A recent court filing suggests that Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s legal challenges are just beginning, despite pleading guilty to violating the United States Anti-Money Laundering requirements in a settlement with the Department of Justice.
Zhao is expected to be sentenced in February 2024. He is currently challenging the government’s efforts to prevent his return to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) while awaiting sentencing with his family. In a filing from Nov. 24, however, authorities indicated that he may face a harsher punishment than initially anticipated:
“The defense claims that Mr. Zhao faces merely a “brief” sentence and has no incentive to flee. The reality is that the top-end of the Guidelines range may be as high as 18 months, and the United States is free to argue for any sentence up to the statutory maximum of ten years.”
A potential lengthier sentence opposes legal experts’ consensus. According to an analysis from former Securities and Exchange Commission official John Reed Stark, Zhao would possibly receive a 12–18-month sentence at a minimum-security prison under the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines. Although his legal team is likely to ask for no jail time or an alternative sentence, combining prison time with home detention and probation.
Zhao’s relevance to the crypto industry may also influence his fate. Stark believes that if the “DOJ does not secure a sentence for CZ that deters future money laundering conduct in the cryptoverse (and elsewhere), then this “plea deal” could end up backfiring on DOJ.”
Screenshot: Government’s reply to motion for review Zhao’s travel restrictions. Source: Reuters.
For the DOJ, seeking longer jail time for Zhao may not be as easy as it seems. According to Stark’s analysis, the government officials would have to produce more substantial evidence implicating him in criminal activity. “Hopefully, DOJ has got something up their sleeve, or perhaps the Binance monitoring and other remedial requirements will reveal more egregious and chargeable crimes,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
Zhao was released under a $175 million bond that requires him to return to the U.S. 14 days before his sentencing date scheduled for Feb. 24, 2024. In his comments, Stark noted that Judge Richard A. Jones is expected to consider the government’s motion on Nov. 27, with the possibility of strengthening the bail requirements through additional bond conditions or delaying a decision.
Binance-CZ’s case is stirring controversy among legal and business experts. According to Omid Malekan, author and adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, the DOJ’s approach to the exchange differs significantly from what is seen in traditional finance.
“If [banks] they’d been held to the Binance Standard there’d be hundreds of managing directors in jail and less money for shareholder buybacks (or lobbying). But the bankers were smart enough to never question the game.”
On Nov. 21, Zhao reached a $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. government for allegedly allowing individuals engaged in illicit activities to transfer funds through the exchange. He stepped down as CEO as part of the settlement.
Despite the ongoing market meltdown on US trade tariffs, executives at major cryptocurrency firms Messari and Sygnum are bullish on institutional Bitcoin adoption later in 2025.
Speaking on a panel at Paris Blockchain Week on April 8, Messari CEO Eric Turner and Sygnum Bank co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said they expect a significant shift in the banking sector’s involvement with crypto in the second half of the year.
According to the executives, the global banking push into Bitcoin (BTC) services has great potential to happen in the second half of 2025 as regulators embrace crypto, including stablecoins and crypto services by banks.
“I think we’re probably looking at a muted Q2, but I’m really excited for Q3 and Q4,” Messari’s Turner said during the panel discussion moderated by Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, forecasting “really interesting” things coming to the crypto market in 2025.
“When you look at the potential of having market structure regulation in the US, stablecoin regulation, and just the fact that across the board, not just President Trump himself, but the SEC and all these regulatory industries are really embracing crypto,” Turner said.
Paris Blockchain Week’s panel with Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, Bancor co-founder Eyal Hertzog, Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger, Messari CEO Eric Turner, AWS fintech leader Alex Matsuo and Near chief operating officer Chris Donovan. Source: Cointelegraph
Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said international banks with US branches are also poised to enter the market once the legal landscape becomes clearer:
“I think it’s a matter of fact that US banks are preparing to be able to offer crypto custody and at least crypto spot trading services anytime soon.”
“I think by then I would agree with you, Eric,” he continued, projecting a continued phase of market uncertainty until the US establishes a clear regulatory framework.
With the establishment of clear crypto rules for banks in the US, there will be a rush for crypto services by large international banks that are incorporated outside of the US but have a US-based presence, Eichenberger said.
“Some of them may have had their strategic plans in their cupboard to offer crypto-related services, but have been afraid that at some point they will be gone after by any of the US regulatory authorities,” he said, adding:
“Now I think there’s no one to be afraid of anymore in terms of regulatory authorities worldwide. So I think many of the large international banks will launch this year.”
Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.
Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.
However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:
“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”
In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.
China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis
China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.
Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely
As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.
Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.
Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.
“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:
“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”
A Nigerian court has reportedly delayed the country’s tax evasion case against Binance until April 30 to give time for Nigeria’s tax authority to respond to a request from the crypto exchange.
Reuters reported on April 7 that a lawyer for Binance, Chukwuka Ikwuazom, asked a court the same day to invalidate an order allowing for court documents to be served to the company via email.
Binance doesn’t have an office in Nigeria and Ikwuazom claimed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) didn’t get court permission to serve court documents to Binance outside the country.
“On the whole the order for the substituted service as granted by the court on February 11, 2025 on Binance who is … registered under the laws of Cayman Islands and resident in Cayman Islands is improper and should be set aside,” he said.
FIRS sued Binance in February, claiming the exchange owed $2 billion in back taxes and should be made to pay $79.5 billion for damages to the local economy as its its operations allegedly destabilized the country’s currency, the naira, which Binance denies.
It also reportedly alleged that Binance is liable to pay corporate income tax in Nigeria, as it has a “significant economic presence” there, with FIRS requesting a court order for the exchange to pay income taxes for 2022 and 2023, plus a 10% annual penalty on unpaid amounts along with a nearly a 27% interest rate on the unpaid taxes.
Nigeria’s legal history with Binance
In February 2024, Nigeria arrested and detained Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla on tax fraud and money laundering charges. The country dropped the tax charges against both in June and the remaining charge against Gambaryan in October.
Tigran Gambaryan (right) was seen in a September video struggling to walk into a courtroom in the Nigerian capital of Abuja. Source: X
Anjarwalla managed to slip his guards and escape Nigerian custody to Kenya in March last year and is apparently still at large.
Gambaryan, a US citizen, returned home in October after reports suggested his health had deteriorated during his detainment with reported cases of pneumonia, malaria and a herniated spinal disc that may need surgery.
Binance stopped its naira currency deposits and withdrawals in March 2024, effectively leaving the Nigerian market.