The chancellor, the autumn statement… and the fantasy of tax cuts

Published

1 year ago

November 19, 2023

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There will be a lot of positive talk from the chancellor when he delivers his autumn statement on Wednesday, but this will be a fiscal event full of illusory gains.

The government is on track to borrow less than previously forecast, which will give rise to a fantasy that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has more space to slash taxes than he actually has.

It’s a fantasy because these gains on borrowing are largely the product of high inflation, which has bolstered tax receipts. The government hasn’t admitted it yet, but inflation will inevitably drive up spending too.

It means Hunt’s room for manoeuvre is actually limited if he wants to meet his target of getting debt falling as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP).

Although interest rates, which have been higher than expected, will weigh on the public finances, the windfall from higher taxes bolstered by inflation and wage growth will more than offset this. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will likely show that the government’s headroom against that target has grown from £6.5bn to around £13bn.

Jeremy Hunt will want to claim this as a victory, while also tempering expectations for tax cuts. His message will be that the public finances are improving under this government but they are in too poor a shape to allow for any tax cuts.

This is where the political infighting begins. Many MPs within his own party want him to use that headroom to cut taxes. They are perturbed by the fact that a Conservative government has overseen growth in the tax burden to its largest in the post-war era.

Among the most egregious of these tax rises is the freezing of thresholds, a stealth tax which will see taxpayers pay £40bn a year more by 2028. It has dragged millions of public sector workers, including teachers and nurses, into the higher band of tax.

Tensions over taxation have been simmering in the party and will likely flare up again because Hunt is unlikely to make any big giveaways. The government is insistent that the priority must be to bring inflation down because any tax rises could drive inflation higher. However, with the target to halve inflation now met, MPs will be asking when the tax cuts can begin.

Both Hunt and Rishi Sunak are sensitive to this and will probably throw a bone or two. Downing Street has been looking for options that are relatively inexpensive and less likely to increase inflation.

There are a number of policies under consideration, including the scrapping of inheritance tax, or a reduction in the rate from 40% to 20% on estates above £325,000. The government could also cancel a planned increase on stamp duty. Together, these policies would cost about £5.2bn. The chancellor is also expected to cancel the planned 5p increase in fuel duty from April next year, which will cost £6bn.

So, any giveaways would quickly swallow up the headroom, at a time when government spending will inevitably have to rise. Departmental budgets are set in cash terms and high inflation means that the cost of paying prison guards and running courts has gone up. Without substantial increases, public services face real-terms pay cuts.

On current plans, unprotected departments would see their spending power cut by 16% between 2022-23 and 2027-28, which would be a similar pace of cuts to those implemented by George Osborne in the early 2010s. The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, described this scale of the cuts as a “fiscal fiction” that is “undeliverable”.

The opposition will be keeping a hawk eye on this and will be quick to decry any signs that the country is returning to a period of austerity. It will also be quick to attack any of the government’s tax-raising plans – and there will be a number of them.

Tax thresholds will probably remain frozen into 2029, a policy that could raise another £6bn. The Treasury will also be cracking down on benefits, uprating them in line with October’s inflation rate of 4.6% instead of September’s figure of 6.7%. That could save £2bn. A tweak to the triple lock calculation for pensions could net £600m.

So, for all the large upward revisions to the numbers coming out of the OBR, it’s a fiscal event that is unlikely to inspire. There will be some tweaks around the edges and some big talk on plans to boost economic growth.

However, the government will probably want to keep its powder dry for the budget in March. Unfortunately, that may not be enough to satisfy Tory MPs, who are hungry for tax giveaways now.

Politics

Russia arrests Blum co-founder Vladimir Smerkis on fraud charges

Published

3 hours ago

May 19, 2025

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Russia arrests Blum co-founder Vladimir Smerkis on fraud charges

Vladimir Smerkis, a co-founder of the Telegram-based crypto project Blum, has reportedly been arrested in Moscow, Russia, on fraud allegations, amid Blum confirming he is no longer affiliated with the project.

