Nick Martin, co-founder and CEO of Joe Coffee, is so concerned about the state of the economy that he’s looking for ways his company can save money. One main area for cuts: software.
Martin started the Seattle-based company with his brother, Brenden, to help local coffee shops better compete with Starbucks, by making it easier for them to fulfill mobile orders, track analyticsand automate their marketing.
While their 8-year-old business has held pretty steady through the economic dip that started in 2022, Martin said he’s seeing evidence that people are now buying fewer lattes than they did a year ago. Any consumer slowdown is a potentially troubling sign for Joe Coffee’s customers, and the company is proactively tightening its belt.
Martin, 38, told CNBC that Joe Coffee has reduced its number of subscriptions to HubSpot, a marketing automation software vendor, and is closely examining its spending with payment processor Stripe to see if its agreement with the company will be worth renewing.
“Every subscription we have is under a magnifying glass,” Martin told CNBC. “We have to have a really good business case to do new expenditures.”
The Martin brothers aren’t alone, based on the latest earnings reports from software businesses that serve small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which could be your local shoe store, a small restaurant chain or the neighborhood spa.
HubSpot, Bill Holdings, Paycom and ZoomInfo all warned investors of potential trouble on the horizon. Their comments reflect broader economic data, which shows that consumers are feeling the ongoing effects of inflation and high interest rates.
Retail sales for October fell 0.1%, underscoring pressure from higher prices. The consumer price index for last month increased 3.2% on an annual basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Joe Coffee founders Nick and Brenden Martin
Joe Coffee
Wall Street is on edge. While broad market indexes are up slightly since midyear, tech companies that specialize in the SMB space are hurting.
Paycom, which provides payroll and human resources software, saw its stock plunge 38% on Nov. 1, the day after the company said revenue growth in 2024 would be 10% to 12%, way below analysts’ expectations for growth above 20%.
Two days after Paycom’s drop, shares of Bill plummeted 25%. The company, whose software helps clients track and control their payables and receivables, reduced its profit and revenue guidance for 2024. Bill’s finance chief, John Rettig, said on the earnings call that the company is “operating in an environment of increasing economic choppiness and small businesses are under increasing pressure to adjust to the current realities.”
On the last day of October, ZoomInfo shares tumbled 16% on a weaker-than-expected forecast for the fourth quarter. CFO Cameron Hyzer told analysts that it “continues to be a tough world out there” for revenue retention. ZoomInfo helps sales and marketing teams track leads and customers.
HubSpot shares dropped 6.1% after its earnings report last week, though the stock has since recovered. The company’s outlook was largely in line with estimates, but growth is slowing and CEO Yamini Rangan described the environment as “choppy and challenging” with clients “continuing to optimize spend.”
“Sales cycles remain lumpy, budgets are still under scrutiny and buying urgency remains low,” Rangan said on the earnings call.
Representatives from Paycom, ZoomInfo, HubSpot and Bill didn’t respond to requests for comment. Since June 30, the stocks are down between 12% and 49%. The Nasdaq is up more than 2% over that stretch.
Fighting for the little guy
The sector of the market those companies serve is critical to the domestic economy. Over the past two decades, small businesses have accounted for 40% of U.S. gross domestic product, according to the Chamber of Commerce.They also employ 46% of the American workforce.
Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, said results from Paycom and other SMB providers offer a window into the state of the economy.
“Anytime people don’t feel wealthy, they tend to pull back,” said Dollarhide.
The Martins know what it’s like dealing with the everyday challenges of making ends meet. Their father’s small business made sheds in their hometown of West Richland, Washington, about 200 miles southeast of Seattle, until bigger companies came into town and ran it into the ground.
“If America is really built on the backbone of small business owners, why are they the ones that never catch the break?” said Brenden Martin, Nick’s younger brother. “Why isn’t there anybody out there fighting for them? For us, that’s our primary driver.”
The Martin brothers have backgrounds in technology. They both worked at Microsoft, and Nick went from there to Zillow, while Brenden had jobs in product strategy and web development at various companies.
Zhang Peng | Getty Images
They also both loved the role coffee shops play in communities, having worked as baristas in the past, and wanted to help small cafes fend off Starbucks.
