Nick Martin, co-founder and CEO of Joe Coffee, is so concerned about the state of the economy that he’s looking for ways his company can save money. One main area for cuts: software.
Martin started the Seattle-based company with his brother, Brenden, to help local coffee shops better compete with Starbucks, by making it easier for them to fulfill mobile orders, track analyticsand automate their marketing.
While their 8-year-old business has held pretty steady through the economic dip that started in 2022, Martin said he’s seeing evidence that people are now buying fewer lattes than they did a year ago. Any consumer slowdown is a potentially troubling sign for Joe Coffee’s customers, and the company is proactively tightening its belt.
Martin, 38, told CNBC that Joe Coffee has reduced its number of subscriptions to HubSpot, a marketing automation software vendor, and is closely examining its spending with payment processor Stripe to see if its agreement with the company will be worth renewing.
“Every subscription we have is under a magnifying glass,” Martin told CNBC. “We have to have a really good business case to do new expenditures.”
The Martin brothers aren’t alone, based on the latest earnings reports from software businesses that serve small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which could be your local shoe store, a small restaurant chain or the neighborhood spa.
HubSpot, Bill Holdings, Paycom and ZoomInfo all warned investors of potential trouble on the horizon. Their comments reflect broader economic data, which shows that consumers are feeling the ongoing effects of inflation and high interest rates.
Retail sales for October fell 0.1%, underscoring pressure from higher prices. The consumer price index for last month increased 3.2% on an annual basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Joe Coffee founders Nick and Brenden Martin
Joe Coffee
Wall Street is on edge. While broad market indexes are up slightly since midyear, tech companies that specialize in the SMB space are hurting.
Paycom, which provides payroll and human resources software, saw its stock plunge 38% on Nov. 1, the day after the company said revenue growth in 2024 would be 10% to 12%, way below analysts’ expectations for growth above 20%.
Two days after Paycom’s drop, shares of Bill plummeted 25%. The company, whose software helps clients track and control their payables and receivables, reduced its profit and revenue guidance for 2024. Bill’s finance chief, John Rettig, said on the earnings call that the company is “operating in an environment of increasing economic choppiness and small businesses are under increasing pressure to adjust to the current realities.”
On the last day of October, ZoomInfo shares tumbled 16% on a weaker-than-expected forecast for the fourth quarter. CFO Cameron Hyzer told analysts that it “continues to be a tough world out there” for revenue retention. ZoomInfo helps sales and marketing teams track leads and customers.
HubSpot shares dropped 6.1% after its earnings report last week, though the stock has since recovered. The company’s outlook was largely in line with estimates, but growth is slowing and CEO Yamini Rangan described the environment as “choppy and challenging” with clients “continuing to optimize spend.”
“Sales cycles remain lumpy, budgets are still under scrutiny and buying urgency remains low,” Rangan said on the earnings call.
Representatives from Paycom, ZoomInfo, HubSpot and Bill didn’t respond to requests for comment. Since June 30, the stocks are down between 12% and 49%. The Nasdaq is up more than 2% over that stretch.
Fighting for the little guy
The sector of the market those companies serve is critical to the domestic economy. Over the past two decades, small businesses have accounted for 40% of U.S. gross domestic product, according to the Chamber of Commerce.They also employ 46% of the American workforce.
Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, said results from Paycom and other SMB providers offer a window into the state of the economy.
“Anytime people don’t feel wealthy, they tend to pull back,” said Dollarhide.
The Martins know what it’s like dealing with the everyday challenges of making ends meet. Their father’s small business made sheds in their hometown of West Richland, Washington, about 200 miles southeast of Seattle, until bigger companies came into town and ran it into the ground.
“If America is really built on the backbone of small business owners, why are they the ones that never catch the break?” said Brenden Martin, Nick’s younger brother. “Why isn’t there anybody out there fighting for them? For us, that’s our primary driver.”
The Martin brothers have backgrounds in technology. They both worked at Microsoft, and Nick went from there to Zillow, while Brenden had jobs in product strategy and web development at various companies.
Zhang Peng | Getty Images
They also both loved the role coffee shops play in communities, having worked as baristas in the past, and wanted to help small cafes fend off Starbucks.
