Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high, topping $504 on Monday. The record comes ahead of the company’s fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.
If that’s not astounding enough, the company’s forecast for the fiscal fourth quarter, according to LSEG estimates, is likely to show an even bigger number: almost 200% growth.
Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, Wall Street will be closely scrutinizing the company that’s been at the heart of this year’s artificial intelligence boom.
Nvidia’s stock price has ballooned 245% in 2023, far outpacing any other member of the S&P 500. Its market cap now sits at $1.2 trillion, well above Meta or Tesla. Any indication on the earnings call that generative AI enthusiasm is cooling, or that some big customers are moving over to AMD’s processors, or that China restrictions are having a detrimental effect on the business could spell trouble for a stock that’s been on such a tear.
“Expectations are high leading into NVDA’s FQ3’24 earnings call on Nov-21,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a report last week. They have a buy rating on the stock and said they “expect a beat/raise.”
However, they flagged China restrictions and competitive concerns as two issues that will capture investor attention. In particular, the emergence of AMD in the generative AI market presents a new dynamic for Nvidia, which has mostly had the AI graphics processing unit (GPU) market to itself.
AMD CEO Lisa Su said late last month that the company expects GPU revenue of about $400 million during the fourth quarter, and more than $2 billion in 2024. The company said in June that the MI300X, its most advanced GPU for AI, would start shipping to some customers this year.
Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices are an issue.
“NVDA needs to forcefully counter the narrative its products are too expensive for generative AI inference,” the Bank of America analysts wrote.
Last week, Nvidia unveiled the H200, a GPU designed for training and deploying the kinds of AI models that are powering the generative AI explosion, allowing companies to develop smarter chatbots and convert simple text into creative graphical designs.
The new GPU is an upgrade from the H100, the chip OpenAI used to train its most-advanced large language model, GPT-4 Turbo. H100 chips cost between $25,000 and $40,000, according to an estimate from Raymond James, and thousands of them working together are needed to create the biggest models in a process called “training.”
The H100 chips are part of Nvidia’s data center group, which saw revenue in the fiscal second quarter surge 171% to $10.32 billion. That accounted for about three-quarters of Nvidia’s total revenue.
For the fiscal third quarter, analysts expect data center growth to almost quadruple to $13.02 billion from $3.83 billion a year earlier, according to FactSet. Total revenue is projected to rise 172% to $16.2 billion, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG, formerly Refinitiv.
Based on current estimates, growth will peak in the fiscal fourth quarter at about 195%, LSEG estimates show. Expansion will remain robust throughout 2024 but is expected to decelerate each quarter of the year.
Executives can expect to field questions on the earnings call related to the massive shake-up at OpenAI, the creator of the chatbot ChatGPT, which was a major catalyst of Nvidia’s growth this year. On Friday, OpenAI’s board announced the sudden firing of CEO Sam Altman over disputes about the company’s speed of product development and where it’s focusing its efforts.
OpenAI is a big buyer of Nvidia’s GPUs, as is Microsoft, OpenAI’s top backer. Following a chaotic weekend, OpenAI on Sunday night said former Twitch CEO Emmett Shear would be leading the company on an interim basis, and soon after that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said Altman and ousted OpenAI Chairman Greg Brockman would be joining to lead a new advanced AI research team.
Nvidia investors have so far brushed off China-related concerns despite the potential significance to the company’s business. The H100 and A100 AI chips were the first to be hit by new U.S. restrictions last year that aimed to curb sales to China. Nvidia said in September 2022 that the U.S. government would still allow it to develop the H100 in China, which accounts for 20% to 25% of its data center business.
The company has reportedly found a way to keep selling into the world’s second-biggest economy while keeping compliant with U.S. rules. The company is set to deliver three new chips, based on the H100, to Chinese manufacturers, Chinese financial media Cailian Press reported last week, citing sources.
Nvidia has historically avoided providing annual guidance, preferring to look ahead only to the next quarter. But given how much money investors have poured into the company this year and how little else there is for them to follow this week, they’ll be listening closely to CEO Jensen Huang’s tone on the conference call for any sign that the buzz in generative AI may be wearing off.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy speaks during the GeekWire Summit in Seattle on Oct. 5, 2021.
David Ryder | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Amazon has discontinued a secretive effort to develop an at-home fertility tracker, according to internal documents and people familiar with the matter.
The company had been working to launch a fertility monitoring device and companion smartphone app for the past four years as part of a project codenamed “Encore,” said the people, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak to the press. The team sat within Amazon’s Grand Challenge, also known as its Special Projects division, the sources said.
Last month, Amazon told people working on the tracker that it was disbanding the team. Those being laid off will remain on Amazon’s payroll until Dec. 27, but won’t be expected to work during that time, according to documents reviewed by CNBC.
