It has been a year since President Xi and President Biden last met, and it’s hard to overstate just what a rollercoaster US-China relations have been on since then.
The fact this meeting is happening at all is the result of months of delicate planning.
But for all the “tough-line”, “hard-man” images that both men try to broadcast domestically, there is a mutual recognition of one key fact: it would cost more, both politically and economically, to allow relations to spiral.
Why now?
It was just nine months ago that US-China relations hit what felt like rock bottom as the so-called Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US, plunging their diplomacy into crisis.
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Moment ‘spy balloon’ is shot down
The vast backdrop of disagreements from Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, the Ukraine war, tech controls and economic sanctions meant the relationship felt as precarious and as dangerous as it had in decades.
But the summer has seen a blitz of diplomatic efforts to try to repair things, with multiple meetings of officials at various levels.
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Both sides know the window for progress is narrow.
Come next year, Taiwan’s presidential election will likely inflame tensions, and then the inevitable anti-China sentiment that will accompany the US election cycle will no doubt make things worse.
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The time to play statesmen and to push for their interests is now!
What do they want?
Don’t be under any illusion, both Bidenand Xiare coming to this table with immense amounts of scepticism about the other’s intentions.
Any meaningful breakthrough is highly unlikely.
What they both seek is a degree of what’s being called “tactical stabilisation” – a pause in deterioration that will allow each to pursue its interests in a more predictable environment.
On the US side, there is an understanding that only a meeting of the top men will unlock the Chinese system to enable cooperation on some of the “easier” issues like climate change and global health.
There is also a hope that military-to-military talks might be able to restart after being shut down following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan last year.
From China’s perspective, a pause in deterioration gives it the space to continue to build up its economic and military strength to better compete going forward.
The visuals are also important to Xi Jinping domestically.
It has not been a brilliant year for him, with a chaotic end to his hated zero COVID policy, a faltering economy and deteriorating relations with multiple western countries. Being seen to be able to manage this crucial relationship is important to casting himself as a competent statesman.
So what will they discuss?
There are so many disagreements likely to be raised, but these are the top three on the list:
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China and US meet to ease tensions
Territorial claims and military tension
Perhaps top of the long list of issues between them is China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in contested areas that it claims as its own.
Most prominent is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China sees as a breakaway province. Xi has expressed multiple times his desire to “reunify” Taiwan, Biden has promised to defend it.
The other arena where tensions are rising is the South China Sea.
China claims the vast majority as its international waters, despite rival claims from the Philippines and others. In 2016, an international arbitral tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines.
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Boats from China and Philippines collide
The US claims that in both areas China’s behaviour is becoming increasingly aggressive and, in some cases dangerous. It has released videos of Chinese jets flying hair-raisingly close to US ones, in one recent case, just 10ft away.
The Americans say the risk of accidents and escalation is grave.
China, for its part, says that it is US conduct that is the dangerous force. It sees American presence in these regions as blatant provocation in its backyard.
These are deeply intractable issues, the best that might be hoped for is some sort of agreement to an offramp for if things ever escalate.
Global conflicts
The two leaders will also discuss the two major ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In both, they have taken a drastically different tact.
When it comes to Ukraine, China has attempted to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker, one of the only nations with the ability to talk to both sides.
The reality, though, is that Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putinand has quietly been providing Russia with finance, technology and diplomatic cover.
Image: Xi has made no secret of his growing closeness to Putin. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, it has called for a ceasefire and peace, but it has stopped short of directly condemning Hamasfor the 7 October atrocities and state media has taken a decidedly pro-Palestinian tone.
In both cases, China’s approach is in stark opposition to America’s, and it has criticised its rival for its full-throated support for both Israeland Ukraine and the supply of military assistance.
At root, both have an interest in the other not gaining advantage or influence off the back of the outcomes of these conflicts.
Tech and economic sanctions
There is still a raft of restrictions on technology and economic sanctions that exist between them.
Just in the last month, new ones have been announced on both sides, with China restricting US access to graphite (a crucial component in making batteries) and the US further restricting Chinese access to semiconductors.
The aim on both sides is to hinder the other’s ability to develop in key areas such as AI. But this trade war hurts them both as they remain major trading partners and the two economies are highly reliant on each other.
Xi in particular has a need to mitigate these issues.
Amidst a flagging economy, he is trying to woo foreign investment back to China and is expected to meet with US business leaders while in San Francisco.
A smooth summit might help him stave off, at least temporarily, more US restrictions and it may help shore up the confidence of some foreign businesses spooked by the imposition of state-centric restrictions and raids on a handful of China-based US businesses.
Tanking stock markets, collapsing world orders, devastating trade wars; economists with their hair ablaze are scrambling to keep up.
But as we try to make sense of Donald Trumps’s tariff tsunami, economic theory only goes so far. In the end this surely is about something more primal.
Power.
Understanding that may be crucial to how the world responds.
Yes, economics helps explain the impact. The world’s economy has after all shifted on its axis, the way it’s been run for decades turned on its head.
