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US total household debt levels continued to rise in the third quarter, amid a surge in credit card debt tied to a hot economy, while borrowing troubles increased in a way that if sustained could signal looming turbulence for the economy, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Tuesday said.

In its quarterly report, the bank said overall debt levels increased by 1.3% during the third quarter to a level of $17.29 trillion. And in that rise, credit card borrowing levels rose by 4.7% to $1.08 trillion.

Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth, said Donghoon Lee, a New York Fed economist, in a press release accompanying the report.

US economic activity in the third quarter took placeat a blistering pacefew economists expect to be repeated in the final three months of the year. Overall activity rose at a well-above-trend pace of 4.9%, the fastest such gain in two years, in an environment where the Fed was raising rates and overall borrowing costs broadly rose.

The surge in borrowing costs has waylaid activity in the housing market amid the highest mortgage rates in decades, and the landscape has fueled worries that many Americans will struggle to manage their debt, especially as high levels of savings during the coronavirus pandemic run down. The New York Fed report found credit issues are rising, albeit from low levels.

Overall debt delinquency increased by 3% as of September from a 2.6% increase in the second quarter, the report said, while still standing below the 4.7% delinquency rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2019, just ahead of the pandemics arrival.

The overall flow of debt moving into delinquency stood at 1.28% in the third quarter, compared to 0.94% in the third quarter of last year. The report said increases in credit card delinquency rates were most pronounced for those aged between 30 and 39.

The continued rise increditcarddelinquency rates is broad-based across area income and region, but particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans, the economist noted.

In a blog posting that came with the report, New York Fed economists said the rise in credit woes is puzzling given the generally solid state of the economy.

Pinning an explanation on the delinquency rise is difficult and whether this is a consequence of shifts in lending, overextension, or deeper economic distress associated with higher borrowing costs and price pressures is an important topic for further research,” the post said.

The New York Fed report found that overall student loan debt rose by $30 billion to $1.6 trillion in the third quarter. The banks data on this type of borrowing arrived after the restart of student loan debt payments, which had been put on hold during the pandemic. The resumption of those payments has been a source of concern, butrecent New York Fed researchhas suggested only modest economic headwinds are likely to result.

Newly created mortgages totaled $386 billion in the third quarter, while the overall level of mortgage balances rose by $126 billion to $12.14 trillion as of the end of September.

The report said auto loan balances were up by $13 billion in the third quarter at $1.6 trillion, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011.

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South Korean court clears Wemade ex-CEO in Wemix manipulation case

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South Korean court clears Wemade ex-CEO in Wemix manipulation case

South Korean court clears Wemade ex-CEO in Wemix manipulation case

After nearly a year of legal proceedings, a South Korean court acquitted former Wemade CEO Jang Hyun-guk of market manipulation charges.

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Is there £15bn of wiggle room in Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules?

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Is there £15bn of wiggle room in Rachel Reeves's fiscal rules?

Are Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules quite as iron clad as she insists?

How tough is her armour really? And is there actually scope for some change, some loosening to avoid big tax hikes in the autumn?

We’ve had a bit of clarity early this morning – and that’s a question we discuss on the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast today.

Politics Live: Reeves to reform financial regulations

And tens of billions of pounds of borrowing depends on the answer – which still feels intriguingly opaque.

You might think you know what the fiscal rules are. And you might think you know they’re not negotiable.

For instance, the main fiscal rule says that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to be in surplus – i.e. rely on taxation alone, not borrowing.

And Rachel Reeves has been clear – that’s not going to change, and there’s no disputing this.

But when the government announced its fiscal rules in October, it actually published a 19-page document – a “charter” – alongside this.

And this contains all sorts of notes and caveats. And it’s slightly unclear which are subject to the “iron clad” promise – and which aren’t.

There’s one part of that document coming into focus – with sources telling me that it could get changed.

And it’s this – a little-known buffer built into the rules.

It’s outlined in paragraph 3.6 on page four of the Charter for Budget Responsibility.

This says that from spring 2027, if the OBR forecasts that she still actually has a deficit of up to 0.5% of GDP in three years, she will still be judged to be within the rules.

In other words, if in spring 2027 she’s judged to have missed her fiscal rules by perhaps as much as £15bn, that’s fine.

Rachel Reeves during a visit to Cosy Ltd.
Pic: PA
Image:
A change could save the chancellor some headaches. Pic: PA

Now there’s a caveat – this exemption only applies, providing at the following budget the chancellor reduces that deficit back to zero.

But still, it’s potentially helpful wiggle room.

This help – this buffer – for Reeves doesn’t apply today, or for the next couple of years – it only kicks in from the spring of 2027.

But I’m being told by a source that some of this might change and the ability to use this wiggle room could be brought forward to this year. Could she give herself a get out of jail card?

The chancellor could gamble that few people would notice this technical change, and it might avoid politically catastrophic tax hikes – but only if the markets accept it will mean higher borrowing than planned.

But the question is – has Rachel Reeves ruled this out by saying her fiscal rules are iron clad or not?

Or to put it another way… is the whole of the 19-page Charter for Budget Responsibility “iron clad” and untouchable, or just the rules themselves?

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Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?

And what counts as “rules” and are therefore untouchable, and what could fall outside and could still be changed?

I’ve been pressing the Treasury for a statement.

And this morning, they issued one.

A spokesman said: “The fiscal rules as set out in the Charter for Budget Responsibility are iron clad, and non-negotiable, as are the definition of the rules set out in the document itself.”

So that sounds clear – but what is a definition of the rule? Does it include this 0.5% of GDP buffer zone?

Read more:
Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn
Tough decisions ahead for chancellor

The Treasury does concede that not everything in the charter is untouchable – including the role and remit of the OBR, and the requirements for it to publish a specific list of fiscal metrics.

But does that include that key bit? Which bits can Reeves still tinker with?

I’m still unsure that change has been ruled out.

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LA sheriff deputies admit to helping crypto ‘Godfather’ extort victims

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LA sheriff deputies admit to helping crypto ‘Godfather’ extort victims

LA sheriff deputies admit to helping crypto ‘Godfather’ extort victims

The Justice Department says two LA Sheriff deputies admitted to helping extort victims, including for a local crypto mogul, while working their private security side hustles.

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