Boris Johnson was left “bamboozled” by the science around COVID, according to the government’s then chief scientific adviser.
Extracts from Sir Patrick Vallance’s diaries were shown to the official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic on Monday, with several references to the prime minister’s difficulty in getting to grips with the data he was being shown.
One entry described a late afternoon meeting between the pair in May 2020 to discuss plans for schools, where the adviser wrote: “My god this is complicated and models will not provide the answer. PM is clearly bamboozled.”
Ten days later, Sir Patrick wrote that Mr Johnson “sways between optimism and pessimism” and he was “still confused on different types of tests (he holds it in his head for a session and then it goes).”
Another extract from June 2020 said: “Watching [the] PM get his head around stats is awful. He finds relative and absolute risk almost impossible to understand.”
And a further entry from same month said it was “a real struggle to get [Mr Johnson] to understand” graphs.
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Sir Patrick stood by his words when questioned by the inquiry’s legal team, pointing to how Mr Johnson dropped science as a subject aged 15.
“He did struggle with some of the concepts and we did need to repeat them often,” he added.
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But while the senior scientist said it was “hard work sometimes to try and make sure that he had understood what a particular graph or piece of data was saying”, Mr Johnson did not have a “unique inability to grasp some of these concepts”, adding that it was “not unusual amongst leaders in Western democracies”.
‘Risk’ of Eat Out To Help Out
Sir Patrick also revealed that the government’s scientific and medical advisers were not told about Rishi Sunak’s “Eat Out To Help Out” scheme until it was announced by the then chancellor, saying their advice about the increased risk of transmission would have been “very clear”.
Written evidence from Mr Sunak to the inquiry said: “I don’t recall any concerns about [the scheme] being expressed during ministerial discussions, including those attended by [Sir Patrick].”
But asked about the inconsistency with his own statement, Sir Patrick said: “Around that time lots of measures were being released and you will see repeated references in various minutes and notes and emails and indeed, I am sure, in my private notes, to our concern that people were piling on more and more things and this would come to drive R above one and I think that was discussed at cabinet as well.
“So I think it would have been very obvious to anyone that this was likely to cause, well, inevitably would cause an increase in transmission risk and I think that would have been known by ministers.”
He added: “I would be very surprised if any minister didn’t understand that these openings carried risk.”
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Rishi Sunak unveiled Eat Out To Help Out in July 2020 – but Sir Patrick Vallance says scientific and medical advisers weren’t told about it beforehand
The division did not appear to be limited to that one scheme, however, with Sir Patrick’s diaries showing how he thought scientific advisers were kept out of strategy meetings by both Number 10 and the Cabinet Office.
The adviser told the inquiry there were “periods when it was clear that the unwelcome advice we were giving was, as expected, not loved and that meant we had to work doubly hard that the science evidence and advice was being properly heard”.
He added: “There were times, because we were giving unpalatable evidence and advice, people would prefer not to hear it.”
Sir Patrick also said “pressure” was sometimes put on advisers to change advice, pointing to a WhatsApp exchange with the then health secretary Matt Hancock.
“[Mr Hancock] asked me to change something and I said no, we are not going to change our advice, because that is where the evidence bit comes in,” said the adviser. “You have got to at least see that even if you disagree with it and don’t want to do it.”
Image: Matt Hancock was health secretary during the pandemic
He added: “I am absolutely sure, because politicians are politicians, that there were attempts to manage us and make sure we were not always given the access we might need
“But I think overall we managed to get through all that… and make sure the advice and evidence was heard.”
Asked about the WhatsApp exchange, a spokesman for Mr Hancock said: “Mr Hancock has supported the inquiry throughout and will respond to all questions when he gives his evidence.”
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Sir Keir Starmer continues to face the threat of a major rebellion during a key vote on welfare reforms later – despite making last-minute concessions to disgruntled Labour MPs.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has confirmed that all existing claimants of the personal independence payment (PIP), the main disability benefit, will be protected from changes to eligibility.
The combined value of the standard Universal Credit allowance and the health top-up will rise “at least in line with inflation” every year of this parliament.
And an additional £300m for employment support for sick and disabled people in 2026 has been announced, which will rise every year after.
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Welfare cuts ‘needed to be made’
Ms Kendall has also promised that a consultation into PIP – “co-produced” with disabled people – will be published next autumn.
She said the U-turn on welfare cuts will cost taxpayers about £2.5bn by 2030 – less than half the £4.8bn the government had expected to save with its initial proposals.
But after announcing the U-turns, Labour MPs were still publicly saying they could not back the plans as they do not go far enough to allay their concerns.
Disabilities minister Stephen Timms would not say he was “confident” the proposals would pass the Commons when asked on Sky News’ Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge.
“We’ve got a very strong package, I certainly hope it passes,” he replied.
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‘Disabled people thrown under the bus’
A total of 86 charities united yesterday to call on MPs to reject the reforms, saying they will harm disabled people and calling it “a political choice”.
The likes of Oxfam, Child Action Poverty Group, Mind and Shelter said the bill has been brought to a vote without consulting disabled people and without any assessment “of its impact on health and employment outcomes”.
When asked to name “a single” disability organisation in favour of the reforms, Ms Kendall declined to do so.
Several Labour MPs indicated they would still vote against the changes, leaving the government in the dark over how big a rebellion it still may face.
Ms Kendall tried to allay their fears, telling MPs: “I believe we have a fair package, a package that protects existing claimants because they’ve come to rely on that support.”
Richard Burgon presented a petition to parliament yesterday evening against the cuts, signed by more than 77,000 people.
Several Labour MPs questioned why the vote was going ahead before the review into PIP is published – including Rachael Maskell, who said she could not “countenance sick and disabled people being denied support” and added: “It is a matter of conscience.”
Connor Naismith said the concessions “undoubtedly improve efforts to secure welfare reform which is fair”, but added: “Unfortunately, I do not believe these concessions yet go far enough.”
Image: Labour rebel Nadia Whittome said the government was ‘ignoring’ disabled people
Nadia Whittome accused the government of “ignoring” disabled people and urged ministers to go “back to the drawing board”.
Ian Byrne told the Commons he will vote against the “cruel cuts” to disability benefits because the “so-called concessions go nowhere near far enough”.
The vote will take place this evening, with coverage on Sky News’ Politics Hub live blog and on TV.