CFB takeaways: The 12-team playoff is coming one year too late
With Thanksgiving (and Rivalry Week) right around the corner, to be followed closely by Championship Week, thoughts invariably turn to potential College Football Playoff scenarios and the decisions the CFP selection committee will face.
There are more contenders than we usually see at this stage of the season, but one of them — unbeaten Florida State — was dealt a serious blow with an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis, further complicating an already complex picture.
For teams outside the playoff sphere, it’s a time to appreciate surprising success (such as at New Mexico State) or look for a fresh start and a new coach (like Syracuse).
ESPN’s college football reporters take it all in with the Week 12 takeaways.
The 12-team CFP is coming a year too late
This would have been the perfect season to start the 12-team playoff field, which doesn’t begin until next year. There haven’t been this many contenders this deep into the season before during the four-team playoff era. Four of the Power 5 conferences still have at least one undefeated team remaining, the lone exception being the Big 12. There are still eight teams with a path to the playoff — nine if you include Louisville, though the selection committee would have a hard time getting past the Cardinals’ loss to Pitt, and other conference champs will likely have stronger résumés.
Ohio State-Michigan will settle itself on the field, but this could still be the selection committee’s toughest task in a decade. While the weekly Tuesday rankings have lacked drama and major movement, the more they stay the same, the more difficult it will be on Selection Day.
Possibly the most challenging scenario would be if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game, one-loss Texas wins the Big 12 and two other undefeated conference champions — in addition to the Big Ten champ — remain. The Longhorns’ head-to-head win at Alabama will continue to loom large as long as their records are the same and their résumés are comparable. — Heather Dinich
Florida State presents test case for CFP committee
Florida State’s fortunes may have changed on a dime with the injury quarterback Travis suffered late in the first quarter of its 58-13 victory over North Alabama, a game in which Florida State scored 58 unanswered points to end the game. Because of his leadership and multidimensional capabilities out of the game’s most important position, Travis’ absence triggers a pivotal cause and effect.
Florida State enters its annual rivalry game with Florida at 11-0 for the first time since 2014. Redshirt junior Tate Rodemaker likely will take the reins to the offense for the rest of the season. Rodemaker, who had thrown only eight passes this season before being thrust into the spotlight, finished Saturday night 13-of-23 passing for 217 yards and two touchdowns. Rodemaker, who sparked a win at Louisville last September after Travis was injured, will make his first career start in the Swamp while leading an offense that is seventh in the FBS in scoring (40.1 PPG) and 17th in total offense (451.6 YPG).
With Washington also 11-0 for the first time since 1991 — when it split the national title with Miami — ahead of the Apple Cup with Washington State, an interesting debate could surface if both teams continue to win.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich referenced the 2014 playoff, when the committee moved Ohio State into the top four for the first time after Cardale Jones led the Buckeyes to a thrashing of Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. Led by Jones, Ohio State would go on to win the inaugural CFP title after dispatching of both Alabama and Oregon.
Rodemaker and the Seminoles will have that same opportunity to show what they’re worthy and capable of. But what happens if Washington jumps them this Tuesday after winning at Oregon State? Florida State has Louisville waiting in Charlotte for the ACC crown in two weeks while Washington may have to go to Las Vegas and beat Oregon a second time to earn the Pac-12 title. How much does the quality of competition matter? We may end up finding out if both teams can add two more wins apiece by the time Dec. 3 rolls around. — Blake Baumgartner
Babers, Syracuse face stark reality
Syracuse parted ways with coach Dino Babers on Sunday after the Orange fell to Georgia Tech 31-22. Babers ends his eight-year tenure with the Orange with an ACC record of 20-45 (41-55 overall) and just two bowl bids. Given those numbers, the decision is hardly a surprise.
But dig a little deeper into the situation at Syracuse, and Babers’ dismissal signals a larger set of problems — problems that echo the uphill battle so many low-end Power 5 teams will face moving forward in the new era of college football.
Babers was 12-12 in the past two seasons, which is actually better than Miami’s Mario Cristobal or Iowa State’s Matt Campbell, and the same as Houston’s Dana Holgorsen and Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi since the start of 2022. But the fan base had soured on Babers after Syracuse wasted back-to-back strong starts — 6-0 in 2022, 4-0 this year — and athletic director John Wildhack opted for a change.
