Pace of wage increases slows but unemployment rate unchanged

Published

1 year ago

November 14, 2023

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The pace of wage growth has eased back from a record level, according to official figures that showed a resilient labour market despite the stalling economy.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that average wages excluding bonuses were 7.7% higher than a year earlier in the three months to September.

That was down from the revised 7.9% level registered last month but meant that wages were still rising by 1% after taking the rate of inflation into account.

The ONS said it was the highest rate for real wage growth for two years though economists declared that the data was a clear sign that wage growth was slowing – raising the chance of an earlier than expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England next year.

The easing in the headline wage figure, while slight, will be welcomed by rate-setters who see high pay growth as an inflationary threat.

That is because improved spending power tends to boost demand, and therefore price growth.

The Bank has twice held off on a further interest rate rise since September due to evidence its 14 consecutive hikes, aimed at taming the pace of price increases, is having the desired effect.

The employment data, though, is complicated by the fact that it currently comes with a big health warning.

The ONS is working hard to bolster participation rates for its Labour Force Survey, which is the backbone of the employment figures.

Falling response volumes have knocked the perceived accuracy of the estimates.

The ONS has responded with a series of measures including the return of in-home interviews and re-contacting households that fail to respond.

The problems mean that for a second successive month, the report is incomplete.

It is a crucial tool for providing an overview of the UK labour market and forms a big part of decision making at the Bank of England when deciding interest rate levels.

The decline in the wage figure was mainly explained by one-off payments to NHS staff, made in June, falling out of the calculations.

At 7.7%, it remains above the rate of inflation though that is widely tipped to fall dramatically when the figures covering the year to October are released on Wednesday.

Economists polled by the Reuters news agency see the consumer prices index (CPI) measure easing to 4.8% from the current level of 6.7%.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Much slower wage growth is increasing the chances of a rate cut in H1 (first half) 2024.”

He explained: “Month-to-month growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses slowed to 0.24% in September – or 2.9% on an annualised basis – well below the 0.64% average increase in the first eight months of 2023.

“September’s pace is broadly consistent with the 2% inflation target, given trend productivity growth of almost 1%.

“What’s more, the month-to-month change was boosted by sharp increases in pay in the public sector; private-sector wages rose by just 0.13%, or 1.6% on an annualised basis.”

The wider ONS figures showed the UK’s unemployment rate remained static at 4.2% despite the stalling economy – hurt by the Bank’s action to raise borrowing costs.

Darren Morgan, ONS director of economic statistics, said: “Our labour market figures show a largely unchanged picture, with the proportions of people who are employed, unemployed or who are neither working nor looking for a job all little changed on the previous quarter.

“The number of job vacancies fell for the 16th straight month. Nevertheless, vacancies still remain well above their pre-pandemic levels.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt. responded: “It’s heartening to see inflation falling and real wages growing, keeping more money in people’s pockets.

“Building on the labour market reforms in Spring, the Autumn Statement will set out my plans to get people back into work and deliver growth for the UK.”

UK

Greater Manchester Police makes ‘improvements’ in treatment of women including new rules on strip searches – but questions remain after Sky News investigation

Published

4 hours ago

November 18, 2024

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Greater Manchester Police makes 'improvements' in treatment of women including new rules on strip searches - but questions remain after Sky News investigation

Greater Manchester Police (GMP) says it has made wide-ranging changes to the treatment of women in custody, following a Sky News investigation.

This includes ending the use of police strip searches for “welfare” purposes and ensuring it is a “last resort” when looking for concealed items.

A Sky News investigation in 2023 into the custody practices of GMP led to an inquiry by former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird.

In July 2024, the report found “horror stories” of police making “unlawful” arrests and unnecessary strip searches, sometimes to victims of domestic violence or sexual assault.

A report today by the Greater Manchester mayor’s office welcomes the introduction of new measures including additional training for police officers dealing with domestic violence victims.

However, many victims are unconvinced. One such is Sophie, not her real name, telling her story for the first time.

She tells Sky News that even after the Baird Inquiry found her arrest was “unlawful” and the chief inspector called her treatment “appalling”, the police complaints department subsequently described the arrest as “acceptable”.

