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The oil and gas industry is banking on carbon capture as its “fix” for climate change. The IEA’s new report dispels that idea and offers real solutions.

The oil and gas sector currently accounts for just 1% of clean energy investment globally. A special report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) released ahead of the COP28 climate summit explores how the fossil fuel industry “can take a more responsible approach and contribute positively to the new energy economy.”

In other words, the fossil fuel industry needs to get on the renewables bandwagon now, and not with large-scale carbon capture. The IEA provides a roadmap in its new report, “The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions.”

Global demand for both oil and gas is set to peak by 2030, if not by 2025. If governments deliver in full on their national energy and climate pledges, demand will fall 45% below today’s level by 2050. In a pathway to reaching net zero emissions by mid-century, which is necessary to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C within reach, oil and gas use will decline by more than 75% by 2050.

Or, to spell it out in monetary terms, the report’s analysis finds that the current valuation of private oil and gas companies could fall by 25% from $6 trillion today if all national energy and climate goals are reached, and by up to 60% if the world gets on track to limit global warming to 1.5C.

The status quo is impossible

Every oil and gas company’s transition strategy can and should include a plan to reduce emissions from its own operations, asserts the report – yet companies with targets to reduce their emissions account for less than 50% of global oil and gas output.

The IEA also points out that carbon capture can’t be used as a linchpin by the fossil fuel industry to maintain the status quo. If oil and natural gas consumption were to evolve as projected under today’s policy settings, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5C would require an “entirely inconceivable” 32 billion tonnes of carbon captured for utilization or storage by 2050, including 23 billion tonnes via direct air capture.

The amount of electricity needed to power these technologies would be greater than the entire world’s electricity demand today.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said:

With the world suffering the impacts of a worsening climate crisis, continuing with business as usual is neither socially nor environmentally responsible.

The [oil and gas] industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution.

How to be part of the solution

The report finds that the oil and gas sector is well placed to scale up some crucial technologies for transitions to clean energy, such as offshore wind and geothermal energy. It’s going to have to change tack in many other aspects of its business, too. It needs to increase investment in EV charging facilities – turn the gas stations into EV stations. The sector can also move further into the plastics recycling industry as global bans on plastic continue to grow.

Further, the production, transport, and processing of oil and gas results in nearly 15% of global energy-related emissions – equal to the US’s entire energy-related emissions. The fossil fuel industry’s emissions must decline by 60% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5C by 2050. The emissions intensity of oil and gas producers with the highest emissions is currently five to 10 times above those with the lowest, showing the vast potential for improvements. So it needs to boost efficiency and electrify its facilities across the sector.

Reducing emissions from methane, which accounts for half of the total emissions from oil and gas operations, would also provide a big win, as methane reduction strategies are well-known and inexpensive.

The oil and gas industry invested around $20 billion in clean energy in 2022, or roughly 2.5% of its total capital spending. It can and must do a lot better. To align with the Paris Agreement, the IEA says, it must put 50% of its capital expenditures towards clean energy projects by 2030, on top of the investment required to reduce emissions from its operations.

Not only is it imperative that the fossil fuel sector shifts gears to limit global warming – it’s also good business.

Photo: “Coal power plant” by eutrophication&hypoxia is licensed under CC BY 2.0.


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Tesla Robotaxi spotted without a safety driver in Austin; Musk confirms testing begins

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Tesla Robotaxi spotted without a safety driver in Austin; Musk confirms testing begins

It’s finally happening. After years of promises, missed timelines dating back to the “Autonomy Day” in 2019, and endless iterations of “Full Self-Driving” (FSD), a Tesla vehicle has been spotted driving on public roads in Austin without anyone in the driver’s seat or a safety monitor in the passenger seat.

Elon Musk has confirmed that Robotaxi testing has officially commenced. This is undeniably a step forward for the company’s autonomy ambitions.

But it is also a terrifying leap of faith, given the complete lack of safety data proving the system is ready for this.

The sighting, captured over the weekend by locals in Austin, shows what appears to be a specially outfitted Model Y, presumably a testbed for the upcoming dedicated Robotaxi platform, navigating city streets. The steering wheel is turning, the car is moving, and the driver’s seat and front passenger seat are empty:

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Following the online buzz surrounding the sighting, Elon Musk took to X to confirm the obvious:

“Testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”

In isolation, this is exciting news. It suggests Tesla has reached an internal confidence level in their latest FSD builds for Robotaxi (not in consumer vehicles) where they feel comfortable pulling the human monitor.