But look at the cards Babers was dealt: The loss to Georgia Tech came with a converted tight end playing quarterback for the second straight week. It came in a season in which Babers replaced both coordinators after the incumbents left in lateral moves. Babers recruited well enough to have two players from last year’s team drafted and another make an NFL roster. Indeed, four others left for different Power 5 programs — the portal offering access to better NIL opportunities at bigger schools.
Six weeks ago, Babers was asked about Syracuse’s depth amid rising injury attrition, and he offered a blunt answer.
“It’s the same old thing: Depth is gone,” Babers said. “Our depth is in the transfer portal. You know how many guys we lost. You know what schools they play at. Schools like us, we’re not going to have a lot of depth because it gets bought away.”
More than a few Syracuse fans and critics suggested this was an easy excuse for another downward spiral, but Babers wasn’t wrong. This is life on the fringes of big-time college football today. Winning at a place like Syracuse has been hard for a long time, but Babers proved in 2018 that, with the right QB and a handful of diamonds in the rough, it was possible. He led Syracuse to a 10-win season and a No. 15 ranking in the final AP poll — two things that hadn’t happened in Central New York in 17 years.
But then COVID hit (and hit Syracuse harder than almost any team in the country), the portal opened, NIL became the law of the land and, yes, a hefty fraction of Babers’ best talent walked out the door.
That’s not to say Babers didn’t make mistakes. Witness Syracuse’s second-half collapse against Clemson last year or the woeful performance against Virginia Tech last month coming off an open date. There’s simply no room for error when the margins are so thin.
Perhaps the next coach will win more than 12 games in two years. It’s certainly possible. But the problems at Syracuse run deep, and some of them simply can’t be addressed by hiring a new coach or funneling more money into the football program. — David M. Hale
New Mexico State’s Jerry Kill a coaching treasure
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Auburn suffers setback vs. feisty New Mexico State
The Aggies snap the Tigers’ three-game winning streak with a stunning 38-10 upset at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
On a Wednesday in late October 2015, Jerry Kill sat before a microphone in Minneapolis, flushed with emotion, and announced he would be retiring as Minnesota’s coach. Kill, then 54, had been suffering more frequent seizures as a result of epilepsy.
He had endured a seizure during a game in 2011, and left Minnesota for seven games in 2013 as he tried to get his condition under control. But on advice of his doctor, Kill said he could no longer continue.
“This is not the way I wanted to go out,” Kill said. “But you all know about the struggles. And I did my best to change. But some of those struggles have returned. And I don’t want to cheat the game. And I ain’t going to change. I know somebody will ask, ‘Coach, what are you going to do?’ I don’t know. I ain’t done anything else. That’s the scary part.”
Turns out, Kill would coach again. And again. And again. Even when his health forced another retirement in 2017 at Rutgers, he would return. Kill is one of college football’s best coaches. He’s quite possibly the most resilient. He survived kidney cancer while coaching at Southern Illinois.
Nearly 3,000 days after the Minnesota retirement announcement, Kill led New Mexico State to a 31-10 win over Auburn. Although the Aggies came in at 8-3, overcoming a 2-3 start to win six straight, they were 25.5-point underdogs. Didn’t matter. Kill’s crew dominated Auburn, nearly doubling the Tigers in first downs (23-12) and total yards (414-213) en route to their first win against an SEC opponent.
New Mexico State hadn’t beaten a Power 5 team since 2011 against Minnesota, the day Kill had his seizure on the Gophers’ sideline.
Kill is 16-9 at New Mexico State, undeniably one of the toughest jobs in the FBS. Before Kill arrived, NMSU had made one bowl game since 1960, the last time the program made consecutive bowls. The nine wins mark the second most in team history and the most during its time in the FBS. New Mexico State is 6-1 during its first season in Conference USA and will face Liberty for the league title next week.
At 62, Kill continues to write a distinct and inspiring coaching story, and there are clearly more chapters to follow. — Adam Rittenberg
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Andrea Adelson
DALLAS — For the second straight season, Miami coach Mario Cristobal lamented the “self-inflicted” mistakes that cost the Hurricanes in a conference game in November.
This time, it was a 26-20 overtime loss to SMU on Saturday, a defeat that significantly damaged Miami’s ACC championship and College Football Playoff hopes as the Hurricanes dropped their second ACC game in three weeks and fell to 6-2.
