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Until the formal confirmation of a reshuffle, we won’t know for sure whether Rishi Sunak intends to oust his home secretary Suella Braverman on a charge, effectively, of disobedience.

We do know, however, it has been discussed. And we don’t know the resolution yet. One Whitehall source put the odds as high as 90% on Sunday afternoon that it would be a Monday reshuffle, although – despite the punchy prediction – we really don’t know until the PM has formally begun. Nobody should be that sure.

What we are sure about is the arguments behind, rehearsed at the top of government for and against.

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First, the case for sacking her. Sunak has spent months having to respond to Braverman’s language. Despite being the most socially conservative prime minister possibly since Margaret Thatcher, the punchier language of his home secretary endlessly left Number 10 in a dilemma.

Whether it was the “hurricane” of migrants, the “lifestyle choice” to be homeless or the criticism of police bias, she makes it look like he is dancing to her tune. There’s a growing worry among some Tory MPs he must endlessly respond to her, rather than looking strong and his own view dominating.

The fact that they agree on most policy issues may actually put Braverman in a weaker position. On most home affairs topics, the PM agrees on the substance, with the two apparent exceptions being the extent of legal migration the country should allow, and what should happen in the event the government loses the Supreme Court judgment on Wednesday.

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There are signs she wants immediate action to override the European Convention on Human Rights – perhaps a pre-election bill; Sunak would be slower, mindful such a move would blow up the Windsor framework he negotiated that normalised relations with the EU. Again a further reason for ditching her now: fail to act at the start of this week and on Wednesday, when the Supreme Court verdict on the Rwanda policy is released, she may resign anyway if they disagree.

The next reason for dismissal would be the jeopardy done to the working relationship with the police, who she accused of bias in The Times article.

Politics latest: Braverman hits out at ‘sick’ and ‘clearly criminal chants’

The leaked WhatsApp conversation between Tory MPs to Sky News on Friday revealed the depth of division over this specific point – some saw it tantamount to a challenge to democracy; others a necessity for ensuring sensible policing. However it is certainly unusual and unprecedented and for Sunak, far from on brand to have a minister doing such a thing.

Then there is the charge of insubordination. Few members of the public would care about the internal governance process to clear an article for publication – almost no one noticed that the home secretary published words that were not authorised by Number 10. However by sacking her for disobedience by publishing The Times article that Number 10 objected to, rather than the content itself – which the Met themselves said made policing more difficult – they can attempt to avoid accusations that Braverman was simply too tough a home secretary for this PM.

Read more:
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Is Braverman digging her own political grave?
Why Met chief has firmer grasp on liberal democracy than Braverman

However, there is also a credible case for keeping Braverman as home secretary. There are anecdotal signs that among the voters that matter – 2019 Tory voters who have drifted away – Braverman is a draw. There’s a view that you cannot be too tough on law and order, even if – as Tory MPs Danny Kruger and John Hayes would argue – this means criticism of the police.

Some think it mad to act before the Rwanda decision on Wednesday. If this goes the government’s way and the Supreme Court give the green light, then Sunak and Braverman are united, and coupled with the likely success on meeting the PM’s inflation goal, the sense of trouble could disappear within days.

Talk of resignations if she goes

Then there is the question about how much Tory turmoil Sunak would have to endure. There’s talk of resignations if she goes, and setting himself for a conflict with the right is a challenging dynamic at this stage of the electoral cycle.

We have already had a flavour: some MPs inclined to back Braverman are already attacking chief whip Simon Hart suggesting he’s out of touch with the party and the party chairman Greg Hands for not understanding the realignment in politics – Cameron-style big tent politics is dead, they claim. Some MPs sympathetic to her even believe Sunak is “jealous” of her ability to communicate. Do you want all this amplified through a megaphone?

That is the dynamic Sunak must weigh up. What is more important – being right (on the issues) or being strong (with his team). The civil service are ready for a reshuffle – the packs to brief new ministers were prepared on Tuesday night and Wednesday last week, even before this latest cycle of tumult developed. The grid is free-ish on Monday and Wednesday. But the decision is Sunak’s alone. Which way will he go?

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Labour deputy leadership candidate accuses opponent’s team of ‘throwing mud’ and briefing against her

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Labour deputy leadership candidate accuses opponent's team of 'throwing mud' and briefing against her

Lucy Powell has accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race in a special episode of Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

With just days to go until the race is decided, Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby spoke to the two leadership rivals about allegations of leaks, questions of party unity and their political vision.

Ms Powell told Electoral Dysfunction that through the course of the contest, she had “never leaked or briefed”.

But she said of negative stories about her in the media: “I think some of these things have also come from my opponent’s team as well. And I think they need calling out.

