Net migration into UK in 2022 revised up to record-breaking figure of 745,000

Published

12 months ago

November 23, 2023

admin

Net migration hit a record-breaking 745,000 in 2022, according to revised figures from the Office for National Statistics, as its latest numbers showed 672,000 people came to the UK in the 12 months to June 2023.

In its last figures released in May, the ONS said the number for last year was 606,000 – then deemed a record high.

But looking at the numbers again, the organisation now says the actual figure was almost 140,000 higher than first thought, making it an even more unparalleled statistic.

Politics live: Clear choice at next election, says Hunt

The latest numbers released on Wednesday showed net migration had risen when compared to the 12-month figure up to June 2022, which was 607,000, even though it was lower than the surprise annual stat for last year.

However, the ONS said while today’s number represented a drop from that unparalleled number, it was “too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend”, even though it did indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.

Net migration is calculated by looking at the number of people arriving in the UK when both immigration (people coming to the UK) and emigration (people leaving the UK) are taken into account.

From July 2019, a few months before the last general election, to June 2023, total estimated UK net migration stood at 1,611,000.

That total reflects net arrivals of 1,829,000 people from outside the EU, and net departures of 81,000 EU citizens and 137,000 British citizens.

Tory backbenchers have already begun to hit out at the numbers, with former minister Simon Clarke saying it was “unsustainable both economically and socially” to have legal migration so high.

Another Conservative MP, Jonathan Gullis, called the figures “completely unacceptable to the majority of the British people”, and called for “drastic action”.

It comes as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure from the right of his party to reduce net migration in light of the 2019 Tory manifesto, which promised to bring the “overall number down”.

Home Secretary James Cleverly insisted the government remained “completely committed to reducing levels of legal migration, while also “focusing relentlessly” on tackling illegal migration.

He said ministers were “working across government on further measures to prevent exploitation and manipulation of our visa system, including clamping down on those that take advantage of the flexibility of the immigration system”.

But Labour’s shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, said today’s statistics showed “the scale of utter Tory failure on immigration, asylum, and the economy”.

Expect clamour from Tory right as Sunak seeks to strike delicate balance

It’s more bad news for the government on migration.

There are lots of headline figures coming out of the ONS figures today, but the most important one is that net migration to the UK in the year to December 2022 has been revised up to 745,000.

That is a huge number, both higher than previously thought and a new record.

In the 2019 manifesto, the Conservatives pledged to “bring overall numbers down”, with Boris Johnson talking about 250,000.

Rishi Sunak has tried to move away from specific targets, but he has put immigration, in particular illegal migration, at the heart of his pitch to the country.

Whatever complexities behind rising figures, expect a clamour from the right of the Conservative Party.

I’m told there could be an intervention from former home secretary Suella Braverman who, we understand, along with immigration minister Robert Jenrick, had previously pushed for an overall cap to net migration when she was in office.

We expect we could hear more from the Home Office about measures to bring down net migration as early as next week.

I understand this could include a crackdown on abuses in the visa system, increasing salary thresholds, changes to the rules on bringing families over on working visas and looking again at the shortage occupation scheme.

The PM knows, however, there is a delicate balance to be struck when it comes to economic concerns over workforce shortages.

The current home secretary appears to be keeping a low profile for now, but expect more on net migration over the coming weeks.

James Cleverly knows immigration matters to many voters and to his party.

In 2010, then prime minister David Cameron – now Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron – pledged to bring net migration down to the “tens of thousands”, though successive Tory governments have sought to move away from exact targets.

According to the ONS, most people arriving in the UK in the year to June 2023 were non-EU nationals – a total of 968,000 – followed by 129,000 EU citizens and 84,000 British people.

But both EU nationals and Britons were leaving the country in greater numbers, with 10,000 more EU nationals leaving than arriving and 86,000 more British nationals leaving than arriving – while the net figure for non-EU people was 768,000 more arriving than leaving.

Work was the biggest reason people from outside the EU migrated to the UK – a net figure of 278,000 and the first time employment was the most popular reason – followed by a net figure of 263,000 coming for study.

The recent rise in work visas was mainly driven by people taking jobs in the health and care sectors.

But when it came to those studying, the ONS’s Jay Lindop said the number was rising as “we’re not only seeing more students arrive, but we can also see they’re staying for longer”.

They also said more dependants of people with work and study visas had come to the UK too.

