With US-China relations on a tightrope, Biden and Xi’s rendezvous is more important than ever
It has been a year since President Xi and President Biden last met, and it’s hard to overstate just what a rollercoaster US-China relations have been on since then.
The fact this meeting is happening at all is the result of months of delicate planning.
But for all the “tough-line”, “hard-man” images that both men try to broadcast domestically, there is a mutual recognition of one key fact: it would cost more, both politically and economically, to allow relations to spiral.
Why now?
It was just nine months ago that US-China relations hit what felt like rock bottom as the so-called Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US, plunging their diplomacy into crisis.
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Moment ‘spy balloon’ is shot down
The vast backdrop of disagreements from Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, the Ukraine war, tech controls and economic sanctions meant the relationship felt as precarious and as dangerous as it had in decades.
But the summer has seen a blitz of diplomatic efforts to try to repair things, with multiple meetings of officials at various levels.
Both sides know the window for progress is narrow.
Come next year, Taiwan’s presidential election will likely inflame tensions, and then the inevitable anti-China sentiment that will accompany the US election cycle will no doubt make things worse.
The time to play statesmen and to push for their interests is now!
What do they want?
Don’t be under any illusion, both Biden and Xi are coming to this table with immense amounts of scepticism about the other’s intentions.
Any meaningful breakthrough is highly unlikely.
What they both seek is a degree of what’s being called “tactical stabilisation” – a pause in deterioration that will allow each to pursue its interests in a more predictable environment.
On the US side, there is an understanding that only a meeting of the top men will unlock the Chinese system to enable cooperation on some of the “easier” issues like climate change and global health.
There is also a hope that military-to-military talks might be able to restart after being shut down following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan last year.
From China’s perspective, a pause in deterioration gives it the space to continue to build up its economic and military strength to better compete going forward.
The visuals are also important to Xi Jinping domestically.
It has not been a brilliant year for him, with a chaotic end to his hated zero COVID policy, a faltering economy and deteriorating relations with multiple western countries. Being seen to be able to manage this crucial relationship is important to casting himself as a competent statesman.
So what will they discuss?
There are so many disagreements likely to be raised, but these are the top three on the list:
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China and US meet to ease tensions
Territorial claims and military tension
Perhaps top of the long list of issues between them is China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in contested areas that it claims as its own.
Most prominent is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Xi has expressed multiple times his desire to “reunify” Taiwan, Biden has promised to defend it.
The other arena where tensions are rising is the South China Sea.
China claims the vast majority as its international waters, despite rival claims from the Philippines and others. In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines.
However, in recent months there have been frequent confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels, and here too the US has reiterated its commitment to support the Philippines.
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Boats from China and Philippines collide
The US claims that in both areas China’s behaviour is becoming increasingly aggressive and, in some cases dangerous. It has released videos of Chinese jets flying hair-raisingly close to US ones, in one recent case, just 10ft away.
The Americans say the risk of accidents and escalation is grave.
China, for its part, says that it is US conduct that is the dangerous force. It sees American presence in these regions as blatant provocation in its backyard.
These are deeply intractable issues, the best that might be hoped for is some sort of agreement to an offramp for if things ever escalate.
Global conflicts
The two leaders will also discuss the two major ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In both, they have taken a drastically different tact.
When it comes to Ukraine, China has attempted to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker, one of the only nations with the ability to talk to both sides.
The reality, though, is that Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin and has quietly been providing Russia with finance, technology and diplomatic cover.
Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, it has called for a ceasefire and peace, but it has stopped short of directly condemning Hamas for the 7 October atrocities and state media has taken a decidedly pro-Palestinian tone.
In both cases, China’s approach is in stark opposition to America’s, and it has criticised its rival for its full-throated support for both Israel and Ukraine and the supply of military assistance.
At root, both have an interest in the other not gaining advantage or influence off the back of the outcomes of these conflicts.
Tech and economic sanctions
There is still a raft of restrictions on technology and economic sanctions that exist between them.
Just in the last month, new ones have been announced on both sides, with China restricting US access to graphite (a crucial component in making batteries) and the US further restricting Chinese access to semiconductors.
The aim on both sides is to hinder the other’s ability to develop in key areas such as AI. But this trade war hurts them both as they remain major trading partners and the two economies are highly reliant on each other.
Xi in particular has a need to mitigate these issues.
Amidst a flagging economy, he is trying to woo foreign investment back to China and is expected to meet with US business leaders while in San Francisco.
A smooth summit might help him stave off, at least temporarily, more US restrictions and it may help shore up the confidence of some foreign businesses spooked by the imposition of state-centric restrictions and raids on a handful of China-based US businesses.
World
It’s a stunning shift in US policy – but Biden’s announcement will trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow
Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv and will almost certainly prompt the UK to follow suit.