It’s the tangible progress toward the driverless future many Tesla owners bought into years ago.

However, there’s still a lot of room for concerns.

Tesla has, to date, never released comprehensive, verifiable data proving that its FSD system is safer than a human driver. We get anecdotal evidence, curated video clips, and high-level statistics about “miles driven,” but not the granular disengagement data that competitors like Waymo provide to regulators and the public.

In fact, the data we do have, based on incident reports submitted to the NHTSA under their Standing General Order regarding ADS and ADAS systems, paints a worrying picture.

The data pointed to Tesla’s Robotaxi pilot in Austin having a crash every ~62,000 miles, significantly higher than the human average, despite a safety monitor inside the car that should have prevented further crashes.

CEO Elon Musk said last week that he expects Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin will be without a safety monitor within three weeks.

Electrek’s Take

Think about that for a second. The current fleet requires human intervention to avoid crashes. We know this. If human interventions are currently preventing accidents, common sense dictates that removing the human without a massive, documented improvement in the system’s base capability will lead to more incidents.

Tesla seems to be skipping the “prove it’s safe” phase and jumping straight to the “deploy it” phase.

I want Tesla to succeed here. A functional, scalable Robotaxi network would be a civilization-level improvement in transport. Seeing a driverless Tesla on public roads might feel like a visceral milestone, proof that the technology is advancing.

But “advancing” is not the same as “safe.”

I have serious concerns about the fact that Tesla has consistently avoided releasing verifiable, valuable data on the safety of FSD or its Robotaxi pilot program.

We have to try ourselves to match Tesla’s sparse release of Robotaxi mileage to the limited crash data reported to NHTSA. And that doesn’t look very good for Tesla.

So far, and even with this sighting, the Robotaxi program in Austin seems more of a marketing effort than the true first step toward scaling a driverless ride-hailing service. It looks like an effort to manufacture a win while Waymo rapidly scales its commercial driverless system.

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BHP and Rio Tinto to put MASSIVE 240-ton electric haul trucks to the test

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BHP and Rio Tinto to put MASSIVE 240-ton electric haul trucks to the test

The Cat 793 XE Early Learner battery-electric haul trucks deliver all the performance of its diesel-powered siblings without the noise, vibrations, and harmful emissions – and now, they’re being put to the test at BHP’s iron ore mine in Australia.

Part of a collaborative effort between BHP and Rio Tinto to help decarbonize BHP’s Jimblebar iron ore mine in the Pilbara, these 240-ton Cat 793 XE Early Learner electric haul trucks represent a major step toward a more sustainable future in mining, designed to deliver zero exhaust emissions while maintaining productivity and performance.

“Powering up our first battery-electric haul trucks in the Pilbara is an important step forward on the mining industry’s road to decarbonization,” says BHP Western Australia Iron Ore Asset president, Tim Day. “Replacing diesel isn’t just about changing energy sources, it’s about reimagining how we operate and creating the technologies, infrastructure, and supply chains to transform mining operations. These trials will help us understand how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together: the battery technologies, generation and charging infrastructure, power management, as well as the supply chains to potentially deliver this at scale.”

Like the two trucks deployed at Newmont’s Cripple Creek and Victor mine in Teller County, CO last year, this phase of Caterpillar’s Early Learner program will see the company attempt to integrate multiple electrified trucks at a single site with remote operators, validating the integration of a battery electric fleet with CAT’s existing autonomous and fleet management systems.

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Decarbonisation of Pilbara iron ore operations will rely on technology advancements and breakthroughs in research and development, which is why BHP and Rio Tinto are working closely with Caterpillar to accelerate their fleets’ transition to electric power.

That, and the fact that they’re watching global mining giants Fortescue slash hundreds of millions of dollars from their operating costs by switching to electric, and (presumably) want to get in on that action sooner than later.

Despite the urgency, however, they need to get it right or risk huge disruptions that will eat up any projected efficiency gains. “A significant shift like this demands a strong commitment to research and development, coupled with collaboration across the industry,” adds Day. “This is going to take time to get right, which is why trials like this one with Rio Tinto and Caterpillar are so critical.”

Caterpillar 793 XE Early Learner


First Early Learner Cat 793 XE battery-electric truck arrives at Newmont Cripple Creek and Victor
793 XE Early Learner; via Caterpillar.