The Zamoskvoretsky District Court of Moscow approved a request from investigators to keep Smerkis in custody while he is being investigated, Russian state-owned news outlet TASS reported on May 18.

Smerkis — who previously ran operations for Binance in Russia — is suspected of committing fraud on a “large scale,” pursuant to Article 159 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, violations of which can result in imprisonment ranging from two to 12 years.

It isn’t clear if charges have been filed against Smerkis.

Russian news outlet Mash tied the fraud allegations against Smerkis to his involvement in The Token Fund and Tokenbox crypto ventures that he co-founded in 2017, where investors reportedly suffered combined losses of around $15 million.

Blum, which is not involved in The Token Fund and Tokenbox ventures, wrote to X on May 18 that Smerkis resigned from his role as the firm’s chief marketing officer and would no longer be involved in the project in any capacity.

Blum said its team remains fully committed and focused on its goals and that its day-to-day operations would continue as usual.

Blum is a crypto project that integrates a decentralized exchange into Telegram Mini Apps, enabling users to trade crypto, earn rewards and participate in token airdrops.

No Smerkis, no BLUM token?

The incident sparked concerns that Blum’s token airdrop won’t follow through as planned.

In an April 3 X post, Blum hinted at a potential BLUM token listing in the third quarter of this year.

Blum users could receive BLUM tokens by earning Blum points in its newly launched Drop Game, where users tap on snowflakes falling from their mobile phone screen, and convert those points into tokens during the project’s slated token generation event.

However, the news of Smerkis’ arrest appears to have shaken community confidence that the BLUM token airdrop will happen.

“Blum owes its users a clarification on the planned airdrop,” one X user and Blum community member said, while crypto influencer RK Gupta added:

“No airdrop. No updates. Just silence. Was it all for nothing?”

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Politics

Pavel Durov rejects EU pressure to censor Romanian election content

Published

8 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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Pavel Durov rejects EU pressure to censor Romanian election content

Telegram founder Pavel Durov said he rejected pressure from a European Union (EU) country to censor political content on the social media platform ahead of the May 18 presidential elections in Romania.

According to Durov, a Western European government, which he hinted at with a baguette emoji, approached the platform and requested it censor conservative voices, which he flatly denied. Durov wrote in a May 18 Telegram post:

“You can’t ‘defend democracy’ by destroying democracy. You can’t ‘fight election interference’ by interfering with elections. You either have freedom of speech and fair elections — or you don’t. And the Romanian people deserve both.”

The Telegram founder is an ardent defender of free speech, who is highly regarded in the crypto community for his stances on freedom of expression, autonomy, privacy, and individual liberty.

Durov thrust into the spotlight following arrest in France

Pavel Durov was arrested in France in August 2024, sparking widespread condemnation from the crypto community and free speech advocates worldwide, who accused the French government of orchestrating a politically-motivated arrest.

French President Emmanuel Macron denied the arrest was political while claiming the French government was “committed to freedom of expression and communication” in an August 26 X post.

“You can’t keep founders personally liable, and charge them up to 20 years, for not moderating speech, and at the same time claim you are deeply committed to freedom of expression,” Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz wrote in response to Macron.

Shortly after Durov’s arrest, Chris Pavlovski, the CEO of Rumble — a free speech online video platform — announced that he safely departed the European Union after France threatened Rumble.

The CEO also criticized the French government for the arrest of the Telegram co-founder, characterizing it as an attempt to pressure him into censoring speech on the platform.

Durov maintains that Telegram complies with lawful information requests made by law enforcement officials and said that the company has a legal representative in France who handles such requests.

The Telegram co-founder also criticized the French government for bypassing the legal representative and choosing to issue an arrest warrant instead.

Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in

Politics

Post-Brexit EU reset negotiations ‘going to the wire’, says minister

Published

16 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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Post-Brexit EU reset negotiations 'going to the wire', says minister

Negotiations to reset the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU are going “to the wire”, a Cabinet Office minister has said.

