There are six weeks left in the 2025 MLB season, and after it seemed as if some of baseball’s top teams were running away with their divisions early on, we’ve seen those leads shrink to, in some cases, zero.
In the National League West, we’ve seen the Dodgers’ commanding lead be erased entirely, as the Padres now lead their rivals by one game atop the division — and with a series between the two coming up this weekend.
The same has happened in the American League West, with the Astros overtaking the Mariners earlier in the season and building a cushion atop the division, only to see that disappear as Seattle has won eight of its last 10 games to be just one game back from Houston.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have built a comfortable lead in the NL Central — and atop the majors, with the best record in all of baseball — after overtaking the Cubs late last month thanks to a number of winning streaks, including the current 12-game one.
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 18 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 76-44
Previous ranking: 1
Sometimes there just aren’t enough words to describe how a team is doing what it is doing. It becomes less about talent — and, don’t get me wrong, Milwaukee is talented — and more about belief and confidence. The Brewers are riding that high right now, believing every time they step on the field, this is their game. But it still takes production to win, and during their latest win streak, Brice Turang and William Contreras have led them with big hit after big hit. Contreras has been playing top-level baseball over the past two weeks, hitting six home runs in the span of 12 games while Turang hit six in 11. Milwaukee looks unstoppable right now. — Rogers
Record: 69-51
Previous ranking: 2
Ranger Suarez has been dominant on the road this season but imploded against the Reds on Tuesday when he gave up 10 hits and six runs in 5⅓ innings. That game raised Philadelphia’s starting rotation ERA to over 4.00 since the All-Star break. It’s probably not much of a concern as the Phillies have more important days ahead of them, so getting Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo ready for the postseason should be No.1 on the team’s to-do list. A comfortable lead in the division will help that cause come September. — Rogers
Record: 70-51
Previous ranking: 6
As Shane Bieber finishes his minor league rehabilitation and prepares to join the Toronto rotation, manager John Schneider and his staff will have some choices. They could go to a six-man rotation, maybe temporarily, to give the team’s veteran starters a little extra rest in the last weeks of the season. Or they could shift someone to the bullpen. Lefty Eric Lauer has been a revelation for the Jays this year, posting a 3.36 ERA in 13 starts, but he has the most experience out of the ‘pen among the Toronto starters. — Olney
Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 4
Brock Stewart, the Dodgers’ big deadline addition to the bullpen, is dealing with shoulder inflammation and was placed on the injured list Tuesday, where he joined five other high-leverage relievers. Manager Dave Roberts is once again short on options to hold leads late, but his offense has also been too inconsistent to routinely obtain leads in the first place. And oftentimes when the lineup produces, that day’s starting pitcher does not. The Dodgers have been a sub-.500 team since the start of July and can’t do much right these days, which might make this a really bad time for them to host the surging Padres this weekend. — Gonzalez
Record: 70-52
Previous ranking: 5
As the Tigers try to hold off Cleveland down the stretch, they will have to defend first place head-to-head. Six of Detroit’s final 12 games in the regular season are against the Guardians — at home Sept. 16-18, and in Cleveland Sept. 23-25. But according to FanGraphs, only three teams — the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers — face a weaker schedule than the Tigers over the last quarter of the season. — Olney
Record: 67-54
Previous ranking: 11
The Mariners won their eighth consecutive game Tuesday night and moved into a first-place tie with Houston in the AL West — marking the first time since the start of June that they’ve held a share of the division lead. The Mariners, now a game back after Wednesday’s loss, have won nine of 11 since the front office made a multitude of win-now moves at the trade deadline and will spend these next six-plus weeks gunning for their first division title since 2001. They’ll get some additional help, too, with Bryce Miller rejoining the rotation soon and Victor Robles settling back atop the lineup shortly thereafter. The vibes in Seattle are on another level right now. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-51
Previous ranking: 3
