With US-China relations on a tightrope, Biden and Xi’s rendezvous is more important than ever
It has been a year since President Xi and President Biden last met, and it’s hard to overstate just what a rollercoaster US-China relations have been on since then.
The fact this meeting is happening at all is the result of months of delicate planning.
But for all the “tough-line”, “hard-man” images that both men try to broadcast domestically, there is a mutual recognition of one key fact: it would cost more, both politically and economically, to allow relations to spiral.
Why now?
It was just nine months ago that US-China relations hit what felt like rock bottom as the so-called Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US, plunging their diplomacy into crisis.
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Moment ‘spy balloon’ is shot down
The vast backdrop of disagreements from Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, the Ukraine war, tech controls and economic sanctions meant the relationship felt as precarious and as dangerous as it had in decades.
But the summer has seen a blitz of diplomatic efforts to try to repair things, with multiple meetings of officials at various levels.
Both sides know the window for progress is narrow.
Come next year, Taiwan’s presidential election will likely inflame tensions, and then the inevitable anti-China sentiment that will accompany the US election cycle will no doubt make things worse.
The time to play statesmen and to push for their interests is now!
What do they want?
Don’t be under any illusion, both Biden and Xi are coming to this table with immense amounts of scepticism about the other’s intentions.
Any meaningful breakthrough is highly unlikely.
What they both seek is a degree of what’s being called “tactical stabilisation” – a pause in deterioration that will allow each to pursue its interests in a more predictable environment.
On the US side, there is an understanding that only a meeting of the top men will unlock the Chinese system to enable cooperation on some of the “easier” issues like climate change and global health.
There is also a hope that military-to-military talks might be able to restart after being shut down following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan last year.
From China’s perspective, a pause in deterioration gives it the space to continue to build up its economic and military strength to better compete going forward.
The visuals are also important to Xi Jinping domestically.
It has not been a brilliant year for him, with a chaotic end to his hated zero COVID policy, a faltering economy and deteriorating relations with multiple western countries. Being seen to be able to manage this crucial relationship is important to casting himself as a competent statesman.
So what will they discuss?
There are so many disagreements likely to be raised, but these are the top three on the list:
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China and US meet to ease tensions
Territorial claims and military tension
Perhaps top of the long list of issues between them is China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in contested areas that it claims as its own.
Most prominent is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Xi has expressed multiple times his desire to “reunify” Taiwan, Biden has promised to defend it.
The other arena where tensions are rising is the South China Sea.
China claims the vast majority as its international waters, despite rival claims from the Philippines and others. In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines.
However, in recent months there have been frequent confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels, and here too the US has reiterated its commitment to support the Philippines.
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Boats from China and Philippines collide
The US claims that in both areas China’s behaviour is becoming increasingly aggressive and, in some cases dangerous. It has released videos of Chinese jets flying hair-raisingly close to US ones, in one recent case, just 10ft away.
The Americans say the risk of accidents and escalation is grave.
China, for its part, says that it is US conduct that is the dangerous force. It sees American presence in these regions as blatant provocation in its backyard.
These are deeply intractable issues, the best that might be hoped for is some sort of agreement to an offramp for if things ever escalate.
Global conflicts
The two leaders will also discuss the two major ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In both, they have taken a drastically different tact.
When it comes to Ukraine, China has attempted to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker, one of the only nations with the ability to talk to both sides.
The reality, though, is that Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin and has quietly been providing Russia with finance, technology and diplomatic cover.
Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, it has called for a ceasefire and peace, but it has stopped short of directly condemning Hamas for the 7 October atrocities and state media has taken a decidedly pro-Palestinian tone.
In both cases, China’s approach is in stark opposition to America’s, and it has criticised its rival for its full-throated support for both Israel and Ukraine and the supply of military assistance.
At root, both have an interest in the other not gaining advantage or influence off the back of the outcomes of these conflicts.
Tech and economic sanctions
There is still a raft of restrictions on technology and economic sanctions that exist between them.
Just in the last month, new ones have been announced on both sides, with China restricting US access to graphite (a crucial component in making batteries) and the US further restricting Chinese access to semiconductors.
The aim on both sides is to hinder the other’s ability to develop in key areas such as AI. But this trade war hurts them both as they remain major trading partners and the two economies are highly reliant on each other.
Xi in particular has a need to mitigate these issues.
Amidst a flagging economy, he is trying to woo foreign investment back to China and is expected to meet with US business leaders while in San Francisco.
A smooth summit might help him stave off, at least temporarily, more US restrictions and it may help shore up the confidence of some foreign businesses spooked by the imposition of state-centric restrictions and raids on a handful of China-based US businesses.
Washington woke up this morning to a flurry of developments on Ukraine.
It was the middle of the night in DC when a tweet dropped from Ukraine’s national security advisor, Rustem Umerov.
He said that the US and Ukraine had reached a “common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva.”
He added that Volodymyr Zelenskyy would travel to America “at the earliest suitable date in November to complete final steps and make a deal with President Trump”.
Ukraine latest: ‘Delicate’ deal details must be sorted, White House says
By sunrise in Washington, a US official was using similar but not identical language to frame progress.
The official, speaking anonymously to US media, said that Ukraine had “agreed” to Trump’s peace proposal “with some minor details to be worked out”.
In parallel, it’s emerged that talks have been taking place in Abu Dhabi. The Americans claim to have met both Russian and Ukrainian officials there, though the Russians have not confirmed attendance.
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Peace deal ‘agreement’: What we know
“I have nothing to say. We are following the media reports,” Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, told Russian state media.
Trump is due to travel to his Florida resort Mar-a-Lago tonight, where he will remain until Sunday.
He set a deadline of Thursday – Thanksgiving – for some sort of agreement on his plan.
