the deficit was the largest since a COVID-fueled $2.78 trillion gap in 2021, though President Joe Biden is still asking Congress for $100 billion in new foreign aid and security spending — including $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel — along with funding for US border security and the Indo-Pacific region.
The figures are unsustainable, according to Griffin, and mark a major return to ballooning deficits after back-to-back declines during President Bidens first two years in office.
Surging inflation, meanwhile, will increase the cost of funding the US deficit, he warned.
The peace dividend is clearly at the end of the road, Griffin said at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Thursday, nodding to international conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
“We are likely to see higher real rates and were likely to see higher nominal rates,” he added, according to Bloomberg.
The fiscal 2023 deficit would have been $321 billion larger, but was reduced by this amount because the Supreme Court struck down Bidens student loan forgiveness program as unconstitutional.
The ruling forced the Treasury to reverse a pre-emptive charge against fiscal 2022 budget results that increased that years deficit.
The fiscal year 2022 deficit was $1.375 trillion.
The 55-year-old hedge fund titan also pointed to pandemic-induced supply-chain disruptions and European countries losing access to Russian natural gas as reason that “a trend towards higher baseline inflation…could be for decades,” per the outlet.
Theres many trends at play right now that are pushing us toward deglobalization, he added.
Inflation has squeezed Americans since before its 9.1% peak in June 2022, which spurred the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening regime that has lowered the figure sharply but has yet to reach the central bank’s 2% target.
In September, the Consumer Price Index — the most widely used measure of inflation that tracks the overall change in goods and services — rose 3.7% year over year, driven primarily by the gasoline index’s advance.
The gasoline index ticked 2.1% higher last month, the federal agency said, a stark slowdown from August’s 10.6% increase, when AAA figures showed that the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.85.
As of Thursday, a gallon of gas in the US averages $3.40, according to AAA.
While many investors had been willing to look past the volatile energy numbers, a surprisingly resilient labor market has some worried that inflation could be more stubborn.
However, Griffin warned that US consumers realize deep down that something is not quite right, despite the country’s payroll gains, according to Bloomberg.
October’s CPI data will be released on Nov. 14.
Should inflation rise again, all attention will no doubt be on whether the Fed implements one more interest rate hike by the end of the year, pushing it beyond its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Energy bills are to rise again next year, according to a respected forecaster.
Costs from January to March are projected to rise another 1% to £1,736 a year for the average user, according to research firm Cornwall Insight.
The energy price cap, which sets a limit on how much companies can charge per unit of electricity, is also expected to rise, costing typical households an extra £19 a year.
After the latest hike, there were hopes of a fall in the new year, but volatile wholesale gas and electricity markets are still above historic average costs.
Prices have gone up due to supply concerns arising from Russia‘s war in Ukraine, and maintenance of Norwegian gas infrastructure.
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But spring is expected to herald a reduction as is October 2025, Cornwall Insight said.
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‘Energy prices make me depressed’, pensioner Roy Roots said in August
Every three months energy regulator Ofgem revises the cap based on wholesale costs.
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The official January price cap announcement will be made on Friday.
It comes as millions of pensioners lost their automatic winter fuel allowance payment after the government means-tested the benefit.
Meanwhile, Cornwall Insight’s principal consultant Dr Craig Lowrey warned “millions” of households won’t heat their homes to “recommended temperatures, risking serious health consequences” with bills on the rise.
“With it being widely accepted that high prices are here to stay, we need to see action,” he said, suggesting options like cheaper rates for low-income homes, benefit restructuring, or other targeted support for the vulnerable “must be seriously considered”.
The energy price cap system is being reviewed by Ofgem with possible changes to the standing charge coming over the next year.
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Masked burglars have stolen farm vehicles from the Windsor Castle estate while members of the Royal Family are believed to have been asleep nearby.
Two men scaled a 6ft fence on the night of 13 October and used a stolen truck to break through a security gate, The Sun first reported.
The pair then fled with a pick-up and a quad bike that were stored in a barn.
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But the Prince and Princess of Wales, along with their three children George, 11, Charlotte, nine, and six-year-old Louis were believed to have been in their home, Adelaide Cottage, on the estate, according to The Sun.
The family moved there in 2022.
In a statement, Thames Valley Police said: “At around 11.45pm on Sunday 13 October, we received a report of burglary at a property on Crown Estate land near to the A308 in Windsor.
“Offenders entered a farm building and made off with a black Isuzu pick-up and a red quad bike. They then made off towards the Old Windsor/Datchet area.
“No arrests have been made at this stage and an investigation is ongoing.”
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The UK is braced for “disruptive snow” as yellow weather warnings cover large parts of the country until Tuesday – with the Met Office saying there is the “potential” for the alerts to be “escalated”.
The forecaster has warned up to 20cm of snow may accumulate in the worst affected areas as the country experiences its “first taste of winter”.
The Met Office has also told people to expect ice, cold temperatures and wintry showers this week.
A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for much of the north of the country – covering areas in the East Midlands, Yorkshire, Wales and the north of England – from 7pm on Monday night to 10am on Tuesday morning.
Those in the impacted areas have been told power cuts are possible and mobile phone coverage might be affected.
The Met Office has said there is a “slight chance” some rural communities could be cut off and that bus and train services may be delayed or cancelled.
People are also warned to be careful not to slip or fall on icy surfaces.
The Met Office has said there will be bright spells across northern and eastern areas throughout today, but rain in the south and west will gradually spread northeastwards and turn to snow over northern hills.
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Tom Morgan, Met Office meteorologist, said: “We could see some disruptive snow in the Pennine regions, in particular, the Peak District as well, especially Monday night, but we could well see some impacts lasting on until Tuesday morning’s rush hour.
“Even down to lower levels, we could well see some snow as well, so quite a bit of disruption possible by Tuesday morning, and then the week ahead is likely to stay cold nationwide, a windy day on Tuesday, and then winter showers through the week ahead.”
Mr Morgan said that despite a “mild” start to the month, the cold conditions are more typical of “mid-winter to late-winter”.
“What we can say is that it’s going to be very cold for the time of year, there will be widespread overnight frosts, and a few locations where there’s snow on the ground,” he continued.
Meanwhile, a yellow snow and ice weather warning that came into force at 4pm on Sunday will end at 11am this morning.
The warning covers the northern tip of Scotland and people there have been told there may be icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths.
The Met Office has said there is “potential” for both yellow warnings to be “escalated”.
In southern England, a typical maximum temperature for this time of year is 11C (52F), but daytime highs for the week ahead are forecast to be around 5C (41F), while some parts of Scotland will reach “only just above freezing”, Mr Morgan said.
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The meteorologist said the public can best prepare for the wintry weather by checking their cars are suitable for icy and potentially snowy conditions and to take extra supplies including food, blankets and a fully charged mobile phone with them on journeys.
He added there were “likely” to be changes to the weather warnings in the coming days, and that “winter flurries” could be seen in the south of England later in the week.
Despite the cold conditions, the “whole of the UK” will enjoy more sunshine this week, the meteorologist added.
He said: “There’ll be some snow showers in the peripheries of the UK, particularly northern Scotland, and down the east and the west coast, but if you live inland and you live in the south, there’ll be lots of sparkly blue skies on the most days through Tuesday to Friday.”
It comes as a cold weather alert issued by the UK Health Security Agency, which was introduced at 9am on Sunday, will be in place until 9am on Thursday.
It covers a large area of England, north of Northhampton. The alert is triggered when there is a risk that healthcare services might face extra pressure and is designed to prepare those who are “particularly vulnerable” and “likely to struggle to cope”.