Chicago might have to focus on a wild-card spot, as an offensive slump combined with the Brewers’ hot streak has tanked the Cubs’ percentages to win the division. The good news is the starting staff has kept them above water, ranking first in ERA since the All-Star break. But a power outage in the middle of the order is concerning. Kyle Tucker, who might still be feeling the aftereffects of a jammed finger suffered on June 1, has just a handful of extra-base hits since the calendar turned to July. The power lull has seemingly infected everyone in the lineup — outside of rookie Matt Shaw. — Rogers
Record: 69-52
Previous ranking: 8
Michael King made his long-awaited return to the Padres’ rotation Friday, and though it resulted in an ineffective, two-inning outing, the fact that he was there in the first place was a major development for a Padres team that seems to be rounding into the best version of itself for the season’s stretch run. The lineup — bolstered by the additions of Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin — once again looks deep. The bullpen, fortified by the addition of Mason Miller, is one of the game’s best. The rotation is as close to whole as it has been all year. And now the Padres are poised to take down the Dodgers in the NL West. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 10
The Astros find themselves in a tight division race with the surging Mariners and will have to try to fend Seattle off, at least in the near term, without their star closer, Josh Hader, who landed on the IL on Tuesday with what the team described as a shoulder strain. The Astros still don’t know the severity of the injury, but manager Joe Espada called it a “punch to the gut.” Hader converted his first 25 save chances this season and sports a 2.05 ERA, with 76 strikeouts in 52⅔ innings. Bryan Abreu can be a capable closer in the meantime, but Hader’s absence significantly weakens the entirety of the bullpen. — Gonzalez
Record: 66-56
Previous ranking: 9
It seems appropriate that Roman Anthony wears No. 19 for the Red Sox, since his immediate impact is similar to the work of another Red Sox player who wore No. 19: Fred Lynn, the 1975 Rookie of the Year and MVP. Anthony has a 135 OPS+ with an on-base percentage of .399 in 53 games, and, like Lynn in his rookie season, Anthony has quickly become a core piece of Boston’s offense. — Olney
Record: 64-55
Previous ranking: 7
A collective slump at the plate since late July has been maddening for New York, although Pete Alonso setting the franchise record for home runs was a recent bright spot. Maybe the Mets will look back at their 13-5 win over Atlanta on Tuesday — when Alonso set the mark — as a turning point.
Right now, you could throw a dart at their roster and you’ll probably hit a player who is struggling at the plate. That does actually include Alonso, who has an OBP under .250 since the All-Star break. Francisco Lindor might be the most frustrated of the group as he’s hitting .188 over his last 23 games. As he and Alonso go, so do the Mets. They’re too good to continue on the pace they were on before Tuesday. — Rogers
Record: 64-57
Previous ranking: 12
Some of New York’s trade deadline acquisitions started out their Yankees campaigns infamously, with that ugly game in Miami. But in the past eight days, reliever David Bednar has provided some stability for the bullpen, twice making five-out appearances while striking out 12 in seven innings over that span. Manager Aaron Boone has more to figure out about his bullpen, but he seems to have settled on a closer. — Olney
Record: 64-58
Previous ranking: 14
A starting staff that ranks fourth in the NL in ERA got a boost with the return of Hunter Greene from injury. Could that be the difference-maker Cincinnati needs to make a playoff push? It might be a moot point if the Reds don’t hit enough. Every few games, they show signs of being capable of a potent offense, but then they revert to lower-scoring days, as they did last week in losing three games while scoring a total of just three runs. Miguel Andujar came up big over the past seven days, compiling an OPS over 1.300. The Reds need more contributions like that. — Rogers
Record: 62-57
Previous ranking: 15
Cleveland has won 21 of its past 30 games, thriving through a period in which it lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a leave of absence related to a gambling investigation; traded Shane Bieber, who had been expected to join the Cleveland rotation down the stretch; and listened to offers for Steven Kwan. The Guardians’ improbable surge is reminiscent of that of the 2024 Tigers. — Olney
Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 13
The Rangers won their second consecutive game against the Yankees on Aug. 5, at which point they stood just a half-game back of a playoff spot. It seemed then as if the 2023 World Series champs — a team that has spent most of the time since searching for some consistent offense — were finally poised to make their move. Then Texas slipped once more, getting swept at home by the Phillies and totaling just seven runs over the course of a four-game losing streak. The Rangers are running out of time to showcase the consistent baseball they still believe they’re capable of. — Gonzalez
Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 19
Is this the real Jordan Walker? Has he finally arrived? OK, that might be over the top for a .233 hitter, but he has been on a nice run since the All-Star break, hitting around .300, though with just one home run. More recently, he had an 8-for-16 stretch that included back-to-back three-hit games. His development is part of the Cardinals’ big picture strategy for the season, which has been all about allowing their young players to succeed or fail without looking over their collective shoulders too much. Outside of going on the IL due to appendicitis, Walker has had that opportunity. Could 2026 finally be the year for the 23-year-old? Stay tuned. — Rogers
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants haven’t had a winning month since April. At this point, they’re clearly playing for next year. With that in mind, though, perhaps Rafael Devers, the mid-June acquisition that was supposed to catapult them to the top of the NL West, is finally starting to figure out Oracle Park and get back to who he is. After slashing just .230/.337/.368 in July, Devers is slashing .267/.389/.556 in his first 12 games of August. Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters Devers is “taking more balanced swings, a little more fluid,” a result, Melvin thinks, of no longer trying to do too much. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-61
Previous ranking: 18
On the day that Kansas City acquired Adam Frazier, one rival evaluator was confused by the move, citing Frazier’s struggles in Pittsburgh, where he hit .255 with a .318 OBP. But the Royals got Frazier in part because of his stabilizing influence in the clubhouse, and he has played well for Kansas City so far, hitting over .300 and helping to spur an offense that has been significantly better of late. In the first half of the season, the Royals ranked 29th of 30 teams in runs scored; since the All-Star break, they rank sixth. — Olney
Record: 59-63
Previous ranking: 17
Tampa Bay has an excellent track record for flipping proven talent and developing the young players they acquire in return. However, that has not been the case for Christopher Morel, who has had a disappointing season with a minus-0.6 WAR. Morel, who came to the Rays from the Cubs last year in the swap for Isaac Paredes, has 18 walks and 88 strikeouts in 241 plate appearances in 2025. — Olney
Record: 58-62
Previous ranking: 20
Miami’s chances at making a wild-card run took a hit last week when it batted .218 as a team with two home runs over a span of six games. The Marlins lost five of them, including a crushing doubleheader sweep by the Braves over the weekend. Game 2 was the killer, as the Marlins led 4-0 before falling 8-6. In those six games, Kyle Stowers went 2-for-21 (.095) as Miami ranked 27th in OPS for the week. It helped drop them further behind the other NL wild-card teams. — Rogers
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 21
Geraldo Perdomo has quietly been among the game’s best shortstops over the past four years, and now he’s in the midst of his best season. The switch-hitting 25-year-old boasts a .955 OPS since the start of July, putting his slash line up to .286/.386/.443 this season. Combine that with his typically solid defense and opportunistic baserunning, and Perdomo already compiled 4.7 FanGraphs WAR, ranked eighth among position players. It’s clear why the D-backs gave him a four-year, $45 million extension earlier this year — despite the presence of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. — Gonzalez
Record: 59-62
Previous ranking: 22
Zach Neto homered twice against the Dodgers on Monday, then turned a triple play against Shohei Ohtani in what amounted to a massive momentum shift in another Angels victory Tuesday. The latter, Neto said, was the highlight. It accounted for the first triple play of his life, and it came against one of the game’s best players. “It was pretty special,” said Neto, who was perfectly positioned to catch Ohtani’s line drive up the middle, then stepped on second base and fired to first, all in a matter of roughly three seconds. The Angels once again don’t have much to play for this season, but they completed a sweep of the Dodgers on Wednesday and finished 6-0 against their crosstown rivals this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-63
Previous ranking: 23
With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, rival GMs believe that Minnesota was never actually open to the idea of trading right-hander Joe Ryan. With the Twins’ announcement that they’ll be adding new minority owners, there will be questions about whether Ryan can be locked down to a long-term deal, but even if that doesn’t happen, his trade value will continue to be sky-high, assuming he stays healthy, into the offseason. Cast against the landscape of a relatively thin free agent starting pitching class, he’d be in high demand from contenders. — Olney
