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Iceland is on high alert for a volcanic eruption, with a state of emergency declared and almost 4,000 residents evacuated from their homes.

There is a “considerable” risk of an eruption on or just off the Reykjanes Peninsula, about 30 miles from the capital Reykjavik, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office.

The region has been shaken by hundreds of small earthquakes every day for more than two weeks.

Scientists have been monitoring a build-up of magma some three miles underground.

Here is what we know about when an eruption might happen.

When could the volcano erupt?

The probability of the volcano erupting at Fagradalsfjall in the coming days is “high”, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO).

“We believe that this intrusion is literally hovering, sitting in equilibrium now just below the earth’s surface,” Matthew James Roberts from the agency said.

But there is still “tremendous uncertainty”, he added. “Will there be an eruption and if so, what sort of damage will occur?”

“At this stage, it is not possible to determine exactly whether and where magma might reach the surface,” the IMO said.

Earthquake activity at Fagradalsfjall decreased over the weekend, which “indicates that a new phase of magma intrusion is occurring”, said Dr Margaret Hartley, lecturer in Earth Sciences at Manchester University.

Previous earthquakes in the areas were “all preceded by decreases in seismic activity, so this isn’t necessarily an indication that the volcanic unrest is dying down”.

On Tuesday, the Icelandic authorities judged the risk has temporarily eased enough to allow Grindavik’s inhabitants to briefly return home – escorted by search and rescue teams – to collect pets and belongings.

Authorities have raised their aviation alert to orange, indicating an increased risk of a volcanic eruption.

Volcanic eruptions pose a serious hazard to aviation because they can spew highly abrasive ash high into the atmosphere, where it can cause jet engines to fail, damage flight control systems and reduce visibility.

You can watch a live stream of the Reykjanes peninsula here.

Read more:
What is happening under the surface in Iceland?
How big could the Iceland eruption be?

How much damage will it cause?

How much disruption the eruption causes will depend on where the magma breaks the surface, and the size and style of the eruption, Dr Hartley said.

Dr Phil Collins from Brunel University London said an eruption would cause problems for the Icelandic people, but noted they are “very well prepared and have lots of experience in dealing with eruptions”.

“If the eruption does occur, there may be significant lava flows which could destroy peoples’ homes and other infrastructure, as well as block valleys and change surface drainage,” he said.

Any eruption is not expected to cause the kind of ash cloud created by the Eyjafjallajokull eruption back in 2010, which caused chaos to global air travel.

Dr Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist with the University of Lancaster said: “The volcanoes on the Reykjanes Peninsula do not have the ability to produce the disruptive ash clouds that characterised the Eyjafjallajokull 2010 eruption.”

Lessons were learnt from that event, he said, and even an identical eruption would not be so disruptive now.

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The most significant part of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s olive branch offering to Donald Trump

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The most significant part of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's olive branch offering to Donald Trump

Ukraine’s president is offering an olive branch to Donald Trump with a dramatic public message aimed at mending their relationship and ending Russia’s war.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy chose social media – the US leader’s favourite mode of communication – to make his point.

He did not go so far as to apologise for a fiery bust-up with Mr Trump at the Oval Office last Friday – a move that some members of the US administration have called for, even though it was the American president and his deputy JD Vance who laid into Mr Zelenskyy.

Instead, he described the encounter as “regrettable”, saying it “did not go the way it was supposed to be” and it was “time to make things right”.

Ukrainian servicemen fire a BM-21 Grad multiple-launch rocket system toward Russian troops on a front line near the town of Chasiv Yar
Tuesday, 25th February 2025, 08:48
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Ukrainian forces fire a missile towards Russian troops near Chasiv Yar. Pic: Reuters

Most significantly though was his spelling out of a vision for the first stage of how Russia’s war with Ukraine could end.

Pushing back on false claims by Trump allies such as Elon Musk that Mr Zelenskyy wants an endless war, he said that Ukraine is committed to peace and is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.

Crucially, he said: “We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky – ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure – and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same.”

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Appealing to the US president’s ego, he praised Mr Trump’s “strong leadership” and repeated his gratitude for past American support – again responding to criticism from the American commander in chief and his team that he is not showing enough gratitude.

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He also said Kyiv was ready to sign a key minerals deal with Washington – something else Mr Trump is seeking.

