Iceland volcano: How big could eruption be and will it produce another huge ash cloud?
Iceland is bracing for a volcanic eruption in the coming days after a series of earthquakes and evidence of hot magma flowing quickly underground.
The fishing town of Grindavik, home to 3,000 people, has been ordered to evacuate amid concerns it could be destroyed by lava flows.
Sky News takes a look at some of the key questions about the volcano and what could happen if there is an eruption.
Where is the volcano?
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has said there is a “considerable” risk of an eruption on or just off the Reykjanes peninsula.
Located southwest of the capital Reykjavik, the peninsula is a volcanic and seismic hotspot.
The town of Grindavik is very close to a new 15km (9 miles) fracture that has opened up, prompting the evacuation.
Will there be an eruption?
Even though earthquake activity died down a little overnight into Monday, an eruption in the next few days is still “highly likely”, according to Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London.
Modelling suggests that magma is rising along the fracture and is now as close to the surface as 800m or even less.
What is also uncertain is where exactly along the fracture the eruption will start.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Tectonic activity damages road in Grindavik, Iceland
Professor McGuire said: “If it is on land, which is most likely, it will be dominated by spectacular lava ‘fountaining’ and the production of lava flows.
“If magma breaks the surface at the southern end of the fracture, however, it could erupt beneath the sea. This would be a more explosive event that would build a cone of fragmental material.”
Professor McGuire said there was no reason, currently, to think that the eruption will be especially large, but added that it is notoriously difficult to forecast how big eruptions will be.
Lava spurts and flows after the eruption of a volcano in the Reykjanes Peninsula in July 2023
What happens if the volcano erupts under the sea?
If the eruption occurs in the stretch of fracture that is under the sea, it could become “explosive”, says Dr Michele Paulatto, an expert in volcanic and tectonic processes from Imperial College London.
“If it erupts undersea it could cause a Surtseyan eruption similar to the one that happened in 1963, also in Iceland, and created the island of Surtsey.
“That particular eruption lasted several years, so this is a possibility,” he said.
Will there be another ash cloud like in 2010?
The Eyjafjallajokull eruption back in 2010 produced a huge ash cloud that caused chaos to global air travel.
Dr Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist with the University of Lancaster, says a potential eruption will not lead to disruption like that of Eyjafjallajokull.
He said that event was “unusually disruptive” because of a rare “if not unique” combination of factors.
He added: “The volcanoes on the Reykjanes Peninsula do not have the ability to produce the disruptive ash clouds that characterised the Eyjafjallajokull 2010 eruption.”
What’s more, he says, lessons have been learned since the 2010 incident and even if a future event produced a similar ash cloud there would only be about one-third of the flight cancellations compared to what occurred in 2010.
Two people have died and more than one million people evacuated after a storm bearing down on the Philippines intensified into a super typhoon and made landfall on Sunday.
Fung-wong started battering eastern and central parts of the country, causing power outages, and forcing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to declare a state of emergency.
One person drowned in Catanduanes and firefighters recovered the body of a woman trapped under the debris of a collapsed home in Catbalogan City, officials said.
A satellite image shows Storm Fung-wong, which has intensified into a super typhoon. Pic: CSU/CIRA & JMA/JAXA/Handout via Reuters
A man walks in the rain with an umbrella as Typhoon Fung-wong approaches, in Cauayan, Isabela, Philippines. Pic: Reuters
Evacuations under way in Quezon province. Pic: Philippine Coast Guard via AP
An evacuation centre in Manila. Pic: Reuters
Packing sustained winds of 115mph and gusts of up to 140mph, Super Typhoon Fung-wong made landfall in Aurora province in central Luzon.
Those living in high-risk villages in northeastern provinces were told to evacuate, including in Bicol, a coastal region vulnerable to Pacific cyclones and mudflows from Mayon, one of the country’s most active volcanoes.
Defence secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr warned Fung-wong could affect a vast expanse of the country, including the capital Manila, and Cebu, the central province hit hardest by the deadly Typhoon Kalmaegi just days ago.
More than 200 people were killed in the earlier typhoon, and around 100 are still missing.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Filipinos stranded on roofs amid Typhoon floods
Mr Teodoro Jr urged residents to heed evacuation orders, warning refusing to comply was dangerous and unlawful.
“We ask people to pre-emptively evacuate so that we don’t end up having to conduct rescues at the last minute, which could put the lives of police, soldiers, firefighters and coast guard personnel at risk,” he said in a public address.
More than 30 million people could be exposed to hazards posed by Fung-wong, the Office of Civil Defence said.
The projection of the route that will be taken by Super Typhoon Fung-wong by Japan’s national weather agency. Pic: JMA
In Isabela in northern Luzon, dozens of families were sheltering at a basketball court repurposed as an evacuation centre.
“We’re scared,” said Christopher Sanchez, 50, who fled his home with his family. “We’re here with our grandchildren and our kids. The whole family is in the evacuation area.”
Nearly 400 domestic and international flights have been cancelled, according to the civil aviation regulator.
Read more from Sky News:
Ghislaine Maxwell’s emails from jail leaked
The Amazonians who don’t care who Trump is
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Deadly tornado tears through southern Brazil
Deadly tornado in Brazil
Meanwhile, a powerful tornado ripped through the southern state of Parana in Brazil – killing at least six and injuring more than 750 people, state officials said on Saturday.
The tornado left a trail of destruction, downing trees, overturning vehicles and damaging buildings.
Roads were also blocked and power lines damaged, with authorities saying around 1,000 people were displaced,
“We will continue to assist the people of Parana and provide all the help needed,” President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wrote on X.
The UK is deploying a specialist Royal Air Force team to help defend Belgium’s skies following a series of sightings of “rogue” drones, the defence secretary and his military chief have revealed.
The ground-based unit will be equipped with kit that can track and take down unmanned aerial systems.
It is not yet clear who is responsible for the drone incursions, which forced the country’s main airport near Brussels to close temporarily and have also impacted Belgian military bases.
However, there are suspicions that they could be linked to Russia.
Other NATO nations have also experienced similar problems, including Denmark and Germany.
Ukraine war latest: Lavrov ‘ready’ to meet US’s Rubio
Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, speaking to Trevor Phillips on Sky News, said his Belgian counterpart had called him to request British support.
Queen Camilla looks at counter-drone equipment during a visit to RAF Leeming, Northallerton, in September 2024. Pic: PA
“I had my Belgian opposite number – the chief of the defence staff – in touch with me this week, seeking our help to track and potentially defeat the drones,” he said.
“We agreed with the defence secretary on Friday that we would send our people and our equipment into Belgium to help them with the current problem they have got there.”
Read more from Sky News:
Ghislaine Maxwell’s emails from minimum-security jail leaked
Southport victims ‘failed at every possible turn’
Queen Camilla, who is an honorary air commodore, inspects counter-drone equipment. Pic: PA
John Healey, the defence secretary, said: “When our NATO allies call, we step up. Belgium requested urgent support to counter rogue drone activity at their military bases, so I’ve directed a small team of RAF specialists to deploy immediately.
“As hybrid threats grow, our strength lies in our alliances and our collective resolve to defend, deter and protect our critical infrastructure and airspace.”
The RAF team is trained and equipped to combat drones.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024