Record: 54-66
Previous ranking: 24
A rival executive mused last week about Baltimore’s thin pitching and saturation of position player prospects. “The Orioles should have Garrett Crochet,” he said, noting how well Baltimore matched up with what the White Sox reportedly were looking for in a Crochet trade. This is just one what-if in a long list of what-ifs as the Orioles begin the process of building a pitching staff for 2026. — Olney
Record: 52-68
Previous ranking: 25
If the Braves are going to quickly return to contender status next season, they’ll need Spencer Strider at his best. That hasn’t been the case in his first season back after undergoing elbow surgery. Strider has given up 13 runs in 8⅔ innings this month after having an OK July where he threw two quality starts in five outings. We’ll see where his fastball velocity is next spring, but right now, it’s down 3 mph from 2022, 2 mph from 2023 and 1 mph from before his injury. Can he be successful at 95 mph rather than 98 mph? — Rogers
Record: 54-69
Previous ranking: 26
The A’s still have a lot of work to do to become competitive again, but their offense is legitimately promising. And one of the many reasons for that is Shea Langeliers, the 27-year-old catcher who slumped through the first two months of the season but has been one of the game’s best hitters in recent weeks. Since the All-Star break, Langeliers ranks second in the majors with a 1.227 OPS — just behind his teammate, Nick Kurtz, at 1.249 — and has accumulated 12 home runs, tied with Kyle Schwarber for tops in the sport. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-71
Previous ranking: 27
When will the misery end for Pirates fans? They’ve lost five in a row, including a Paul Skenes start in which Milwaukee beat them 14-0 on Tuesday. Pittsburgh’s problem is the same as it has always been: It can’t hit. Consider this: The Pirates have hit a major league-worst 86 home runs, which is 17 less than the Padres, who rank 29th. And it’s an astounding 105 home runs behind the Yankees, who lead MLB. Without more power next season, Pittsburgh will land right back where it is now … in last place in the division. — Rogers
Record: 44-77
Previous ranking: 28
The only member of the White Sox organization under contract for 2026 is Andrew Benintendi, for $17.1 million. Otherwise, moving forward, the White Sox have almost no payroll obligations. This made it easy for them to bet on the upside of Luis Robert Jr. and keep him through the deadline; presumably, they will pick up his $20 million option in the winter, and they’ll continue to hope that Robert’s potential fully manifests. — Olney
Record: 48-72
Previous ranking: 29
Somehow the Nationals do not have the worst ERA in baseball since the All-Star break despite looking horrendous on the mound. Their struggles there have affected every part of their pitching staff — MacKenzie Gore gave up eight runs in a recent start, Jake Irvin gave up six and Mitchell Parker gave up five. Washington feels like it’s playing out the string on the mound as the staff has given up 80 runs in eight losses this month. The team needs some overhauling in the offseason, starting with a new general manager and manager. — Rogers
Record: 32-88
Previous ranking: 30
August is only 14 days old and it already includes an eight-game losing streak for the Rockies. The Rockies have suffered through five eight-game losing streaks this season. Their run differential is a whopping minus-326, more than double that of the second-worst team (the Nationals at minus-148). And of their remaining 13 series, seven will come against teams that will likely be in the playoffs this year, including three against the Dodgers and Padres. With a little more than six weeks remaining, the Rockies are on pace for 119 losses, two shy of the modern-day record set by the 2024 White Sox. It’s going to be close. — Gonzalez
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Alden Gonzalez
ANAHEIM, Calif. — It was only six weeks ago, on July 3, that the Los Angeles Dodgers held a nine-game lead in the National League West, with their 12th division title in 13 years seen as a foregone conclusion. They have since won only 12 of 33 games.
Now, after being swept by the neighboring Los Angeles Angels, the Dodgers find themselves trailing the San Diego Padres — the team they will host for a highly anticipated series this weekend — by one game.
“Obviously, it doesn’t feel good to fall into second place and to lose a lot of these games,” said Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani, speaking through an interpreter, after a 6-5 loss at Angel Stadium on Wednesday night. “We’re doing everything in our power, having close meetings, doing everything that we can to try to right the ship. We just have to do a better job.”