When Starbucks launched mobile ordering in 2015, Joe Coffee wasn’t yet up and running. But the brothers could see an imminent opportunity in the market.
“At first we were like, crap we missed our shot,” Brenden said. “And then we realized, well no, small businesses still need this.”
They got their big break in August 2018 at Coffee Fest, a venue for coffee brands to debut their products and services. Just before the event in Los Angeles, the Martins learned they’d received $1 million in funding, their first outside investment.
They initially built a mobile-order-only platform, but the Covid pandemic created a whole new set of demands from customers who were struggling to stay afloat. In 2021, Joe Coffee, which now has 17 employees, created a full software and payments suite for coffee shops.
For Joe Coffee’s business to work, its technology has to create almost immediate revenue and profit gains for its customers, which are already operating on tight budgets. The company doesn’t charge a recurring subscription, but only a percent of each transaction.
‘Nice to have’
Nick Martin cited higher borrowing costs as a main reason that Joe Coffee has reduced the number of software products it buys. The company now has roughly six software subscriptions, down from 12 to 15, accounting for 3% to 5% of operating expenses, down from around 8%, he said.
Decisions on what to get rid of are based on whether a product is a “nice to have” or is essential to business operations.
“Can we get away with just doing this in a spreadsheet?” he said. That’s how the company decided which HubSpot services to cut. Joe Coffee is still a HubSpot subscriber but is paying for fewer seats and fewer tools, Martin said.
As for Stripe, which is privately held, Joe Coffee is looking for other payment processors that have lower fees, Martin added.
Stripe said it doesn’t comment on specific customers.
The macroeconomic story will show up differently for software companies, depending on their revenue models and their reliance on certain industries.
Bill could see a more immediate impact than others because more than three-quarters of its core revenue comes from the money it makes on transactions, while the rest comes from subscriptions, which are contract based.
“What Bill is more exposed to would be the payment volume that’s coming from those SMBs,” said Taylor McGinnis, an analyst at UBSwho follows Bill, ZoomInfo and HubSpot.
Investors across the sector are trying to figure out if SMB spending has bottomed or if businesses are still looking for opportunities to slim down their software portfolio should the economic picture dampen further.
“I think what we’ve learned, especially in B2B, is it’s more macro driven than we’re used to,” said Bryan Keane, an analyst at Deutsche Bank who covers software and payments companies.“If there’s another shoe to drop, there’s still going to be some downside risk.”
Formula One F1 – United States Grand Prix – Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas, U.S. – October 23, 2022 Tim Cook waves the chequered flag to the race winner Red Bull’s Max Verstappen
Mike Segar | Reuters
Apple had two major launches last month. They couldn’t have been more different.
First, Apple revealed some of the artificial intelligence advancements it had been working on in the past year when it released developer versions of its operating systems to muted applause at its annual developer’s conference, WWDC. Then, at the end of the month, Apple hit the red carpet as its first true blockbuster movie, “F1,” debuted to over $155 million — and glowing reviews — in its first weekend.
While “F1” was a victory lap for Apple, highlighting the strength of its long-term outlook, the growth of its services business and its ability to tap into culture, Wall Street’s reaction to the company’s AI announcements at WWDC suggest there’s some trouble underneath the hood.
“F1” showed Apple at its best — in particular, its ability to invest in new, long-term projects. When Apple TV+ launched in 2019, it had only a handful of original shows and one movie, a film festival darling called “Hala” that didn’t even share its box office revenue.
Despite Apple TV+being written off as a costly side-project, Apple stuck with its plan over the years, expanding its staff and operation in Culver City, California. That allowed the company to build up Hollywood connections, especially for TV shows, and build an entertainment track record. Now, an Apple Original can lead the box office on a summer weekend, the prime season for blockbuster films.
The success of “F1” also highlights Apple’s significant marketing machine and ability to get big-name talent to appear with its leadership. Apple pulled out all the stops to market the movie, including using its Wallet app to send a push notification with a discount for tickets to the film. To promote “F1,” Cook appeared with movie star Brad Pitt at an Apple store in New York and posted a video with actual F1 racer Lewis Hamilton, who was one of the film’s producers.
