Connect with us

Published

on

The UK economy has flatlined but has avoided a recession this year as the chancellor warned high inflation remained the main obstacle to growth.

Fresh data from the Office for National Statistics shows that gross domestic product (GDP) – which measures the value of goods and services produced – rose by 0.2% over the month, amid a boost from the film production, health and education industries although growth in August was revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%.

While the figures indicate the economy failed to grow at all in the third quarter, it does mean the UK dodges a recession this year which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

Analysts had predicted a 0.2% fall for the latest period.

Economists said the manufacturing and construction sectors particularly helped to support growth over the end of the quarter.

Sclerotic growth gives chancellor little room for manoeuvre


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

Zero growth in the third quarter of 2023 was marginally better than expectations of a small contraction, but confirmed the UK’s flatlining post-COVID economic trajectory.

There may be some relief that the prospect of recession, predicted by the Bank of England among others earlier in the year, has receded, but there is precious little to celebrate beneath the headline figure.

The torpor in the three months to September affected all significant sectors more or less equally.

Services activity fell by 0.1% cancelling out a 0.1% increase in construction, while production was flat.

Meanwhile, spending by companies, individuals and the public sector, was depressed, with business investment, household and government spending all down.

This may further evidence that the interest rate increases pushed through by the Bank of England to tackle inflation are biting, making everyone more cautious, but it also underlines the challenge to the chancellor two weeks out from his autumn statement.

Jeremy Hunt has made clear that a growing economy is the key to any significant move, whether to stimulate business growth or consumer spending via tax cuts, which he has consistently ruled out to the dismay of Conservative backbenchers.

Sclerotic growth gives him very little room for manoeuvre, or much chance to change the course of an economy that appears to be adrift, waiting for the weather to change.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said: “The economy is estimated to have shown no growth in the third quarter.

“Services dropped a little with falls in health, management consultancy and commercial property rentals.

More on Cost Of Living

“These were partially offset by growth in engineering, car sales and machinery leasing.

“In the month of September the economy grew slightly, with increases in film production, health and education.

“This growth was partially offset by falls in retail and computer programming.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Inflation is still too high’

The Bank of England said last week it expected zero growth in the economy next year but kept interest rates at a 15-year high as it continued to battle an inflation rate more than three times its 2% target.

The central bank had forecast a flat reading for growth in the third quarter.

Read more on Sky News:
Concern about the ‘intensity of competition’ among fuel providers
Signs landlords struggling most as number of households in mortgage arrears leaps by 18%

Responding to the latest ONS data ahead of the autumn budget statement on 22 November, Jeremy Hunt said: “High inflation is the single greatest barrier to economic growth.

“The best way to sustainably grow our economy right now is stick to our plan and knock inflation on its head.

“The autumn statement will focus on how we get the economy growing healthily again by unlocking investment, getting people back into work and reforming our public services so we can deliver the growth our country needs.”

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “These figures are further evidence that the economy is not working under the Conservatives and working people are worse off.”

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The economy narrowly avoided contracting in Q3, and we continue to think that it can maintain this resilient performance in Q4.

“We continue to think that the chances of a recession look low.”

Continue Reading

Business

Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

Published

on

By

Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of Britain’s leading bread producers, are in talks about a historic merger amid a decades-long decline in the sale of supermarket loaves.

Sky News has learnt that Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, and Hovis, which is owned by investment firm Endless, have been involved in prolonged discussions about a combination of the two businesses.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were ongoing, but that there was no certainty that a deal would be finalised.

Bankers are said to be working with both sides on the talks about a transaction.

A deal could be structured as an acquisition of Hovis by ABF, according to analysts, although details about the mechanics of a merger or the valuations attached to the two businesses were unclear this weekend.

ABF is also said to be exploring other options for the future of Allied Bakeries which do not include a deal with Hovis.

If completed, a merger would unite two of Britain’s best-known ambient food brands, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

More from Money

Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning strength of man.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair the bread industry’s financial health in recent decades.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices has been among the factors increasing inflationary pressures on bread producers, according to the most recent set of accounts for Hovis filed at Companies House last year.