When Starbucks launched mobile ordering in 2015, Joe Coffee wasn’t yet up and running. But the brothers could see an imminent opportunity in the market.
“At first we were like, crap we missed our shot,” Brenden said. “And then we realized, well no, small businesses still need this.”
They got their big break in August 2018 at Coffee Fest, a venue for coffee brands to debut their products and services. Just before the event in Los Angeles, the Martins learned they’d received $1 million in funding, their first outside investment.
They initially built a mobile-order-only platform, but the Covid pandemic created a whole new set of demands from customers who were struggling to stay afloat. In 2021, Joe Coffee, which now has 17 employees, created a full software and payments suite for coffee shops.
For Joe Coffee’s business to work, its technology has to create almost immediate revenue and profit gains for its customers, which are already operating on tight budgets. The company doesn’t charge a recurring subscription, but only a percent of each transaction.
‘Nice to have’
Nick Martin cited higher borrowing costs as a main reason that Joe Coffee has reduced the number of software products it buys. The company now has roughly six software subscriptions, down from 12 to 15, accounting for 3% to 5% of operating expenses, down from around 8%, he said.
Decisions on what to get rid of are based on whether a product is a “nice to have” or is essential to business operations.
“Can we get away with just doing this in a spreadsheet?” he said. That’s how the company decided which HubSpot services to cut. Joe Coffee is still a HubSpot subscriber but is paying for fewer seats and fewer tools, Martin said.
As for Stripe, which is privately held, Joe Coffee is looking for other payment processors that have lower fees, Martin added.
Stripe said it doesn’t comment on specific customers.
The macroeconomic story will show up differently for software companies, depending on their revenue models and their reliance on certain industries.
Bill could see a more immediate impact than others because more than three-quarters of its core revenue comes from the money it makes on transactions, while the rest comes from subscriptions, which are contract based.
“What Bill is more exposed to would be the payment volume that’s coming from those SMBs,” said Taylor McGinnis, an analyst at UBSwho follows Bill, ZoomInfo and HubSpot.
Investors across the sector are trying to figure out if SMB spending has bottomed or if businesses are still looking for opportunities to slim down their software portfolio should the economic picture dampen further.
“I think what we’ve learned, especially in B2B, is it’s more macro driven than we’re used to,” said Bryan Keane, an analyst at Deutsche Bank who covers software and payments companies.“If there’s another shoe to drop, there’s still going to be some downside risk.”
The Space Exploration develops a product called Nyx, a reusable capsule that can be launched from rockets into space carrying passengers and cargo.
The Exploration Company (TEC) announced Monday it has raised $160 million to fuel development of its capsule that is designed to take astronauts and cargo to space stations.
Venture capital firms Balderton Capital and Plural were the lead investors in the round which also included French government-backed investment vehicle French Tech Souveraineté and German government-backed fund DeepTech & Climate Fonds.
TEC’s core product is Nyx, a capsule that can be launched from rockets into space carrying passengers and cargo. Nyx is reusable so once it has dropped its payload, it can re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere and be used for the next mission.
“It’s a big market, and it’s growing about a bit more than 10% per year because more nations want to fly their astronauts and more nations want to go to the moon,” Hélène Huby, founder and CEO of TEC, told CNBC in an interview.
“So there is an increased demand for sending people to stations, sending cargo to stations,” she said.
This part of the market has very few players. Some of the biggest are SpaceX which has a capsule called Dragon. There are also rivals from China and Russia.
“We said, ‘okay, let’s build this capacity in Europe so that Europe can have its own capsule and also the world needs an alternative solution. [We] cannot only bet on SpaceX,” Huby said.
TEC is currently developing the second version of Nyx which it expects to launch next year, followed by a final version in 2028. This model will be partly financed by the European Space Agency.
Huby said the company has signed $800 million in contracts to use its capsule. These include mission contracts with companies including Starlab, which is designing a new space station, and Axiom Space.
There is increasing activity in space among nations including China, the U.S. and India. One of the most ambitious projects is the NASA-led Gateway, which will be the first space station to orbit the moon.
