With US-China relations on a tightrope, Biden and Xi’s rendezvous is more important than ever
It has been a year since President Xi and President Biden last met, and it’s hard to overstate just what a rollercoaster US-China relations have been on since then.
The fact this meeting is happening at all is the result of months of delicate planning.
But for all the “tough-line”, “hard-man” images that both men try to broadcast domestically, there is a mutual recognition of one key fact: it would cost more, both politically and economically, to allow relations to spiral.
Why now?
It was just nine months ago that US-China relations hit what felt like rock bottom as the so-called Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US, plunging their diplomacy into crisis.
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Moment ‘spy balloon’ is shot down
The vast backdrop of disagreements from Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, the Ukraine war, tech controls and economic sanctions meant the relationship felt as precarious and as dangerous as it had in decades.
But the summer has seen a blitz of diplomatic efforts to try to repair things, with multiple meetings of officials at various levels.
Both sides know the window for progress is narrow.
Come next year, Taiwan’s presidential election will likely inflame tensions, and then the inevitable anti-China sentiment that will accompany the US election cycle will no doubt make things worse.
The time to play statesmen and to push for their interests is now!
What do they want?
Don’t be under any illusion, both Biden and Xi are coming to this table with immense amounts of scepticism about the other’s intentions.
Any meaningful breakthrough is highly unlikely.
What they both seek is a degree of what’s being called “tactical stabilisation” – a pause in deterioration that will allow each to pursue its interests in a more predictable environment.
On the US side, there is an understanding that only a meeting of the top men will unlock the Chinese system to enable cooperation on some of the “easier” issues like climate change and global health.
There is also a hope that military-to-military talks might be able to restart after being shut down following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan last year.
From China’s perspective, a pause in deterioration gives it the space to continue to build up its economic and military strength to better compete going forward.
The visuals are also important to Xi Jinping domestically.
It has not been a brilliant year for him, with a chaotic end to his hated zero COVID policy, a faltering economy and deteriorating relations with multiple western countries. Being seen to be able to manage this crucial relationship is important to casting himself as a competent statesman.
So what will they discuss?
There are so many disagreements likely to be raised, but these are the top three on the list:
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China and US meet to ease tensions
Territorial claims and military tension
Perhaps top of the long list of issues between them is China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in contested areas that it claims as its own.
Most prominent is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Xi has expressed multiple times his desire to “reunify” Taiwan, Biden has promised to defend it.
The other arena where tensions are rising is the South China Sea.
China claims the vast majority as its international waters, despite rival claims from the Philippines and others. In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines.
However, in recent months there have been frequent confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels, and here too the US has reiterated its commitment to support the Philippines.
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Boats from China and Philippines collide
The US claims that in both areas China’s behaviour is becoming increasingly aggressive and, in some cases dangerous. It has released videos of Chinese jets flying hair-raisingly close to US ones, in one recent case, just 10ft away.
The Americans say the risk of accidents and escalation is grave.
China, for its part, says that it is US conduct that is the dangerous force. It sees American presence in these regions as blatant provocation in its backyard.
These are deeply intractable issues, the best that might be hoped for is some sort of agreement to an offramp for if things ever escalate.
Global conflicts
The two leaders will also discuss the two major ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In both, they have taken a drastically different tact.
When it comes to Ukraine, China has attempted to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker, one of the only nations with the ability to talk to both sides.
The reality, though, is that Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin and has quietly been providing Russia with finance, technology and diplomatic cover.
Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, it has called for a ceasefire and peace, but it has stopped short of directly condemning Hamas for the 7 October atrocities and state media has taken a decidedly pro-Palestinian tone.
In both cases, China’s approach is in stark opposition to America’s, and it has criticised its rival for its full-throated support for both Israel and Ukraine and the supply of military assistance.
At root, both have an interest in the other not gaining advantage or influence off the back of the outcomes of these conflicts.
Tech and economic sanctions
There is still a raft of restrictions on technology and economic sanctions that exist between them.
Just in the last month, new ones have been announced on both sides, with China restricting US access to graphite (a crucial component in making batteries) and the US further restricting Chinese access to semiconductors.
The aim on both sides is to hinder the other’s ability to develop in key areas such as AI. But this trade war hurts them both as they remain major trading partners and the two economies are highly reliant on each other.
Xi in particular has a need to mitigate these issues.
Amidst a flagging economy, he is trying to woo foreign investment back to China and is expected to meet with US business leaders while in San Francisco.
A smooth summit might help him stave off, at least temporarily, more US restrictions and it may help shore up the confidence of some foreign businesses spooked by the imposition of state-centric restrictions and raids on a handful of China-based US businesses.
Pakistan has launched attacks on “multiple targets” across India, according to the media wing of Pakistan’s military.
Pakistan said in a statement that retaliatory attacks are underway in response to what it called “continuous provocation” by India, which fired missiles at three air bases inside Pakistan.
“Multiple targets in this operation are being engaged all across India,” the statement from Pakistan Armed Forces (PAF) said.
Pakistan’s military said it used medium-range Fateh missiles to strike more than 25 military sites, including airbases and weapons depots in the Indian states of Gujarat, Punjab and Rajasthan, as well as locations in India-administered Kashmir.
Pakistan’s military posted footage on X showing missiles being fired from what appeared to be a mobile launcher.
Pic: MilitaryPakISPR
The AP news agency also said loud explosions have been heard in India-administered Kashmir, in the disputed region’s two big cities of Srinagar and Jammu, and the garrison town of Udhampur.
Meanwhile, an Indian military source told Reuters that India has launched air operations in Pakistan, although no further details were given.
The operations mark the latest escalation in a conflict between the two nuclear-armed rivals, triggered by a deadly attack last month in India-administered Kashmir.
Most of the 26 civilians killed were Hindu Indian tourists. India blames Pakistan for backing the assault, an accusation Islamabad rejects.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called a meeting of the National Command Authority, the body which takes security decisions, including those related to the country’s nuclear arsenal.
State-run Pakistan television said three air bases were struck by India on Friday, although Pakistan insisted most of the missiles had been intercepted.
Despite the military offensive, PAF also posted a message on X in what appeared to represent an opportunity to de-escalate the situation.
“Now that a response has been given we hope the neighbour [India] will move to dialogue and diplomacy like Civilized Nations,” it said.
In recent days, both countries have launched a series of missile and drone strikes, although the scale and impact have been consistently questioned by each other.
On Wednesday, India conducted airstrikes on several sites in Pakistani territory. Pakistan said it shot down five Indian fighter jets.
On Thursday, India claimed to have repelled drone and missile attacks at military targets in more than a dozen cities and towns, including Jammu in India-administered Kashmir. Meanwhile, India claimed it struck Pakistan’s air defence systems and radars close to the city of Lahore.
A damaged house in Jammu, in Indian-administered Kashmir, after a Pakistani drone attack. Pic: AP
The Indian army said on Friday that Pakistan fired about 300 to 400 drones, targeting military installations along the western borders – a claim strongly denied by Pakistan.
The G7 group of advanced economies, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and Britain, urged maximum restraint from both India and Pakistan.
“We call for immediate de-escalation and encourage both countries to engage in direct dialogue towards a peaceful outcome,” a statement issued on Friday said.
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World
European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia
Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.
The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Follow latest updates on the Ukraine war
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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