But the stunning shift in US policy – just weeks before Donald Trump takes over as US president – will also trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future course of its war.
President Vladimir Putin has warned the West they would be playing with fire if they allowed Ukrainian forces to launch Western-supplied cruise and ballistic missiles at Russia, saying it could even trigger a global conflict.
British and US officials, though, have repeatedly advised their respective capitals not to be intimidated by Moscow’s sabre rattling.
Ukraine war latest: Biden lifts ban on Russia strikes
Yet there has been hesitancy, particularly in Washington, over the unleashing of US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles beyond the borders of Ukraine.
However, it seems that a move by North Korea to send thousands of its troops to fight with Russia has changed US calculations.
The New York Times, which was among the US media organisations to break news of the Biden administration’s decision on long-range missiles, reported that the first time the American weapons will be used inside Russia will likely be against Russian and North Korean troops battling a Ukrainian incursion in the Russian region of Kursk.
While a significant step up in support for Ukraine, the ability to use American long-range missiles inside Russia is not a war-winning development.
But it does expand Kyiv’s capacity to hit important military targets deliberately positioned by Russian commanders far back from the frontline. This includes stockpiles of missiles, drones and other ammunition used to strike Ukraine.
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Biden lifts ban on Russia strikes
Just as important as the military impact, though, is the political signal that the US decision sends to the Kremlin about Washington’s willingness to defy Russian warnings about dire consequences should Mr Biden dare to grant Ukraine the permission it’s so long been seeking.
The dramatic move by the United States comes after months of lobbying by Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A key thing to watch now will be how Mr Putin reacts the first time an American missile kills Russian soldiers on Russian soil.
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The city where schools go underground
Moscow does not want a direct war with the United States and NATO – nuclear-armed forces with far greater combined firepower – but the Kremlin could well ramp up an already heightened campaign of sabotage and other forms of hybrid warfare across Europe.
Another important reaction to track will be how Mr Trump responds to Mr Biden’s move and whether he continues to allow Ukraine this permission once he takes over as the US commander-in-chief.
The president-elect has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine quickly but he has not said how. Yet he has voiced fierce opposition to the continued gifting of vast quantities of American weapons to the Ukrainian military.
Several people have been killed after Russia launched its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since August.
More than 200 missiles and drones were deployed, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, as he condemned a “massive combined strike” on “all regions”.
Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said “peaceful cities” and “sleeping civilians” were targeted.
Moscow is focused on the “energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine” and is trying to intimidate Ukrainians with “cold and lack of light”, Mr Zelenskyy said.
The president added: “The whole world sees and knows that we are defending ourselves against absolute evil, which does not understand any language but force.
“We need unity [and] the world needs unity. Only together can we stop this evil.”
A firefighter at the site of a Russian drone strike in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. Pic: State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Reuters
Two people were killed and a 17-year-old boy was injured after a Russian attack in the Black Sea port of Odesa, regional governor Oleh Kiper said.
Energy infrastructure was damaged, he said, leading to “interruptions in the supply of heat, water and electricity”.
In Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine, officials said two people were killed in a Russian drone attack.
Ukraine’s state emergency service said a multi-storey building, cars and a shopping centre were hit.
Two women were killed and six injured, including two children, it added.
In the central Dnipro region, two people died and three were wounded in a strike on a rail depot, while in Lviv, on the border with Poland, a woman was killed in a car.
Emergency services remove part of a Russian missile from an apartment building in Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
In the capital, Kyiv, mayor Vitali Klitschko said Russian attacks had caused a fire to erupt on the roof of a residential building, injuring at least two people.
People took refuge in metro stations, while emergency services were pictured removing part of a Russian missile from an apartment block.
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The Ukrainian military said it had destroyed 102 missiles and 42 drones launched by Russia.
Hypersonic missiles were among the 120 fired at Ukrainian territory, it said.
Air defences were active in “almost all” regions of Ukraine.
Equipment at thermal power stations has been “seriously damaged” during Russian air strikes, Ukraine’s largest private energy provider said. DTEK said its staff were working on repairs.
People sheltering in a metro station in Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
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Schools go underground to keep life as normal as possible
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Russia’s defence ministry confirmed it had attacked energy resources supporting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, Russian news agencies reported.
Poland scrambled its air force early on Sunday because of the “massive attack by the Russian Federation using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles”.
Mr Zelenskyy sent his condolences to anyone affected by the latest Russian attacks.
He said “all necessary forces” were involved in restoring power and facilities.
On Tuesday, it will be 1,000 days since Russia launched what it calls its “special military operation”.
World
Under siege in Ukraine, schools go underground to keep life as normal as possible for children
If you know a teacher, or you are a teacher, you’ll understand that many in the profession consider their jobs one of the best in the world, while also acknowledging it can be one of the most stressful.
Teaching in a war zone takes it to another level on both fronts.