“If you have more people, you also have a need for more cargo. So this is what is happening around the Earth and around the moon,” Huby said.
Huby sees TEC being a key player when it comes to developing the technology that is needed to return cargo to Earth once it has been in space.
“This is also where we where we believe our vehicle is going to play an important role,” Huby said.
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies speaks during the Digital X event on September 07, 2021 in Cologne, Germany.
Andreas Rentz | Getty Images
Palantir shares continued their torrid run on Friday, soaring as much as 9% to a record, after the developer of software for the military announced plans to transfer its listing to the Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange.
The stock jumped past $64.50 in afternoon trading, lifting the company’s market cap to $147 billion. The shares are now up more than 50% since Palantir’s better-than-expected earnings report last week and have almost quadrupled in value this year.
Palantir said late Thursday that it expects to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 26, under its existing ticker symbol “PLTR.” While changing listing sites does nothing to alter a company’s fundamentals, board member Alexander Moore, a partner at venture firm 8VC, suggested in a post on X that the move could be a win for retail investors because “it will force” billions of dollars in purchases by exchange-traded funds.
“Everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following,” Moore wrote, referring to a term popularized in the crypto community for long-term believers.
Moore appears to have subsequently deleted his X account. His firm, 8VC, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Last Monday after market close, Palantir reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates and issued a fourth-quarter forecast that was also ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. CEO Alex Karp wrote in the earnings release that the company “absolutely eviscerated this quarter,” driven by demand for artificial intelligence technologies.
U.S. government revenue increased 40% from a year earlier to $320 million, while U.S. commercial revenue rose 54% to $179 million. On the earnings call, the company highlighted a five-year contract to expand its Maven technology across the U.S. military. Palantir established Maven in 2017 to provide AI tools to the Department of Defense.
The post-earnings rally coincides with the period following last week’s presidential election. Palantir is seen as a potential beneficiary given the company’s ties to the Trump camp. Co-founder and Chairman Peter Thiel was a major booster of Donald Trump’s first victorious campaign, though he had a public falling out with Trump in the ensuing years.
When asked in June about his position on the 2024 election, Thiel said, “If you hold a gun to my head I’ll vote for Trump.”
Thiel’s Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.
In September, S&P Global announced Palantir would join the S&P 500 stock index.
Analysts at Argus Research say the rally has pushed the stock too high given the current financials and growth projections. The analysts still have a long-term buy rating on the stock and said in a report last week that the company had a “stellar” quarter, but they downgraded their 12-month recommendation to a hold.
The stock “may be getting ahead of what the company fundamentals can support,” the analysts wrote.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. The trade show runs through June 7.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro Computer could be headed down a path to getting kicked off the Nasdaq as soon as Monday.
That’s the potential fate for the server company if it fails to file a viable plan for becoming compliant with Nasdaq regulations. Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. Many investors were expecting clarity from Super Micro when the company reported preliminary quarterly results last week. But they didn’t get it.
The primary component of that plan is how and when Super Micro will file its 2024 year-end report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and why it was late. That report is something many expected would be filed alongside the company’s June fourth-quarter earnings but was not.
The Nasdaq delisting process represents a crossroads for Super Micro, which has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom due to its longstanding relationship with Nvidia and surging demand for the chipmaker’s graphics processing units.
The one-time AI darling is reeling after a stretch of bad news. After Super Micro failed to file its annual report over the summer, activist short seller Hindenburg Research targeted the company in August, alleging accounting fraud and export control issues. The company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, stepped down in October, and Super Micro said last week that it was still trying to find a new one.
The stock is getting hammered. After the shares soared more than 14-fold from the end of 2022 to their peak in March of this year, they’ve since plummeted by 85%. Super Micro’s stock is now equal to where it was trading in May 2022, after falling another 11% on Thursday.
Getting delisted from the Nasdaq could be next if Super Micro doesn’t file a compliance plan by the Monday deadline or if the exchange rejects the company’s submission. Super Micro could also get an extension from the Nasdaq, giving it months to come into compliance. The company said Thursday that it would provide a plan to the Nasdaq in time.
A spokesperson told CNBC the company “intends to take all necessary steps to achieve compliance with the Nasdaq continued listing requirements as soon as possible.”
