
True freshman progress report: How the top 50 recruits in the 2023 class have fared
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2 years agoon
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Blake Baumgartner
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Tom VanHaaren
CloseTom VanHaaren
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN staff writer
- Joined ESPN in 2011
- Graduated from Central Michigan
Nov 15, 2023, 06:50 AM ET
There are just two weeks remaining in the 2023 college football regular season. After 11 weeks, we can assess which true freshmen have become instant stars, while for others, we’ll still have to wait and see.
While there have been a lot of impactful newcomers, many have come from the transfer portal, and freshmen who might have otherwise been put into bigger roles have had more time to develop or redshirt and gain another year of eligibility.
Then there are players such as Alabama safety Caleb Downs, USC receiver Zachariah Branch and Miami offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa, who have seemingly started since their first day on campus.
Here’s our breakdown of what the top 50 prospects from the 2023 ESPN 300 player rankings have done this season:
Note: No. 5 recruit Arch Manning (Texas), No. 9 Qua Russaw (Alabama), No. 12. Keon Keeley (Alabama), No. 19 Dezz Ricks (Alabama), No. 29 Eli Holstein (Alabama), No. 36 Dylan Lonergan (Alabama) and No. 46 Jahlil Hurley (Alabama) have not played this season and are on track to redshirt. They aren’t included in the top 50 below.
School: USC Trojans
2023 stats: Completed 1 of 3 passes for 0 yards in one game.
How he has fared so far: Nelson was the top recruit overall in the 2023 class, but he knew going in that he would have to sit behind Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Nelson didn’t have an expectation that he would play right away and has played in one game, the Trojans’ 56-28 victory over San Jose State on Aug. 26. It’s not yet known if Williams will enter the NFL draft after this season, so Nelson’s future role won’t be defined until that happens.
School: UCLA Bruins
2023 stats: Completed 91 of 175 passes for 1,344 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions in eight games.
How he has fared so far: Moore battled Ethan Garbers and Kent State transfer Collin Schlee in the preseason to take the reins of the Bruins’ offense and has shown flashes of what he’s capable of through some expected growing pains. Moore, who started five games this season before Chip Kelly went back to Garbers against Stanford on Oct. 21, was 17-of-27 for 290 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start — a 35-10 victory over San Diego State — on Sept. 9.
School: Oklahoma Sooners
2023 stats: Completed 13 of 15 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns in four games.
How he has fared so far: Arnold was a perfect 11-of-11 for 114 yards and a score in a 73-0 shutout of Arkansas State on Sept. 2. After the West Virginia game, OU said it would try to redshirt Arnold, meaning he wouldn’t play the rest of the season. He has seen action in four games, which is the max number of games he can play in before burning his redshirt and preserving his year of eligibility. Dillon Gabriel is entrenched as the starter for the Sooners, but Arnold very well could be the future once Gabriel moves on.
School: Clemson Tigers
2023 stats: 17 tackles (12 solo) with two tackles for loss in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Woods was a versatile defensive lineman out of high school, displaying speed and power, and putting up a ton of production. He had 175 total tackles and 47 tackles for loss in his final two seasons of high school. He has played in nine of 10 games this season, playing in 227 snaps, and has 17 total tackles and two tackles for loss. Woods recorded a career-high three tackles in consecutive games against Wake Forest and Miami.
School: Miami Hurricanes
2023 stats: Miami has averaged 427.6 total yards per game, fifth in the ACC.
How he has fared so far: Mauigoa earned the starting right tackle job out of fall camp and has been a part of one of the country’s best offensive lines ever since. He has played in 615 snaps over 10 games this season and has allowed four sacks on 300 pass block snaps.
School: USC Trojans
2023 stats: 24 receptions for 260 yards and two touchdowns, seven carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, 22 kickoff returns for 390 yards and a touchdown and 15 punt returns for 309 yards and a touchdown in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Branch has proved to be a multipurpose player for USC this season. He is sixth on the team in receptions and fifth in receiving yards. He caught a 25-yard touchdown pass and had a 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the Trojans’ 56-28 win over San Jose State on Aug. 26. He has accounted for 699 return yards and two scores on special teams.
No. 8. DJ Hicks, Defensive tackle
School: Texas A&M Aggies
2023 stats: 11 tackles (four solo) with two tackles for loss and one sack.