The overall UK bakery market is said to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

The principal obstacle facing a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis would reside in its consequences for competition in the UK market.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector in the UK, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group a larger share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain larger because of the breadth of its product range.

Nevertheless, reducing the number of major supermarket bread suppliers from three to two would be a test of the Competition and Markets Authority’s approach to such industry-reshaping mergers at a time when the watchdog is under intense government scrutiny.

Read more on Sky News:
Aston Martin in pay concern
Co-op ‘sorry’ over hacking
Mintago £6m funding boost

In January, the government removed the CMA chairman, Marcus Bokkerink, as part of a push to reorient Britain’s economic regulators around growth-focused objectives.

An industry insider suggested that a joint venture involving the distribution networks of Hovis and Kingsmill was a possible, although less likely, alternative to a full-blown merger of the companies.

They added that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of cost savings from such a tie-up.

In its interim results announcement this week, ABF said the performance of Allied Bakeries had continued to struggle.

“Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market,” it said.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we expect to provide an update in [the second half of] 2025.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF described the losses at Allied as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Allied also owns Speedibake, an own-label bread manufacturer.

Hovis has been owned by Endless, a prominent investor in British businesses, since 2020, having previously been owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites and its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF and Endless both declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

Published

on

By

Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

Aston Martin is steering a path towards a twin-pronged pay row with shareholders as it grapples with the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on car manufacturers.

Sky News can reveal that the influential proxy voting adviser ISS is urging investors to vote against both of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ remuneration votes at next week’s annual general meeting.

The pay policy vote, which is binding on the company, has attracted opposition from ISS because it proposes significant increases to potential bonus awards to Adrian Hallmark, the company’s new chief executive.

“Concerns are raised regarding the increased bonus maximums, which are built upon competitively[1]positioned salary levels and do not appear appropriate given the company’s recent performance,” ISS said in a report to clients.

More from Money

Aston Martin is also facing a meaningful vote against its pay report for last year – which is on an advisory basis only – because of the salaries awarded to Mr Hallmark and other executive directors.

The company’s shares have nearly halved in the last year, and it now has a market value of little more than £660m.

Despite the ISS recommendation, Aston Martin will win the vote by virtue of chairman Lawrence Stroll’s 33% shareholding.

The luxury car manufacturer has had a torrid time as a public company and now faces the headwinds of President Trump’s tariffs blitz.

This week it said it would limit exports to the US to offset the impact of the policy.

Aston Martin did not respond to a request for comment ahead of next Wednesday’s AGM.

Continue Reading

Business

Financial wellbeing platform Mintago lands £6m funding boost

Published

on

By

Financial wellbeing platform Mintago lands £6m funding boost

A financial wellbeing platform which counts the alcohol-free beer producer Lucky Saint among its clients has landed a £6m funding injection from a syndicate of well-known investors.

Sky News understands that Mintago, which was founded in 2019, will announce in the coming days that Guinness Ventures has jointly led the Series A round alongside Seed X Liechtenstein and Social Impact Enterprises.

Mintago, which also counts car rental firm Avis and Northumbrian Police among its customers, aims to help employees save and manage their money more effectively.

More from Money

A number of the start-up’s current investors, Love Ventures and Truesight Ventures, are also understood to have reinvested as part of the fundraising.

MINTAGO
Image:
The company, which counts Lucky Saint and Avis among its users, has finalised a Series A funding round

The company was set up by Chieu Cao and Daniel Conti, and claims to offer more salary sacrifice schemes than any other UK provider.

It also provides independent financial advice, a service for finding lost pension pots, retail discounts and GP services.

“We realised that organisations are crying out for the same help we provide their staff,” Mr Conti said.

“The benefits of providing that support impact everyone.

“When a company improves their salary sacrifice benefits engagement, they can save thousands in National Insurance Contributions, but their employees save too, easing the strain on their finances.”

The new capital will be used to develop additional products using artificial intelligence, according to the company.

“Mintago is enabling its customers to become truly people-centric organisations by giving them the tools to support their employees’ financial wellbeing,” Mathias Jaeggi, a partner at Seed X Liechtenstein, said.

Continue Reading

Trending