We know the plan has been changed from its original form, but it’s clear that Zelenskyy wants to be seen to agree to something quickly – that would go down well with President Trump.
Read more:
US hails ‘tremendous progress’ on Ukraine peace plan
In full: Europe’s 28-point counter proposal
My sense is that Zelenskyy will try to get to Mar-a-Lago as soon as he can. Before Thursday would be a push but would meet Trump’s deadline.
It will then be left for the Russians to state their position on the revised document.
All indications are that they will reject it. But maybe the secret Abu Dhabi talks will yield something.
“Drill, baby, drill” was Donald Trump’s campaign pledge – and he’s following through with a proposal to expand fossil fuel production, which environmentalists say would have devastating consequences.
The Trump administration has tabled a plan to open federal waters off the coasts of California, Florida, and Alaska to oil and gas drilling for the first time in decades – including areas that have never been touched.
A total of one billion acres of water would be offered for lease under the proposal. That’s equivalent to more than half the total land mass of the US.
While the rest of the Western world is striving to move away from fossil fuels, the US appears to be gravitating back towards them, with the administration describing climate change as a “hoax,” “a scam,” and a “con job”.
In Huntington Beach – a coastal community in California that calls itself “Surf City USA” – a huge oil spill in 2021 shut down a miles-long stretch of the coastline, killing wildlife and soiling the sand.
From the beach, where surfers lay out alongside tourists and dog walkers, you can see Platform Esther, a hulking oil rig built in 1965 that ceased production in August this year. Sea lions hug the metal pillars on the rig and dozens of birds perch on the platform.
‘What we have here is irreplaceable’
Pete Stauffer, ocean protection manager at the Surfrider Foundation, said: “Here in California, we depend on a clean and healthy coastal environment – whether it’s coastal tourism, whether it’s fisheries, or local businesses and jobs.
“All these things are tied to what we have here, which is really an outstanding marine ecosystem.
“No disrespect to Mickey Mouse, but you can build another theme park. What we have here is irreplaceable. Why would you put that at risk?”
As a state, California views itself as a leader on climate action. A massive spill off the coast of Santa Barbara sparked the modern environmental movement.
‘We need as much oil as possible’
But the Trump administration says more oil drilling will help make the country energy independent, bringing new jobs and reducing petrol prices. That messaging has resonated with some here.
Johnny Long is a surfer who lives in Huntington Beach. “Drill, baby, drill,” he says, when I ask about Trump’s plans for more offshore drilling. “We need as much oil as possible. It’s right below us. We need to take it and extract it and bring the gas prices down, it’s absolutely fantastic.”
I ask about concerns that it will be detrimental to the local environment and beyond.
“I’d say phoeey on that,” Johnny responds. “It’s ridiculous. Climate change is a hoax.”
Read more climate news:
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Johnny Long
But others vehemently disagree – including Linda from nearby Seal Beach: “It’s so bad for the environment. It’s already bad enough, you know, and they’re gonna drill, and what happens when they drill? They always have accidents because people are human and accidents happen.
“Trump and his goonies don’t care about the environment, all they care about is money.”
The president’s push to expand fossil fuel production coincided with the UN climate conference. For the first time in the summit’s history, the US didn’t send a delegation.
Critics say the snub shows a disregard for how future generations will be affected by the decisions the White House is making right now.
The revenge tour has come off the rails.
Donald Trump had long promised retribution against his political enemies, but – to coin a phrase used around the White House – he’s f****ed around and found out that it doesn’t fly so easily through the courts.
His mistake was in choosing a pilot unable to fly the plane.
Lindsey Halligan is the lawyer who took the job of Trump-enforcer when others, better qualified, turned it down.
The prosecution of Trump’s adversaries would have been the job of Erik Siebert, US attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, but he gave it a body swerve.
He had declined to prosecute the case against Letitia James, the New York attorney-general who successfully prosecuted the Trump organisation for business fraud.
Siebert concluded there were not sufficient grounds to prosecute, which didn’t please the president, and Seibert quit before he was pushed.
A number of career prosecutors were similarly reluctant to take the case, leaving Trump checking availability.
That’s when he turned to Lindsey Halligan, an insurance lawyer by trade.
Her work experience didn’t necessarily suit the job brief – the prosecutor with the highest of profiles had no prosecutorial experience.
In pursuing the cases against Comey and James, she had to present evidence before a grand jury, something she hadn’t done before.
Letitia James and James Comey have had criminal charges against them dismissed. Pics: Reuters
If that wasn’t ideal, that wasn’t all.
Something else Halligan didn’t have was the legal ability to do the job. Her appointment violated laws limiting the ability of the justice department to install top prosecutors.
It was an elementary error that didn’t pass by Judge Cameron Currie, who called it a “defective appointment”.
In setting aside the indictments against Comey and James, she wrote: “I conclude that all actions flowing from Ms Halligan’s defective appointment… constitute unlawful exercises of executive power.”
The US Department of Justice can appeal the move, so Comey and James haven’t reached road’s end.
Read more from Sky News:
US hails ‘tremendous progress’ on Ukraine peace plan
Trump changes tack on Marjorie Taylor Greene
But it’s a significant boost for both, and a significant blow for Trump.
He is the president in pursuit of sworn enemies, which his critics characterise as a weaponisation of the justice system.
Those same critics will point to the haste and impropriety on display as evidence of it, and take heart from a system offering a robust resistance.
Donald Trump appears undeterred. White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said: “The facts of the indictments against Comey and James have not changed, and this will not be the final word on this matter.”
Letitia James is charged with bank fraud and making false statements to a financial institution. James Comey was charged with making false statements and obstructing a congressional investigation.
Trump fired Comey in 2017, while he was overseeing an investigation into alleged Russian interference in the Trump 2016 campaign.
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