In 1645, the stronghold of Caerphilly’s famous medieval castle was besieged and captured by the forces of Oliver Cromwell.

And as the polls closed at 10pm after a bruising by-election battle, the Labour stronghold of Caerphilly was in grave danger of being captured by the forces of Nigel Farage and Reform UK in 2025.

Famous for the three Cs of coal, cheese and its castle, Caerphilly has been represented at Westminster by Labour MPs for more than a century and in Cardiff since 1999, when the Welsh Assembly was created.

That’s about to change. Labour’s vote – once as impregnable as the castle – has crumbled like Caerphilly cheese, and the Tories, Lib Dems and Green Party are nowhere.

But Reform’s UK hopes of a famous victory in Caerphilly could be dashed by another political party hopeful of making a huge breakthrough in Wales, Plaid Cymru, second to Labour in last year’s general election and in every election for the Senedd since devolution.

As he arrived at the count at Caerphilly Leisure Centre shortly before the polls closed, Plaid Cymru’s veteran candidate, Lindsay Whittle, 72, was remarkably cheerful. Asked if he was going to win, he declared, punching the air: “I certainly hope so!”

An opinion poll in the constituency last week put support for Reform UK at 42%, Plaid Cymru 38%, Labour a dismal 12%, the Conservatives in lost deposit territory at 4%, along with the Greens at 3% and the Lib Dems barely registering at 1%.

Unlike Cromwell’s forces, who arrived in Caerphilly on horseback nearly 400 years ago, Mr Farage galloped into the constituency on polling day in a fast car, in what was his third visit of the by-election campaign to the constituency.

A victory for Mr Farage’s candidate, 30-year-old Llyr Powell, would leave Reform UK on the road to further triumphs and have an impact on UK politics far beyond the Welsh Valleys. It would be a pointer to massive Reform UK gains in local, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.

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It would turn the mood of Labour MPs from its current gloom and trepidation into blind panic and would convince them – if they were not convinced already – that Mr Farage is on the march to Downing Street and many of the 2024 Labour intake will lose their seats at the next general election.

But let’s not rule out a Plaid victory. That would send shockwaves throughout Wales and be seen as a clear signal that Labour’s 26-year dominance of the Welsh government is about to come to an undignified end.

The only certainties tonight are humiliation for Labour and near-wipeout for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

The only uncertainty is whether it’s Reform UK or Plaid Cymru whose troops – like Cromwell’s in 1645 – capture Labour’s Caerphilly stronghold.

The head teacher of the Southport attacker’s former school has told a public inquiry she felt like he was “building up to something”.

Joanne Hodson, head of The Acorns School in Ormskirk, said she had a “visceral sense of dread” that he would do something.

“I felt like something was going to happen and there was a level of agitation with direct challenges to staff, the way he was with other pupils. I felt like every day it was building and building and building,” she told the inquiry at Liverpool Town Hall.

Axel Rudakubana, then aged 17, killed six-year-old Bebe King, seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe, and nine-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar and attempted to murder 10 others at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class in Southport on 29 July last year.

He was later jailed for a minimum of 52 years.

Rudakubana, referred to during the public inquiry as AR, came to Ms Hodson’s school after he was permanently excluded from the Range High School, in Formby, due to taking knives to school in October 2019.

‘Devoid of any remorse’

Ms Hodson said she first met Rudakubana at his admissions meeting for the Acorns, when she asked him why he had taken a knife to his former school.

“He looked me in the eyes and said ‘to use it’. This is the only time in my career that a pupil has said this to me or behaved in a manner so devoid of any remorse,” she said.

“What also surprised me was that AR’s parents did not flinch at this comment.”

She said the parents saw Rudakubana “as the victim” and believed he had taken the knife to school as a response to being bullied.

His parents thought he was a “good boy” who never did anything wrong and that “any issues were someone else’s fault”, according to Ms Hodson.

Ms Hodson said she had feared Rudakubana was going to “bring something” to the Acorns.

Instead, he returned to the Range in December 2019 to assault another student with a hockey stick while carrying a knife in his bag.