How he has fared so far: Hicks had Oklahoma, Miami and a few other big programs after him late in the process. He chose Texas A&M and has made an appearance in nine games this season. Hicks recorded a career-high three tackles and 0.5 sack in a 20-13 loss against Tennessee on Oct. 14.
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: 11 knockdown blocks in 507 snaps in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Proctor earned the starting left tackle position coming into the year and has held the job all season. Alabama’s OL paved the way for a rushing attack that had 288 yards and six scores on the ground against LSU.
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: 83 tackles (53 solo) with 1.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Downs, who earned the starting job at strong safety out of fall camp, leads Alabama in tackles with 83 and is fifth in the SEC in that category. He tallied a career-high 13 tackles and pulled down an interception in Alabama’s 40-17 win over Mississippi State on Sept. 30.
No. 13. Makai Lemon, Wide receiver
School: USC Trojans
2023 stats: Four catches for 13 yards and five kickoff returns for 94 yards in seven games.
How he has fared so far: Lemon was high school teammates with Nelson, so the two already had a connection coming into USC. The Trojans have some experienced receivers on the roster, so it didn’t seem likely that Lemon would make a huge impact coming into this season. He does, however, give the offense a good option at the position for the future, especially if Nelson eventually takes over at quarterback. Lemon had three receptions for 13 yards in a 66-14 victory over Nevada on Sept. 2, but has limited playing time outside of that.
School: Colorado Buffaloes
2023 stats: Six tackles (three solo) and one tackle for loss in eight games.
How he has fared so far: McClain, a heralded flip for Deion Sanders after initially committing to Miami, did not play much at the start of the season and Sanders called out his practice habits. McClain has bounced back since and started in Week 11 against Arizona. McClain had two tackles apiece in losses to Oregon and Oregon State.
School: Georgia Bulldogs
2023 stats: Nine tackles (five solo).
How he has fared so far: Wilson flipped his commitment from Michigan to Georgia out of high school and was the highest ranked commitment for the Dawgs in the class. He tallied his first career sack in the Bulldogs’ 51-13 victory over Kentucky on Oct. 7, and has registered at least one tackle in seven games this year.
School: Texas Longhorns
2023 stats: 47 tackles (28 solo) with five tackles for loss, three sacks and two passes defended in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Hill was an important commitment for Steve Sarkisian and his staff in the 2023 cycle. He was the No. 1 inside linebacker in the country, but he was also the No. 3 prospect in the state of Texas. The Longhorns needed help on defense and Hill has already made an impact. He’s third on the team in tackles, had six tackles and two sacks in a 34-24 victory over Alabama on Sept. 9, and has played in all 10 games this season.
School: Oklahoma Sooners
2023 stats: 29 tackles (17 solo) with four passes defended, one tackle for loss, one forced fumble and two blocked punts in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Bowen’s journey to get to Oklahoma was a wild ride as he originally committed to Notre Dame, flipped to Oregon and then signed with Oklahoma all within a matter of days. The Sooners struggled on defense in the 2022 season and needed defensive help. Landing Bowen was a big win for the staff and the former five-star earned a starting job at safety coming into the year. He leads the team with four passes defended and after blocking punts in wins against both SMU and Iowa State, he recorded five tackles and forced a pivotal fumble in the Sooners’ 34-30 victory over Texas on Oct. 7.
School: Ole Miss Rebels
2023 stats: 33 tackles (15 solo) with five tackles for loss, 3 ½ sacks and one pass defended in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Perkins, who’s tied for second on the team with 3 ½ sacks, had two sacks in a 24-10 loss against Alabama on Sept. 30. He has played in all 10 games this season for Ole Miss and took home co-SEC freshman of the week at the end of October.
School: Oklahoma Sooners
2023 stats: Six tackles (three solo) with three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Adebawore recorded 2.5 tackles for loss in a 66-17 victory over Tulsa on Sept. 16. He has appeared in 10 games so far this season and saw praise from head coach Brent Venables for his work ethic prior to the season starting.
School: Miami Hurricanes
2023 stats: Miami has rushed for 172 yards/game – eighth in the ACC.
How he has fared so far: Okunlola played in three games before suffering a season-ending injury during the Hurricanes’ bye week in early October.