(L-R) Brad Pitt, Lewis Hamilton, Tim Cook, and Damson Idris attend the World Premiere of “F1: The Movie” in Times Square on June 16, 2025 in New York City.
Jamie Mccarthy | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Although Apple services chief Eddy Cue said in a recent interview that Apple needs the its film business to be profitable to “continue to do great things,” “F1” isn’t just about the bottom line for the company.
Apple’s Hollywood productions are perhaps the most prominent face of the company’s services business, a profit engine that has been an investor favorite since the iPhone maker started highlighting the division in 2016.
Films will only ever be a small fraction of the services unit, which also includes payments, iCloud subscriptions, magazine bundles, Apple Music, game bundles, warranties, fees related to digital payments and ad sales. Plus, even the biggest box office smashes would be small on Apple’s scale — the company does over $1 billion in sales on average every day.
But movies are the only services component that can get celebrities like Pitt or George Clooney to appear next to an Apple logo — and the success of “F1” means that Apple could do more big popcorn films in the future.
“Nothing breeds success or inspires future investment like a current success,” said Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
But if “F1” is a sign that Apple’s services business is in full throttle, the company’s AI struggles are a “check engine” light that won’t turn off.
Replacing Siri’s engine
At WWDC last month, Wall Street was eager to hear about the company’s plans for Apple Intelligence, its suite of AI features that it first revealed in 2024. Apple Intelligence, which is a key tenet of the company’s hardware products, had a rollout marred by delays and underwhelming features.
Apple spent most of WWDC going over smaller machine learning features, but did not reveal what investors and consumers increasingly want: A sophisticated Siri that can converse fluidly and get stuff done, like making a restaurant reservation. In the age of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude and Google’s Gemini, the expectation of AI assistants among consumers is growing beyond “Siri, how’s the weather?”
The company had previewed a significantly improved Siri in the summer of 2024, but earlier this year, those features were delayed to sometime in 2026. At WWDC, Apple didn’t offer any updates about the improved Siri beyond that the company was “continuing its work to deliver” the features in the “coming year.” Some observers reduced their expectations for Apple’s AI after the conference.
“Current expectations for Apple Intelligence to kickstart a super upgrade cycle are too high, in our view,” wrote Jefferies analysts this week.
Siri should be an example of how Apple’s ability to improve products and projects over the long-term makes it tough to compete with.
It beat nearly every other voice assistant to market when it first debuted on iPhones in 2011. Fourteen years later, Siri remains essentially the same one-off, rigid, question-and-answer system that struggles with open-ended questions and dates, even after the invention in recent years of sophisticated voice bots based on generative AI technology that can hold a conversation.
Apple’s strongest rivals, including Android parent Google, have done way more to integrate sophisticated AI assistants into their devices than Apple has. And Google doesn’t have the same reflex against collecting data and cloud processing as privacy-obsessed Apple.
Some analysts have said they believe Apple has a few years before the company’s lack of competitive AI features will start to show up in device sales, given the company’s large installed base and high customer loyalty. But Apple can’t get lapped before it re-enters the race, and its former design guru Jony Ive is now working on new hardware with OpenAI, ramping up the pressure in Cupertino.
“The three-year problem, which is within an investment time frame, is that Android is racing ahead,” Needham senior internet analyst Laura Martin said on CNBC this week.
Apple’s services success with projects like “F1” is an example of what the company can do when it sets clear goals in public and then executes them over extended time-frames.
Its AI strategy could use a similar long-term plan, as customers and investors wonder when Apple will fully embrace the technology that has captivated Silicon Valley.
Wall Street’s anxiety over Apple’s AI struggles was evident this week after Bloomberg reported that Apple was considering replacing Siri’s engine with Anthropic or OpenAI’s technology, as opposed to its own foundation models.
The move, if it were to happen, would contradict one of Apple’s most important strategies in the Cook era: Apple wants to own its core technologies, like the touchscreen, processor, modem and maps software, not buy them from suppliers.
Using external technology would be an admission that Apple Foundation Models aren’t good enough yet for what the company wants to do with Siri.
