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Israel’s response to Hamas’s brutal attacks last month was immediate.

However, it appears that Israel‘s military offensive was primarily motivated by anger and a political imperative to “do something, and get on with it”, rather than evolving clear military objectives, and how to enable post-conflict peace.

Historically, Israel’s response to Hamas aggression is tolerated by its international partners; indeed, it received strong messages of support from the US, UK and numerous Western allies for its robust military response after the 7 October attacks.

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IDF footage reviewed by analyst Sean Bell

However, on this occasion Israel knows that time is not on its side; as casualties mount international support and sympathy for Israel’s cause starts to ebb away, until eventually diplomatic pressure upon Israel will force its hand.

But, as casualties mount, what are Israel’s military objectives, are they achievable, and by when?

Israel’s stated aims were to seize Gaza City, destroy Hamas, and free the hostages. These goals are yet to be achieved.

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Earlier this week, Israeli forces took over the Gaza parliamentary building. Highly symbolic pictures served to demonstrate that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was “in control” – but of what?

Above ground the IDF might dominate, but it appears highly unlikely that they are in control of the “Gaza metro” – the labyrinth of tunnels under the city controlled by Hamas.

Israel’s second phase of ground operation

Israel has now declared that the second phase of its ground offensive is about to start – and has warned residents to leave southern Gaza.

Relocating beleaguered Palestinians from southern to northern Gaza might isolate the Hamas fighters in the south to enable phase two of the battle to commence; however, is this remotely feasible?

And, such a strategy will inevitably compound – perhaps exponentially – the humanitarian crisis. Support for Israel is ebbing away.

Read more:
IDF warns Palestinians to flee parts of southern Gaza
Netanyahu: Israel ‘not successful’ in minimising civilian casualties

Palestinians queue as they wait to buy bread from a bakery, amid shortages of food supplies and fuel  in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip
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Palestinians in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, queue for bread as food shortages take hold

Soldiers of Israel's Paratroopers Brigade take part in an operation at a location given as Gaza, in this screen grab obtained from a handout video released on November 16, 2023. Israel Defense Forces/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY
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Israel’s stated aims were to seize Gaza City, destroy Hamas, and free hostages

With the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Authority now reporting a death toll of more than 11,000 Palestinians, and the humanitarian situation in Gaza out of control, how much longer will the West tolerate Israel’s aggression?

Already, the international diplomatic language has become far more measured, qualified and reserved.

The clock is ticking and time is running out for Israel’s military offensive. But even when it ends, what will have been achieved?

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Hamas will not have been destroyed – indeed, many would argue that the IDF offensive has been a great recruiting tool for Hamas.

Tens of thousands of lives will have been lost and the full repercussions of the humanitarian disaster have yet to unfold.

And, to date, the IDF military strategy has not solved the hostage crisis.

An Israeli flag stands on the top of a destroyed building in northern Gaza
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More than 11,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, says Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry

No military solution to unique situation

Israel might well have thought they had little choice but to mount an aggressive military response to the Hamas attack, but to what end?

All parties know there is no military solution to this unique situation, yet violence has become the default setting for each side’s political masters.

Growing international pressure will – inevitably – lead to a cessation of hostilities. However, for how long?

How will Gaza be rebuilt and a new model for co-existence be forged?

Will any lessons have been learned or is the vicious cycle of violence destined to be repeated at the hands of senior statesmen who, despite their age and experience, appear to ignore their moral obligation to work tirelessly to secure a long-term peaceful solution.

Surely the civilian population – on both sides – deserve better?

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it” – Winston Churchill

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North Korea’s opened its doors to Russian tourists. So… how was their holiday?

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North Korea's opened its doors to Russian tourists. So... how was their holiday?

The world’s most secretive state is a mystery for billions of people – but not Anastasiya Samsonova.

She has returned from a week’s holiday in North Korea.

“We saw nothing terrible there, there is no danger there,” the 33-year-old HR manager tells me.

“Frankly speaking, we really liked it.”

She was part of a group of 15 Russian tourists who were the first foreign visitors to a new seaside resort, which was opened to great fanfare by North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in June.

Her holiday snaps show a white sand beach, shimmering seas and high-rise hotels. But something’s missing – people.

Russian tourist Anastasiya Samsonova at the Wonsan-Kalma beach resort in North Korea. Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova
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Anastasiya Samsonova at the Wonsan-Kalma beach resort in North Korea. Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova

There are rows of sun loungers, but not a soul sitting on them. A glittering banquet hall that’s devoid of diners.

