The committee will meet just twice more this year. So far, the job has been pretty easy: Copy, paste. Indeed, there has been so much chalk at the top of the rankings this year, it’s hardly worth the price of the flights for the committee to meet about it.
But even if the upsets haven’t sent the rankings into chaos just yet, it’s worth reconsidering some of the underlying assumptions we’ve used to inform the standings. Because 12 weeks into the 2023 season, there has not been much to be surprised about, but there’s always plenty to be angry about.
Losses by teams ranked in the AP top 8 at this point in… 2014 – 20 2015 – 17 2016 – 19 2017 – 17 2018 – 16 2019 – 12 2021 – 15 2022 – 15 2023 – 6*
*all were vs teams ranked 13 or better at the time.
This is the part where we’re supposed to lament the Seminoles’ precipitous tumble from No. 4 to No. 5 after Jordan Travis was injured in a win over North Alabama.
Well, we’re not going to do that. Washington, as we noted each of the past two weeks, had as good a claim as any to the top four, and after its win against Oregon State in Week 12, it has vaulted into the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s strength of record. No one should be angry the Huskies are at No. 4. If anything, the Huskies should be upset they’re not higher.
The problem for Florida State is that’s where the conversation seems to end. But it shouldn’t.
Ohio State and Michigan each have résumés underpinned almost entirely by beating Penn State. Michigan’s next-best win is Maryland. Heck, eight of Michigan’s 11 wins have come against teams ranked 60th or worse in the Football Power Index (FPI). That’s a higher share of wins against bottom-half teams than Tulane. Ohio State’s second-best win is a last-second score against Notre Dame (when the Irish used only 10 defenders), a team Louisville — FSU’s ACC title game opponent — beat by 13. And how do we know Penn State is good? The Nittany Lions’ lone relevant win is over Iowa. Iowa, people! The Hawkeyes treat the forward pass like the Amish treat electric cars.
The season for both Michigan and Ohio State essentially comes down to which one beats the other, a borderline one-game season, yet there’s no question whatsoever that the winner will be in the playoff.
FSU, though? Even if the Seminoles finish 13-0, there will be a chorus of folks who think they don’t belong because they play in the ACC or because they’ve played too many close games or, most significantly now, because they don’t have their starting QB.
Of course, it’s also worth noting that Stetson Bennett wasn’t Georgia‘s top quarterback option in 2021. Nor was Jake Fromm when the Bulldogs made it to the national title game in 2017. That 2017 game was won by a QB coming off the bench (Tua Tagovailoa). Trevor Lawrence wasn’t Clemson‘s starter for the first four weeks of 2018 when the Tigers won it all. Max Duggan lost the starting QB job for TCU coming out of fall camp last year, but he still led the Horned Frogs to the title game. And, of course, there’s Cardale Jones, who came to Ohio State’s rescue in 2014 and won the Buckeyes a national title.
Now, no one is confusing Tate Rodemaker with Tagovailoa or Lawrence, but is there any proof he can’t play at least as well as Jones, Bennett or Duggan? And the point here isn’t that anything is guaranteed for FSU post-Travis, but the history of No. 2 (or No. 3) QBs in September making noise in January is actually a lot more extensive than most folks remember.
So yes, Washington is deserving. So, too, is Florida State — with or without Travis. And if the Noles win the next two against Florida and Louisville, there shouldn’t be a second’s worth of debate. They’re in.
A few quick “did you knows” on the Cardinals:
Did you know Louisville has six wins against bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents? That’s more than any other team in the country.
Did you know Louisville has a road win over a ranked opponent, something Oregon, Alabama and Missouri are all missing from their résumés?
Did you know Louisville’s strength of record is better than Missouri’s?
And yes, Louisville lost to Pitt in a game in which its best offensive player had two touches and, in the rain and bad weather, the Cardinals turned the ball over three times.
