The five factors that could help Michigan win the national title
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The mood inside Michigan’s Crisler Center media room late Saturday afternoon was equally reflective and forward-looking.
Michigan had beaten rival Ohio State and won the Big Ten East. The division title didn’t come as a surprise, given the strong roster the Wolverines returned in 2023, but it continued a historic season. This was the first time Michigan had beaten its rival three straight times since 1997, the program’s last national championship season.
As the Wolverines return to the Big Ten championship game for the third consecutive year, they have national championship aspirations again.
Safety Rod Moore‘s diving interception of an underthrown pass by Ohio State’s Kyle McCord secured Michigan’s 30-24 win Saturday and ensured a return to Indianapolis. But the twists and turns of Michigan’s journey have made this season stand apart from the school’s past two championship runs.
“It’s been a lot,” quarterback J.J. McCarthy said.
Michigan won six of its 12 games without coach Jim Harbaugh on the sideline because of two separate suspensions. The program has been under intense scrutiny since mid-October, when the NCAA began investigating an off-campus scouting/signal-stealing operation led by former staff member Connor Stalions. There have also been standard obstacles, like injuries to key starters — guard Zak Zinter, cornerback Will Johnson — in the Ohio State game. But whether self-created or not, Michigan found ways to navigate whatever obstacles fell in its path, reaching 1,001 all-time wins.
“No one cried, no one whined,” running back Blake Corum said. “It was like, ‘OK, this is what we have to do.’ The job has to get done, no matter what.”
And there’s still work left to do as Michigan faces No. 17 Iowa this coming Saturday. A win would give the Wolverines three straight outright Big Ten championships for the first time in team history.
“It’s been a tremendous season, right in the exact position that we hoped for, that we worked so hard to be in,” Harbaugh said Sunday. “It’s onward now. We’ve accomplished many of our goals, but not all of them yet.”
Here are five factors that helped Michigan complete its journey back to Indianapolis and could help the Wolverines finally win an elusive national title.
1. A veteran-laden roster that doesn’t flinch, starting with QB McCarthy
The experience of this Michigan team has been especially important given Harbaugh’s suspension and the intense media scrutiny on the program. Almost every position group boasts numerous players with significant starts or notable field time. Even after a devastating injury like Zinter’s against Ohio State, Michigan responded by moving fifth-year lineman Karsen Barnhart to right guard and then sliding in Trente Jones, another fifth-year player, to Barnhart’s spot at tackle. The offense continued to move.
“We’re always talking about the six best guys, the five best guys, whoever it is,” said Sherrone Moore, who oversees the line.
McCarthy’s savvy has stood out this season as Michigan has asked different things of him than in 2022, when the team rode running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. After an excellent start — he had 2,134 pass yards with 18 touchdowns on 75.7% completions through Michigan’s first nine games — he didn’t attempt a pass down the stretch against Penn State, as the Wolverines called 32 consecutive runs. Then, after a shaky performance last week at Maryland, McCarthy executed a precision passing game to near perfection against Ohio State, completing 16 of 20 attempts for 148 yards and a thread-the-needle touchdown to Roman Wilson. He completed 12 of 12 passes of 5 yards or less, and recorded his fifth game with at least 80% completions, tying Oregon’s Bo Nix for most in the FBS. His mobility also stood out against a fast Buckeyes defense.
“I told him before the game: ‘Listen, when the game matters in some critical situations, I’m going to put the ball in your hands, because I know you’re going to make a great decision,'” Moore said. “I know where his mindset is at, especially on those critical downs.”
2. Moore’s growth as a coach
Harbaugh has generally hired good staff members at Michigan. Several of his ex-assistants have moved on to head-coaching positions or to the NFL. His 2023 staff projected well, especially with two up-and-coming coordinators in Jesse Minter, a Broyles Award finalist in 2022, and Moore. Back in late spring, Michigan had no idea how much of the season Harbaugh would miss and how much it would have to rely on the rest of the coaching staff in his absence.
Although the 37-year-old Moore has never been a head coach and only became a coordinator in 2021, he was the clear choice to lead Michigan on game days during the stretch run. Moore took a necessary conservative approach in an emotionally charged game against Penn State, which has an aggressive defense filled with NFL-level talent, but an offense that was not set up to truly challenge Michigan. He got Michigan through a shaky performance against Maryland, in which the Wolverines needed scores in all three phases to overcome the Terrapins.
Before the Ohio State game, Harbaugh had two messages for Moore: Love you and be you. The latter meant: make more aggressive play calls. Moore kept the offense on the field for three fourth-down opportunities and converted each time, including twice on a 14-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that put Michigan up 14-3 in the second quarter. He also opened the fourth quarter with a halfback pass, as Edwards found tight end Colston Loveland for 34 yards, and mixed in Alex Orji as a “change-up” quarterback and got a 20-yard run.
