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Net migration hit a record-breaking 745,000 in 2022, according to revised figures from the Office for National Statistics, as its latest numbers showed 672,000 people came to the UK in the 12 months to June 2023.

In its last figures released in May, the ONS said the number for last year was 606,000 – then deemed a record high.

But looking at the numbers again, the organisation now says the actual figure was almost 140,000 higher than first thought, making it an even more unparalleled statistic.

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The latest numbers released on Wednesday showed net migration had risen when compared to the 12-month figure up to June 2022, which was 607,000, even though it was lower than the surprise annual stat for last year.

However, the ONS said while today’s number represented a drop from that unparalleled number, it was “too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend”, even though it did indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.

Net migration is calculated by looking at the number of people arriving in the UK when both immigration (people coming to the UK) and emigration (people leaving the UK) are taken into account.

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Tory backbenchers have already begun to hit out at the numbers, with former minister Simon Clarke saying it was “unsustainable both economically and socially” to have legal migration so high.

Another Conservative MP, Jonathan Gullis, called the figures “completely unacceptable to the majority of the British people”, and called for “drastic action”.

It comes as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure from the right of his party to reduce net migration in light of the 2019 Tory manifesto, which promised to bring the “overall number down”.

Home Secretary James Cleverly insisted the government remained “completely committed to reducing levels of legal migration, while also “focusing relentlessly” on tackling illegal migration.

He said ministers were “working across government on further measures to prevent exploitation and manipulation of our visa system, including clamping down on those that take advantage of the flexibility of the immigration system”.

But Labour’s shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, said today’s statistics showed “the scale of utter Tory failure on immigration, asylum, and the economy”.

Expect clamour from Tory right as Sunak seeks to strike delicate balance

It’s more bad news for the government on migration.

There are lots of headline figures coming out of the ONS figures today, but the most important one is that net migration to the UK in the year to December 2022 has been revised up to 745,000.

That is a huge number, both higher than previously thought and a new record.

In the 2019 manifesto, the Conservatives pledged to “bring overall numbers down”, with Boris Johnson talking about 250,000.

Rishi Sunak has tried to move away from specific targets, but he has put immigration, in particular illegal migration, at the heart of his pitch to the country.

Whatever complexities behind rising figures, expect a clamour from the right of the Conservative Party.

I’m told there could be an intervention from former home secretary Suella Braverman who, we understand, along with immigration minister Robert Jenrick, had previously pushed for an overall cap to net migration when she was in office.

We expect we could hear more from the Home Office about measures to bring down net migration as early as next week.

I understand this could include a crackdown on abuses in the visa system, increasing salary thresholds, changes to the rules on bringing families over on working visas and looking again at the shortage occupation scheme.

The PM knows, however, there is a delicate balance to be struck when it comes to economic concerns over workforce shortages.

The current home secretary appears to be keeping a low profile for now, but expect more on net migration over the coming weeks.

James Cleverly knows immigration matters to many voters and to his party.

In 2010, then prime minister David Cameron – now Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron – pledged to bring net migration down to the “tens of thousands”, though successive Tory governments have sought to move away from exact targets.

According to the ONS, most people arriving in the UK in the year to June 2023 were non-EU nationals – a total of 968,000 – followed by 129,000 EU citizens and 84,000 British people.

But both EU nationals and Britons were leaving the country in greater numbers, with 10,000 more EU nationals leaving than arriving and 86,000 more British nationals leaving than arriving – while the net figure for non-EU people was 768,000 more arriving than leaving.

Work was the biggest reason people from outside the EU migrated to the UK – a net figure of 278,000 and the first time employment was the most popular reason – followed by a net figure of 263,000 coming for study.

The recent rise in work visas was mainly driven by people taking jobs in the health and care sectors.

But when it came to those studying, the ONS’s Jay Lindop said the number was rising as “we’re not only seeing more students arrive, but we can also see they’re staying for longer”.

They also said more dependants of people with work and study visas had come to the UK too.

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Meanwhile, the number of people granted asylum to the UK for the year has remained relatively stable, as while it hit 88,000, compared with 73,000 in year to June 2022, ongoing COVID restrictions in that period had an impact.

The ONS said migration to the UK had been “relatively stable” before the COVID pandemic, but “patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then”.

The statistics experts said net migration had “increased sharply” since 2021 due to a rise in immigration from non-EU countries – including people coming by humanitarian routes from Ukraine and Hong Kong – as well as an increase in non-EU students and workers.

Government wants to bring migration down

The government has insisted it remains committed to reducing migration, and has already introduced measures to reduce the figure, including stopping international students who come to the UK from bringing family with them except under specific circumstances.

The New Conservatives group on the Tory right has called for ministers to close temporary visa schemes for care workers and to cap the number of refugees resettling in the UK at 20,000, in a bid to reduce net migration to 226,000 by the time of the election.

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that Mr Sunak’s policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda – a key part of his plan to stop small boats crossing the Channel – was unlawful.

The Rwanda policy would see anyone arriving in the UK by unauthorised means, such as by Channel crossings, deported to the African country to claim asylum there and not the UK.

But in its landmark ruling last Wednesday, the Supreme Court ruled that those sent to Rwanda would be at “real risk” of being sent back to their country of origin regardless of whether their asylum claim was justified or not – something that would breach international human rights laws.

In the aftermath of the ruling, Mr Sunak doubled down on the policy, telling MPs he was prepared to “change laws and revisit… international relationships” if they were “frustrating” his plans.

However, he also acknowledged that even if domestic laws were changed, the government could still face legal challenges from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and vowed: “I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights.”

The stalemate over Rwanda has bolstered calls from some in the Tory party for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR altogether after an injunction last June stopped the first scheduled flights from taking off.