Sophie’s experience was investigated by Dame Vera alongside other women who Sky News spoke to last year.

She was arrested at 3am in the summer of 2022, and detained for 11 hours following a trivial complaint made by her ex-partner. Her accuser was designated by the police as a highly violent, domestic abuse perpetrator.

Even so, Sophie was arrested at her home in the middle of the night after her abuser alleged she had broken his car wing mirror, 14 months previously, and that she had bruised his arms on an occasion when he had strangled her.

‘They knew what I was trying to protect myself from’

The man making the allegation was someone who had punched, strangled, pressed his thumbs into Sophie’s eyes and locked her up in the house.

Sophie told Sky News: “He’s got a history of domestic violence; he’s got a history of being incarcerated. They knew what I’d gone through, they knew what I was trying to protect myself from.

“I was in contact regularly with domestic violence support workers who were meeting with police liaison officers. They knew that I had the locks changed. They knew I had an alert on the house and my phone.”

Sophie describes the police arrest as “an extension of his coercion”. She later refused to accept a police caution and was charged with the offence of damaging a wing mirror before a judge threw the case out saying it was not in the public interest.

At a press conference in July this year, Dame Vera said: “I tell you ladies and gentlemen, if someone tried to strangle me, I’d probably bruise his arms as well.”

She said the arresting officers had “locked away their brains” and criticised the custody sergeant who had logged his justification for the arrest as “to protect a vulnerable person”, in reference to the violent man.

A series of ‘failures’

At that time, GMP Chief Constable Stephen Watson said he was “appalled” by Sophie’s treatment.

He told Sky News: “It’s a systemic failure, a leadership failure, a process failure. I do think in individual circumstances it may be a failure of experience.”

And yet, one month after this, the police complaints department wrote to tell Sophie “there were sufficient grounds for your arrest”. The letter told her: “The service provided by the police was acceptable.”

Only after Sophie revealed that her case was part of the Baird Inquiry did the police retract these findings.

In a statement, GMP told Sky News: “The outcome Sophie was provided was incorrect. Having reviewed the handling of the complaint, our head of professional standards gave Sophie a personal apology and we are ensuring there is a full reinvestigation.

“Complaints relating to the Baird review – including Sophie’s – are subject to a fair and thorough examination, without fear or favour, by our Professional Standards Directorate.

“Where an investigation finds there to be a case to answer, we will ensure officers face disciplinary proceedings.

‘1,500 more domestic abuse survivors now getting justice’

“We are working hard to ensure that the people of Greater Manchester – particularly women and girls – can have confidence in their police force. This includes providing trauma-informed training for officers and getting better outcomes for victims – with 1,500 more domestic abuse survivors now getting justice compared to three years ago.

“Our communities can have confidence that the force is robust in maintaining good order and discipline. Those not fit to serve are being removed from GMP with more than 100 officers dismissed on the Chief Constable’s watch.”

However, Sky News has been told that most complaints relating to the Baird Inquiry are subject to ongoing investigation and, so far, no officers have been disciplined or dismissed.

In response to the Baird Inquiry, GMP now has a dedicated female welfare officer in its custody suites and is soon to introduce a new independent oversight panel to scrutinise arrests.

According to the mayor’s office, 24 of the 26 recommendations from the inquiry have been implemented.

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said: “This is a landmark moment in our quest to improve the safety and treatment of women across Greater Manchester.

“It is clear that there is still progress to be made. The deputy mayor and I will continue to hold up a mirror to unacceptable practices wherever we find them.”

Deputy mayor Kate Green added: “While the implementation of these recommendations to date is welcome, it is essential that the improvements brought about are maintained and indeed built upon, and on behalf of the mayor I will continue to scrutinise GMP as it makes progress in these areas.”

However, Sophie feels let down and says if she was in an abusive relationship again, she would think twice about going to the police.

“I wouldn’t just be OK with reporting something now, I would look at the consequences of me doing that, and what could happen as a result of me doing that, and how they would treat me,” she said.

“It’s going to take me longer to get over what happened to me that night in being arrested and being locked up than getting over being slapped or punched.”

Former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham will be speaking to Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast from 7.30am this morning.

