It is a question of when – not if – Suella Braverman leaves her job

Published

2 years ago

November 10, 2023

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In the end, Thursday’s drama involving Suella Braverman is – at its heart – not about the rights and wrongs of marches, the judgement of the police or potential breaches of the ministerial code, although each and all have been subplots at various points.

Actually, the story about the home secretary boils down to a trial of political strength between her and the prime minister.

In our system, there can only be one winner – which is why it is a question of when, not if, she leaves her job in order to prepare for office on the other side of a general election.

Politics Hub: No 10 suggested changes to Braverman article before publication

Her article prepared for The Times was politically important for three reasons.

In it, she attacked the judgement of the police on a specific matter – thereby allowing critics to say she compromised the operational independence of the Metropolitan Police.

She also allowed a gap to emerge between her and the PM, who by the end of Wednesday was indicating he understood why the Met was allowing the pro-Palestinian march to go ahead.

Thirdly, and most egregiously in the eyes of some in the Conservative Party, it allowed her to grab headlines once again with inflammatory languages about officers, marches and Northern Ireland – sending Number 10 in a spin over whether to echo, condemn, agree or repudiate.

This routine is now such a common occurrence. It has happened more than once this week, for example, over whether homelessness is a “lifestyle choice”.

Tory MPs divide both ways over whether the essential judgement in the Braverman article is correct.

Some believe the Metropolitan Police is making the wrong call by allowing the march on Armistice Day to proceed.

Others believe that a law-and-order party should not be second guessing the Met, and are furious with the way she invoked Northern Ireland.

Meanwhile, Number 10 will be nervous of backing the march too strongly in case it ends up getting ugly on Saturday.

They don’t want Braverman to look vindicated if the march goes wrong.

So where does this leave Number 10?

Firstly, they are trying to shift the argument away from whether Braverman is right or wrong – and on to a question of whether she should go because she is disrespecting the office of prime minister.

Number 10 has briefed the entire media that the article in The Times was not “cleared” – approved for publication – and we understand Downing Street asked for substantial changes that were not done.

Discourteous and politically untenable, yes, but not a clear breach of collective responsibility – since that only applies to policy not language.

Secondly, there’s a question of timing. She could be sacked on Friday, but Number 10 will not know how the march has gone at that point.

Furthermore, perhaps Sunak will take the opportunity to conduct the wider reshuffle he has long wanted but not felt able to do – promoting allies to better positions and sidelining those he reluctantly inherited. That will take all weekend to prepare.

Mr Sunak might not be able to wait as long as long as Wednesday, when at 10am the Supreme Court rules on the government’s Rwanda policy – another moment and another issue over which Braverman might walk.

So, all of that points to a Monday medium-to-big reshuffle.

Nothing is confirmed, and maybe he will duck it. But right now – after a mediocre King’s Speech and little sense of momentum felt by Tory MPs – that might be his best chance of a reset.

Politics

Nigel Farage dared me to walk in London after 9pm: Here’s my response

Published

3 hours ago

August 4, 2025

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Nigel Farage dared me to walk in London after 9pm: Here's my response

At a press conference today in which Reform UK announced the Tory police and crime commissioner for Leicestershire was joining their ranks, as well as former prison governor Vanessa Frake, I asked Nigel Farage a simple question.

But his answer wasn’t what I expected.

I asked the Reform UK leader if the six-week campaign on law and order, with the tagline “Britain is Lawless”, was in fact project fear scaring people into voting for his party.

He utterly rejected that claim and responded to me saying: “No, they are afraid. They are afraid. I dare you, I dare you to walk through the West End of London after 9 o’clock of an evening wearing jewellery. You wouldn’t do it. You know that I’m right. You wouldn’t do it.”

I am not afraid to walk in the West End of London after 9pm wearing jewellery.

I have done it many times before and will continue to do so… but perhaps that is because I do not own a Rolex.

However, just because Farage is wrong on that point, doesn’t mean he isn’t tapping into other legitimate fears across the country.

Snatch theft does worry me, hence why I now have a phone case with a strap attached to it that I can put around my body.

And I worry about knife crime in my area and what the impact could be if I were to have children – on the weekend someone was stabbed to death a stone’s throw from my house.

However, if we look at the statistics, it is invariably a more nuanced picture than Farage or social media might have us believe.

According to police reports, thefts from a person in London are almost five times the national average, and they’ve been going up since the pandemic.

And the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also notes that thefts outside of the home, eg phone snatching, has increased.

However, possession of weapons has fallen in London by 29% over the last three years.

And according to the ONS, crime in England and Wales is 30% lower than in 2015, and 76% lower than 1995.

And it is a similar picture for violent crime.

In short, am I right to be more worried that snatch theft and knife crime in London is increasing? Yes, and no.

But Nigel Farage is tapping into voters’ emotions – their feelings that the country is broken. It’s a picture the Conservative Party helped to create and the Labour Party happily painted to great effect during the general election campaign of 2024.

And the more politicians of all colours tell voters that “the system is broken”, the more voters might start to believe them.

That is what Nigel Farage is banking on.

Politics

Crypto funds see $223M outflow, ending 15-week streak as Fed dampens sentiment

Published

6 hours ago

August 4, 2025

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Crypto funds see 3M outflow, ending 15-week streak as Fed dampens sentiment

Profit-taking broke a 15-week winning streak of global cryptocurrency ETPs last week after hawkish remarks that followed last week’s US Fed rate decision.