The Pitt loss is an anchor dragging Louisville for understandable reasons, but it certainly seems as if a dominant win over Notre Dame or a road win against 8-3 NC State should count for something. And while this was largely semantics before Travis’ injury at Florida State, there’s a very real scenario now where Louisville runs the table the rest of the way and earns an ACC championship with a 12-1 record.
And if that happens, the committee has made it clear the Cards will still be at the back of the line when it comes to playoff positioning.
Let’s do a little blind résumé evaluation here:
Team A: 9-2, No. 17 in SP+ and No. 11 in strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 14, losses by a combined 19 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, one loss at home, one on the road
Team B: 9-2, No. 16 in SP+ and No. 8 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 11, losses by a combined 49 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Team C: 9-2, No. 15 in SP+ and No. 13 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 8, losses by a combined eight points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Best win goes to Team C, closest losses go to Team C, and the best SP+ ranking goes to Team C. There’s more to the story, of course, but that’s a good starting point to say Team C is the best of the bunch, right?
Well, Team C is the Sooners. Team B is Ole Miss, ranked one spot higher, and Team A is Missouri, ranked four spots higher. Even Penn State comes in ahead of Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is being judged by its losses, and comparatively the close L’s to Kansas and Oklahoma State might seem a bit worse than blowout defeats at the hands of Georgia or LSU. But Oklahoma was probably the better team in both losses, but a bit of bad timing and bad luck (and a few bad plays) made the difference. Kansas is a solid team and was healthier when it beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma State wavers between a house cat and a lion, and the Sooners happened to catch the Pokes on a lion day. But they also beat Texas, a team that has legitimate national title aspirations, and that shows where Oklahoma’s ceiling is.
Where is Missouri’s or Penn State’s or Ole Miss’ ceiling? Not nearly so high.
We’ve reached the point in the season where four-loss teams are in the top 25, yet Utah isn’t one of them. Is that fair?
Well, the Utes are likely damaged by their current trend line — losses in three of four, two of which were by 28 or more. But it’s worth remembering all four losses were to teams currently in the committee’s top 16, while the Utes also have solid wins over Florida, UCLA and USC. Compare that to Tennessee, the highest ranked of the four-loss teams, and it’s a no-brainer. Utah has the better strength of record, a head-to-head win over a team that beat Tennessee and a higher-ranked best win (UCLA, No. 25 in SP+ for Utah; No. 33 Kentucky for Tennessee). And even if we’re taking a “What have you done for me lately?” approach, the Vols, too, are coming off back-to-back blowout losses.
Could this all be a conspiracy by the committee to prop up the SEC and hurt the eventual Pac-12 champion? You didn’t hear that from us.
To its credit, the committee has routinely overlooked the bottom-line win-loss record in favor of considering the context of those wins and losses. This is critical at the top of the rankings, but the same level of nuance isn’t always afforded to the bottom of the rankings. To which we give you the second-highest-ranked Group of 5 team: Liberty at No. 25.
The Flames are 11-0, which is laudable. But their best win came against New Mexico State in Week 2, a time before the Aggies had learned how to play football. Their second-best win came against Jacksonville State, a program in its first year of FBS play. All 11 of Liberty’s wins have come against teams ranked 80th or worse in the current FPI. Compare that to, say, Toledo (10-1 with a win over Miami-Ohio) or UNLV (9-2 with wins over San José State, Air Force and Vanderbilt) and it starts to seem as if Liberty benefits strictly from the zero in the loss column. But would you take Liberty over Illinois? That’s where Toledo’s loss came from. Or how about Michigan? Because half of UNLV’s losses came at the Big House.
The race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bid is being led (rightfully) by Tulane, but if the Green Wave slip up in the final two weeks (vs. red-hot UTSA and SMU in the AAC championship), the bid shouldn’t belong to Liberty just because it had the easiest path to an undefeated season.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida quarterback DJ Lagway will “start throwing in a couple weeks,” coach Billy Napier said Saturday.