“Coach Moore said from the get-go that he’s going to call the most aggressive game he’s ever called,” McCarthy said. “For the big boys, for Blake, for myself, it’s music to our ears, just knowing that he has confidence in us to go get that extra yard or go get that 2 yards. It means the world because that’s who we are.”
Harbaugh said Ohio State’s defense was the best he had seen, and Michigan’s game plan required creativity.
“Not a thing I would have changed in the way he called that game and the decisions he made in that kind of environment, that kind of pressure,” Harbaugh said.
Moore’s 3-0 Big Ten stretch without Harbaugh showed that he’s ready to lead his own program. Given the uncertainty about Harbaugh’s future — Harbaugh has interviewed for NFL jobs each of the past two winters, and likely will face another NCAA suspension if he returns to Michigan in 2024 — Moore has emerged as a very capable option to take over at Michigan, whenever that day comes.
3. A defensive front with few stars but plenty of depth
When Michigan broke through in 2021, winning its first Big Ten title in 17 years, its frontman was defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. He shined down the stretch, becoming the Heisman Trophy runner-up and cementing himself as a top NFL draft pick. And Michigan has had plenty of other star defensive linemen during Harbaugh’s tenure — David Ojabo, Kwity Paye, Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich, Taco Charlton, Mazi Smith and Mike Morris.
The 2023 line might not be remembered for its big names, but it will be remembered for its depth, skill, experience and performances in big games. No Michigan defensive lineman has more than 5.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss or five quarterback hurries, but eight have at least 1.5 sacks and seven have multiple QB hurries.
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Sam Acho: Michigan’s defense the difference in win vs. Ohio State
Sam Acho breaks down the keys to Michigan’s victory over Ohio State and the Buckeyes’ chances of reaching the College Football Playoff.
There have been expected contributions from veterans such as tackle Kris Jenkins and end Jaylen Harrell, but sophomore Mason Graham has emerged into a surprise star — he’s tied for the team lead with 6.5 tackles for loss and has contributed three sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. The California native was an ESPN three-star recruit who originally committed to Boise State. And Josaiah Stewart, a Coastal Carolina transfer, has been a valuable addition on the edge.
Kenneth Grant, a 339-pound sophomore, has contributed 2.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hurries and 4 pass breakups, and drew national attention when he raced down Penn State running back Kaytron Allen, saving a possible touchdown and wowing Harbaugh and his teammates.
“We get ourselves just ready for the moment, and when that moment comes, we know what we’re going to do,” Graham said. “That’s a big part of our team in handling adversity.”
4. Those who stayed have positioned Michigan for more championships
The famous Bo Schembechler line that appears everywhere around Michigan’s program — “Those who stay will be champions” — has taken on new and added meaning. Michigan had several players pass up potential NFL opportunities to return for another run at a Big Ten title and the CFP. The “One More Year” fund, started by the Champions Circle NIL collective, helped the program retain standouts such as Corum, Zinter, Jenkins, offensive lineman Trevor Keegan and wide receiver Cornelius Johnson. Michigan also brought back other accomplished players, such as defensive back Mike Sainristil and linebacker Michael Barrett. The Wolverines had only three underclassmen enter the NFL draft — Smith, Morris and cornerback D.J. Turner.
All of Michigan’s returnees have made significant contributions this fall. Sainristil is an All-America candidate, recording five interceptions and five pass breakups, while Barrett leads the team in both forced fumbles (three) and fumble recoveries (two). Johnson recorded his third consecutive season of 32 or more receptions. Zinter and Keegan have anchored a line for a remarkably balanced offense that averages 37.6 points per game.
Although Corum’s overall rushing production (976 yards) doesn’t match what he did last season (1,463), he has gained the most critical yards, setting a Michigan single-season record with 22 rushing touchdowns.
“I just look back and pray that I left a legacy, I stamped my mark here, I made a difference, on and off the field,” Corum said. “Looking back at [the Ohio State game], this is why I came back. I couldn’t go out in the Big House like I did last year, hurt. I’m so appreciative for the University of Michigan.”
5. Special teams remain solid
Michigan didn’t enter the season with many glaring concerns, but special teams carried some question marks after kicker Jake Moody and punter Brad Robbins both were selected in the NFL draft. The Wolverines became only the second team in the past 40 years to have two specialists picked in the same draft. Moody, the 2021 Lou Groza Award winner and Michigan’s career scoring leader, seemed to be a particularly big loss.
But the Wolverines have continued to shine in the kicking game. On Saturday against Ohio State, James Turner went 3-for-3 on field goals, including a 50-yarder early in the third quarter, while Ohio State’s Jayden Fielding missed from 52 yards out to end the first half. Tommy Doman averaged 63.3 yards per punt, placing one at the Ohio State 2-yard line late in the opening half.