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: Seven carries for 22 yards in two games.
How he has fared so far: Young ran for 18 yards in a 56-7 win over Middle Tennessee State on Sept. 2. He was the No. 1 running back in the 2023 class and signed with Alabama alongside the No. 2 back, Justice Haynes. Despite their lofty rankings, Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams have taken most of the carries for the Crimson Tide this season. Young has appeared in two games so far and hasn’t had many opportunities to put together many impactful stats.
School: Tennessee Volunteers
2023 stats: Completed 7 of 14 passes for 97 yards and one TD.
How he has fared so far: Iamaleava led a scoring drive in a 49-13 victory over Virginia on Sept. 2 and saw more action in the Nov. 4 game against UConn. He had 86 yards passing and a score in that one. He came into Tennessee knowing that Joe Milton was the starter for the Volunteers and that he would have limited opportunities.
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: 16 carries for 95 yards in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Haynes rushed for a career-high 29 yards in a 56-7 victory over Middle Tennessee State on Sept. 2. Haynes signed with Young in the 2023 class, but has had more carries this season than his fellow freshman. Haynes has appeared in nine games so far and while he is behind McClellan and Williams, he has shown the ability to impact the run game in the future.
No. 25. James Smith, Defensive tackle
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: One tackle in eight games.
How he has fared so far: Smith recovered a fumble in the Crimson Tide’s 17-3 win at South Florida on Sept. 16.
School: Texas Longhorns
2023 stats: Six receptions for 107 yards in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Cook caught a 51-yard pass in a 38-6 victory over Baylor on Sept. 23.
School: Georgia Bulldogs
2023 stats: Seven tackles (five solo), one tackle for loss and one pass defended in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Aguero had a career-high four tackles and one tackle for loss in a 49-21 victory over UAB on Sept. 23.
School: Florida State Seminoles
2023 stats: Four receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown in seven games.
How he has fared so far: Williams caught a 44-yard touchdown pass in a win over Syracuse on Oct. 14.
No. 30. CJ Baxter, Running back
School: Texas Longhorns
2023 stats: 87 carries for 390 yards and three touchdowns and 12 receptions for 63 yards in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Baxter had the eventual game-winning touchdown run in a 31-24 win over Houston on Oct. 24.
School: Arizona State Sun Devils
2023 stats: Completed 34 of 60 passes for 403 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception in two games.
How he has fared so far: Rashada earned the starting QB job out of fall camp but hasn’t played since the first two weeks while dealing with an injury sustained in high school. He went 18-of-31 for 236 yards and two touchdowns in a season-opening victory over Southern Utah.
School: LSU Tigers
2023 stats: 23 tackles (13 solo) in 10 games
How he has fared so far: Toviano had seven tackles (five solo) in a 42-28 loss at Alabama on Nov. 4 and then followed that up with a career-high 10 tackles during a 52-35 victory over Florida on Nov. 11.
School: Georgia Bulldogs
2023 stats: Six tackles (three solo) in four games.
How he has fared so far: M’Pemba had two tackles apiece in victories over Ball State and Mississippi.
School: Ohio State Buckeyes
2023 stats: One reception for 58 yards and one touchdown in five games.
How he has fared so far: Inniss recorded his first career reception and touchdown in a 41-7 victory at Purdue on Oct. 14.
School: Georgia Bulldogs
2023 stats: Four tackles (one solo) with 0.5 tackle for loss and 0.5 sack in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Wilson had a 0.5 sack in a 43-20 victory over Florida on Oct. 28.
School: Georgia Bulldogs
2023 stats: Eight tackles (three solo) in seven games.
How he has fared so far: Harris recorded a career-high four tackles in a 45-3 victory over Ball State on Sept. 9.
School: Oregon Ducks
2023 stats: No stats
How he has fared so far: Dickey appeared in games against Portland, Hawaii and California but didn’t record any stats.
School: South Carolina Gamecocks
2023 stats: 11 receptions for 177 yards and one touchdown in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Harbor caught six passes for 59 yards in a 30-17 loss at Texas A&M on Oct. 28.
School: USC Trojans
2023 stats: 11 receptions for 275 yards and a touchdown in nine games and one punt return for 10 yards.