Meanwhile, the number of people granted asylum to the UK for the year has remained relatively stable, as while it hit 88,000, compared with 73,000 in year to June 2022, ongoing COVID restrictions in that period had an impact.

The ONS said migration to the UK had been “relatively stable” before the COVID pandemic, but “patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then”.

The statistics experts said net migration had “increased sharply” since 2021 due to a rise in immigration from non-EU countries – including people coming by humanitarian routes from Ukraine and Hong Kong – as well as an increase in non-EU students and workers.

Government wants to bring migration down

The government has insisted it remains committed to reducing migration, and has already introduced measures to reduce the figure, including stopping international students who come to the UK from bringing family with them except under specific circumstances.

The New Conservatives group on the Tory right has called for ministers to close temporary visa schemes for care workers and to cap the number of refugees resettling in the UK at 20,000, in a bid to reduce net migration to 226,000 by the time of the election.

In a statement released after the ONS publication, the group said: “We cannot blame exceptional circumstances. This is a consistent trend. It has been caused directly by the policy decisions of this government. And it has gone on for far too long.

“The word ‘existential’ has been used a lot in recent days, but this really is ‘do or die’ for our party. Each of us made a promise to the electorate. We don’t believe that such promises can be ignored.”

A Number 10 spokesperson said the government would “leave no stone unturned” in bringing down the figure, adding: “Net migration remains far too high. That’s why we are taking action to bring it down. That is what the British public expect.”

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that Mr Sunak’s policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda – a key part of his plan to stop small boats crossing the Channel – was unlawful.

The Rwanda policy would see anyone arriving in the UK by unauthorised means, such as by Channel crossings, deported to the African country to claim asylum there and not the UK.

But in its landmark ruling last Wednesday, the Supreme Court ruled that those sent to Rwanda would be at “real risk” of being sent back to their country of origin regardless of whether their asylum claim was justified or not – something that would breach international human rights laws.

In the aftermath of the ruling, Mr Sunak doubled down on the policy, telling MPs he was prepared to “change laws and revisit… international relationships” if they were “frustrating” his plans.

However, he also acknowledged that even if domestic laws were changed, the government could still face legal challenges from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and vowed: “I will not allow a foreign court to block these flights.”

The stalemate over Rwanda has bolstered calls from some in the Tory party for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR altogether after an injunction last June stopped the first scheduled flights from taking off.

UK

Woman’s body found in car boot in east London – as murder investigation launched by two police forces

Published

14 hours ago

November 16, 2024

admin

Woman's body found in car boot in east London - as murder investigation launched by two police forces

A murder investigation has been launched after a woman’s body was found in the boot of a car in east London.

Detectives said a murder inquiry has been launched into the “suspicious” discovery in Ilford.

The woman, who has not been named but is from Corby in Northamptonshire, may have been the victim of a “targeted incident”, police say.

“Fast track” enquiries were made after the force was contacted by a member of the public with concerns about the welfare of the woman.

This led to the discovery of a body inside a car boot.

Northamptonshire Police said: “The investigation is ongoing and there will be continued police activity over the weekend in various locations, including Corby and Ilford.

“Although we believe that this was a targeted incident and there is no wider risk to members of the public, extra patrols will be taking place in Corby in the coming days for reassurance purposes.”

Detectives from the East Midlands Special Operations Unit major crime team and the Metropolitan Police are working on the case, to try and establish the circumstances that led to the woman’s death.

UK

Police investigating criminal offence after Daily Telegraph columnist ‘dumbfounded’ by social media post probe

Published

14 hours ago

November 16, 2024

admin

Police investigating criminal offence after Daily Telegraph columnist 'dumbfounded' by social media post probe

Essex Police say they are investigating an alleged criminal offence of inciting racial hatred, after Daily Telegraph columnist Allison Pearson said she was “dumbfounded and upset” when officers knocked on her door last Sunday.

Ms Pearson revealed she was told she was being investigated over a year-old deleted post online.

She said she wasn’t informed which post had been reported, but suggested it could have been related to the 7 October attacks in Israel or pro-Palestine marches.

She claimed the officers told her she was being investigated for a NCHI (a none crime hate incident) an incident involving an act which is perceived to be motivated by hostility or prejudice towards persons with a particular characteristic, but is not illegal.