But imagine teaching in a war zone in say the London Underground or the Paris or New York metros?
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Well, that’s exactly what is happening in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city – a city attacked by Russia on a constant basis.
In 2023, the authorities banned children from being taught in regular school buildings here because of the threat they were under from missile strikes.
So Kharkiv city and its education department started working on a plan.
That plan has concluded with the construction of six schools in six metro stations, teaching 4,800 children daily whose families haven’t fled the war.
Intrigued by this new educational experiment, as it’s still considered, we were told to meet at the University metro station in the centre of the city and wait to be taken to the school.
Soviet-era metro stations, and particularly the platforms, are universally grand and ornate, although Ukraine’s are slightly more modest.
A young child at his desk in the underground school
The school (left) and the metro system (right)
Pedestrian walkways though are always crammed with florists, newspaper stands, mobile phone shops and cafes, and Kharkiv’s are no different.
What is different though is that next to the main platform entrance, an adjacent passageway has been sealed off by a white wall with three doors built into it.
We were ushered inside, past a guard and into a concourse with two desks.
Inside the classrooms in a city under siege
The classrooms are brightly decorated to try and maintain morale for the children
In front of us, we could see a wide staircase leading to a long corridor. Above us, large, shiny silver metal tubes stretched into the distance, pumping in air from above ground.
Lining the corridor, we could see a series of white interconnecting cabins, all brightly lit, and from them, we could hear the sounds of children laughing, music, and teachers conducting class in this strange subterranean school.
Perhaps the only school in the world with one corridor.
A door to one of the classes opened, and in pairs, a class of six and seven-year-olds emerged – their teacher at the front and an assistant at the rear.
They’re heading to the bathroom for a toilet break, the staff must keep an eye on them.
If any of the children were to make it out of the school, they could easily get lost in the underground system.
The pupils are spread across seven classrooms with a mix of yellow and green desks and chairs, and walls decorated with bright pictures like rainbows, sunshine and sunflowers, to try to create a cheery atmosphere.
“At first, the children were bewildered by studying here, it felt unfamiliar to them, but interacting with each other and with their teachers helped them to adapt,” Iryna Tarasenko from Kharkiv’s education department told me.
Iryna Tarasenko from Kharkiv’s education department
Sky News’ Stuart Ramsay and Kharkiv education official Iryna Tarasenko
Iryna is showing me around the school. They feel it’s their way of contributing to the war effort.
She said: “In the summer of 2023, the Defence Council didn’t permit children to study in regular school buildings, so, we had to find a solution. This is our frontline – our educational frontline.”
There are of course health concerns for both the teachers and the pupils spending so much time underground, so medical examinations are done on a regular basis.
It is an opportunity for doctors and behavioural specialists to monitor the effects of this war on them.
Dmytro Mitelyov is the neurologist on duty monitoring the children’s behaviour, checking for any signs of stress – physical and mental.
He gently asks each child how they’re feeling, and asks if they have any aches and pains.
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Neurologist Dmytro Mitelyov (centre) monitors children as they spend large parts of their days underground
“These are children who haven’t left Kharkiv since the war began, they live in a constant state of stress, multifaceted stress caused by a range of factors. They are exposed to things they see and hear, like alarms, explosions, and they feel it all,” Dmytro told me.
“When these children grow older, all the trauma they’ve endured during their formative years can, unfortunately, leave a lasting and serious imprint on their mental health. They haven’t had a healthy, carefree childhood – the kind where they can learn, play, and feel safe as children normally would.”
As the first group’s school day ends, children from one of Kharkiv’s most bombed districts, wrap up warm before being led to the surface to catch a school bus to their old school – which was hit by a missile.
It’s still where they meet their parents for normal pick-up.
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Students eating in their classrooms in Kharkiv’s metro system
We jump on the bus with them for the journey past destroyed government buildings, shopping centres and restaurants.
When the air raid suddenly sounds, I look around to see how the children and teachers on this bus will react.
They barely flinch it’s so common.
“People have, to some extent, adapted,” one of the headmistresses, Olena Nikolienko, said.
“If we see missiles coming, heaven forbid, we’ll stop near a designated shelter, following our evacuation plan, and that’s where the children will go for cover.”
Headmistress Olena Nikolienko
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Remember, these children are safe underground at school, up here they are not.
During the bus ride, 10-year-old Alisa began quietly sobbing. Her teacher told me her grandfather was killed four months ago on the frontline, and since then she has been prone to tears.
Alisa’s teacher comforted her and told her everything would be ok.
It feels like everyone here has to carry their own sadness.
Everyone.
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‘Ukraine war will end sooner under Trump’
Parents, standing in the first snowfall of the season, greet the children as they get off the bus.
The kids run off the bus, and start throwing snowballs at each other, enjoying this precious moment.
It will be the last time they’re outside today.
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