Instead of driving world trade, America is creating a trade war. We will all feel the impact.
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PM will ‘fight’ for deal with US
Donald Trump says he is settling scores, righting wrongs. America has been raped, looted and pillaged by the world trading system.
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But don’t be distracted by the hyperbole – and if you think this is about economics alone, you may be missing the point.
Above all, tariffs give Donald Trump power. They strike fear into allies and enemies, from governments to corporations.
This is a president who runs his presidency like a medieval emperor or mafia don.
It is one reason why since his election we have seen what one statesman called a conga line of sycophants make their way to the White House, from world leaders to titans of industry.
The conga line will grow longer as they now redouble their efforts hoping to special treatment from Trump’s tariffs. Sir Keir Starmer among them.
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President Trump’s using similar tactics at home, deploying presidential power to extract concessions and deter dissent in corporate America, academia and the US media. Those who offer favours are spared punishment.
His critics say he seeks a form power for the executive or presidential branch of government that the founding fathers deliberately sought to prevent.
Whether or not that is true, the same playbook of divide and rule through intimidation can now be applied internationally. Thanks to tariffs
Each country will seek exceptions but on Trump’s terms. Those who retaliate may meet escalation.
This is the unforgiving calculus for governments including our own plotting their next moves.
The temptation will be to give Trump whatever he wants to spare their economies, but there is a jeopardy that compounds the longer this goes on.
Image: Could America’s traditional allies turn to China? Pic: AP
Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister who coined the conga line comparison, put it this way: “Pretty much all the international leaders I have seen that have sucked up to Trump have been run over. The reality is if you suck up to bullies, whether it’s global affairs or in the playground, you just get more bullying.”
Trading partners may be able to mitigate the impact of these tariffs through negotiation, but that may only encourage this unorthodox president to demand ever more?
Ultimately the world will need a more reliable superpower than that.
In the hands of such a president, America cannot be counted on.
When it comes to security, stability and prosperity, allies will need to fend for themselves.
And they will need new friends. If Washington can’t be relied on, Beijing beckons.
America First will, more and more, mean America on its own.
Actors, directors and celebrity friends have paid tribute to Val Kilmer, after he died aged 65.
The California-born star of Top Gun, Batman and Heat died of pneumonia on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, his daughter Mercedes told the Associated Press.
She said Kilmer was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014 but later recovered.
Tributes flooded in after reports broke of the actor’s death, with No Country For Old Men star Josh Brolin among the first to share their memories.
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Watch: Val Kilmer in his most iconic roles
He wrote on Instagram: “See ya, pal. I’m going to miss you. You were a smart, challenging, brave, uber-creative firecracker. There’s not a lot left of those.
“I hope to see you up there in the heavens when I eventually get there. Until then, amazing memories, lovely thoughts.”
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Kyle Maclachlan, who co-starred with Kilmer in the 1991 biopic The Doors, wrote on social media: “You’ll always be my Jim. See you on the other side my friend.”
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Michael Mann, who directed Kilmer in 1995’s Heat, also paid tribute in a statement, saying: “I always marvelled at the range, the brilliant variability within the powerful current of Val’s possessing and expressing character.
“After so many years of Val battling disease and maintaining his spirit, this is tremendously sad news.”
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Heat co-star Danny Trejo also called Kilmer “a great actor, a wonderful person, and a dear friend of mine” on Instagram.
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Cher, who once dated the actor, said on X that “U Were Funny, crazy, pain in the ass, GREAT FRIEND… BRILLIANT as Mark Twain, BRAVE here during ur sickness”.
Lifelong friend and director of Twixt, Francis Ford Coppola said: “Val Kilmer was the most talented actor when in his High School, and that talent only grew greater throughout his life.
“He was a wonderful person to work with and a joy to know – I will always remember him.”
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The Top Gun account on X also said it was remembering Kilmer, who starred as Iceman in both the 1986 original and 2022 sequel, and “whose indelible cinematic mark spanned genres and generations”.
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No one expected penguins to bear the brunt of Liberation Day.
But among the barrage of tariffs set out by Donald Trump, the US also took aim at uninhabited islands, talked up American beef and turned its nose up at plastic eggs.
Here is what you might have missed in the US leader’s expansive announcement.
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What the numbers behind Trump’s tariffs really mean
Tiny territories hit with big tariffs
At first glance, newly imposed tariffs on countries such as China, the European Union, India and the UK stand out – ranging from 34% to 10% respectively.
But the president also imposed tariffs on dozens of tiny territories – some of which don’t even have human inhabitants.
One of those was the Heard and McDonald Islands, an external territory of Australia in the Antarctic that is inhabited only by penguins and seals.
Image: All of Australia’s external territories that have been hit with US tariffs
Despite having no human residents – or imports and exports – the island now faces a 10% tariff for any goods bound for the US.
According to export data from the World Bank, the US imported $1.4m (£1m) of mainly “machinery and electrical” products from Heard Island and McDonald Islands in 2022.
