With US-China relations on a tightrope, Biden and Xi’s rendezvous is more important than ever
It has been a year since President Xi and President Biden last met, and it’s hard to overstate just what a rollercoaster US-China relations have been on since then.
The fact this meeting is happening at all is the result of months of delicate planning.
But for all the “tough-line”, “hard-man” images that both men try to broadcast domestically, there is a mutual recognition of one key fact: it would cost more, both politically and economically, to allow relations to spiral.
Why now?
It was just nine months ago that US-China relations hit what felt like rock bottom as the so-called Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US, plunging their diplomacy into crisis.
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Moment ‘spy balloon’ is shot down
The vast backdrop of disagreements from Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, the Ukraine war, tech controls and economic sanctions meant the relationship felt as precarious and as dangerous as it had in decades.
But the summer has seen a blitz of diplomatic efforts to try to repair things, with multiple meetings of officials at various levels.
Both sides know the window for progress is narrow.
Come next year, Taiwan’s presidential election will likely inflame tensions, and then the inevitable anti-China sentiment that will accompany the US election cycle will no doubt make things worse.
The time to play statesmen and to push for their interests is now!
What do they want?
Don’t be under any illusion, both Biden and Xi are coming to this table with immense amounts of scepticism about the other’s intentions.
Any meaningful breakthrough is highly unlikely.
What they both seek is a degree of what’s being called “tactical stabilisation” – a pause in deterioration that will allow each to pursue its interests in a more predictable environment.
On the US side, there is an understanding that only a meeting of the top men will unlock the Chinese system to enable cooperation on some of the “easier” issues like climate change and global health.
There is also a hope that military-to-military talks might be able to restart after being shut down following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan last year.
From China’s perspective, a pause in deterioration gives it the space to continue to build up its economic and military strength to better compete going forward.
The visuals are also important to Xi Jinping domestically.
It has not been a brilliant year for him, with a chaotic end to his hated zero COVID policy, a faltering economy and deteriorating relations with multiple western countries. Being seen to be able to manage this crucial relationship is important to casting himself as a competent statesman.
So what will they discuss?
There are so many disagreements likely to be raised, but these are the top three on the list:
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China and US meet to ease tensions
Territorial claims and military tension
Perhaps top of the long list of issues between them is China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in contested areas that it claims as its own.
Most prominent is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Xi has expressed multiple times his desire to “reunify” Taiwan, Biden has promised to defend it.
The other arena where tensions are rising is the South China Sea.
China claims the vast majority as its international waters, despite rival claims from the Philippines and others. In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines.
However, in recent months there have been frequent confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels, and here too the US has reiterated its commitment to support the Philippines.
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Boats from China and Philippines collide
The US claims that in both areas China’s behaviour is becoming increasingly aggressive and, in some cases dangerous. It has released videos of Chinese jets flying hair-raisingly close to US ones, in one recent case, just 10ft away.
The Americans say the risk of accidents and escalation is grave.
China, for its part, says that it is US conduct that is the dangerous force. It sees American presence in these regions as blatant provocation in its backyard.
These are deeply intractable issues, the best that might be hoped for is some sort of agreement to an offramp for if things ever escalate.
Global conflicts
The two leaders will also discuss the two major ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In both, they have taken a drastically different tact.
When it comes to Ukraine, China has attempted to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker, one of the only nations with the ability to talk to both sides.
The reality, though, is that Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin and has quietly been providing Russia with finance, technology and diplomatic cover.
Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, it has called for a ceasefire and peace, but it has stopped short of directly condemning Hamas for the 7 October atrocities and state media has taken a decidedly pro-Palestinian tone.
In both cases, China’s approach is in stark opposition to America’s, and it has criticised its rival for its full-throated support for both Israel and Ukraine and the supply of military assistance.
At root, both have an interest in the other not gaining advantage or influence off the back of the outcomes of these conflicts.
Tech and economic sanctions
There is still a raft of restrictions on technology and economic sanctions that exist between them.
Just in the last month, new ones have been announced on both sides, with China restricting US access to graphite (a crucial component in making batteries) and the US further restricting Chinese access to semiconductors.
The aim on both sides is to hinder the other’s ability to develop in key areas such as AI. But this trade war hurts them both as they remain major trading partners and the two economies are highly reliant on each other.
Xi in particular has a need to mitigate these issues.
Amidst a flagging economy, he is trying to woo foreign investment back to China and is expected to meet with US business leaders while in San Francisco.
A smooth summit might help him stave off, at least temporarily, more US restrictions and it may help shore up the confidence of some foreign businesses spooked by the imposition of state-centric restrictions and raids on a handful of China-based US businesses.
The UK and US have agreed a trade deal, with Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump confirming the announcement during a live televised phone call.
It is the first trade deal agreed after Mr Trump began his second presidential term in January, and after he imposed strict tariffs on countries around the world in April.
Sir Keir said the “first-of-a-kind” deal with the US will save thousands of jobs across the UK, boost British business and protect British industry.
