In the end, Thursday’s drama involving Suella Braverman is – at its heart – not about the rights and wrongs of marches, the judgement of the police or potential breaches of the ministerial code, although each and all have been subplots at various points.
Actually, the story about the home secretary boils down to a trial of political strength between her and the prime minister.
In our system, there can only be one winner – which is why it is a question of when, not if, she leaves her job in order to prepare for office on the other side of a general election.
In it, she attacked the judgement of the police on a specific matter – thereby allowing critics to say she compromised the operational independence of the Metropolitan Police.
She also allowed a gap to emerge between her and the PM, who by the end of Wednesday was indicating he understood why the Met was allowing the pro-Palestinian march to go ahead.
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Thirdly, and most egregiously in the eyes of some in the Conservative Party, it allowed her to grab headlines once again with inflammatory languages about officers, marches and Northern Ireland– sending Number 10 in a spin over whether to echo, condemn, agree or repudiate.
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4:36
Suella Braverman branded pro-Palestinian protests in London as ‘hate marches’.
Tory MPs divide both ways over whether the essential judgement in the Braverman article is correct.
Some believe the Metropolitan Police is making the wrong call by allowing the march on Armistice Day to proceed.
Others believe that a law-and-order party should not be second guessing the Met, and are furious with the way she invoked Northern Ireland.
Meanwhile, Number 10 will be nervous of backing the march too strongly in case it ends up getting ugly on Saturday.
They don’t want Braverman to look vindicated if the march goes wrong.
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1:55
‘Is the prime minister too weak to sack Suella Braverman?’
So where does this leave Number 10?
Firstly, they are trying to shift the argument away from whether Braverman is right or wrong – and on to a question of whether she should go because she is disrespecting the office of prime minister.
Number 10 has briefed the entire media that the article in The Times was not “cleared” – approved for publication – and we understand Downing Street asked for substantial changes that were not done.
Discourteous and politically untenable, yes, but not a clear breach of collective responsibility – since that only applies to policy not language.
Secondly, there’s a question of timing. She could be sacked on Friday, but Number 10 will not know how the march has gone at that point.
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Furthermore, perhaps Sunak will take the opportunity to conduct the wider reshuffle he has long wanted but not felt able to do – promoting allies to better positions and sidelining those he reluctantly inherited. That will take all weekend to prepare.
Mr Sunak might not be able to wait as long as long as Wednesday, when at 10am the Supreme Court rules on the government’s Rwanda policy – another moment and another issue over which Braverman might walk.
So, all of that points to a Monday medium-to-big reshuffle.
Nothing is confirmed, and maybe he will duck it. But right now – after a mediocre King’s Speech and little sense of momentum felt by Tory MPs – that might be his best chance of a reset.
According to the US Department of Justice, Wolf Capital’s co-founder has pleaded guilty to wire fraud conspiracy for luring 2,800 crypto investors into a Ponzi scheme.
Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.
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On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
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10:32
Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China
However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”