Australian territory Norfolk Island, a volcanic island 600 miles east of Queensland, was also hit with a hefty 29% tariff on exports to the US. That’s much higher than mainland Australia, which had a 10% tariff imposed.
The news was met with confusion by some of Norfolk Island’s 2,188 residents.
“Norfolk Island is a little dot in the world,” Richard Cottle, owner of a concrete-mixing business on the island, said on Thursday.
“We don’t export anything. It was just a mistake”.
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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?
Although the island does ship a modest amount of Kentia palm seeds abroad, this is typically worth less than $1m (£760,000) a year, with the products mostly going to Europe.
According to US government data, America has recorded trade deficits with Norfolk Island for the past three years.
Other tiny nations and territories were also hit with 10% tariffs, including Tokelau, a dependent territory of New Zealand, with a population of around 1,600 people, and the Cocos Islands, another territory of Australia, with a population of around 600 people.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters he had no explanation for the tariffs, calling them “unexpected” and “a bit strange”.
Image: We have a feeling the seals won’t welcome Trump for his next holiday to the Heard Island… Pic: AP
‘Our beef is beautiful, theirs is weak’
After announcing a 20% tariff against the European Union, Mr Trump’s secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick spoke to Fox News to try to explain what was behind the decision.
In a brief but bizarre rant, Mr Lutnick spoke about the bloc’s ban on imported chicken from the US.
“I mean European Union won’t take chicken from America,” he said.
“They will take lobsters from America… they hate our beef because our beef is beautiful and theirs is weak.”
The EU has a ban on chicken washed in chlorine – a practice that is approved by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Although US beef is not completely prohibited in Europe, any beef that has been treated with artificial growth hormones – which is legal in the US and common among producers – is banned by the EU.
Why was Russia exempt?
Russia was not on Mr Trump’s tariff list, despite his threat to introduce some on Russian oil imports last week.
The US president made the threat after telling NBC’s Kirsten Welker he was “very angry” and “pissed off” after Vladimir Putin criticised the credibility of Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as fragile peace negotiations are ongoing.
Mr Trump said that if Russia was unable to make a deal on “stopping bloodshed in Ukraine” – and Mr Trump felt that Moscow was to blame – then he would put secondary tariffs on “all oil coming out of Russia”.
“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil,” he said.
Axios reported that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the publication on Wednesday that Russia was left off the tariffs list because US sanctions already “preclude any meaningful trade”.
Russia ran a $2.5bn goods trade surplus with the US in 2024, according to the US Trade Representative’s office, falling from $35bn in 2021 as a result of sanctions put in place due to the war in Ukraine.
World’s poorest nations face highest tariffs
Many of Mr Trump’s tariffs have targeted the world’s poorest countries.
Lesotho in southern Africa, listed as the 22 poorest country in the world, has been slapped with the highest duty of 50%. It primarily exports diamonds and garments, with the US as one of the top five exporting destinations, Sky News’ US partner network NBC News reported.
The second-highest tariff went to Cambodia at 49%, even though the US is Cambodia’s largest single-country export destination.
Madagascar in east Africa, the world’s ninth poorest country, will face 47% reciprocal tariffs. It primarily exports vanilla, cloves, and garments, with the US among the top five countries it exports to, according to NBC.
‘Huge complexities’ for Northern Ireland and the Republic
Image: Deputy premier Simon Harris said the difference in tariffs between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will cause complexities. Pic: Cillian Sherlock/PA Wire
Under the 10% tariff imposed on the UK, Northern Irish goods will also be covered at the same rate.
Whereas the Republic of Ireland will subject to a 20% tariffs – which Mr Trump imposed on the entirety of the EU.
Reacting to the announcement, Ireland deputy premier Simon Harris said the tariff difference would create “huge complexities” for products that need to be carried across the cross-border dimension during production.
He said the issues were similar to those at play during the Brexit debate around maintaining a frictionless land border on the island of Ireland.
Mr Harris said it was on the US to “outline their understanding” on how the 10% differential between Northern Ireland and Ireland will play out.
Trump defines groceries
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Trump says ‘groceries’ is a ‘beautiful term’
As has become common when delivering major addresses, the US president repeatedly deviated from his script.
At one point, he took time to define the word groceries: “It’s a bag with a lot of different things in it.”
He went on to describe the word as “old-fashioned” but “beautiful”.
‘Could you use plastic eggs?’
In another part of his wide-ranging speech, Mr Trump got onto the topic of eggs – the price of which reached an all-time high earlier this year in the US due to the outbreak of bird flu.
On Wednesday, Mr Trump confirmed that the annual White House tradition of rolling around 30,000 Easter eggs across the South Lawn is expected to proceed, and will use real eggs, despite pleas for plastic ones to be used instead.
“They were saying that for Easter ‘Please don’t use eggs. Could you use plastic eggs?’ I say, we don’t want to do that,” Mr Trump said.
He did not clarify who was telling him not to use real eggs.