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Rishi Sunak has promised he will cut taxes now the government has achieved its pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year.

The prime minister has been under pressure from many in his party to reduce the tax burden – which currently sits at a 70-year high – ahead of the next election, and rumours have been swirling that such policies could be announced in the autumn statement on Wednesday.

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Making a speech in north London on his economic plans, Mr Sunak said his “argument has never been that we shouldn’t cut taxes – it’s been that we can only cut taxes once we have controlled inflation and debt”.

And with the change in inflation – confirmed last week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to have dropped to 4.6% – it was time for the government to “begin the next phase” of its plan and “turn our attention to cutting tax”.

The prime minister did not reveal what taxes would be for the chop, but they are expected to be confirmed on Wednesday when Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivers his statement in the Commons.

Can the chancellor lift the gloom? Watch live coverage on Sky News of the autumn statement from 11am on Wednesday.

During his speech, Mr Sunak celebrated the fall in inflation – though it still remains more than double the Bank of England target of 2% – saying it showed “when we make a major economic commitment, we will deliver it”.

Then moving on to the big question ahead of the autumn statement, he said: “I want to cut taxes, I believe in cutting taxes, what clearer expression could there be of my governing philosophy than the belief that people, not government, make the best decisions about their money.

“But doing that responsibly is hard. We must avoid doing anything that puts at risk our progress of controlling inflation, and no matter how much we might want them to, history shows that tax cuts don’t automatically pay for themselves.

“And I can’t click my fingers and suddenly wish away all the reasons that taxes had to increase in the first place – partly because of COVID and Putin’s war in Ukraine, and partly because we want to support people to live in dignity in retirement with a decent pension and good health care which will cost more as the population ages.”

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But the prime minister added: “Now that inflation has halved and our growth is stronger, meaning revenues are higher, we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax.”

The prime minister said the government “can’t do everything at once”, and it would take “discipline” to “prioritise” what should be reduced.

However, he promised to make the reductions “in a serious, responsible way, based on fiscal rules”, adding: “Over time we can and we will cut taxes.”

Sunak’s argument has flaws – he’ll have to work hard to win it


Sam Coates

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Well, that was wild. Today, Rishi Sunak appeared to have perfected the art of the low-key big speech.

The prime minister announced tax cuts are coming right now, set out the five long-term priorities he’ll fight the election on and made his most aggressive attack on the Tory right’s belief in self-funding tax cuts.

All done on a hugely busy political day, competing with the COVID inquiry, CBI annual conference featuring the chancellor, an AI event with the deputy prime minister on the day a refreshed plan for foreign aid spending was being released and Lord Cameron’s formal arrival in the Lords.

At the heart of Sunak’s speech was an argument that having reduced inflation and debt, now everyone can share in the rewards. A prime minister – justifiably – wanting to share some of the credit for Wednesday’s tax cut announcement in the autumn statement.

This is his argument: “We could only cut taxes once we’ve controlled inflation and debt… and the official statistics show that promise has now been met.”

There are there problems with this statement from the prime minister. The first is that he has met only one, not both of his inflation targets – his government’s other is to get it back down to 2%, and at 4.6% it’s still very high by the standards of the last 20 years.

Secondly, debt is not going down – in absolute terms it is rising. Sunak means, but does not say, that debt is falling as a proportion of GDP, a slight of hand that matters.

Thirdly, he is boasting about growth, saying: “Our growth is stronger.” Yes, stronger than the March budget, but the last quarterly GDP figures came in at 0.0%, nil growth, and the latest indications from business point to all but no growth and maybe even recession in the coming months.

Instead what has changed is circumstance – the election, even at its furthest away point, is getting closer, while his colleagues are circling on a range of topics and he feels more unstable than at any point since the start of the year after the Rwanda court defeat.

This is an argument he is going to have to work very hard if he wants to win.

Read more:
What chancellor could announce in autumn statement

Over the weekend, Mr Hunt insisted the focus of the upcoming budget would be on growth for business, telling Sky News he wanted to help create a “productive, dynamic, fizzing economy”.

But the chancellor also said “everything is on the table” when asked about swirling rumours over possible tax cuts.

Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates understands taxes on personal incomes will fall in Wednesday’s statement, as the government also seeks to help households with the cost of living crisis.

In the latest edition of the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast, by Sky News and Politico, he said the cut was unlikely to be on the basic rate of income tax though.