Politics latest: Trump and Starmer say trade deal just the start
The deal includes:
• Lowering 27.5% tariff on British car exports to the US to 10%, affecting 100,000 vehicles each year
• UK steel and aluminium industries will no longer face any tariffs after they had 25% duties placed on them
• Beef exports allowed both ways
• UK to have “preferential treatment whatever happens in the future” on pharmaceuticals, the president said.
However, there is a still a 10% tariff on most UK goods imported into the US after Mr Trump imposed that duty on most countries’ exports last month.
Mr Trump said the “final details” of the agreement were still being “written up”.
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Watch full call with Trump and Starmer
Trade minister Douglas Alexander told parliament the UK has “committed to further negotiations on tariff reductions”.
MPs will be able to debate the deal and any legislation needed to implement it, he added.
Sir Keir said “this is a really fantastic, historic day” that will “boost trade between and across our countries”, while Mr Trump said the agreement would be a “great deal for both countries”.
The president said the deal will make both the UK and the US “much bigger in terms of trade” as he thanked Sir Keir, who he said has been “terrific for his partnership in this matter…we have a great relationship”.
Sir Keir said it was achieved by not playing politics, and insisted the UK can have good trade relations with both the US and the EU.
Red lines on beef and chicken
The PM said the UK had “red lines” on standards written into the agreement, particularly on agriculture.
Mr Alexander told the Commons: “Let me be clear that the imports of hormone-treated beef or chlorinated chicken will remain illegal.
“The deal we’ve signed today will protect British farmers and uphold our high animal welfare and environmental standards.”
Read more:
UK and India strike ‘historic’ trade deal
Starmer faces rebellion from Labour MPs over welfare reforms
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Sky challenges Trump on trade deal
‘American beef is the safest’
US agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said the deal will “exponentially increase our beef exports”, and added: “To be very clear, American beef is the safest, the best quality, and the crown jewel of American agriculture for the world.”
On whether the UK will have to accept all US beef and chicken, Mr Trump said: “They’ll take what they want, we have plenty of it, we have every type, we have every classification you can have.”
Hinting the US will move towards higher welfare practices, he said US health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr “is doing a tremendous job and he’s probably heading toward your system with no chemical, no this, no that”.
‘A Diet Coke deal’
Previous UK governments have attempted – and failed – to secure a free trade agreement with the US, but Sir Keir had made it a high priority.
Conservative shadow trade secretary Andrew Griffith chastised the deal, saying the UK is still in the same category as Burundi and Bhutan.
“It’s a Diet Coke deal, not the real thing,” he told the Commons.
US
Man accused of harassing Jennifer Aniston for two years before crashing car through gates of her home
Three former police officers in the US have been found not guilty of murder over the death of motorist Tyre Nichols.
Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley and Justin Smith were acquitted by jurors following a nine-day trial at Tennessee state court.
The former Memphis officers were also found not guilty of aggravated assault, aggravated kidnapping, official misconduct and official oppression.
Mr Nichols, a father of one, died three days after officers punched, kicked and hit him with a baton in January 2023 as he was just yards from his home.
The defendants hugged each other after being acquitted of the charges. Pic: Commercial Appeal/USA Today Network/AP
The 29-year-old’s death and a video of the incident – in which he cried out for his mother – sparked outrage in the US including nationwide protests and led to police reform.
Civil rights attorney Ben Crump, who represents Nichols’ family, described the verdicts as a “devastating miscarriage of justice”. In a statement, he added: “The world watched as Tyre Nichols was beaten to death by those sworn to protect and serve.”
Memphis District Attorney Steve Mulroy said he was “surprised that there wasn’t a single guilty verdict on any of the counts” including second-degree murder. He said Mr Nichols’ family “were devastated… I think they were outraged”.
Former police officers Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley, Justin Smith were accused of second-degree murder. Pic: Memphis Police Dept/AP
But despite the three defendants being acquitted of state charges during the trial in Memphis, they still face the prospect of years in prison after they were convicted of federal charges of witness tampering last year.
Two other former officers previously pleaded guilty in both state and federal court. Desmond Mills Jr. gave evidence as a prosecution witness, while Emmitt Martin was blamed for the majority of the violence.
Sentencing for all five officers is pending.
Tyre Nichols’ death sparked street protests in January 2023 in Memphis and across the US. Pic: AP
Video evidence showed Mr Nichols was stopped in his car, yanked from his vehicle, pepper-sprayed and hit with a Taser. He broke free and ran away before the five police officers caught up with him again, and the beating took place.
Prosecutors argued that the officers used excessive, deadly force in trying to handcuff Mr Nichols and were criminally responsible for each others’ actions.
They also said the officers had a duty to intervene and stop the beating and tell medics that Mr Nichols had been hit repeatedly in the head, but they failed to do so.
The trial heard Mr Nichols suffered tears and bleeding in the brain and died from blunt force trauma.
The defence suggested Mr Nichols was on drugs, giving him the strength to fight off five strong officers, and was actively resisting arrest.
In December, the US Justice Department said a 17-month investigation showed the Memphis Police Department uses excessive force and discriminates against Black people.
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