NCHI reports have long been controversial, with many citing free speech concerns, and Ms Pearson’s account of the police visit has led to widespread support from Conservatives and online commentators, including Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

But an Essex Police spokesperson has told Sky News its investigation was never for an NCHI, and that the matter was always being treated as an investigation into an alleged criminal offence of inciting racial hatred.

Speaking on her Planet Normal podcast on Wednesday, Ms Pearson said she found the visit “chilling”.

“I was dumbfounded, upset, it’s not very nice,” she said. “I was in my dressing gown on the step of the house, these two coppers were there just outside the door.

“There were people gathering for the Remembrance Day parade so there were people watching from the other side of the road.

“Whatever I did or didn’t tweet, if somebody found it offensive, that to me is still not a reason for two policemen to come to my house on a Sunday morning.

“You know, they don’t do that for burglars, do they? We know policing is under-resourced and they are unable to attend often quite serious crimes.

“This was the most extraordinary overreach and state intrusion into my private life and I don’t think I did anything wrong and I think their response was outrageous.”

In a statement, Essex Police said: “Officers attended an address in Essex and invited a woman to come to a voluntary interview.

“They said it related to an investigation into an alleged offence of inciting racial hatred, linked to a post on social media.

“For clarity: a complaint of a possible criminal offence was made to the police and this is why we called; to arrange an interview.

“Everyone was polite and professional throughout the brief conversation.”

They said an officer told Ms Pearson: “It’s gone down as an incident or offence of potentially inciting racial hatred online. That would be the offence.”

Essex Police say they have complained to the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) over what they call “false reporting” regarding the ongoing investigation.

What is a non-crime hate incident?

Non-crime hate incidents (NCHIs) are defined by the government as an incident involving an act which is perceived to be motivated by hostility or prejudice towards persons with a particular characteristic.

Those characteristics can include race, religion, disability, sexual orientation and transgender identity.

These incidents do not amount to a criminal offence, but they are reported to police and recorded in case they escalate into more serious harm or indicate heightened community tensions.

It can be reported to police by anyone, whether they are directly affected by the alleged NCHI or not.

Not all incidents reported to police are recorded as NCHIs.

They need to meet this threshold, according to the government: “A single distinct event or occurrence which disturbs an individual’s, group’s or community’s quality of life or causes them concern.”

Furthermore, the personal data of the person reported should only be included in the reports if the incident in question presents a “real risk of significant harm” to individuals or groups with a particular characteristic and/or a real risk that a future criminal offence may take place against them.

The origins of NCHI recordings stem from the murder of Stephen Lawrence in 1993, who was murdered by a gang of racist attackers in southeast London as he ran to catch a bus.

An inquiry into his death in 1999 called for the creation of “a comprehensive system of reporting and recording of all racist incidents and crimes”.

The first guidance on NCHI was published in 2005, but there have been updates over the years in response to scrutiny over protecting free speech.

The latest guidance was published in June 2023, when an updated code of practice set out a “common sense and proportionate approach that should be adopted by the police”.

The guidance, introduced under the Conservative government, clarified “that debate, humour, satire and personally-held views which are lawfully expressed are not, by themselves, grounds for the recording of an NCHI” and that an NCHI should not be recorded if police deem a report to be “trivial” or “irrational”.

In an interview with The Telegraph published yesterday, Kemi Badenoch said police visiting a journalist over a social media post was “absolutely wrong” and that “we need to look at the laws around non-crime hate incidents”.

“There has been a long-running problem with people not taking free speech seriously,” she said.

She challenged the prime minister to review the laws, saying: “Keir Starmer says he is someone who believes in these things. Now he needs to actually show that he does believe it. All we’ve seen from him is the opposite.”

Ms Badenoch added: “We need to stop this behaviour of people wasting police time on trivial incidents because they don’t like something, as if they’re in a nursery.

“It’s like children reporting each other. And I think that in certain cases, the police do it because they’re afraid that if they don’t do it, they will also be accused of not taking these issues seriously.”

Essex Police said the officers went to the address to invite Ms Pearson to attend a voluntary interview as part of their investigation, which was passed to them by another force.

“The report relates to a social media post which was subsequently removed,” the statement read.

“An investigation is now being carried out under Section 17 of the Public Order Act.”

Essex Police also said they made attempts to contact Ms Pearson before the visit.