If staffers don’t secure another job by that date, Amazon will provide them with a “lump sum” severance payment equal to one week of salary for every six months of tenure at the company, the documents said.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has been reeling in costs companywide since late 2022, when inflationary pressures and rising interest rates led to a slowdown across the tech and consumer markets. In addition to slashing more than 27,000 jobs, Jassy has shuttered several projects, ranging from a roving sidewalk robot to a telehealth offering and a rapid delivery service.
The wave of frugality marks a distinct departure from the approach taken by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Jassy’s predecessor, who was known for greenlighting experimental projects and giving employees extended runway to develop them, even if they burned cash along the way. Grand Challenge was one of the hallmarks of that era.
Bezos launched Grand Challenge in 2014 as a way for Amazon to tinker with riskier projects that may or may not see the light of day. Grand Challenge was the brains behind a pair of connected eyeglasses equipped with Amazon’s Alexa voice assistant and a machine learning tool for analyzing medical records.
On the morning of Oct. 28, employees working on the fertility tracker were told to join a videoconference where a director of the team informed them that the project was ending. The call lasted about two minutes, one of the people said.
A layoff notice viewed by CNBC was signed by Doug Weibel, who took over as the head of Grand Challenge after its founding leader, Babak Parviz, left in 2022 and joined Madrona Venture Group.
Margaret Callahan, an Amazon spokesperson, confirmed the layoffs and the existence of the project in a statement to CNBC. Roughly 100 employees will be laid off, Callahan confirmed.
“Following a recent review, we’ve decided to discontinue this project within Grand Challenge, and we’re working directly with employees whose roles are impacted to support them through the transition and help them find other opportunities within Amazon,” Callahan said.
Predicting fertility with saliva
The project was born out of the company’s 2020 acquisition of Wisconsin-based startup bluDiagnostics, the sources said.
BluDiagnostics was founded in 2015 by Weibel, Katie Brenner and Jodi Schroll, all of whom joined Grand Challenge following the purchase. The startup had developed a thermometer-like device, called FertilityFinder, to help women track their fertility from home by testing their saliva and measuring two key hormones, estradiol and progesterone. The results of the test were viewable through a corresponding app.
Business Insider reported on aspects of the fertility device in 2022, when its codename was Project Tiberius.
The team was working to develop its own saliva collection device and mobile app, which could predict when a user might be in the fertile window. Users could also log their period symptoms, sexual activity and other data to assist with tracking their fertility.There are similar offerings on the market from companies including Inne, Oova, Ava and Mira, along with fertility and ovulation tracking apps like Flo, Clue and Max Levchin’s Glow.
Amazon initially aimed to release the product this year, but the timing was pushed out after the team encountered technical issues with the device, one of the people said. It was a costly endeavor and required significant upfront investments for lab research and development, in addition to the high salaries for scientists and engineers, the sources said, adding that the team’s weekly overhead was roughly $1.5 million. Amazon didn’t comment on the figure.
Only one project now remains active within Grand Challenge. Its focus is on health tech, the people said.
The BlackRock logo is pictured outside the company’s headquarters in the Manhattan borough of New York City on May 25, 2021.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
BlackRock has expanded its tokenized money market fund to include several more blockchains.
The investment manager said Wednesday that its USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) is now available to investors on the Aptos; Arbitrum; Avalanche; OP Mainnet, formerly known as Optimism; and Polygon blockchains. It initially launched the fund on Ethereum in March.
“There’s some irony in the fact that with … [iShares Bitcoin Trust], we took a crypto native investment exposure and we put it in a traditional finance wrapper … and with tokenization, we’re taking traditional finance investment exposure, and we’re putting it in a crypto native wrapper,” Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, said in March.
“That dichotomy will persist for a while,” he added at the time. “But eventually, we expect there will be some convergence that looks like the best of the old system and the best of this new technology fused into a next generation infrastructure set in finance.”
The announcement follows a weeklong rally in cryptocurrencies after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Polygon’s token climbed 28%, according to Coin Metrics. On the campaign trail, Trump promised more supportive regulations for crypto projects and businesses, a reversal from Biden administration policy, in which the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has largely regulated the industry through enforcement actions, hampering growth.
DeFi is one of the most popular sectors among crypto market participants but has suffered from the lack of regulatory clarity, with tokens of some DeFi projects being classified as securities in SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase last year.
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Bitcoin rose above $93,000 for the first time on Wednesday, adding to its postelection rally, as traders pored through October inflation data.
The price of the flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by more than 3% at $92,612.27. At one point, it briefly rose to a fresh record of $93,469.08.
Traders were digesting the most recent consumer price index, which showed prices increased 0.2% in October, bringing the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. That was in line with expectations.
Bitcoin, which has recently benefited from a big postelection rally across risk assets, is seen by many investors as a hedge against potential fiscal policy that could spark inflation.
Other cryptocurrencies got a small boost as traders digested the past week of postelection gains. Ether and the Solana token were each higher by about 1%.
Dogecoin added 3%. It has been one of the biggest winners since the election due to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign and forthcoming role in his administration, which was announced Tuesday night.
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