While the delisting issue mainly affects the stock, it could also hurt Super Micro’s reputation and standing with its customers, who may prefer to simply avoid the drama and buy AI servers from rivals such as Dell or HPE.
“Given that Super Micro’s accounting concerns have become more acute since Super Micro’s quarter ended, its weakness could ultimately benefit Dell more in the coming quarter,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note this week.
A representative for the Nasdaq said the exchange doesn’t comment on the delisting process for individual companies, but the rules suggest the process could take about a year before a final decision.
A plan of compliance
The Nasdaq warned Super Micro on Sept. 17 that it was at risk of being delisted. That gave the company 60 days to submit a plan of compliance to the exchange, and because the deadline falls on a Sunday, the effective date for the submission is Monday.
If Super Micro’s plan is acceptable to Nasdaq staff, the company is eligible for an extension of up to 180 days to file its year-end report. The Nasdaq wants to see if Super Micro’s board of directors has investigated the company’s accounting problem, what the exact reason for the late filing was and a timeline of actions taken by the board.
The Nasdaq says it looks at several factors when evaluating a plan of compliance, including the reasons for the late filing, upcoming corporate events, the overall financial status of the company and the likelihood of a company filing an audited report within 180 days. The review can also look at information provided by outside auditors, the SEC or other regulators.
Last week, Super Micro said it was doing everything it could to remain listed on the Nasdaq, and said a special committee of its board had investigated and found no wrongdoing. Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the company would receive the board committee’s report as soon as last week. A company spokesperson didn’t respond when asked by CNBC if that report had been received.
If the Nasdaq rejects Super Micro’s compliance plan, the company can request a hearing from the exchange’s Hearings Panel to review the decision. Super Micro won’t be immediately kicked off the exchange – the hearing panel request starts a 15-day stay for delisting, and the panel can decide to extend the deadline for up to 180 days.
If the panel rejects that request or if Super Micro gets an extension and fails to file the updated financials, the company can still appeal the decision to another Nasdaq body called the Listing Council, which can grant an exception.
Ultimately, the Nasdaq says the extensions have a limit: 360 days from when the company’s first late filing was due.
A poor track record
There’s one factor at play that could hurt Super Micro’s chances of an extension. The exchange considers whether the company has any history of being out of compliance with SEC regulations.
Between 2015 and 2017, Super Micro misstated financials and published key filings late, according to the SEC. It was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2017 and was relisted two years later.
Super Micro “might have a more difficult time obtaining extensions as the Nasdaq’s literature indicates it will in part ‘consider the company’s specific circumstances, including the company’s past compliance history’ when determining whether an extension is warranted,” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note earlier this month. He has a neutral rating on the stock.
History also reveals just how long the delisting process can take.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., right, and Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro missed an annual report filing deadline in June 2017, got an extension to December and finally got a hearing in May 2018, which gave it another extension to August of that year. It was only when it missed that deadline that the stock was delisted.
In the short term, the bigger worry for Super Micro is whether customers and suppliers start to bail.
Aside from the compliance problems, Super Micro is a fast-growing company making one of the most in-demand products in the technology industry. Sales more than doubled last year to nearly $15 billion, according to unaudited financial reports, and the company has ample cash on its balance sheet, analysts say. Wall Street is expecting even more growth to about $25 billion in sales in its fiscal 2025, according to FactSet.
Super Micro said last week that the filing delay has “had a bit of an impact to orders.” In its unaudited September quarter results reported last week, the company showed growth that was slower than Wall Street expected. It also provided light guidance.
The company said one reason for its weak results was that it hadn’t yet obtained enough supply of Nvidia’s next-generation chip, called Blackwell, raising questions about Super Micro’s relationship with its most important supplier.
“We don’t believe that Super Micro’s issues are a big deal for Nvidia, although it could move some sales around in the near term from one quarter to the next as customers direct orders toward Dell and others,” wrote Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes in a note this week.
Super Micro’s head of corporate development, Michael Staiger, told investors on a call last week that “we’ve spoken to Nvidia and they’ve confirmed they’ve made no changes to allocations. We maintain a strong relationship with them.”