Why Sunak’s new promise after Rwanda ruling looks extremely hard to keep
It was the prime minister’s day in court today, and he really needed a win.
Instead, the linchpin of his immigration plan – to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – is not just loose but lost.
For a leader who has said, on repeat, that he will stop the boats, Rishi Sunak had little option after this almighty setback to double down on the plan.
Politics latest: Labour frontbenchers resign over Starmer’s Gaza stance
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Sunak presses ahead with Rwanda plan
Appearing before the media after losing this case in the Supreme Court, Mr Sunak sounded determined and tough: Rwanda not safe for migrants? No matter – parliament will pass emergency laws to declare it safe and will disapply international law, such as the European Convention on Human Rights, when it comes to the government’s Rwanda policy.
And then there was this promise to voters: “Flights will be heading off in the spring as planned.”
It was tough talk and a clear plan but stop for a few minutes and you ask yourself: is this a prime minister on rinse and repeat, trying to change laws only to get bogged down, again?
First, if the Supreme Court says Rwanda isn’t a safe country, you can’t simply pass a law that says it is.
The prime minister might be able to push it through the Commons with his majority, but the House of Lords may well not want to vote to put anyone in harm’s way.
The suggestion by Mr Sunak that this is all straightforward is disingenuous to say the least.
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Beth Rigby on the Rwanda ruling
When I suggested to one government adviser that the prime minister might not be able to guarantee flights next spring given the legislative hoops he needs to jump through, they argued: “The Lords question is a question for Labour, not us – will they accept the will of parliament and the people that we must stop the boats?”
I suspect the answer to that will be a “no” and this will be neither a quick or easy process.
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Then there is the question of any domestic laws the prime minister does pass being challenged in the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
Read more:
Rwanda plan ruled unlawful by Supreme court
Explainer – how did the government policy end up in the courts?
Now, on that, the UK-Rwanda treaty might help, says former head government lawyer Jonathan Jones.
That’s because Strasbourg could issue an interim “rule 39” order to say the UK can’t allow flights to take off – as it did earlier this year – but it sounds like the prime minister would ignore it.
But what all of the above points to is that this is no quick fix and that matters politically, because the one big takeaway I heard from that media conference was that the flights will get off the ground next spring.
Those on the right of the party will be led by Suella Braverman agitating for the prime minister to withdraw from the ECHR now and get the flights going or face a new Tory civil war. The stakes could not be higher.
A prime minister’s announcement on next steps today raises more questions than it answers, while his new promise still, for now, looks extremely hard to keep.
When the history of the Sunak government is written, will “stop the boats” be remembered as an election-winning slogan or Mr Sunak’s political epitaph?
Politics
‘Shy’ Reform voters in Labour areas led to Farage’s party winning by-election, Harriet Harman says
“Shy” Reform voters in Labour areas led to Nigel Farage’s party winning the Runcorn by-election by just six votes, Labour peer Harriet Harman said.
The Runcorn and Helsby seat, created in 2024, went to Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin who defeated Labour candidate Karen Shore by six votes.
Reform overturned a 34.8% majority gained by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury last year before he stood down earlier this year after he punched a constituent on a night out.
It is the closest by-election result since records began in 1945.
Read more: Badenoch apologises to Tory councillors
Labour peer and former minister Baroness Harman told Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast: “If we’d have known it was so close, I, myself, would have gone on extra time there and got those six votes.
“So, there’s a real level of frustration and I’m sure there’ll be a post-mortem, but I think there’s a lot of talk about shy Reform voters in Labour areas.”
In the local elections, running at the same time, the Conservatives lost control of all 18 councils it was contesting, with Reform taking eight of those.
The party also won two of the six mayoral contests – Reform’s first two mayors.
Harriet Harman on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast
Baroness Harman said Labour now has “got to get on with delivering on the health service” and pointed out the minimum wage increase and breakfast clubs are only just being rolled out.
But she said the government also needs “more of a story” instead of just telling people to “bear with us” while it fixes what the Conservatives did.
“It seems to be that Farage has got no delivery, as yet, and all the story, whereas the government is really getting on with delivery, but it hasn’t got a big enough story about what that fits,” she said.
Read more: Reform’s political earthquake is now shaking our political system
An installation represents a bus stop during Reform UK’s local elections campaign launch in Birmingham. Pic: Reuters
She added that “Blue Labour” MPs – a socially Conservative wing of the Labour Party – “will be emboldened to press for further action” on issues like immigration, which they want to see a tougher stance on.
“There’s been grumbling about the big salience of the concerns of the winter fuel payment, but I don’t see there being any change on that,” she said.
Baroness Harman said she does not think the by-election and local election results were “utterly predictable” and will not lead to any splits or instability within the party.
Kemi Badenoch has apologised to Tory councillors who lost their seats after Reform made massive gains at the Conservatives’ expense in Thursday’s local elections.
The Conservative leader said she knew it was “disappointing” and that she was “sincerely sorry”, but added: “We are going to win those seats back – that is my job now.”
The Tories lost overall control of all 18 councils they had been in charge of that were up for election. There were 23 councils in the race in total.
Politics latest: Sky News analysis shows Reform surge in estimated national vote
A particularly bad loss was Buckinghamshire, which has been under Tory control since 1973 when local government was reorganised. The Conservatives lost overall control by just one seat after losing 29 seats.
Reform, which has never run in local elections before, gained eight councils from the Tories, one that had no overall control previously and one from Labour – the only Labour council up for grabs in this election.
Nigel Farage with the new Runcorn and Helsby MP Sarah Pochin. Pic: Reuters
The Lib Dems won Shropshire from the Tories, as well as Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire – both of which had no overall control before.
The Conservatives had one win, with Paul Bristow being voted in as Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayor, previously held by Labour.
Reform’s first major win of the election was the Runcorn and Helsby by-election where Labour lost to Reform by six votes. It was triggered by ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigning after his conviction for punching a constituent.
Sir Keir Starmer said he “gets” why his party suffered defeat there and the results show “we must deliver that change ever more quickly, we must go even further”.
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Tories suffer heavy defeats
Addressing the Conservatives’ abysmal results, Ms Badenoch said: “Other parties may be winning now, but we are going to show that we can deliver and that we are on course and recovering.
“But they [the public] are still not yet ready to trust us,” she added.
“We have a big job to do to rebuild trust with the public.
“That’s the job that the Conservative Party has given me, and I’m going to make sure that we get ourselves back to the place where we are seen as being a credible alternative to Labour.”
Read more:
Reform’s political earthquake is now shaking our political system
Reform wins two new mayoral contests
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Farage: ‘This is Reform-quake’
Ms Badenoch said Labour’s election results showed Sir Keir Starmer “is on course to be a one-term prime minister”.
However, when asked if she would still be leader at the next general election, Ms Badenoch dodged the question and said: “I’m not playing all these questions that the media loves to ask about my future.
“This is not about me.”
She insisted she was the right person to lead the Conservatives, as she was chosen by the party’s members.
“I told them it wouldn’t be easy, I told them it would require a renewal and rebuilding of our party,” she said.
“That doesn’t happen in six months. I’m trying to do something that no one has ever done before, which is take their party from such a historic defeat back into government in one term.”
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