‘Sinister undertone’

Ms Hodson described Rudakubana as the “most unusual” pupil she had experienced during her career, adding in a statement: “There was a sinister undertone and it was difficult to build rapport.

“He had no respect for authority and generally a lack of respect of other pupils and staff. He was insistent that his views alone were correct and everyone else was wrong. There was never any sense of remorse or accountability for his actions.”

In his education, health and care plan, it was noted there were concerns that Rudakubana said or did things which had been described as “sinister”, the inquiry heard.

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Ms Hodson said she was asking other agencies for help, but the word “sinister” was crossed out in the report and changed to “inappropriate” after professional views were submitted by the child and adolescent mental health service (CAMHS).

“I was challenged quite heavily and told no child should ever be described as sinister and as a professional I should not be using those words,” she said.

‘Let down’ by Prevent

Ms Hodson said school staff were concerned about Rudakubana attacking his peers and made three referrals about him to the government’s anti-terror programme Prevent.

The head teacher said staff felt “let down” after their third referral caused in the school’s relationship with Rudakubana and his father, but was not acted on by Prevent.

When Rudakubana made comments thought to be antisemitic in school in January 2022, teachers did not make another referral to Prevent, with Ms Hodson telling the inquiry: “On reflection, whilst I regret not submitting further Prevent referrals in 2022, I think by this point Acorns had lost faith that anything would be done.”

She said staff were concerned about Rudakubana being radicalised, but “he was so socially isolated that I could not conceive of the idea that he might attack a group of strangers, let alone young children”.

“The tragic events are so far removed from what I would have associated AR with in terms of risk,” Ms Hodson said.

The inquiry was adjourned until Monday.

The ringleader behind an arson attack and plot to kidnap a billionaire Russian dissident had been “groomed” by a chatbot, operated by Wagner mercenaries, a court was told.

The Old Bailey heard the fire at an industrial estate in Leyton, East London, on 20 March 2024, caused an estimated £1m of damage, including to vital Starlink satellite equipment destined for Ukraine.

Dylan Earl, 21, a builder and part-time drug dealer who lived with his parents in Elmesthorpe, Leicestershire, has admitted his role in orchestrating the attack by recruiting others to carry it out.

During his trial, the court heard he also tasked two people to burn down an exclusive restaurant and wine dealership in Mayfair and to kidnap Evgeny Chichvarkin, the billionaire owner.

However, Paul Hynes KC, defending, told a sentencing hearing on Thursday that the Russians were “trash fishing” using a Russian language chatbot called PrivetBot on the encrypted Telegram platform and Earl was “easy meat”.

“Our prime submission is that he is, or was at the time, a sad individual who sat for lengthy periods alone in his bedroom at his parents’ house.

“His minimalist existence was taking drugs, particularly cannabis and involving himself in online gaming.

“We do not seek to characterise Dylan Earl as a victim in this case but there are vulnerable elements in him that were used by PrivetBot, acting on behalf of the Wagner Group, as a proxy for the Russian Federation.”

In April 2024, PrivetBot messaged Earl. His replies had been deleted, but the Wagner contact said: “I see that you know what you want. It’s a great happiness that you have realised so early that you are a WARRIOR. We need your connections and your capabilities.”

Mr Hynes told the judge, Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb, Earl was “very much a sad individual” who “had a certain detachment from reality” and “sought praise, importance and significance”.

“The potent effect of the messaging is shown in his desperate, pathetic and delusional responses,” he added.

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Earl messaged the contact, offering to recruit thousands more to join their operation and boasting of his underworld contacts.

“If you need connections with IRA, I can sort it. You want criminal connections with murderers, kidnappers, soldiers, drug dealers, fraudsters, car thieves, I can sort it all,” Earl wrote.

But the court heard Earl never left his bedroom and never met the people he recruited.

Earl and five other men are being sentenced for their part in the Russian-ordered arson attack on behalf of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary company, which is proscribed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.

The Kremlin denies accusations that it is involved in any such acts of sabotage.

The men will be sentenced on Friday.