Miami had 12 penalties for 96 yards — including an unsportsmanlike conduct call against defensive end Marquise Lightfoot on the final drive in regulation, when he hit quarterback Kevin Jennings after whistles had blown for a Miami timeout. That penalty helped SMU get into Miami territory and ultimately kick a 38-yard field goal to send the game into overtime.
Carson Beck threw an interception on the goal line on the first possession of overtime, and SMU won it when T.J. Harden scored from 1 yard out, as the SMU faithful stormed the field and took down one goalpost to celebrate the Mustangs’ first home win against an AP top 10 opponent since 1974.
Miami, meanwhile, saw its playoff chances drop to 9%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
“We didn’t take care of business, and that’s completely on us,” Cristobal said. “If you’re raised the right way, and you got the right stuff inside you, you go right back to work. You don’t know how things shake out. This is certainly a wild college football season, and the focus has to be on us taking care of our business.
“You always give credit to the opponent because that’s a good football team. When you make that many mistakes, it’s on everybody in the organization. You allow yourself to be put in a position where you can get beat, and that’s what happened today.”
Among the many Miami penalties were multiple false starts on offense — something that has become an issue over the past month. Cristobal said SMU was mimicking the Hurricanes’ cadence, and that was problematic for his linemen.
“It’s the things that we’ve made a point of emphasis. but obviously we’re not getting a result so we’re not coaching it, teaching it, and executing it well enough,” Cristobal said. “We had some issues with their stems and movements. We try to report when our cadence is being mimicked, but that didn’t get any traction. That happens in football, so no excuses. There’s not enough discipline as it relates to just holding our water and not jumping.”
As for the penalty on Lightfoot, Cristobal said Miami had called timeout because SMU had fourth-and-9 and the Hurricanes wanted to see how it would be lined up. But Lightfoot never heard the whistle stopping play and continued going toward Jennings.
“He’s just playing football,” Cristobal said. “I’m not sure why that’s called in such a critical situation when we’re trying to stop play, right? It’s really loud. I imagine people should step in and prevent players from moving forward and finishing a play.”
Jennings ended up throwing for a career-high 365 yards with two total touchdowns — despite tweaking an ankle injury that has bothered him for the bulk of the season. He left the game for several plays in the first half before returning, and he was a difference-maker as SMU rallied to win.
The Mustangs could not run the ball for the entire game until overtime came around and they wore down a deflated Miami defense.
SMU coach Rhett Lashlee, who signed a two-year extension earlier Saturday to make him one of the highest-paid coaches in the country, said, “This is a big win for our program and what we’re trying to build.”
As for Miami, it is another season filled with missed opportunities. Last year, Miami was undefeated headed into November and lost two of its final four games — one to Georgia Tech and one to Syracuse. Defensive breakdowns in the final month of the season cost the Hurricanes, so they made a change at defensive coordinator.
But the bulk of the issues on Saturday were on offense, as Miami struggled to move the ball with consistency — thanks in large part to the penalties. With CJ Daniels out, Miami relied on freshman Malachi Toney in the passing game but posed little threat vertically despite playing against an SMU secondary that has struggled at times to limit explosive plays.
What SMU does do well, though, is take the football away. The Mustangs entered the game with 20 total takeaways and added two more against Miami — none bigger than Ahmaad Moses‘ interception in overtime, his second of the game.
“They had a good coverage on for our play,” Beck said. “They got us, and he made a great play on the ball, so props to him.”
Miami is now 4-11 in November or later under Cristobal, the fourth-worst win percentage in the ACC over that span. Asked how his team would respond for the remainder of the season, Cristobal said: “You don’t sit around, throw your hands up and say I don’t know. You just go to work. Like I told the guys, you’ve got to be a grown man and face it.
“When things go wrong, that’s when all the rats start to come out and try to peck at you and all that other stuff. And you’ve got to go tell them to go you-know-what. And go to work and do it emphatically, and do it with some guts, and go fix the things that we have to fix so we can go get better.”
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Jake Trotter
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State hasn’t had a Heisman Trophy winner since quarterback Troy Smith captured the award in 2006.
But heading into the final month of the regular season, the Buckeyes now boast the Heisman front-runner.
Julian Sayin delivered another scintillating performance Saturday in a 38-14 win over Penn State. The sophomore quarterback completed 20 of 23 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns.
With this latest outing, Sayin jumped Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to become the Heisman favorite (+175), according to ESPN BET.
“If Julian continues to play the way that he’s playing, he deserves to be in the [Heisman] conversation, at the very least,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said.