Other prominent Conservative voices such as Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Chris Philp have also leapt to Ms Pearson’s defence online, as has X owner Elon Musk, who quoted a post about the incident and said: “This needs to stop.”

Police commentator Graham Wettone told Sky News the police are “duty bound to investigate allegations of crime”.

“They’ve had an allegation of crime made there,” he said. “They will investigate it. If at the end of this they decide that no criminal offence has been committed – and we’re not at that stage yet – then it can still be recorded as a none crime hate incident.”

The police, he said, are duty bound to keep a record of none crime hate incidents.

“Parliament said they want the police to do this, to investigate and record incidents like this. So they are doing exactly what parliament and society asked them to do, and they are getting criticism for doing what people want.”

UK

Sir Keir Starmer vows to defend budget decisions ‘all day long’ as farmers slam ‘disrespectful’ PM

Published

14 hours ago

November 16, 2024

admin

Sir Keir Starmer vows to defend budget decisions 'all day long' as farmers slam 'disrespectful' PM

Sir Keir Starmer has said he will defend the decisions made in the budget “all day long” amid anger from farmers over inheritance tax changes.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced last month in her key speech that from April 2026, farms worth more than £1m will face an inheritance tax rate of 20%, rather than the standard 40% applied to other land and property.

The announcement has sparked anger among farmers who argue this will mean higher food prices, lower food production and having to sell off land to pay for the tax.

Sir Keir defended the budget as he gave his first speech as prime minister at the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales, where farmers have been holding a tractor protest outside.

Sir Keir admitted: “We’ve taken some extremely tough decisions on tax.”

He said: “I will defend facing up to the harsh light of fiscal reality. I will defend the tough decisions that were necessary to stabilise our economy.

“And I will defend protecting the payslips of working people, fixing the foundations of our economy, and investing in the future of Britain and the future of Wales. Finally, turning the page on austerity once and for all.”

He also said the budget allocation for Wales was a “record figure” – some £21bn for next year – an extra £1.7bn through the Barnett Formula, as he hailed a “path of change” with Labour governments in Wales and Westminster.

And he confirmed a £160m investment zone in Wrexham and Flintshire will be going live in 2025.

‘PM should have addressed the protesters’

Among the hundreds of farmers demonstrating was Gareth Wyn Jones, who told Sky News it was “disrespectful” that the prime minister did not mention farmers in his speech.

He said “so many people have come here to air their frustrations. He (Starmer) had an opportunity to address the crowd. Even if he was booed he should have been man enough to come out and talk to the people”.

He said farmers planned to deliver Sir Keir a letter which begins with “don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.

Mr Wyn Jones told Sky News the government was “destroying” an industry that was already struggling.

“They’re destroying an industry that’s already on its knees and struggling, absolutely struggling, mentally, emotionally and physically. We need government support not more hindrance so we can produce food to feed the nation.”

He said inheritance tax changes will result in farmers increasing the price of food: “The poorer people in society aren’t going to be able to afford good, healthy, nutritious British food, so we have to push this to government for them to understand that enough is enough, the farmers can’t take any more of what they’re throwing at us.”

Mr Wyn Jones disputed the government’s estimation that only 500 farming estates in the UK will be affected by the inheritance tax changes.

“Look, a lot of farmers in this country are in their 70s and 80s, they haven’t handed their farms down because that’s the way it’s always been, they’ve always known there was never going to be inheritance tax.”

On Friday, Sir Keir addressed farmers’ concerns, saying: “I know some farmers are anxious about the inheritance tax rules that we brought in two weeks ago.

“What I would say about that is, once you add the £1m for the farmland to the £1m that is exempt for your spouse, for most couples with a farm wanting to hand on to their children, it’s £3m before anybody pays a penny in inheritance tax.”

Ministers said the move will not affect small farms and is aimed at targeting wealthy landowners who buy up farmland to avoid paying inheritance tax.

But analysis this week said a typical family farm would have to put 159% of annual profits into paying the new inheritance tax every year for a decade and could have to sell 20% of their land.

The Country and Land Business Association (CLA), which represents owners of rural land, property and businesses in England and Wales, found a typical 200-acre farm owned by one person with an expected profit of £27,300 would face a £435,000 inheritance tax bill.

The plan says families can spread the inheritance tax payments over 10 years, but the CLA found this would require an average farm to allocate 159% of its profits each year for a decade.

To pay that, successors could be forced to sell 20% of their land, the analysis found.