Ohtani led off Wednesday’s game with a triple, igniting a three-run first inning, then took the mound with his sights set on completing five innings for the first time since coming back from a second repair of an ulnar collateral ligament. Ohtani held a 5-2 lead entering the bottom of the fifth and struck out Luis Rengifo. But the Angels countered with three consecutive one-out hits, trimming their deficit to one and forcing Ohtani to exit after a season-high 80 pitches.
A bullpen that has as many as six high-leverage relievers on the injured list at the moment proceeded to give up a lead for the second straight night, this time courtesy of a bases-loaded, two-run single from Logan O’Hoppe in the eighth inning. And a Dodgers offense that has put up only a .661 OPS since Independence Day, seventh worst in the majors, couldn’t make up for it.
The Dodgers lost all six meetings against the Angels this season and now find themselves in the midst of a four-game skid. They have fallen out of first place in the NL West for the first time since April 27.
“I think we’re constantly giving ourselves chances to win,” Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts said. “Right now, that’s what we can ask for. Obviously, we’d love to win all these games, but it just wasn’t in the cards, so we’ve just got to turn the page and get ready for San Diego.”
When the Padres arrive at Dodger Stadium on Friday, it will mark the latest in a season they have held sole possession of first place in the NL West since Sept. 25, 2010, according to ESPN Research. The Padres are on a five-game winning streak, buoyed by the recent health of their starting rotation and emboldened by the trade-deadline moves of their aggressive general manager, A.J. Preller, who landed a standout closer (Mason Miller), a starting catcher (Freddy Fermin) and two impact bats (Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano) on July 31.
The last time the Dodgers and Padres faced off, eight batters were hit over the course of four games, including both Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. on back-to-back nights. The finale was marked by a benches-clearing incident in which Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and Padres manager Mike Shildt nearly came to blows.
Betts, though, tried to downplay the urgency of the upcoming series, which will be followed by three more games Aug. 22-24 in San Diego.
“It’s big,” he said, “but it kind of is what it is. We can’t make it more than what it is. It’s another series in August. Obviously, we all know it’s big and X, Y and Z, but we can’t make it that way. We have to just look at it as the same game as today and play our game and not try to get too high or too low.”
Wednesday’s outing marked the first time Ohtani pitched as an opponent at Angel Stadium and the first time he faced Mike Trout since striking him out to solidify a championship in the 2023 World Baseball Classic for Team Japan. Ohtani struck Trout out looking both times Wednesday — first with a backdoor sweeper then with a 101 mph fastball on the outside corner — and later called Angel Stadium “one of my favorite stadiums to play in.”
Ohtani’s start was clouded by more controversy, occurring two days after news surfaced that he and his agent, CAA’s Nez Balelo, are being sued by a Hawaii real estate investor and broker claiming they got them fired from a $240 million luxury-housing development that Ohtani had been brought in to endorse.
Asked whether the lawsuit had been a distraction, Ohtani said: “I’m focused on what the team is doing and doing everything in my power to make sure we bring a W on the field.”
MILWAUKEE — Brandon Woodruff has pitched some of the most important games in Brewers history, but even he felt some additional pressure as he took the mound Wednesday afternoon against the Pirates.
Not only would a victory maintain his perfect record on the season and extend the Brewers’ winning streak to 12 games, free hamburgers for the entire city of Milwaukee were on the line.
“I was nervous,” Woodruff said. “There was a little bit more at stake today. I wanted to win those burgers bad. Who doesn’t want a free burger?”
The Brewers beat the Pirates 12-5 on Wednesday to extend their winning streak to 12 games.
Local restaurant chain George Webb has been promising free burgers if the local baseball team won 17 consecutive games for decades, starting way back when Milwaukee was home to the minor league Brewers of the old American Association.
The promotion dropped to 13 games by the time the Braves made Milwaukee a big league city in 1953, but that franchise couldn’t make it happen before departing for Atlanta in 1966.
George Webb changed the promotion to 12 games when the Brewers moved from Seattle in 1970. In 1987, the Brewers opened the season with 13 wins in a row. More than 170,000 burgers were given away to mark the occasion.
The Brewers accomplished the feat a second time in 2018. They closed the regular season with eight regular-season victories followed by four playoff wins. Milwaukee has come close on a few occasions since, including an 11-game winning streak earlier this season.
George Webb will announce details of the giveaway Thursday afternoon.
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