Click to subscribe to Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts

However, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Paul Johnson, warned there was “no headroom there at all” for major tax cuts.

The economist said chancellors could “always find a few billion in a budget or an autumn statement if they want to”, but the public finances were “in such a mess” due to the amount being spent on debt interest, that there wasn’t a lot of wriggle room for Mr Hunt.

During his speech, Mr Sunak also promised to “clamp down” on welfare fraudsters, calling it a “national scandal” and “an enormous waste of human potential” that around two million people of working age were not in employment.

The government is said to be considering a big squeeze on benefits in order to find savings, effectively cutting working age welfare payments for millions of people.

The prime minister said: “We believe in the inherent dignity of a good job, and we believe that work, not welfare is the best route out of poverty.

“So we must do more to support those who can work to do so, and we will clamp down on welfare fraudsters because the system must be fair for taxpayers who fund it.”

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Chancellor: ‘Tax burden is too high’

Mr Sunak also used his speech to launch an attack on Labour for having “no experience” in business, and accused Sir Keir Starmer and the shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves of offering “fairy tale” answers to the questions of how to grow the economy.

But Labour’s national campaign coordinator, Pat McFadden, said: “The Tories have failed to deliver on so many pledges from the past. Why should people believe they will deliver on pledges for the future?

“It sums up this Conservative Party to claim things will be better tomorrow when they can’t even fix the problems of today.”

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Business

Inside ‘data centre alley’ – the biggest story in economics right now

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Inside 'data centre alley' - the biggest story in economics right now

If you ever fly to Washington DC, look out of the window as you land at Dulles Airport – and you might snatch a glimpse of the single biggest story in economics right now.

There below you, you will see scattered around the fields and woods of the local area a set of vast warehouses that might to the untrained eye look like supermarkets or distribution centres. But no: these are in fact data centres – the biggest concentration of data centres anywhere in the world.

For this area surrounding Dulles Airport has more of these buildings, housing computer servers that do the calculations to train and run artificial intelligence (AI), than anywhere else. And since AI accounts for the vast majority of economic growth in the US so far this year, that makes this place an enormous deal.

Down at ground level you can see the hallmarks as you drive around what is known as “data centre alley”. There are enormous power lines everywhere – a reminder that running these plants is an incredibly energy-intensive task.

This tiny area alone, Loudoun County, consumes roughly 4.9 gigawatts of power – more than the entire consumption of Denmark. That number has already tripled in the past six years, and is due to be catapulted ever higher in the coming years.

Inside ‘data centre alley’

We know as much because we have gained rare access into the heart of “data centre alley”, into two sites run by Digital Realty, one of the biggest datacentre companies in the world. It runs servers that power nearly all the major AI and cloud services in the world. If you send a request to one of those models or search engines there’s a good chance you’ve unknowingly used their machines yourself.

Inside a site run by Digital Realty
Image:
Inside a site run by Digital Realty

Their Digital Dulles site, under construction right now, is due to consume up to a gigawatt in power all told, with six substations to help provide that power. Indeed, it consumes about the same amount of power as a large nuclear power plant.

Walking through the site, a series of large warehouses, some already equipped with rows and rows of backup generators, there to ensure the silicon chips whirring away inside never lose power, is a striking experience – a reminder of the physical underpinnings of the AI age. For all that this technology feels weightless, it has enormous physical demands. It entails the construction of these massive concrete buildings, each of which needs enormous amounts of power and water to keep the servers cool.

Sky's Ed Conway at the data centre
Image:
Sky’s Ed Conway at the data centre

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We were given access inside one of the company’s existing server centres – behind multiple security cordons into rooms only accessible with fingerprint identification. And there we saw the infrastructure necessary to keep those AI chips running. We saw an Nvidia DGX H100 running away, in a server rack capable of sucking in more power than a small village. We saw the cooling pipes running in and out of the building, as well as the ones which feed coolant into the GPUs (graphic processing units) themselves.

Such things underline that to the extent that AI has brainpower, it is provided not out of thin air, but via very physical amenities and infrastructure. And the availability of that infrastructure is one of the main limiting factors for this economic boom in the coming years.

According to economist Jason Furman, once you subtract AI and related technologies, the US economy barely grew at all in the first half of this year. So much is riding on this. But there are some who question whether the US is going to be able to construct power plants quickly enough to fuel this boom.