“He was money,” Corum said of Turner. “He was calm, cool and collected, hit all of them. Couldn’t ask for a better kicker than my guy, so jolly good fellow to him.”
Turner, a Louisville transfer, is 12-for-14 on field goal attempts this season and 8-for-8 from within 40 yards. Doman averaged 45 yards per punt with 18 fair catches and 14 punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Although Michigan isn’t exceptional on returns, Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris have been a solid tandem on punt runbacks, and the coverage teams haven’t had any busts. The Wolverines’ special teams play shined at Maryland, as they blocked a punt for a safety and downed a Doman punt inside the Terrapins’ 1-yard line, leading to another late safety.
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Rachel Doerrie
The games are done for the top draft prospects; there is no hockey left to be played. A few players in the top 10 played until the last possible moment, making a lasting impression on scouts and executives at the Memorial Cup. With the combine taking place this week in Buffalo, New York, players will undergo physical testing and a rigorous interview process with interested teams. The combine allows teams to ask out-of-the-box questions, get a feel for the personalities of the players and, in some cases, understand the significance of injuries.
There is room for movement on the draft board because combine testing does impact model outputs. Furthermore, this list weighs scouting as 40% of the evaluation. The final ranking, which will be published June 23, will weigh scouting, projection, off-ice assessments and industry intel to varying degrees, which may see some players move up or down.
There are five parts of this set of rankings:
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The rank, which accounts for attributed value based on projection, the confidence of the projection and scouting.
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The NHL projection weighs the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%, and represents the most likely outcome for that player. The final edition of the rankings will include the player’s NHL ceiling.
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The NHL floor uses the same formula and represents the worst outcome, above 10% probability of occurring. If a player has a 4% chance of never playing NHL games and an 11% chance of becoming a fourth-line winger or No. 7 defenseman, then those projections will be used for NHL floor. For some players in the draft, the floor is outside of the NHL, perhaps the AHL or KHL.
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Projection confidence is based solely on the projection formula and forms two parts: confidence and volatility. The confidence has four tiers: High, fair, medium and low. This represents that confidence the model has that the player will reach the NHL projection for 200 or more NHL games. The level of confidence impacts the value of the player and, therefore, their rank. High confidence is above 80%, fair is 60% to 79%, medium is 35% to 59% and low is below 35%. The volatility has four categories: Low, slight, medium and high. Volatility relates to the range of outcomes a player has in their career. A player with a low volatility means there is a smaller range of outcomes for the NHL career, whether that is a No. 1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman, or third-line center to bottom-six forward. A player with high volatility has a wide range of outcomes, with relatively even distributions over the NHL projection. It could be related to a number of factors: the league they play in, their scoring if they changed leagues, injuries or a significant uptick/downturn in play. Many of these players are considered “raw” in their development curve.
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Strengths are each player’s standout abilities.
“Boom or bust” is an all-encompassing phrase with confidence and volatility. It means the player either hits their NHL projection or is unlikely to play 200 NHL games. The difference between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection is simple: It means injuries played a role in the projection, and the sample size makes it difficult to confidently project the player’s most likely outcome; or that the league in which the player plays does not have a successful history of producing NHL players.
One other consideration is the “Russian factor,” where skilled Russians are more likely to return to Russia if they fail to hit their NHL projection.
Here is how the top 64 prospects line up according to my model:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
NHL projection: No. 1 defenseman
NHL floor: Top-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL projection: Elite No. 1 center
NHL floor: Second-line winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
NHL projection: First-line center
NHL floor: Second-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-line power forward
NHL floor: Middle-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Top-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Third-line checking center
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL projection: Second-line center
NHL floor: Third-line scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
NHL projection: First-line scoring center
NHL floor: Injury-shortened career
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, quick release, size
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL projection: Top-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill
9. Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
NHL projection: Top-six playmaking center
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
NHL projection: Top-four defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six power forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
NHL projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair transition defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-line versatile forward
NHL floor: Third-line checker
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
NHL projection: Second-pair transition defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Gap control, mobility, transition play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL projection: Top-four transition defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defensive defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
NHL projection: Top-six forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 1 starting goaltender
NHL floor: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair offensive specialist
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line power forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line forward
NHL floor: NHL depth player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six playmaker
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
NHL projection: Third-line power forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Third-line scoring depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
NHL projection: Platoon starting goaltender
NHL floor: High-end NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defender
NHL floor: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Puck moving, gap control, creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line, two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL top-six center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL projection: Top-six power forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, transition offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Speed, transition play, motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
NHL projection: Middle-six physical forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical forward
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL top-six forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, defensive play, motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical presence
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, wall play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six defensive center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, size, defensive play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill
59. Haoxi “Simon” Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, transition defense
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking winger
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
NHL projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL floor: Reliable NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth
NHL floor: AHL top-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor
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