Lagway was limited throughout spring practice with a shoulder injury that lingered from last season and played sparingly in the team’s annual spring game. Lagway played five snaps Saturday, all first down handoffs.
“DJ’s doing great,” Napier said. “He’ll start throwing here in a couple weeks. Just in general, very positive there. The lower-body stuff was good, and I think we’re working on just kind of getting him in position for the next step. But, in general, there are a lot of positives; everything’s on schedule.”
Napier raised red flags last month when he said Lagway would be a limited participant during spring, his first as the team’s starter. Instead of getting valuable repetitions, Lagway spent a month handing off, watching passing plays and calling the offense.
“He’s frustrated,” Napier said. “Obviously, he wants to play. Nobody likes to play more than that guy.”
Lagway missed some practice time last fall with shoulder soreness, a lingering issue from his high school days. But it never caused him to miss a game.
He was sidelined one game last November while recovering from a strained left hamstring he suffered against Georgia. But he started every game after, including Florida’s bowl victory against Tulane in December.
Napier said the plan to sit him during spring was “to be very smart.” Now, given rest, Lagway is expected to be full go when the team reconvenes for workouts in June. Of course, the real test will come when he starts throwing again.
Lagway completed 60% of his passes for 1,915 yards, with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a freshman last season. He took over the starting role after Graham Mertz tore a knee ligament at Tennessee last October.
The Gators signed college journeyman Harrison Bailey to be Lagway’s backup this fall. Bailey has played at Tennessee, UNLV and Louisville. Bailey completed 29 of 43 passes for 363 yards, with three touchdowns and an interception in the spring game. He also was sacked five times.
Tennessee has moved on from starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, with coach Josh Heupel telling reporters Saturday that “no one is bigger than” the program.
Heupel said the tipping point came Friday morning, when Iamaleava was a “no-show” for practice amid his ongoing NIL contract discussions with the school.
“This program has been around for a long time,” Heupel said after the Volunteers played their spring game Saturday. “There are a lot of great coaches, a lot of great players who came before that laid the cornerstone pieces, the legacy, the tradition that is Tennessee football. It’s going to be around a long time after I’m gone and after they’re gone.”
Iamaleava notified offensive coordinator Joey Halzle late Friday night that he was in the process of filling out his paperwork and planned to enter the transfer portal when it opens Wednesday, sources told ESPN’s Chris Low. Heupel and other staff members had been trying to reach Iamaleava and his representatives to no avail after he missed practice and meetings earlier Friday, sources said.
Tennessee was aware that Iamaleava’s representatives had reached out to at least one other school, Oregon, prior to the start of spring practice, sources told ESPN, but Oregon said it wasn’t interested.
The day before the winter portal ended in January, Iamaleava’s representatives asked for his deal to increase to the $4 million range, but Tennessee didn’t redo it.
“We weren’t going to flinch this time either,” a source told ESPN.
Iamaleava was making $2.4 million on a contract that was reported to be $8 million when he signed it. But he started receiving payments when he was still in high school, and the total value of the contract would have been closer to $10 million over the life of the deal, sources told ESPN.
Iamaleava just completed his redshirt freshman season, which means he would have three seasons remaining at his next destination. The spring transfer portal opens Wednesday, and he is expected to be the most notable player available.
“I want to thank him for everything he’s done since he’s gotten here, as a recruit and who he was as a player and how he competed inside the building,” Heupel said. “Obviously, we’re moving forward as a program without him. I said it to the guys today. There’s no one that’s bigger than the Power T. That includes me.”
Iamaleava showed promise his first year as a starter, leading Tennessee to the College Football Playoff and a 10-3 season. He threw for 2,616 yards, 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He completed 63.8% of his passes.
The Volunteers’ offense finished No. 9 in the 16-team SEC in scoring offense last year in league play, and Iamaleava was the conference’s No. 10 quarterback in passing yards per game (200.6).