That’s because, when it comes to international tourists, the Wonsan-Kalma resort is currently only open to Russians.

“The hotel was absolutely new,” Anastasiya enthuses, unfussed by the absence of others.

“Everything was done very beautifully, a good interior … very developed infrastructure.”

Russian tourist Anastasiya Samsonova enjoying a meal on a train in North Korea. Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova
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Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova

But why not Turkey? Or Thailand?

I gently suggest that people in Britain might be shocked at the idea of a summer break in a country better known for famines and forced labour than parasols and pina coladas.

“We were interested in seeing how people live there,” Anastasiya explains.

“There were a lot of prejudices about what you can and can’t do in North Korea, how you can behave. But actually, we felt absolutely free.”

Russian tourist Anastasiya Samsonova reading a North Korean newspaper. Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova
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Pic: Anastasiya Samsonova

Anastasiya is one of a growing number of Russians who are choosing to visit their reclusive neighbour as the two allies continue to forge closer ties following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, North Korean troops supplied military support in Russia’s Kursk region, and now there is economic cooperation too.

North Korean produce, including apples and beer, has started appearing on supermarket shelves in Russia’s far east.

And last month, Moscow launched direct passenger flights to Pyongyang for the first time in decades.

North Korean apples on sale in Russia. Pic: Danil Biryukov / DVHAB.RU
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Pic: Danil Biryukov / DVHAB.RU

But can this hermit nation really become a holiday hotspot?

The Moscow office of the Vostok Intur travel agency believes so. The company runs twice-weekly tours there, and I’m being given the hard sell.

“North Korea is an amazing country, unlike any other in the world,” director Irina Kobeleva gushes, before listing some unusual highlights.

“It is a country where you will not see any advertising on the streets. And it is very clean – even the asphalt is washed.”

She shows me the brochures, which present a glossy paradise. There are images of towering monuments, pristine golf greens and immaculate ski slopes. But again, no people.

Irina Kobeleva, director of Vostok Intur travel's Moscow office
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‘There is a huge growing demand among young people,’ Irina Kobeleva says

Ms Kobeleva insists the company’s tours are increasingly popular, with 400 bookings a month.

“Our tourists are mostly older people who want to return to the USSR,” she says, “because there is a feeling that the real North Korea is very similar to what was once in the Soviet Union.

“But at the same time, there is a huge growing demand among young people.”

Sure enough, while we’re chatting, two customers walk in to book trips. The first is Pavel, a young blogger who likes to “collect” countries. North Korea will be number 89.

“The country has opened its doors to us, so I’m taking this chance,” he tells me when I ask why he wants to go.

Read more from Sky News:
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Coca-Cola and Brewdog beer on Russian shelves despite sanctions

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For pensioner Tatiana, the reason is sentimental.

“My husband wanted to go there, but now he’s gone. So I want his wish to come true,” she says.

It’ll certainly cost them. One week’s trip that takes in Pyongyang, a circus and the new beach resort, costs roughly £1,500 without flights.

At that price, I suspect most tourists will be content for this secretive state to remain hidden.

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US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays

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US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs - but there are more delays

Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

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Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.

Read more:
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The big risk ahead?

It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

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Trump orders two nuclear submarines to be moved after ‘highly provocative’ comments from ex-Russian president

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Trump orders two nuclear submarines to be moved after 'highly provocative' comments from ex-Russian president

Donald Trump says he has ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the “appropriate regions” in a row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

It comes after Mr Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia‘s Security Council, told the US president on Thursday to remember Moscow had Soviet-era nuclear strike capabilities of last resort.

On Friday, Mr Trump wrote on social media: “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.

“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters
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Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters

The spat between Mr Trump and Mr Medvedev came after the US president warned Russia on Tuesday it had “10 days from today” to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face tariffs, along with its oil buyers.

Moscow has shown no sign it will agree to Mr Trump’s demands.

Read more:
Who are the winners (if any) and losers of Trump’s tariffs?

Mr Medvedev accused Mr Trump of engaging in a “game of ultimatums” and reminded him Russia possessed a Soviet-era automated nuclear retaliatory system – or “dead hand” – after Mr Trump told him to “watch his words” and said he’s “entering very dangerous territory!”

Mr Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was referring to a secretive semi-automated Soviet command system designed to launch Russia’s missiles if its leadership was taken out in a decapitating strike.

He added: “If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path.”

He also said “each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war” between Russia and the US.

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