Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says “everything is on the table” when it comes to tax cuts in this week’s autumn statement.
Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Hunt said his speech on Wednesday would focus on growth, and pledged to “remove the barriers that stop businesses growing”.
But he did not rule out other rumours that have been swirling around Westminster this weekend, including a reduction in inheritance tax and changes to personal taxation.
“I am not going to talk about any individual taxes as that will lead to even more feverish speculation,” he said.
But the chancellor admitted the tax burden is “too high” and the government “wants to bring it down”, with lower tax “essential to growth”.
“I think it is important for a productive, dynamic, fizzing economy that you motivate people to do the work [and] take the risks that we need,” he added.
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Labour: Tax cuts must be ‘affordable’
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves told Trevor Phillips she would welcome tax cuts for working people, but called on the government to “explain where the money is going to come from”.
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She added: “Last year when the Conservatives had a load of unfunded tax cuts, it crashed the economy [and] sent mortgage rates soaring.
“So I want taxes on working people lower, but it has to be affordable.”
But the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Paul Johnson, warned there was “no headroom there at all” for major tax cuts due to the poor state of public finances.
Can the chancellor lift the gloom? Watch live coverage on Sky News of the autumn statement from 11am on Wednesday.
Image: Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said any plan for tax cuts ‘has to be affordable’
Under the Tories, tax levels are at their highest since records began – with Ms Reeves pointing to 25 hikes since 2019 – and backbench MPs have been demanding cuts from the government ahead of the next election.
But Mr Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have been resisting the calls for the past 12 months, saying their priority was to lower inflation – which also stood at a record high of 11% last autumn.
Earlier this week, the Office for National Statistics confirmed that figure had now dropped to 4.6%, seeing the Conservative pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year met.
But it still sits at more than double the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
The chancellor reiterated his pledge to not introduce any tax cuts that “fuel inflation”, saying: “We have done all this hard work we are not going to throw that away.”
But he did not write off the prospect of lowering taxes in the autumn statement, saying the Conservatives “need to show there is a path to a lower tax economy”.
“We believe lower taxes are essential for a high growth economy, so we do want to bring down the tax burden, but we will only do so responsibly,” he added.
Image: Sky News understands Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are holding multiple meetings over the weekend ahead of Wednesday’s autumn statement
Mr Hunt indicated the focus during Wednesday’s speech would be on business, calling it “an autumn statement for growth… to turn a corner” on the economy.
“If we are going to embrace those opportunities we need to remove the barriers that stop businesses growing and that’s why this autumn statement will be focused on growth,” he said.
But pushed on whether there would be changes to either National Insurance or income tax, he hinted at a longer wait, saying: “If you want to bring down personal taxes the only way to do that sustainably is to spend public money more efficiently… Rome wasn’t built in a day, these things take time.”
Speaking about the current economic situation to Trevor Phillips, the IFS’ Mr Johnson said there had been “some good news” for the Treasury this year as tax revenues were “coming in more strongly” – meaning the government would have to borrow less to fund public services.
And that in turn would help the chancellor meet his target to have the country’s debt falling in the next five years.
But, the economic expert added: “At the budget back in March [debt was forecast to be] falling by £6bn in five years.
“Now, £6bn in five years out of a £1tn budget is nil. I mean, there is no headroom there at all… and that’s probably roughly where he’s going to be still [on Wednesday].”
The IFS chief said “chancellors can always find a few billion in a budget or an autumn statement if they want to”, but the public finances are “in such a mess” due to the amount being spent on debt interest.
“But there’s always choices,” he added.
Mr Johnson urged that choice not to be cutting inheritance tax, however, adding: “I think it would be a very odd statement of priorities that you’re going to hit hard if they earn the money but help them out if they inherited it.”
Sky News understands multiple meetings are taking place this weekend between Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak to finalise the details ahead of Wednesday’s announcements.
Britain’s biggest high street bank is in talks to buy Curve, the digital wallet provider, amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.
Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group is in advanced discussions to acquire Curve for a price believed to be up to £120m.
City sources said this weekend that if the negotiations were successfully concluded, a deal could be announced by the end of September.
Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016.
Three years later, he told an interviewer: “In 10 years time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”
One insider said this weekend that Curve was being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.
If a mooted price range of £100m-£120m turns out to be accurate, that would represent a lower valuation than the £133m Curve raised in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.
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That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.
It was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.
In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.
Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.
One source close to the prospective deal said that Lloyds had identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.
Lloyds is also said to believe that Curve would be a financially rational asset to own because of the fees Apple charges consumers to use its Apple Pay service.
In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.
Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform ThoughtMachine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.
The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 750 branches across Britain.
Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.
When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.
“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.
“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”
IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology…they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.
“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”
News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.
Lord Fink declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Saturday morning, while Curve did not respond to an enquiry sent by email.
Lloyds also declined to comment, while Stifel KBW could not be reached for comment.
The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.
A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.
It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.
A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.
This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.
Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.
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Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.
A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture
It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.
“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.
But the picture was not all bad.
Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.
It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.
The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.
While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.
Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.
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Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.
“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.
Why did the economy shrink?
The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.
The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.
It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.
Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.
However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.
This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.
Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.
However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.
In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.
Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.
Signs of recovery
Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.
“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.
A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.
Struggles ahead
It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.
The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.
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Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.
Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.