“We are two strong women standing in this contest. We’ve both got different things to bring to the job. I’m not going to get into the business of smearing and briefing against Bridget.

“Having us airing our dirty washing, throwing mud – both in this campaign or indeed after this if I get elected as deputy leader – that is not the game that I’m in.”

Ms Powell was responding to a “Labour source” who told the New Statesman last week: “Lucy was sacked from cabinet because she couldn’t be trusted not to brief or leak.”

Ms Powell said she had spoken directly to Ms Phillipson about allegations of briefings “a little bit”.

Bridget Phillipson (l) and Lucy Powell (r) spoke to Sky News' Beth Rigby in a special Electoral Dysfunction double-header. Pics: Reuters
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Bridget Phillipson (l) and Lucy Powell (r) spoke to Sky News’ Beth Rigby in a special Electoral Dysfunction double-header. Pics: Reuters

Phillipson denies leaks

But asked separately if her team had briefed against Ms Powell, Ms Phillipson told Rigby: “Not to my knowledge.”

And Ms Phillipson said she had not spoken “directly” to her opponent about the claims of negative briefings, despite Ms Powell saying the pair had talked about it.

“I don’t know if there’s been any discussion between the teams,” she added.

On the race itself, the education secretary said it would be “destabilising” if Ms Powell is elected, as she is no longer in the cabinet.

“I think there is a risk that comes of airing too much disagreement in public at a time when we need to focus on taking the fight to our opponents.

“I know Lucy would reject that, but I think that is for me a key choice that members are facing.”

She added: “It’s about the principle of having that rule outside of government that risks being the problem. I think I’ll be able to get more done in government.”

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

Insider vs outsider

But Ms Powell, who was recently sacked by Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Commons, said she could “provide a stronger, more independent voice”.

“The party is withering on the vine at the same time, and people have got big jobs in government to do.

“Politics is moving really, really fast. Government is very, very slow. And I think having a full-time political deputy leader right now is the political injection we need.”

The result of the contest will be announced on Saturday 25 October.

The deputy leader has the potential to be a powerful and influential figure as the link between members and the parliamentary Labour Party, and will have a key role in election campaigns. They can’t be sacked by Sir Keir as they have their own mandate.

The contest was triggered by the resignation of Angela Rayner following a row over her tax affairs. She was also the deputy prime minister but this position was filled by David Lammy in a wider cabinet reshuffle.

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UK tax authority doubles crypto warning letters in crackdown on unpaid gains

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UK tax authority doubles crypto warning letters in crackdown on unpaid gains

UK tax authority doubles crypto warning letters in crackdown on unpaid gains

HMRC sent nearly 65,000 warning letters to crypto investors last year, more than double the previous year, as the UK steps up efforts to trace undeclared capital gains.

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‘Additional resources’ offered by govt to reverse ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans at Villa game

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'Additional resources' offered by govt to reverse ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans at Villa game

The government says it is exploring what “additional resources and support are required” to allow “all fans” to attend Maccabi Tel Aviv’s match against Aston Villa next month.

Supporters of the Israeli side have been told they are not allowed to attend November’s game in Birmingham after a decision by Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG).

The group – made up of local stakeholders, including representatives from the council, police and event organisers – said the decision was due to a high risk of violence based on “current intelligence and previous incidents”.

Politics live: MPs react to Maccabi Tel Aviv fan ban

The decision has been criticised across the political spectrum, with Sir Keir Starmer describing it as a “wrong decision” while Tory opposition leader Kemi Badenoch called it a “national disgrace”.

In a statement on Friday night, a government spokesperson said: “No one should be stopped from watching a football game simply because of who they are.

“The government is working with policing and other partners to do everything in our power to ensure this game can safely go ahead, with all fans present.

“We are exploring what additional resources and support are required so all fans can attend.”

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Birmingham residents react to the Maccabi fan ban

Meanwhile, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said: “Antisemitism is a stain on our society that shames us all. Every football fan, whoever they are, should be able to watch their team in safety.

“This government is doing everything in our power to ensure all fans can safely attend the game.”

The prime minister’s spokesman previously said Sir Keir would “do everything in his power to give Jewish communities the security they deserve”.

Read more:
Why are fans banned – and has this happened before?
How this raises questions about one of the UK’s biggest cities

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Badenoch: Fan ban a ‘national disgrace’

The Home Office offered to provide more police for the event, while Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Communities Secretary Steve Reed also intervened.

However, senior police insisted the ban was necessary and cited clashes and hate crime offences committed when the Israeli team travelled to Amsterdam to play Ajax last year.

The Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv match – set to take place on Thursday 6 November – is a Europa League fixture.

UEFA, which runs the tournament, had urged UK authorities to ensure away fans could attend.

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