The move puts both Tennessee and Iamaleava in difficult situations heading into the 2025 season. Iamaleava’s departure leaves Tennessee with just two scholarship quarterbacks, neither of whom has started a college game.
Heupel said Saturday that the program will look to add another quarterback in the spring portal.
Sources added to ESPN that with Iamaleava’s future uncertain, officials from Tennessee’s collective began to make calls Friday to see what the potential market could look like for his replacement. One quarterback got more money from his school Friday after Tennessee’s collective called third-party officials tied to him, a source told ESPN.
One factor looming over both sides is that SEC rules prohibit transferring within the conference in the spring if the player desires immediate eligibility. That means Iamaleava can’t go to an SEC school and no quarterback on an SEC roster can go to Tennessee if they hope to play in 2025.
This move puts redshirt freshman backup quarterback Jake Merklinger in the driver’s seat to be Tennessee’s starter next year. It’s difficult, though not impossible, for a college quarterback to come in, learn the offense and win the starting job in summer camp. True freshman George MacIntyre is the backup, and Tennessee has a top-10 recruit in the Class of 2026, Faizon Brandon, committed. He is a five-star recruit who is ESPN’s No. 3 overall quarterback.
The market for Iamaleava will be a fascinating one, especially if he is seeking the same amount of money (in the mid-$2 million range). While there is available money in the system the next few months before the era of revenue share is codified, it’s difficult for a program to bring in a quarterback transfer with high-priced NIL demands in the late spring portal.
It not only is potentially disruptive for the current quarterback room, but it also could disrupt the locker room. Also, many schools have their quarterback salaries structured for 2025.
The move to cut ties with Iamaleava has unfolded as a classic tale of modern college football, as he arrived at the school with a historic contract and now leaves both Tennessee’s quarterback room and his own future shrouded in uncertainty.
The Volunteers, meanwhile, move on, with players emphasizing Saturday that the team is greater than any individual.
“I’ve been on some talented teams that haven’t done too well because there were a bunch of individuals on those teams,” senior tight end Miles Kitselman said. “I’m not just saying this to be saying it, but man, this team is different. … This team is a team. Like I said before, there’s no one else I’d rather go to war with and letting these guys know that we’re good with whoever we’ve got back there at quarterback. We’ve got some dogs here, these two guys [Merklinger and MacIntyre].
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State‘s national championship football team will have some extra jewelry to show off on its visit to the White House on Monday.
The Buckeyes received three rings between the first and second quarter of Saturday’s spring game at Ohio Stadium.
“It’s a surreal moment. I love this place,” said defensive lineman Jack Sawyer, one of the team captains.
Players and coaches from the 2024 championship team received a ring for making the College Football Playoff, one from the CFP for winning it, and a championship ring from Ohio State.
Ohio State’s seniors — many of whom are preparing for the NFL draft in less than two weeks — showed off their rings during a ceremony at the 50-yard line.
“They’re champions. So yeah, it puts a smile on your face when you see it,” coach Ryan Day said after the spring game.
The top of the national championship ring opens and shows the scores of Ohio State’s four CFP games, with the 34-23 victory over Notre Dame at the top. Enclosed inside the ring are pieces of the confetti that dropped at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after Ohio State won the game. The confetti is floating over a replica of the field.
All three rings also have Day’s mantra from the season of “Leave no doubt.” On the inside of the rings is a cross, signifying the team’s message and relying on its faith during the season.
“It makes it feel real. Been a long time coming for these rings but a combination of a lot of hard work, sacrifice and love when I see them,” quarterback Will Howard said.
Day originally planned not to have a spring game, considering the Buckeyes were only two months removed from playing 16 games. He originally planned on having an open practice with limited game action, but with the opener being against Texas on Aug. 30, Day reversed course.
“I’m glad we did the spring game. I wish we could have stayed out there for another four hours and get these reps and get these guys some work,” Day said. “We know who our first opponent is, so we know we have to hit the ground running. There isn’t much margin for error.”