The big Caterpillar haul truck is powered by a 564 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery pack that sends electrons to a 480 kW (645 hp) electric motor that kicks out an undisclosed amount of torque – but which is more than capable of hauling 250 tons of truck and payload at the same 38 mph to speed as its 2,650 hp diesel-powered bretheren.

The best part: in the right conditions, a heavily-loaded haul truck can rely on regenerative braking to keep it topped off, enabling ’round-the-clock operation without the need to stop and charge – a trick diesel trucks absolutely cannot match.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Caterpillar, via Heavy Equipment Guide.


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Tales from the comments: Electrek readers share their real-world home solar results

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Tales from the comments: Electrek readers share their real-world home solar results

A few weeks ago, we talked about some real-world numbers shared by Redditors who added a rooftop solar system to their homes. Not to be outdone, Electrek readers took to the comments to share their own real-world solar numbers. Here are some of the best!

That original post, which you can read here, was inspired by a Reddit user going by DontBuyBitcoin who shared a screenshot on r/Solar indicating that their newly-installed ~11.5 kW system produced over 1,700 kWh of electricity in October. “Pretty surprised by the production of the system I got,” writes DontBuyBitcoin. “11.48KW. I cant wait to see what JUNE-AUGUST [2026] going to look like 😍 I wish SolarEdge will make their app better looking with more functionality.”

Other Redditors were quick to share in the enthusiasm, but our Electrek readers weren’t going to be outdone, and shared their own results in the comments section.

I’ve got a 49 panel, 16.5 kW system just outside Austin, TX, and while it’s expensive ($320/mo), I produce much more power than I use each month. But with 2 EVs, a hot tub, and air conditioning in a Texas summer, I’m not mad I have all this. On a current sunny day, I’m producing about 65 kWh. I top out around 107 kWh on a long but somehow not hot day.l in late spring or early fall (whatever that means in Texas).

DAVID CALL

Another reader, Craig Morrow, had a much smaller system at “just” 6.5 kW compared to David’s 16.5 kW deal, but still put up some highly respectable numbers.

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My 6.5 kw PV generates from 16 kwh/day (winter) to 38 kwh/day (late spring). Between the efficiency of my house and my consumption habits, my usage averages 5-6 kwh per day. Went all-in on passive and active solar when I built the house ten years ago, an investment which has long since paid for itself with no heating or utility bills, plus having battery storage means no worries about power outages when the grid goes down. A great feeling to be energy independent!

CRAIG MERROW

Craig had the top comment with twenty upvotes, but he wasn’t the only reader to see some big efficiency gains with home solar. Several of you posted about the cost of your system, and when you’d begin to see an ROI with the savings you were seeing.

My ROI on a $42k system ($30k with the IRA tax credit) was calculated to be 15 years assuming a 4% yearly rate increase. Without the tax credit it would likely be 20+ years. It makes no sense financially. Interestingly, Europeans pay a lot less for similar size systems. Why is that?

BETTERFUTURE

Another commenter, Leonard Bates, was also seeing great returns – but took things a step further by doing some extra math to compare the cost of fueling up his car with gas vs. topping it off with electrons generated by his home solar system.

It is hard for the average Joe to understand electricity production numbers, so I have reduced our experience into dollars. We have a 8.8 kWh rooftop system and two EVs that (other than a few vacation trips a year) are charged at home. We are retired, so we can charge during the day. Bottom line, we saved over $4,000 by not buying gasoline last year (drove ~41,000 miles). Electric bills, with the load of the EVs, is basically a breakeven. The system cost us about $22,000, so a breakeven on the system of about six years and then free electricity for another 20, until the panels need to be replace. Plus we are “energy independent” for our cars. If there is turmoil in the Middle East, it doesn’t affect our pocket books.

LEONARD BATES

Leonard’s math reminds me of landscaper Colin Ash, who has been operating Ash Landscaping for over 30 years and recently traded his diesel excavator in for an electric JCB mini excavator he powers exclusively with solar panels mounted on his carport. “I’m a long-time electric vehicle driver and run my cars on solar energy generated from solar panels on the roof of the car port at my home,” explains Ash. “Adding the new JCB 8008E CTS was a perfect next step and I can plug it in next to the car and charge both overnight.”

So, Ash is happy. It seems like you guys are pretty happy, too – even without the home solar tax credit that a lot of you didn’t even know existed in the first place. Here’s hoping a lot more people decide to share their results with home solar, too.

Or, as one of our commenters put it:

If more homeowners share data like this, it’ll help others make informed decisions rather than relying just on sales projections.

ETECH BUY

Original content from Electrek.


If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them. 

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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