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Until the formal confirmation of a reshuffle, we won’t know for sure whether Rishi Sunak intends to oust his home secretary Suella Braverman on a charge, effectively, of disobedience.

We do know, however, it has been discussed. And we don’t know the resolution yet. One Whitehall source put the odds as high as 90% on Sunday afternoon that it would be a Monday reshuffle, although – despite the punchy prediction – we really don’t know until the PM has formally begun. Nobody should be that sure.

What we are sure about is the arguments behind, rehearsed at the top of government for and against.

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First, the case for sacking her. Sunak has spent months having to respond to Braverman’s language. Despite being the most socially conservative prime minister possibly since Margaret Thatcher, the punchier language of his home secretary endlessly left Number 10 in a dilemma.

Whether it was the “hurricane” of migrants, the “lifestyle choice” to be homeless or the criticism of police bias, she makes it look like he is dancing to her tune. There’s a growing worry among some Tory MPs he must endlessly respond to her, rather than looking strong and his own view dominating.

The fact that they agree on most policy issues may actually put Braverman in a weaker position. On most home affairs topics, the PM agrees on the substance, with the two apparent exceptions being the extent of legal migration the country should allow, and what should happen in the event the government loses the Supreme Court judgment on Wednesday.

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There are signs she wants immediate action to override the European Convention on Human Rights – perhaps a pre-election bill; Sunak would be slower, mindful such a move would blow up the Windsor framework he negotiated that normalised relations with the EU. Again a further reason for ditching her now: fail to act at the start of this week and on Wednesday, when the Supreme Court verdict on the Rwanda policy is released, she may resign anyway if they disagree.

The next reason for dismissal would be the jeopardy done to the working relationship with the police, who she accused of bias in The Times article.

Politics latest: Braverman hits out at ‘sick’ and ‘clearly criminal chants’

The leaked WhatsApp conversation between Tory MPs to Sky News on Friday revealed the depth of division over this specific point – some saw it tantamount to a challenge to democracy; others a necessity for ensuring sensible policing. However it is certainly unusual and unprecedented and for Sunak, far from on brand to have a minister doing such a thing.

Then there is the charge of insubordination. Few members of the public would care about the internal governance process to clear an article for publication – almost no one noticed that the home secretary published words that were not authorised by Number 10. However by sacking her for disobedience by publishing The Times article that Number 10 objected to, rather than the content itself – which the Met themselves said made policing more difficult – they can attempt to avoid accusations that Braverman was simply too tough a home secretary for this PM.

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Why Met chief has firmer grasp on liberal democracy than Braverman

However, there is also a credible case for keeping Braverman as home secretary. There are anecdotal signs that among the voters that matter – 2019 Tory voters who have drifted away – Braverman is a draw. There’s a view that you cannot be too tough on law and order, even if – as Tory MPs Danny Kruger and John Hayes would argue – this means criticism of the police.

Some think it mad to act before the Rwanda decision on Wednesday. If this goes the government’s way and the Supreme Court give the green light, then Sunak and Braverman are united, and coupled with the likely success on meeting the PM’s inflation goal, the sense of trouble could disappear within days.

Talk of resignations if she goes

Then there is the question about how much Tory turmoil Sunak would have to endure. There’s talk of resignations if she goes, and setting himself for a conflict with the right is a challenging dynamic at this stage of the electoral cycle.

We have already had a flavour: some MPs inclined to back Braverman are already attacking chief whip Simon Hart suggesting he’s out of touch with the party and the party chairman Greg Hands for not understanding the realignment in politics – Cameron-style big tent politics is dead, they claim. Some MPs sympathetic to her even believe Sunak is “jealous” of her ability to communicate. Do you want all this amplified through a megaphone?

That is the dynamic Sunak must weigh up. What is more important – being right (on the issues) or being strong (with his team). The civil service are ready for a reshuffle – the packs to brief new ministers were prepared on Tuesday night and Wednesday last week, even before this latest cycle of tumult developed. The grid is free-ish on Monday and Wednesday. But the decision is Sunak’s alone. Which way will he go?

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s plan to liquidate confiscated crypto through Hong Kong exchanges isn’t simply a policy — it’s to control global digital asset markets and outmaneuver the US.

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Make ‘significant adjustments’ to Online Safety Act, X urges govt

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X criticises Online Safety Act - and warns it's putting free speech in the UK at risk

The Online Safety Act is putting free speech at risk and needs significant adjustments, Elon Musk’s social network X has warned.

New rules that came into force last week require platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and X – as well as sites hosting pornography – to bring in measures to prove that someone using them is over the age of 18.

The Online Safety Act requires sites to protect children and to remove illegal content, but critics have said that the rules have been implemented too broadly, resulting in the censorship of legal content.

X has warned the act’s laudable intentions were “at risk of being overshadowed by the breadth of its regulatory reach”.

It said: “When lawmakers approved these measures, they made a conscientious decision to increase censorship in the name of ‘online safety’.

“It is fair to ask if UK citizens were equally aware of the trade-off being made.”

