Israel’s response to Hamas’s brutal attacks last month was immediate.
However, it appears that Israel‘s military offensive was primarily motivated by anger and a political imperative to “do something, and get on with it”, rather than evolving clear military objectives, and how to enable post-conflict peace.
Historically, Israel’s response to Hamas aggression is tolerated by its international partners; indeed, it received strong messages of support from the US, UK and numerous Western allies for its robust military response after the 7 October attacks.
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5:20
IDF footage reviewed by analyst Sean Bell
However, on this occasion Israel knows that time is not on its side; as casualties mount international support and sympathy for Israel’s cause starts to ebb away, until eventually diplomatic pressure upon Israel will force its hand.
But, as casualties mount, what are Israel’s military objectives, are they achievable, and by when?
Israel’s stated aims were to seize Gaza City, destroy Hamas, and free the hostages. These goals are yet to be achieved.
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Earlier this week, Israeli forces took over the Gazaparliamentary building. Highly symbolic pictures served to demonstrate that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was “in control” – but of what?
Above ground the IDF might dominate, but it appears highly unlikely that they are in control of the “Gaza metro” – the labyrinth of tunnels under the city controlled by Hamas.
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Israel’s second phase of ground operation
Israel has now declared that the second phase of its ground offensive is about to start – and has warned residents to leave southern Gaza.
Relocating beleaguered Palestinians from southern to northern Gaza might isolate the Hamas fighters in the south to enable phase two of the battle to commence; however, is this remotely feasible?
And, such a strategy will inevitably compound – perhaps exponentially – the humanitarian crisis. Support for Israel is ebbing away.
Image: Palestinians in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, queue for bread as food shortages take hold
Image: Israel’s stated aims were to seize Gaza City, destroy Hamas, and free hostages
With the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Authority now reporting a death toll of more than 11,000 Palestinians, and the humanitarian situation in Gaza out of control, how much longer will the West tolerate Israel’s aggression?
Already, the international diplomatic language has become far more measured, qualified and reserved.
The clock is ticking and time is running out for Israel’s military offensive. But even when it ends, what will have been achieved?
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Hamas will not have been destroyed – indeed, many would argue that the IDF offensive has been a great recruiting tool for Hamas.
Tens of thousands of lives will have been lost and the full repercussions of the humanitarian disaster have yet to unfold.
And, to date, the IDF military strategy has not solved the hostage crisis.
Image: More than 11,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, says Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry
No military solution to unique situation
Israel might well have thought they had little choice but to mount an aggressive military response to the Hamas attack, but to what end?
All parties know there is no military solution to this unique situation, yet violence has become the default setting for each side’s political masters.
Growing international pressure will – inevitably – lead to a cessation of hostilities. However, for how long?
How will Gaza be rebuilt and a new model for co-existence be forged?
Will any lessons have been learned or is the vicious cycle of violence destined to be repeated at the hands of senior statesmen who, despite their age and experience, appear to ignore their moral obligation to work tirelessly to secure a long-term peaceful solution.
Surely the civilian population – on both sides – deserve better?
“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it” – Winston Churchill
Ukraine’s president is offering an olive branch to Donald Trump with a dramatic public message aimed at mending their relationship and ending Russia’s war.
He did not go so far as to apologise for a fiery bust-up with Mr Trump at the Oval Office last Friday – a move that some members of the US administration have called for, even though it was the American president and his deputy JD Vance who laid into Mr Zelenskyy.
Image: Ukrainian forces fire a missile towards Russian troops near Chasiv Yar. Pic: Reuters
Most significantly though was his spelling out of a vision for the first stage of how Russia’s war with Ukraine could end.
Pushing back on false claims by Trump allies such as Elon Musk that Mr Zelenskyy wants an endless war, he said that Ukraine is committed to peace and is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.
Crucially, he said: “We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky – ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure – and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same.”
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Appealing to the US president’s ego, he praised Mr Trump’s “strong leadership” and repeated his gratitude for past American support – again responding to criticism from the American commander in chief and his team that he is not showing enough gratitude.
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He also said Kyiv was ready to sign a key minerals deal with Washington – something else Mr Trump is seeking.
This message appears to be an attempt by Mr Zelenskyy to steer his relationship with Mr Trump back on track and to map out his idea for an end to the war – a conflict that Ukraine did not seek but which was brought to its land by Russia’s invading forces.
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, before their Oval Office bust-up. Pic: AP
Will Mr Zelenskyy’s expression of regret and clear wish to end the war provide enough of an off-ramp for Mr Trump to defuse the row and – for the sake of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself – switch back on the flow of military assistance to the country?
Another major factor, of course, is how Vladimir Putin reacts and whether he could countenance a limited ceasefire in a war that he started and – unlike Mr Zelenskyy – appears to have no genuine desire to halt.
Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada have come into effect, as has an additional 10% on Chinese products, bringing the total import tax to 20%.
The US president confirmed the tariffs in a speech at the White House – and his announcement sent US and European stocks down sharply.
The tariffs will be felt heavily by US companies which have factories in Canada and Mexico, such as carmakers.
Mr Trump said: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”
There’s “no room left” for a deal that would see the tariffs shelved if fentanyl flowing into the US is curbed by its neighbours, he added.
Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy, the Trump administration confirmed.
And tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled, raising them from 10% to 20%.
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Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn). It added the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country if the US did not lift its sanctions against Canada.
China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and “bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.
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What is America’s trade position?
Mr Trump’s speech stoked fears of a trade war in North America, prompting a financial market sell-off.
Stock market indexes the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.48% and 2.64% respectively on Monday.
The share prices for automobile companies including General Motors, which has significant truck production in Mexico, Automaker and Ford also fell.
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Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, an expert has said.
Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.
This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.
A truck has collided with a bus in southern Bolivia, killing at least 31 people, according to police – just two days after a deadly crash claimed at least 37 lives.
Officers said the bus rolled some 500m (1,640ft) down a ravine after the collision on Monday, which took place on the highway between Oruro, in the Bolivian Altiplano, and the highland mining city of Potosi.
The driver of the truck has been arrested, while the cause of the accident is under investigation.
Police spokesperson Limbert Choque said men and women were among the dead, and 22 people suffered injuries.
Image: Rescue teams operating at the site of the crash. Pic: Bolivia’s attorney general/Reuters
Bolivia’s President, Luis Arce, expressed condolences for the victims on social media: “This unfortunate event must be investigated to establish responsibilities,” he said in a post on Facebook.
“We send our most sincere condolences to the bereaved families, wishing them the necessary strength to face these difficult times.”
Image: The crash happened between Oruro and Potosi
On Saturday morning, a crash between two buses killed more than three dozen people in the same region.
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It happened between Colchani and the city of Uyuni, a major tourist attraction and the world’s largest salt flat.
Image: People stand near the wreckage of one of the two buses involved in a crash on Saturday. Pic: Reuters/Potosi Departmental Command
Coincidentally, one of the buses was heading to Oruro, where one of the most important carnival celebrations in Latin America is currently taking place.
More than 30 people were also killed after a bus crash on 17 February.
In that crash, police said the driver appeared to have lost control of the vehicle, causing it to drop more than 800m (2,600ft) off a precipice in the southwestern area of Yocalla.
Bolivia’s mountainous, undermaintained and poorly supervised roads are some of the deadliest in the world, claiming an average 1,400 fatalities every year.