This message appears to be an attempt by Mr Zelenskyy to steer his relationship with Mr Trump back on track and to map out his idea for an end to the war – a conflict that Ukraine did not seek but which was brought to its land by Russia’s invading forces.

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, before their Oval Office bust-up. Pic: AP

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Canada warns ‘no winners in a trade war’
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Key now will be how the US president responds.

Will Mr Zelenskyy’s expression of regret and clear wish to end the war provide enough of an off-ramp for Mr Trump to defuse the row and – for the sake of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself – switch back on the flow of military assistance to the country?

Another major factor, of course, is how Vladimir Putin reacts and whether he could countenance a limited ceasefire in a war that he started and – unlike Mr Zelenskyy – appears to have no genuine desire to halt.

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Donald Trump confirms Mexico and Canada tariffs – prompting a stock sell-off

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Donald Trump confirms Mexico and Canada tariffs - prompting a stock sell-off

Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada have come into effect, as has an additional 10% on Chinese products, bringing the total import tax to 20%.

The US president confirmed the tariffs in a speech at the White House – and his announcement sent US and European stocks down sharply.

The tariffs will be felt heavily by US companies which have factories in Canada and Mexico, such as carmakers.

Mr Trump said: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”

There’s “no room left” for a deal that would see the tariffs shelved if fentanyl flowing into the US is curbed by its neighbours, he added.

Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy, the Trump administration confirmed.

And tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled, raising them from 10% to 20%.

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Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn). It added the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country if the US did not lift its sanctions against Canada.

China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and
“bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.

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What is America’s trade position?

Mr Trump’s speech stoked fears of a trade war in North America, prompting a financial market sell-off.

Stock market indexes the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.48% and 2.64% respectively on Monday.

The share prices for automobile companies including General Motors, which has significant truck production in Mexico, Automaker and Ford also fell.

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Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, an expert has said.

Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.

This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.

Read more:
The effects of Trump trade tariffs explained
Trump hits out at Zelenskyy again

The Trump administration is gearing up to bring in other tariffs in the coming weeks.

On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs will take effect on all countries that impose duties on US products.

He is also considering 25% tariffs on goods from the EU “very soon” after claiming the bloc was created to “screw the United States”.

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More than 30 killed in Bolivia bus crash – second deadly collision within days

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More than 30 killed in Bolivia bus crash - second deadly collision within days

A truck has collided with a bus in southern Bolivia, killing at least 31 people, according to police – just two days after a deadly crash claimed at least 37 lives.

Officers said the bus rolled some 500m (1,640ft) down a ravine after the collision on Monday, which took place on the highway between Oruro, in the Bolivian Altiplano, and the highland mining city of Potosi.

The driver of the truck has been arrested, while the cause of the accident is under investigation.

Police spokesperson Limbert Choque said men and women were among the dead, and 22 people suffered injuries.

** on right of picture are bodies ** First responders work at the site after a crash between a vehicle and a bus along a highway in Lenas, Potosi, southern Bolivia, March 3, 2025, in this handout image obtained from social media. Bolivia's Attorney General/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT
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Rescue teams operating at the site of the crash. Pic: Bolivia’s attorney general/Reuters

Bolivia’s President, Luis Arce, expressed condolences for the victims on social media: “This unfortunate event must be investigated to establish responsibilities,” he said in a post on Facebook.

“We send our most sincere condolences to the bereaved families, wishing them the necessary strength to face these difficult times.”

Map showing location of collision, which took place on the highway between Oruro, in the Bolivian Altiplano, and the highland mining city of Potosi.
Image:
The crash happened between Oruro and Potosi

On Saturday morning, a crash between two buses killed more than three dozen people in the same region.

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It happened between Colchani and the city of Uyuni, a major tourist attraction and the world’s largest salt flat.

People stand near the wreckage of one of the two buses involved in the crash.
Pic: Reuters/Potosi Departmental Command
Image:
People stand near the wreckage of one of the two buses involved in a crash on Saturday. Pic: Reuters/Potosi Departmental Command

Coincidentally, one of the buses was heading to Oruro, where one of the most important carnival celebrations in Latin America is currently taking place.

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More than 30 people were also killed after a bus crash on 17 February.

In that crash, police said the driver appeared to have lost control of the vehicle, causing it to drop more than 800m (2,600ft) off a precipice in the southwestern area of Yocalla.

Bolivia’s mountainous, undermaintained and poorly supervised roads are some of the deadliest in the world, claiming an average 1,400 fatalities every year.

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