There will be a lot of positive talk from the chancellor when he delivers his autumn statement on Wednesday, but this will be a fiscal event full of illusory gains.
It’s a fantasy because these gains on borrowing are largely the product of high inflation, which has bolstered tax receipts. The government hasn’t admitted it yet, but inflation will inevitably drive up spending too.
It means Hunt’s room for manoeuvre is actually limited if he wants to meet his target of getting debt falling as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP).
Although interest rates, which have been higher than expected, will weigh on the public finances, the windfall from higher taxes bolstered by inflation and wage growth will more than offset this. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will likely show that the government’s headroom against that target has grown from £6.5bn to around £13bn.
Jeremy Hunt will want to claim this as a victory, while also tempering expectations for tax cuts. His message will be that the public finances are improving under this government but they are in too poor a shape to allow for any tax cuts.
This is where the political infighting begins. Many MPs within his own party want him to use that headroom to cut taxes. They are perturbed by the fact that a Conservative government has overseen growth in the tax burden to its largest in the post-war era.
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Among the most egregious of these tax rises is the freezing of thresholds, a stealth tax which will see taxpayers pay £40bn a year more by 2028. It has dragged millions of public sector workers, including teachers and nurses, into the higher band of tax.
Tensions over taxation have been simmering in the party and will likely flare up again because Hunt is unlikely to make any big giveaways. The government is insistent that the priority must be to bring inflation down because any tax rises could drive inflation higher. However, with the target to halve inflation now met, MPs will be asking when the tax cuts can begin.
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Image: Jeremy Hunt will deliver his autumn statement on Wednesday
Both Hunt and Rishi Sunak are sensitive to this and will probably throw a bone or two. Downing Street has been looking for options that are relatively inexpensive and less likely to increase inflation.
There are a number of policies under consideration, including the scrapping of inheritance tax, or a reduction in the rate from 40% to 20% on estates above £325,000. The government could also cancel a planned increase on stamp duty. Together, these policies would cost about £5.2bn. The chancellor is also expected to cancel the planned 5p increase in fuel duty from April next year, which will cost £6bn.
So, any giveaways would quickly swallow up the headroom, at a time when government spending will inevitably have to rise. Departmental budgets are set in cash terms and high inflation means that the cost of paying prison guards and running courts has gone up. Without substantial increases, public services face real-terms pay cuts.
On current plans, unprotected departments would see their spending power cut by 16% between 2022-23 and 2027-28, which would be a similar pace of cuts to those implemented by George Osborne in the early 2010s. The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, described this scale of the cuts as a “fiscal fiction” that is “undeliverable”.
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1:10
Chancellor on ‘next part of economic plan’
The opposition will be keeping a hawk eye on this and will be quick to decry any signs that the country is returning to a period of austerity. It will also be quick to attack any of the government’s tax-raising plans – and there will be a number of them.
Tax thresholds will probably remain frozen into 2029, a policy that could raise another £6bn. The Treasury will also be cracking down on benefits, uprating them in line with October’s inflation rate of 4.6% instead of September’s figure of 6.7%. That could save £2bn. A tweak to the triple lock calculation for pensions could net £600m.
So, for all the large upward revisions to the numbers coming out of the OBR, it’s a fiscal event that is unlikely to inspire. There will be some tweaks around the edges and some big talk on plans to boost economic growth.
However, the government will probably want to keep its powder dry for the budget in March. Unfortunately, that may not be enough to satisfy Tory MPs, who are hungry for tax giveaways now.
The Chinese owner of British Steel has held fresh talks with government officials in a bid to break the impasse over ministers’ determination not to compensate it for seizing control of the company.
Sky News has learnt that executives from Jingye Group met senior civil servants from the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) late last week to discuss ways to resolve the standoff.
Whitehall sources said the talks had been cordial, but that no meaningful progress had been made towards a resolution.
Jingye wants the government to agree to pay it hundreds of millions of pounds for taking control of British Steel in April – a move triggered by the Chinese group’s preparations for the permanent closure of its blast furnaces in Scunthorpe.
Such a move would have cost thousands of jobs and ended Britain’s centuries-old ability to produce virgin steel.
Jingye had been in talks for months to seek £1bn in state aid to facilitate the Scunthorpe plant’s transition to greener steelmaking, but was offered just half that sum by ministers.
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British Steel has not yet been formally nationalised, although that remains a probable outcome.
Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, has previously dismissed the idea of compensating Jingye, saying British Steel’s equity was essentially worthless.
Last month, he met his Chinese counterpart, where the issue of British Steel was discussed between the two governments in person for the first time.
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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
Jingye has hired the leading City law firm Linklaters to explore the recovery of hundreds of millions of pounds it invested in the Scunthorpe-based company before the government seized control of it.
News of last week’s meeting comes as British steelmakers face an anxious wait to learn whether their exports to the US face swingeing tariffs as part of US President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Sky News’s economics and data editor, Ed Conway, revealed this week that the UK would miss a White House-imposed deadline to agree a trade deal on steel and aluminium this week.
Jingye declined to comment, while a spokesman for the Department for Business and Trade said: “We acted quickly to ensure the continued operations of the blast furnaces but recognise that securing British Steel’s long-term future requires private sector investment.
“We have not nationalised British Steel and are working closely with Jingye on options for the future, and we will continue work on determining the best long-term sustainable future for the site.”