Sayin now has four games this season completing 85% of his passes for more than 300 yards and at least three passing touchdowns; no other quarterback in the country has more than one such game, according to ESPN Research.
“He’s playing at an elite level,” said safety Caleb Downs, who transferred to Ohio State along with Sayin early in the 2024 offseason after Alabama coach Nick Saban retired. “I’m just excited for my guy.”
The top-ranked Buckeyes (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) are trying to win back-to-back national titles for the first time in program history. Sayin, who backed up Will Howard during last year’s championship run, is putting up gaudy numbers in his first season as the starter. He has thrown for 2,224 yards with 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
Sayin came into the weekend ranked fifth nationally with a QBR of 87.9. He also leads the country by a significant margin completing almost 81% of his passes; no other quarterback has a completion rate topping 75%.
“The receivers do a great job, and the running backs do a great job in pass protection and it’s really the offensive line giving me time to be able to go through my read,” Sayin said. “So, that’s really a team stat.”
Both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate caught passes from Sayin for 57 yards apiece, as the two wideouts combined for 247 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Sayin now has eight passing touchdowns of 20 or more air yards, which is tied for third most in the FBS, according to ESPN Research.
“We were aggressive and I thought some of Julian’s deep balls were just excellent,” Day said. “Julian’s really getting more and more confidence every day.”
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Eli Lederman
Texas Tech secured a commitment from one of the top quarterbacks in the 2027 cycle on Saturday night, with a pledge from four-star recruit Kavian Bryant, No. 47 in the ESPN Junior 300.
A dual-threat passer from Palestine, Texas, Bryant is ESPN’s No. 2 overall quarterback in the 2027 class. He picked the Red Raiders over finalists Texas, Florida State, Colorado and SMU.
“They reached out the most,” Bryant told ESPN of Texas Tech. “They came with the best offer and the best opportunity for me to play. I just feel like it’s the best fit.”
Bryant lands as a cornerstone commit in Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire’s 2027 recruiting class.
The 6-foot-1, 180-pound prospect is Texas Tech’s first offensive pledge and fourth overall commit in the cycle. Bryant now joins five-star defensive tackle Jalen Brewster (No. 6 overall), who picked the Red Raiders over a group of Big Ten and SEC powers on Oct. 4, as the program’s second top-100 commit in 2027. September defensive line pledges K’Adrian Redmond (No. 154) and Antonio Underwood (not ranked) round out Texas Tech’s collection of commits in the cycle.
The Red Raiders also hold the pledge of five-star linebacker LaDamion Guyton, who debuted at No. 13 in the 2026 ESPN 300 this week after reclassifying from the 2027 cycle last month.
Bryant has emerged as a highly productive quarterback across three seasons as the starter at Texas’ Palestine Westwood High School. He threw for 4,724 and 67 touchdowns to 10 interceptions across his freshman and sophomore seasons, accounting 1,521 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground over that span. Although Texas Tech was among the programs to offer Bryant in both football and basketball, he plans to focus solely on football at the next level.
Sources told ESPN that Texas, Florida State and Colorado lingered to the very end of the process late this week. But Bryant said no program recruited him more persistently than Texas Tech, highlighting his relationship with Red Raiders offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich as a key element in his decision.
Bryant worked out for Leftwich and McGuire in the summer, then returned to Texas Tech on Sept. 13 as part of a string of visits with each of his finalists this fall.
“They really, really wanted me,” Bryant said. “They watch my film every day. They show me what I’m good at and what I’m bad at, and I just listen. It’s part of why they’re the best.”
Sources expected the Red Raiders to remain aggressive in recruiting top talent in the 2027 cycle, with defensive tackle Georgia Toia (No. 29 overall), wide receiver Julian Caldwell (No. 40) and linebacker Kaden McCarty (No. 91) among their top targets. Now on board with the Red Raiders, Bryant will be tasked with helping to recruit an elite class to Texas Tech.
“I feel like I can go in there and lead a class,” Bryant said. “And whether it’s as a true freshman or the next year, I feel like I can go there and win a national championship.”
Anchored by five-star pledges in Guyton and offensive tackle Felix Ojo (No. 24), Texas Tech’s 2026 class sits at No. 18 in ESPN’s latest rankings for the cycle. The 13th-ranked Red Raiders visited Kansas State on Saturday at 7-1 with the nation’s fourth-ranked scoring offense.
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