UK

Harshita Brella: International manhunt under way for husband after woman’s body found in car boot

Published

10 hours ago

November 17, 2024

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Harshita Brella: International manhunt under way for husband after woman's body found in car boot

An international manhunt is under way for the husband of a murdered woman, whose body was found in the boot of a car.

The body of Harshita Brella was found in east London on Thursday, tens of miles away from her home in Corby.

On Sunday, Northamptonshire Police said they were looking for Pankaj Lamba – who they believe has left the country.

Sky News understands she had been under the protection of a court order designed for victims of domestic abuse.

“Our inquiries lead us to suspect that Harshita was murdered in Northamptonshire earlier this month by her husband Pankaj Lamba,” said chief inspector Paul Cash.

“We suspect Lamba transported Harshita’s body from Northamptonshire to Ilford by car.”

“Fast track” enquires were made after the force was contacted on Wednesday by someone concerned about Ms Brella’s welfare. After she failed to answer the door at her home in Skegness Walk, Corby, a missing person investigation was launched.

Her body was found inside the boot of a vehicle on Brisbane Road, Ilford, in the early hours of Thursday morning.

A post mortem – conducted at Leicester Royal Infirmary on Friday – established she had been murdered.

More than 60 detectives are working on the case, with lines of enquiry including going house to house and property searches, as well as looking at CCTV and ANPR.

“We are of course continuing to appeal for any information that will help us piece together exactly what happened as we work to get justice for Harshita,” said chief inspector Cash.

“I urge anyone listening to or reading this statement, that if you saw anything suspicious in the past week or have any information, no matter how small, please contact us. We would always rather receive well-meaning information that turns out to be nothing as opposed to not receiving it all.”

Force referred to police watchdog

On Saturday, Northamptonshire Police said it had made a mandatory referral to the Independent Office for Police Conduct due to previous contact between the force and the victim.

Northamptonshire Police previously said officers had been conducting investigations at three locations: Skegness Walk and Sturton Walk in Corby and Brisbane Road, Ilford, where Ms Brella’s body was found.

East Midlands Special Operations Major Crime Unit (EMSOU) and Northamptonshire Police said they were working “around the clock to establish the circumstances behind her death, including the exact location and timeframe in which it took place”.

UK

King Richard III given Yorkshire accent using state-of-the-art technology

Published

10 hours ago

November 17, 2024

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King Richard III given Yorkshire accent using state-of-the-art technology

State-of-the-art technology has been used to create a voice for King Richard III – giving him a Yorkshire accent.

A digital avatar of the medieval king’s head went on display in front of excited history fans at York Theatre Royal.

Richard III was king of England from 1483 until his death at the Battle of Bosworth in 1485, at the age of 32.

His remains were found in a car park in Leicester in 2012 by historian Philippa Langley.

Speaking about the recreation, she said: “We’ve got leading experts in their fields who have been working on this for 10 years and so everything has been meticulously researched, meticulously evidenced, so you are seeing the most accurate portrayal of Richard III”.

A team based at Face Lab at Liverpool John Moores University created the avatar based on the reconstruction of Richard III’s head with the help of a craniofacial expert.

Experts from various fields helped put the pieces of the puzzle together, including speech and language therapy, dentistry, forensic psychology and archaeology.

His voice has been created by Professor David Crystal, a leading linguist in 15th-century pronunciation. He admitted that it’s impossible to know exactly how he spoke, but this is as close as they will get.

The king was born in Northampton but spent a lot of his life in Yorkshire. His parents were also from the north of England.

Vocal coach Yvonne Morley-Chisholm spent a decade researching how the monarch would have sounded. She worked with the actor Thomas Dennis who was chosen as his body and face were such a good physical match.

Speaking to Sky News, she said people will be shocked at how different he sounded compared with traditional portrayals of the king on stage and screen.

The coach and actor also examined the king’s letters and diary so that “as you pronounced a word that’s how you would write it”.

The voice shows the change in pronunciation over the centuries – from regional variations to the Queen’s English.

History fans at the unveiling were delighted with the accent, with one telling Sky News: “Northerners are known to be happy, positive, all those lovely qualities.”

Born in Northampton but a northerner through and through, technology has brought the king’s speech back to life