It was the prime minister’s day in court today, and he really needed a win.
Instead, the linchpin of his immigration plan – to send asylum seekers to Rwanda – is not just loose but lost.
For a leader who has said, on repeat, that he will stop the boats, Rishi Sunak had little option after this almighty setback to double down on the plan.
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1:44
Sunak presses ahead with Rwanda plan
Appearing before the media after losing this case in the Supreme Court, Mr Sunak sounded determined and tough: Rwanda not safe for migrants? No matter – parliament will pass emergency laws to declare it safe and will disapply international law, such as the European Convention on Human Rights, when it comes to the government’s Rwanda policy.
And then there was this promise to voters: “Flights will be heading off in the spring as planned.”
It was tough talk and a clear plan but stop for a few minutes and you ask yourself: is this a prime minister on rinse and repeat, trying to change laws only to get bogged down, again?
First, if the Supreme Court says Rwanda isn’t a safe country, you can’t simply pass a law that says it is.
The prime minister might be able to push it through the Commons with his majority, but the House of Lords may well not want to vote to put anyone in harm’s way.
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The suggestion by Mr Sunak that this is all straightforward is disingenuous to say the least.
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4:14
Beth Rigby on the Rwanda ruling
When I suggested to one government adviser that the prime minister might not be able to guarantee flights next spring given the legislative hoops he needs to jump through, they argued: “The Lords question is a question for Labour, not us – will they accept the will of parliament and the people that we must stop the boats?”
I suspect the answer to that will be a “no” and this will be neither a quick or easy process.
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Now, on that, the UK-Rwanda treaty might help, says former head government lawyer Jonathan Jones.
That’s because Strasbourg could issue an interim “rule 39” order to say the UK can’t allow flights to take off – as it did earlier this year – but it sounds like the prime minister would ignore it.
But what all of the above points to is that this is no quick fix and that matters politically, because the one big takeaway I heard from that media conference was that the flights will get off the ground next spring.
Those on the right of the party will be led by Suella Braverman agitating for the prime minister to withdraw from the ECHR now and get the flights going or face a new Tory civil war. The stakes could not be higher.
A prime minister’s announcement on next steps today raises more questions than it answers, while his new promise still, for now, looks extremely hard to keep.
When the history of the Sunak government is written, will “stop the boats” be remembered as an election-winning slogan or Mr Sunak’s political epitaph?
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Sir Ed Davey has refused to rule out striking a deal with Sir Keir Starmer in order to stop Nigel Farage from entering Number 10.
Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, the Liberal Democrat leader said he would “wait to see the result of the next election” before deciding on any agreement with Labour.
Asked whether he would ever do a deal with Sir Keir, the party chief said: “Look, when it comes to deals with other parties beyond Reform, let’s wait to see the result of the next election.”
Sir Ed, who was speaking during the party’s conference in Bournemouth, categorically ruled out doing any kind of deal with Mr Farage’s party, despite its current lead in the polls.
He said: “That’s not going to happen. The truth is with the Reform Party, they represent values which are the complete polar opposite.”
The Lib Dem leader said he believed Mr Farage was seeking to mimic the politics of US President Donald Trump.
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“I think people are worried about the direction of our country, because often in the past, sometimes we have seen a bit of American influence in our country,” he said.
“We’re seeing a lot more of it. And people look at Trump’s America and what he’s doing to it and are really fearful for democracy.”
‘If we win the right seats, it stops Reform getting a majority’
Asked whether he felt he had a “moral responsibility” to keep Reform out of power by forming an alliance with other progressive parties, Sir Ed suggested it was not necessary because “we can stop Reform by ourselves”.
“If Liberal Democrats keep winning seats and build on our best result for 100 years, at the last general election, we can stop Reform by ourselves,” he said.
“We can deprive them of the seats that they would need to form a majority. And then the arithmetic of them getting to power falls to pieces.
“If we win the right seats, it stops them getting a majority and I am determined to target our resources to stop them winning the seats that will put them into power. And that’s because in our elections, it’s seat by seat, so many seats we took off the Tories last time, if we hadn’t done, Reform might have done.”
He added: “We didn’t have pacts last time. We’re not going to have pacts in the future.”
Sir Ed has been the only English party leader to explicitly criticise Mr Trump, and even refused an invitation to the state banquet with the King at Windsor Castle as part of the US president’s state visit last week.
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The Lib Dem leader refused to apologise for the remark and denied it was “irresponsible” to call Mr Musk a criminal when no charges had been laid against him.
Elsewhere in the interview, Sir Ed was challenged about his leadership style and whether the publicity stunts he famously relied on in the election were “appropriate” when the country was going through profound political and economic challenges.
Beth Rigby highlighted reports showing that his own MPs had expressed a desire for their leader to “drop bullshit stunts and raise your game”.
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3:32
Will Ed Davey’s immigration policies appeal to voters?
In response, Sir Ed said he didn’t think politics was “a joke” and that he was able to make “serious points” while engaging in stunts to attract attention.
“What happened was the cameras came there and they interviewed me and allowed me to give my serious points,” he said.
“And, in previous elections, we haven’t been able to do that. And when I was able to give the serious points on behalf of Liberal Democrats, we got our best result for 100 years.”
Image: Sir Ed Davey falls into the water while paddleboarding during the General Election campaign trail in 2024. Pic: PA
He added: “The huge number of MPs who want to be part of my stunt suggests that they want to be part of it.
“We’re not just stuffy old politicians, we’re ordinary people like them”.
On the question of whether he would lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election, Sir Ed replied: “Yes.”