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US, UK joint task force to explore crypto regulatory collaboration

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US, UK joint task force to explore crypto regulatory collaboration

US, UK joint task force to explore crypto regulatory collaboration

The Transatlantic Taskforce for Markets of the Future will focus on exploring crypto laws and regulations between the two countries.

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Peso in freefall: US lifeline to Argentina met with Bitcoiners’ doubt

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Peso in freefall: US lifeline to Argentina met with Bitcoiners’ doubt

Peso in freefall: US lifeline to Argentina met with Bitcoiners’ doubt

US steps in with a lifeline as Argentina battles peso turmoil, investor flight and President Javier Milei’s waning credibility. Crypto adoption surges.

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Labour and the Lib Dems could take lessons from how Farage ‘hogs the headlines’

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Labour and the Lib Dems could take lessons from how Farage 'hogs the headlines'

This is the story of two announcements – and the bigger lessons they tell us about the state of our politics.

First, there was a policy announcement by the Liberal Democrats as they gathered in Bournemouth for their annual conference.

Some Lib Dems were already aggrieved they do not get coverage commensurate with their parliamentary strength, given they have 72 MPs. But there is no one outlet or platform choosing to downplay their content – it’s worth analysing why their work does not travel further and wider.

The party’s main overnight policy call was for health warnings on social media apps for under-18s. The reason this was unlikely to garner a huge amount of attention is because it broadly falls in line with existing mainstream political consensus.

Politically, it was a safe thing to call for, tying gently the party’s anti-big tech and by extension anti-Trump agenda, but it was such safe territory that The Times reported this morning that ministerial action in the same area is coming soon.

Perhaps more importantly, the idea of mandatory warnings on social media sites used by teens feels like small beer in the age of massive fiscal and migration challenges. The party conference is its big moment to convince the public it’s about more than stunts and it can pose a coherent alternative: do its announcements rise to such a big moment?

Even more depressing for activists in Bournemouth is that the Liberal Democrat announcement is being eclipsed by Nigel Farage’s immigration statement. This is rightly getting more coverage – although also rightly, much of it focuses on whether this latest plan can possibly work, whether they’ve thought it through and whether their cost estimate is credible (probably not).

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Ed Davey participates in a flower-arranging workshop during his visit to Bournemouth Lower Gardens. Pic: PA
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Ed Davey participates in a flower-arranging workshop during his visit to Bournemouth Lower Gardens. Pic: PA

Even typing these words will draw a backlash from the parts of the political spectrum who resent the scale of the coverage a party with five MPs can muster. But just as the Lib Dems might draw lessons from their own failure to get noticed, Labour could do worse than to take note of why Reform leader Mr Farage is again hogging the headlines today.

Reform UK is proposing two things: that it will end Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) as we know it – that’s the right to settle in the UK, with access to benefits, after five years in the country. Within 100 days of entering office, Mr Farage says people would have to apply for five-year visas, qualifying only if they meet a higher salary threshold – closer to £60,000, from just over £40,000.

There are questions about the practical workings of the policy – a vastly bureaucratic and potentially destabilising plan to assess old IRL claims seems at odds with their plans to slash the size of the state. Some rival politicians would query the ethical stance of their latest intervention.

And Labour is loudly saying that Reform’s claim that UK benefits will be restricted to UK citizens will generate savings in the hundreds of billions is based on thinktank research that has since been withdrawn. But that is secondary.

The bigger thing Reform UK has done today is identify and loudly highlight an issue the Labour Party agrees with but does not dare make a big deal of. This allows Reform UK once again to set the terms of the debate in a sensitive area.

Underlying the Reform UK policy is a simple set of figures: That the result of the huge migration surge triggered by Boris Johnson and overseen through the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak premierships, means those eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain, five years after their arrival, is about to spike. This poses profound and complex questions for policymakers.

Sir Keir Starmer's Labour government had pledged to improve relations with Ireland. Pic: PA
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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government had pledged to improve relations with Ireland. Pic: PA

According to the government, last year 172,800 got Indefinite Leave to Remain. From next year there are estimates – not challenged this morning by the government when I checked – that about 270,000 migrants will become eligible to apply to live in the UK permanently. Then, up to 416,000 people will qualify in 2027, and 628,000 in 2028. These are huge numbers.

And here’s the key thing. While in public Labour have been trying to highlight aspects of this announcement that they say have “fallen apart”, privately they acknowledge that this is a problem and they too will come up with solutions in this area – but cannot yet say what.

Labour have already said they will increase the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain from 5 to 10 years, but it is unclear what will happen to those for whom the clock is already ticking – so, those in this coming wave. More on that is expected soon, but this is uncooked policy and the government is now racing to provide an answer.

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We seem to have politics stuck on repeat. Mr Farage has yet again put up in lights something that Labour privately concede is an issue but as yet have no answer in public. New home secretary Shabana Mahmood knows she has to show she can be quicker off the mark and more punchy than her predecessor – her rival has been first off the mark in this area, however.

But Mr Farage is also tackling the Tories too, punching the bruise by labelling the surge in migration post-2021 as the “Boris-wave”. Understandably, the Tories themselves have been shy to dwell on this. But they have also tried to make it harder for people who arrived post-2021 to get ILR and have vowed to allow those on benefits to be able to apply. But they would draw the line on retrospective ILR claims, which could turn into one of the big dividing lines at the next election. And they are not shouting about a plan which effectively criticises the migration record of the last government.

Mr Farage has come up with a deeply controversial policy. Retrospectively removing people who thought they could live indefinitely in the UK is a major shift in the compact the UK had with migrants already here. But he managed to put his rivals in a tangle this morning.

The two biggest parties give the impression they still have little confidence when dealing with migration. Until they do, can they really take on Mr Farage?

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