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What are the new online rules?

X claims the timetable for platforms to meet mandatory measures had been unnecessarily tight – and despite complying, sites still faced threats of enforcement and fines, “encouraging over-censorship”.

More on Online Safety Bill

“A balanced approach is the only way to protect individual liberties, encourage innovation and safeguard children. It’s safe to say that significant changes must take place to achieve these objectives in the UK,” it said.

A UK government spokesperson said it is “demonstrably false” that the Online Safety Act compromises free speech.

“As well as legal duties to keep children safe, the very same law places clear and unequivocal duties on platforms to protect freedom of expression,” they added.

Users have complained about age checks that require personal data to be uploaded to access sites that show pornography, and 468,000 people have already signed a petition asking for the new law to be repealed.

In response to the petition, the government said it had “no plans” to reverse the Online Safety Act.

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Why do people want to repeal the Online Safety Act?

Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage likened the new rules to “state suppression of genuine free speech” and said his party would ditch the regulations.

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said on Tuesday that those who wanted to overturn the act were “on the side of predators” – to which Mr Farage demanded an apology, calling Mr Kyle’s comments “absolutely disgusting”.

Regulator Ofcom said on Thursday it had launched an investigation into how four companies – that collectively run 34 pornography sites – are complying with new age-check requirements.

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These companies – 8579 LLC, AVS Group Ltd, Kick Online Entertainment S.A. and Trendio Ltd – run dozens of sites, and collectively have more than nine million unique monthly UK visitors, the internet watchdog said.

The regulator said it prioritised the companies based on the risk of harm posed by the services they operated and their user numbers.

It adds to the 11 investigations already in progress into 4chan, as well as an unnamed online suicide forum, seven file-sharing services, and two adult websites.

Ofcom said it expects to make further enforcement announcements in the coming months.

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Inside Jeremy Corbyn’s new party and the battle for leadership

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Inside Jeremy Corbyn's new party and the battle for leadership

Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn may be the figureheads of a new left-wing party, but already there is a battle over leadership.

The confusion behind the initial launch speaks to a wider debate happening behind closed doors as to who should steer the party – now and in the future.

Already, in the true spirit of Mr Corbyn’s politics, there is talk of an open leadership contest and grassroots participation.

Some supporters of the new party – which is being temporarily called “Your Party” while a formal name is decided by members – believe that allowing a leadership contest to take place honours Mr Corbyn’s commitment to open democracy.

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Jeremy Corbyn open to ideas on new party name

They point out that under Mr Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party, members famously backed plans to make it easier for local constituency parties to deselect sitting MPs – a concept he strongly believed in.

His allies now say the former Labour leader, who is 76, is open to there being a leadership contest for the new party, possibly at its inaugural conference in the autumn, where names lesser known than himself can throw their hat into the ring.

“Jeremy would rather die than not have an open leadership contest,” one source familiar with the internal politics told Sky News.

More on Jeremy Corbyn

However, there have been suggestions that Ms Sultana appears to be less keen on the idea of a leadership contest, and that she is more committed to the co-leadership model than her political partner.

Those who have been opposed to the co-leadership model believe it could give Ms Sultana an unfair advantage and exclude other potential candidates from standing in the future.

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Corbyn’s new political party isn’t ‘real deal’

One source told Sky News they believed Mr Corbyn should lead the party for two years, to get it established, before others are allowed to stand as leader.

They said Ms Sultana, who became an independent MP after she was suspended from Labour for opposing the two-child benefit cap, was “highly ambitious but completely untested as leader” and “had a lot of growing into the role to do”.

“It’s not about her – it’s about taking a democratic approach, which is what we’re supposed to be doing,” they said.

“There are so many people who have done amazing things locally and they need to have a chance to emerge as leaders.

“We are not only fishing from a pool of two people.

“It needs to be an open contest. Nobody needs to be crowned.”

Read more:
Where insiders think Corbyn’s new party could win
PM would be foolish not to recognise threat party poses

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Corbyn’s new party shakes the left

While Mr Corbyn and Ms Sultana undoubtedly have the biggest profiles out of would-be leaders, advocates for a grassroots approach to the leadership point to the success some independent candidates have enjoyed at a local level – for example, 24-year-old British Palestinian Leah Mohammed, who came within 528 votes of unseating Health Secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford North.

Fiona Lali of the Revolutionary Communist Party, who stood in last year’s general election for the Stratford and Bow constituency, has also been mentioned in some circles as someone with potential leadership credentials.

However, sources close to Mr Corbyn and Ms Sultana downplayed suggestions of any divide over the leadership model, pointing out that their joint statement acknowledged that members would “decide the party’s direction” at the inaugural conference in the autumn, including the model of leadership and the policies that are needed to transform society.

A spokesperson for Mr Corbyn told Sky News: “Jeremy will be working with Zarah, his independent colleagues, and people from trade unions and social movements up and down the country to make an autumn conference a reality.

“This will be the moment where people come together to launch a new democratic party that belongs to the members.”

Sky News has approached Ms Sultana for comment.

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