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Is Trump’s AI plan a ‘tech bro’ manifesto?

For years, American power consumption remained more or less flat. That has changed rapidly in the past couple of years. Now, AI companies have made grand promises about future computing power, but that depends on being able to plug those chips into the grid.

Last week the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, warned AI could indeed be a financial bubble.

He said: “There are echoes in the current tech investment surge of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. It was the internet then… it is AI now. We’re seeing surging valuations, booming investment and strong consumption on the back of solid capital gains. The risk is that with stronger investment and consumption, a tighter monetary policy will be needed to contain price pressures. This is what happened in the late 1990s.”

‘The terrifying thing is…’

For those inside the AI world, this also feels like uncharted territory.

Helen Toner, executive director of Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and formerly on the OpenAI board, said: “The terrifying thing is: no one knows how much further AI is going to go, and no one really knows how much economic growth is going to come out of it.

“The trends have certainly been that the AI systems we are developing get more and more sophisticated over time, and I don’t see signs of that stopping. I think they’ll keep getting more advanced. But the question of how much productivity growth will that create? How will that compare to the absolutely gobsmacking investments that are being made today?”

Whether it’s a new industrial revolution or a bubble – or both – there’s no denying AI is a massive economic story with massive implications.

For energy. For materials. For jobs. We just don’t know how massive yet.

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Business

Pizza Hut to shut 68 restaurants in UK after company behind venues falls into administration

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Pizza Hut to shut 68 restaurants in UK after company behind venues falls into administration

Pizza Hut is to close 68 restaurants and 11 delivery sites with the loss of more than 1,200 jobs after the company behind its UK venues fell into administration.

The company has said 1,210 workers are being made redundant as part of the closures.

DC London Pie, the firm running Pizza Hut’s restaurants in the UK, appointed administrators from corporate finance firm FTI on Monday.

It comes less than a year after the business bought the chain’s restaurants from insolvency.

On Monday, American hospitality giant Yum! Brands, which owns the global Pizza Hut business, said it had bought the UK restaurant operation in a pre-pack administration deal – a rescue deal that will save 64 sites and secure the future of 1,276 workers.

A spokesperson for Pizza Hut UK confirmed the Yum! deal and said as a result it was “pleased to secure the continuation of 64 sites to safeguard our guest experience and protect the associated jobs.

“Approximately 2,259 team members will transfer to the new Yum! equity business under UK TUPE legislation, including above-restaurant leaders and support teams.”

Nicolas Burquier, Managing Director of Pizza Hut Europe and Canada, called Monday’s agreement a “targeted acquisition” which, he said, “aims to safeguard our guest experience and protect jobs where possible.

“Our immediate priority is operational continuity at the acquired locations and supporting colleagues through the transition.”

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The administration came after HMRC filed a winding up petition on Friday against DC London Pie.

DC London Pie was the company formed after Directional Capital, which operated franchises in Sweden and Denmark, snapped up 139 UK restaurants from the previous UK franchisee Heart with Smart Limited in January of this year.

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Bank of England job fears as Andrew Bailey warns of tough choices

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Bank of England job fears as Andrew Bailey warns of tough choices

Staff at the Bank of England are on alert for potential job cuts in Threadneedle Street after the governor, Andrew Bailey, warned of tough decisions about the institution’s future cost base.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Bailey informed Bank of England employees in a memo last week that it was taking a detailed look at costs, although it did not specifically refer to the prospect of redundancies.

One source said the memo had been sent while Mr Bailey was attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington.

Its precise wording was unclear on Monday, but one source said it had warned of “tough choices” that would need to be made as the bank accelerated its investment in new technology.

They added that managers had been briefed to expect to have to make savings of between 6% and 8% of their operating budgets.

The Bank of England employed 5,810 people at the end of February, of whom just over 5,000 were full-time, according to its annual report.

Those numbers were marginally higher than in the previous year.

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The central bank’s budget, funded through a levy, is expected to be £596m in the current financial year.

The workforce figures include the Prudential Regulation Authority, Britain’s main banking regulator, which is set to get a new boss next year when Sam Woods steps down after two terms in the role.

A Bank of England spokesperson declined to comment on the contents of Mr Bailey’s memo.

They also declined to provide details of the timing of any previous rounds of redundancies at the bank.

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