“They’ve fallen farther and farther behind, and they need to supercharge their generative AI efforts” Martin said. “They can’t do that internally.”
Apple might even pay billions for the use of Anthropic’s AI software, according to the Bloombergreport. If Apple were to pay for AI, it would be a reversal from current services deals, like the search deal with Alphabet where the Cupertino company gets paid $20 billion per year to push iPhone traffic to Google Search.
The company didn’t confirm the report and declined comment, but Wall Street welcomed the report and Apple shares rose.
In the world of AI in Silicon Valley, signing bonuses for the kinds of engineers that can develop new models can range up to $100 million, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
“I can’t see Apple doing that,” Martin said.
Earlier this week, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg sent a memo bragging about hiring 11 AI experts from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google’s DeepMind. That came after Zuckerberg hired Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang to lead a new AI division as part of a $14.3 billion deal.
Meta’s not the only company to spend hundreds of millions on AI celebrities to get them in the building. Google spent big to hire away the founders of Character.AI, Microsoft got its AI leader by striking a deal with Inflection and Amazon hired the executive team of Adept to bulk up its AI roster.
Apple, on the other hand, hasn’t announced any big AI hires in recent years. While Cook rubs shoulders with Pitt, the actual race may be passing Apple by.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks alongside U.S. President Donald Trump to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who bombarded President Donald Trump‘s signature spending bill for weeks, on Friday made his first comments since the legislation passed.
Musk backed a post on X by Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who said the bill’s budget “explodes the deficit” and continues a pattern of “short-term politicking over long-term sustainability.”
The House of Representatives narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on Thursday, sending it to Trump to sign into law.
Paul and Musk have been vocal opponents of Trump’s tax and spending bill, and repeatedly called out the potential for the spending package to increase the national debt.
The independent Congressional Budget Office has said the bill could add $3.4 trillion to the $36.2 trillion of U.S. debt over the next decade. The White House has labeled the agency as “partisan” and continuously refuted the CBO’s estimates.
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The bill includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts, increased spending for immigration enforcement and large cuts to funding for Medicaid and other programs.
It also cuts tax credits and support for solar and wind energy and electric vehicles, a particularly sore spot for Musk, who has several companies that benefit from the programs.
“I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in a social media post in early June as the pair traded insults and threats.
Shares of Tesla plummeted as the feud intensified, with the company losing $152 billion in market cap on June 5 and putting the company below $1 trillion in value. The stock has largely rebounded since, but is still below where it was trading before the ruckus with Trump.
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Tesla one-month stock chart.
— CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger and Erin Doherty contributed to this article.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks at the Axel Springer building in Berlin on Oct. 17, 2023. He received the annual Axel Springer Award.
Ben Kriemann | Getty Images
Among the thousands of Microsoft employees who lost their jobs in the cutbacks announced this week were 830 staffers in the company’s home state of Washington.
Nearly a dozen game design workers in the state were part of the layoffs, along with three audio designers, two mechanical engineers, one optical engineer and one lab technician, according to a document Microsoft submitted to Washington employment officials.
There were also five individual contributors and one manager at the Microsoft Research division in the cuts, as well as 10 lawyers and six hardware engineers, the document shows.
Microsoft announced plans on Wednesday to eliminate 9,000 jobs, as part of an effort to eliminate redundancy and to encourage employees to focus on more meaningful work by adopting new technologies, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. The person asked not to be named while discussing private matters.
Scores of Microsoft salespeople and video game developers have since come forward on social media to announce their departure. In April, Microsoft said revenue from Xbox content and services grew 8%, trailing overall growth of 13%.
In sales, the company parted ways with 16 customer success account management staff members based in Washington, 28 in sales strategy enablement and another five in sales compensation. One Washington-based government affairs worker was also laid off.
Microsoft eliminated 17 jobs in cloud solution architecture in the state, according to the document. The company’s fastest revenue growth comes from Azure and other cloud services that customers buy based on usage.
CEO Satya Nadella has not publicly commented on the layoffs, and Microsoft didn’t immediately provide a comment about the cuts in Washington. On a conference call with analysts in April, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said the company had a “focus on cost efficiencies” during the March quarter.