How he has fared so far: Robinson caught four passes for 71 yards in a 56-10 victory over Stanford on Sept. 9.
School: Georgia Bulldogs
2023 stats: Four tackles (two solo) in four games.
How he has fared so far: Bowles had a career-high three tackles in a 48-7 victory over Tennessee Martin on Sept. 2.
School: Clemson Tigers
2023 stats: No stats
How he has fared so far: Vizzina played in the Tigers’ 66-17 victory over Charleston Southern on Sept. 9 but didn’t attempt a pass.
School: Ohio State Buckeyes
2023 stats: 13 tackles (nine solo) with one interception and three passes defended in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Mathews came down with an interception in a 63-10 victory against Western Kentucky on Sept. 16. He stepped in after Denzel Burke got hurt and played 47 snaps against Penn State.
School: Texas A&M Aggies
2023 stats: 70 carries for 232 yards and two touchdowns and eight receptions for 83 yards and eight kickoff returns for 154 yards in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Owens ran a career-high 18 times for 40 yards, tallying a touchdown, in a 30-17 victory over South Carolina on Oct. 28. His 232 yards places him third on the Aggies in rushing.
School: Oklahoma Sooners
2023 stats: 11 receptions for 70 yards in six games.
How he has fared so far: Pettaway recorded nine receptions for 56 yards in a 73-0 victory over Arkansas State on Sept. 2.
No. 47. Jalen Hale, Wide receiver
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: Four receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown in nine games
How he has fared so far: Hale hauled in a 33-yard touchdown pass in the Crimson Tide’s 24-10 victory over Ole Miss on Sept. 30.
School: Oklahoma Sooners
2023 stats: Seven tackles (five solo) with a half-tackle for loss and one interception in 10 games.
How he has fared so far: Johnson had two tackles in a 73-0 victory over Arkansas State on Sept. 2 and recorded his first career interception in a 59-20 victory over West Virginia on Nov. 11.
School: LSU Tigers
2023 stats: Nine tackles (four solo) with one tackle for loss and one sack in nine games.
How he has fared so far: Womack had two tackles and a sack in a 34-31 victory over Arkansas on Sept. 23.
School: Alabama Crimson Tide
2023 stats: One tackle in two games.
How he has fared so far: Renaud had one assisted tackle in a 17-3 victory at South Florida on Sept. 16.
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Sports
Push the panic button: 12 Week 3 games, each with its own level of crisis
Published
7 hours agoon
September 13, 2025By
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Bill ConnellySep 12, 2025, 07:25 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
More:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
1:05
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he is cleared to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
Sports
Allmendinger races to first Cup pole in 10 years
Published
11 hours agoon
September 13, 2025By
admin
-
Associated Press
Sep 12, 2025, 10:25 PM ET
BRISTOL, Tenn. — AJ Allmendinger upstaged the NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers at Bristol Motor Speedway, capturing the pole for Saturday night’s first-round cutoff race on the 0.533-mile oval.
The Kaulig Racing driver qualified first for the first time in 10 years, turning a 15.117-second lap (126.930 mph) on Friday in his No. 16 Chevrolet. With his fifth career pole in a Cup race and first since August 2015 at Watkins Glen, the 43-year-old Allmendinger became the oldest driver to win a pole at Bristol since Mark Martin, who was 50 in 2009.
“To get a pole at Bristol, that’s pretty awesome,” said Allmendinger, whose previous pole on an oval was at Kansas in April 2012. “Hopefully, we can do that for 500 laps. I know it’s Friday night qualifying and doesn’t pay any points or money, but it’s small victories like this for our race team that’s continually trying to grow. Days like today are enjoyable and give me confidence because I feel like I can still do it. It proves I can be here.”
Ryan Blaney will start second after missing the pole by 0.003 seconds in his No. 12 Ford, but the Team Penske driver is in solid position to gain the 15 points needed to clinch a spot in the second round from his fourth front-row start this season.
“I think our race car is really good over the long haul and just looking forward to (Saturday) night,” Blaney said. “Overall proud of the effort and to be that close to the pole, it’s a good day.”
Teammate Austin Cindric qualified third, followed by Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson, who is aiming for his third consecutive victory at Bristol.
Cindric is ranked 12th in the standings and 11 points above the cutline heading into the 500-lap race that will eliminate four of 16 drivers from the playoffs.