“There is no final deal as yet. We are in the very final hours,” the UK’s lead negotiator Nick Thomas-Symonds told Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

On the possibility of a youth mobility scheme with the EU, he insisted “nothing is agreed until everything is”.

“We would be open to a smart, controlled youth mobility scheme,” he said. “But I should set out, we will not return to freedom of movement.”

Politics latest: PM outlines ‘benefits’ for UK from closer EU ties

The government is set to host EU leaders in London on Monday.

Put to the minister that the government could not guarantee there will be a deal by tomorrow afternoon, Mr Thomas-Symonds said: “Nobody can guarantee anything when you have two parties in a negotiation.”

But the minister said he remained “confident” a deal could be reached “that makes our borders more secure, is good for jobs and growth, and brings people’s household bills down”.

“That is what is in our national interest and that’s what we will continue to do over these final hours,” he said.

“We have certainly been taking what I have called a ruthlessly pragmatic approach.”

On agricultural products, food and drink, Mr Thomas-Symonds said supermarkets were crying out for a deal because the status quo “isn’t working”, with “lorries stuck for 16 hours and food rotting” and producers and farmers unable to export goods because of the amount of “red tape”.

Asked how much people could expect to save on shopping as a result of the deal the government was hoping to negotiate, the minister was unable to give a figure.

On the issue of fishing, asked if a deal would mean allowing French boats into British waters, the minister said the Brexit deal which reduced EU fishing in UK waters by a quarter over five years comes to an end next year.

He said the objectives now included “an overall deal in the interest of our fishers, easier access to markets to sell our fish and looking after our oceans”.

Turning to borders, the minister was asked if people would be able to move through queues at airports faster.

Again, he could not give a definitive answer, but said it was “certainly something we have been pushing with the EU… we want British people who are going on holiday to be able to go and enjoy their holiday, and not be stuck in queues”.

PM opens door to EU youth mobility scheme

A deal granting the UK access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, according to reports – and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has appeared to signal a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement is a “red line”, youth mobility does not come under this.

The European Commission has proposed opening negotiations with the UK on an agreement to facilitate youth mobility between the EU and the UK. The scheme would allow both UK and EU citizens aged between 18 and 30 years old to stay for up to four years in a country of their choosing.

Earlier this month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told Phillips a youth mobility scheme was not the approach the government wanted to take to bring net migration down.

When this was put to him, Mr Thomas-Symonds insisted any deal on a youth mobility scheme with Europe will have to be “smart” and “controlled” and will be “consistent” with the government’s immigration policy.

Asked what the government had got in return for a youth mobility scheme – now there had been a change in approach – the minister said: “It is about an overall balanced package that works for Britain. The government is 100% behind the objective of getting net migration down.”

Phillips said more than a million young people came to the country between 2004 and 2015. “If there isn’t a cap – that’s what we are talking about,” he said.

The minister insisted such a scheme would be “controlled” – but refused to say whether there would be a cap.

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‘It’s going to be a bad deal’

Shadow cabinet office minister Alex Burghart told Phillips an uncapped youth mobility scheme with the EU would lead to “much higher immigration”, adding: “It sounds very much as though it’s going to be a bad deal.”

Asked if the Conservatives would scrap any EU deal, he said: “It depends what the deal is, Trevor. And we still, even at this late stage, we don’t know.

“The government can’t tell us whether everyone will be able to come. They can’t tell us how old the young person is. They can’t tell us what benefits they would get.

“So I think when people hear about a youth mobility scheme, they think about an 18-year-old coming over working at a bar. But actually we may well be looking at a scheme which allows 30-year-olds to come over and have access to the NHS on day one, to claim benefits on day one, to bring their extended families.”

He added: “So there are obviously very considerable disadvantages to the UK if this deal is done in the wrong way.”

Jose Manuel Barroso, former EU Commission president, told Phillips it “makes sense” for a stronger relationship to exist between the European Union and the UK, adding: “We are stronger together.”

He said he understood fishing and youth mobility are the key sticking points for a UK-EU deal.

“Frankly, what is at stake… is much more important than those specific issues,” he said.