“It’s the first box checked, but nothing is guaranteed from here,” Cindric said. “I feel like we’ve done our job for Friday. This sets us up well to try and continue to control our destiny for the end of the race.”
Playoff drivers rounded out the rest of the top 10 in qualifying with Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Josh Berry and Christopher Bell.
The starting positions of the other playoff drivers were: Ross Chastain 13th, Tyler Reddick 14th, Alex Bowman 15th, Chase Elliott 16th, Joey Logano 22nd, Austin Dillon 23rd and Shane van Gisbergen 28th.
Sports
Sources: ACC ref, irked by replay handling, quits
Published
17 hours agoon
September 12, 2025By
admin
-
Andrea Adelson
CloseAndrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
-
David Hale
CloseDavid Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
Sep 12, 2025, 03:38 PM ET
After an awkwardly handled replay late in the first half of last weekend’s game between UConn and Syracuse, a longtime ACC official has quit his post over frustration with the way the review was handled, sources told ESPN on Friday.
Gary Patterson, who served as the head referee for Saturday’s matchup between the Huskies and the Orange and has worked as an official with the ACC since 2002, abruptly terminated his contract with the conference after the game.
The ACC confirmed Patterson’s departure from the conference’s roster of officials Friday but said that adjustments to officiating crews have already been made and that there will be no disruption to league officiating. Patterson had been scheduled to referee Saturday’s game between Pitt and West Virginia.
The sequence that reportedly led to Patterson’s departure began with 1:02 remaining in the half and UConn leading 14-3. Syracuse opened a drive at the Huskies’ 25-yard line, and on first down, quarterback Steve Angeli dropped back to pass. His arm was hit as he threw, and the ball went forward about 8 yards, landing on the turf.
The officials immediately ruled the pass incomplete. Syracuse then snapped the ball again with 58 seconds left on the clock, though about 25 seconds of real time passed between plays. The second-down throw was nearly intercepted before two UConn players collided and the pass fell incomplete, bringing up a third-and-10 with 53 seconds to go.
A flag was thrown after the play, however, and Patterson could be seen talking on his headset to the ACC’s command center for nearly 90 seconds before announcing that “replay had buzzed in prior to the previous play.”
Sources who have reviewed numerous camera angles of the sequence said there was no physical indication by any official on the field that they had been buzzed by the replay booth before the second-down snap. An ACC spokesperson said that officials were buzzed to initiate the review but that the timing was not ideal for it to be a seamless replay. The conference has addressed the handling of this sequence internally, the spokesperson said.
Officials reviewed the first-down play to see whether Angeli had fumbled, negating the second-down play, before ultimately upholding the original call of an incomplete pass.
Syracuse and UConn officials were told the referee had simply “not heard” the initial request from the replay booth before the second-down snap.
ESPN rules expert Bill LeMonnier, who has decades of experience as an official, said the series of events was uncharacteristic of how a replay would normally be handled.
“Let’s say they’re right up at the line, the ball’s being snapped, and the buzzers go off,” LeMonnier said. “It’s the referee’s discretion to shut the play down vs. saying it’s too late. It’s supposed to be in the referee’s hands.”
LeMonnier also said a flag thrown after the second-down play, which was presumably due to a high hit on Angeli by a UConn defender, was ignored, despite rules saying a personal foul would be enforced even during a dead ball period.
“The mistakes were completely created by either the replay booth or the command center,” LeMonnier said. “It’s not the fault of the officials on the field.”
Every play is subject to review. When officials are buzzed to begin the process, they get on the headset with the replay booth in the stadium and the ACC command center and the review is initiated.
Two sources with knowledge of the situation said the directive came from the ACC command center.
One source said Patterson was upset at the ACC’s interference in forcing a replay after the next play had already occurred, instigating his resignation. Patterson did not respond to requests by ESPN for comment.
After the second-down incompletion was wiped out, Syracuse went 61 yards on its next seven plays and kicked a field goal as time expired in the half. The Orange went on to win the game 27-20 in overtime.
For select games this season, the ACC has allowed cameras and audio access to the review process, offering transparency into the discussions between on-field officials and replay officials at the command center. Last week’s game between UConn and Syracuse, however, was not among those with command center coverage.
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